UFC 246: MCGREGOR vs COWBOY | Bet Pack Review

UFC 246: MCGREGOR vs COWBOY | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Ode Osbourne  to Win -137
+ Maycee Barber  to Win by TKO/KO -160
ODDS: +181
BET: 10u
RETURN: 28.11u

 

BET #2
+ Andre Fili  to Win +133
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win +125
ODDS: +424
BET: 8u
RETURN: 41.94u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Donald Cerrone  to Win +289
ODDS: +289
BET: 6u
RETURN: 23.34u

 

BET #2
+ Aleksa Camur  to Win -107
+ Aleksei Oleinik  to Win +113
ODDS: +312
BET: 5u
RETURN: 24.72u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Askar Askarov  to Win -137
+ J.J. Aldrich  to Win -102
ODDS: +243
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.7u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Aleksei Oleinik  to Win Inside the Distance +150
ODDS: +150
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10u

 

BET #2
+ J.J. Aldrich  to Win by Decision +160
+ Nasrat Haqparast   to Win by Decision +110
ODDS:
BET:
RETURN:

 

BET #3
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win by Decision +175
ODDS: +175
BET: 3
RETURN: 8.25u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Ode Osbourne  to Win -137
+ Maycee Barber  to Win by TKO/KO -160
+ Andre Fili  to Win +133
ODDS: +555
BET: 8u
RETURN: 52.4u

 

BET #2
+ Ode Osbourne  to Win -137
+ Maycee Barber  to Win by TKO/KO -160
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win +125
ODDS: +533
BET: 8u
RETURN: 50.6u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Aleksa Camur  to Win -107
+ Donald Cerrone  to Win +289
+ Aleksei Oleinik  to Win +113
ODDS: +1503
BET: 6u
RETURN: 96.18u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Askar Askarov  to Win -137
+ J.J. Aldrich  to Win -102
+ Maycee Barber  to Win by TKO/KO -160
ODDS: +457
BET: 5u
RETURN: 27.84u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Aleksei Oleinik  to Win Inside the Distance +150
+ Ode Osbourne  to Win Inside the Distance +150
+ Askar Askarov  to Win -137
ODDS: +981
BET: 4u
RETURN: 43.25u

BET #2
+ J.J. Aldrich  to Win by Decision +160
+ Nasrat Haqparast   to Win by Decision +110
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win by Decision +175
ODDS: +1402
BET: 4u
RETURN: 60.06u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Donald Cerrone $6800
+ Aleksei Oleinik $7800
+ Maycee Barber $9500
+ Ode Osbourne $8600
+ Aleksa Camur $8800
+ Andre Fili $7700

Spares

+ Askar Askarov $8700
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Conor McGregor -295 vs Donald Cerrone +289

  • Cerrone isn’t getting a lot respect here and I understand it, but we also need to capitalize here. Cerrone opened around +130 and the public has bet the former Champ-Champ into a heavy dog position. I like it. Cerrone is physically more suited to fight at 170 and the layoff scenario for Conor is not ideal either. If this fight lasts into round 2 and beyond that is a huge advantage for Cowboy. Look for Donald to eventually get in a position to utilize his sub game.
  • Silver Play for Cerrone.
  • Consider live betting Cowboy after Round 1, even if he is losing. The odds will be further against him, but the scenario will be better.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play

DK Lineup:

  • Cerrone is affordable and multi-faceted finisher. He also has the tools to exploit Conor’s submission defense. Including him allows you to spend heavily elsewhere. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Holly Holm -130 vs Raquel Pennington +125

  • We are getting a rematch and a post-title fight letdown scenario all wrapped into 1. Pennington is in a better spot both in the long term and the short term. She was a big dog at the open, +230, so we have lost some value there, but I am still willing to get in on her here.
  • Originally, I was on the fence regarding Silver or Gold, but with the Gadelha/Grasso fight off- Gold Play for Rocky.
  • I plan to record the post-title fight scenarios moving forward. Let’s track those numbers starting with 2 fights tonight.

Prop Bet:

  • Raquel Pennington to Win by Decision +175
  • Pennington has gone the distance in 5 of her last 6 fights with her only non-decision ending late in round 5. Holm is coming off a finish so she will fight more defensively. Their first fight went the distance, this one will too.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Maurice Greene -124 vs Aleksei Oleinik +113

  • The age gap is huge in favour of Greene. The experience favours Oleinik. Greene’s striking D is suspect and is submission D will be worse. Oleinik needs to make this ugly and either test his chin or get him to the floor. Maybe both. I think he can. AO opened as -180 favourtie and is now the dog. That is good value for us.
  • Silver play for Aleksei

Prop Bet:

  • Aleksei Oleinik to Win Inside the Distance +150
  • I would look at the sub, but Greene could go down before they hit the floor. The surprising reach of AO will play a factor here. Keep any finish on the books for us.

