When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Ode Osbourne
to Win
-137
+ Maycee Barber
to Win by TKO/KO
-160
ODDS:
+181
BET:
10u
RETURN:
28.11u
BET #2
+ Andre Fili
to Win
+133
+ Raquel Pennington
to Win
+125
ODDS:
+424
BET:
8u
RETURN:
41.94u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Donald Cerrone
to Win
+289
ODDS:
+289
BET:
6u
RETURN:
23.34u
BET #2
+ Aleksa Camur
to Win
-107
+ Aleksei Oleinik
to Win
+113
ODDS:
+312
BET:
5u
RETURN:