DK Lineup:

  • At $7800, Aleksei is cheap and almost always wins by finish. I have him winning this fight. That is enough for me. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Claudia Gadelha -110 vs Alexa Grasso +104
  • Cancelled

Prop Bet:

  • Cancelled

DK Lineup:

  • Cancelled

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Diego Ferreira -215 vs Anthony Pettis +210

  • This is a step up for Ferreira in quality of competition and he is too big a favourite to consider laying down some cash. Pettis could and can stop him with one shot. He was playable earlier in the week around -170, but this is a no play now.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Maycee Barber -785 vs Roxanne Modafferi +700

  • The line is clearly too wide to consider and I don’t think Roxy is even worth a look. Pass.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Yup. Barber has finished all of her UFC opponents and Modafferi is finishable for sure. I think Barber puts a physical pace on her she can’t withstand. With the cash we save on a couple of our cheaper plays we can go all in here. Add her.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Andre Fili +133 vs Sodiq Yusuff -137

  • This is a big fight for both men. The line and crept down on Fili with a drop from +170 to +115 on some sites. Yusuff has looked good in his short stint in the UFC, but he faced his first signs of controversy in his last bout. Fili hasn’t been as consistent, but he has faced better competition. I like the longer, more varied, and more experienced Fili to get the nod here.
  • Fili is a Gold play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • At sub-$8000 Fili can finish, he works decent volume, and can land takedowns. He offers a lot. Yusuff got hurt last time out and similar struggles against a better opponent could be ahead of him. Fili is in.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Askar Askarov -137 vs Tim Elliott +128

  • AA was nearly -200 when he opened which was unattractive for a sophomore fighter. Elliott is a tough fighter to prepare for. His pressure and reckless nature is both a curse and a blessing. It will be a curse here. Askarov is opportunistic on the mat and has power on the feet. I like him to get the better in almost all positions.
  • Bronze play for Askarov.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • AA is a spare. He has submission skills and Elliott is vulnerable on the mat. I would expect that if Elliot slips up, AA will capitalize. Add him in where needed to mix things up.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Drew Dober +284 vs Nasrat Haqparast -326

  • This is a dog or No Play type scenario. Dober is way better than these lines suggest. Regardless, this is a fun fight. Sit back and enjoy.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Nasrat Haqparast to Win by Decision +110
  • Dober is a tough out and while Haqparast was a finisher on the regional scene and is coming off a knockout win- he hasn’t shown it enough on the UFC level. This one goes the distance.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Aleksa Camur -107 vs Justin Ledet +100

  • Ledet just hasn’t been there at LHW getting smashed over a full 15-minutes and in just 15-seconds. Camur will have the speed advantage and his aggression will be a lot for Ledet. I wanted to see Justin go back to HW after the Walker fight. I guess not. The Contenders series fighters are putting up a pretty good fight.
  • Camur is a Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • I was tempted to play a finish prop here, but debuting finishers tend to hit a wall. I will pass here.

DK Lineup:

  • From a betting perspective, I want the win any way we can get it. From a Fantasy pers[ective, I think we could get a finish. It is worth a look when having to choose from/ compare to other options. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Brian Kelleher +128 vs Ode Osbourne -137

  • This bout got booted up to the main card. I still like Osbourne and expect that he will rise to the occasion. Similar to the fight above- I am favouring these new up and comers picked by the UFC to rise up and dethrone a faltering veteran. Kelleher is too reckless and Osbourne will make him pay.
  • I will take a risk and bump this fight up- Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • Ode is a finisher and that is what we are looking for. It makes him more valuable know that Kelleher is vulnerable to getting finished. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

J.J. Aldrich -102 vs Sabina Mazo -105

  • The opening fight of the night could be close and I have heard a lot of divided opinions. Mazo looked better in her last fight but against and inexperienced and inactive opponent. Aldrich has looked good against serviceable opposition. I think she can replicate the struggles that Mazo had in her debut. the line did open slightly in favour of Aldrich so the money is moving in the right direction. Close fight.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • This fight is going the distance. Not ideal for a Fantasy team.
  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

 

Confidence List

1. Maycee Barber -785

2. Nasrat Haqparast -326

3. Raquel Pennington +125

4. Diego Ferreira -215

5. Andre Fili +133

====================

6. Ode Osbourne -137

7. Aleksa Camur -107

8. J.J. Aldrich -102

9. Donald Cerrone +289

10. Aleksei Oleinik +113

11. Askar Askarov -137

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Raquel Pennington +125

2. Andre Fili +133

3. Donald Cerrone +289

4. Aleksei Oleinik +113

5. J.J. Aldrich -102

 

Counter Bets

1. Drew Dober +284 – I still think both fighters lose, but the odds are off. Take a small shot on both.

2. Anthony Pettis +210 – See above.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

EPU Candidate(s)

1. J.J. Aldrich to Win by Decision +160

This is a solid play here and gets us a little more value on JJ. Mazo is a tough out and Aldrich isn’t known for her punching prowess. Could she get the finish? Potentially, but I like her to outwork her and take it on the cards.

2. Ode Osbourne to Win Inside the Distance +150

I wanted to play the Submission propr here, but let’s keep everything in play. Kelleher has been finished on multiple occasions and Osbourne knows how to put his opponents away. This bout was bounced to the main card, but it was originally placed here. Bet accordingly.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
5
6
7
1 of 7 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
72529%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

FPO Candidate

1. Maycee Barber to Win by TKO/KO -160[/T1]

I have seen this one as low as -150. I love it. I will fade the FPO here and look for Baber to continue to tear through her opponents. This will most likely be a Gold play.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
53260%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
32167%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Holly Holm -130 vs Raquel Pennington +125

2. Maurice Greene -124 vs Aleksei Oleinik +113

3. Andre Fili +133 vs Sodiq Yusuff -137

4. Askar Askarov -137 vs Tim Elliott +128

5. Aleksa Camur -107 vs Justin Ledet +100

6. Brian Kelleher +128 vs Ode Osbourne -137

7. J.J. Aldrich -102 vs Sabina Mazo -105

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
40192148%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
40192148%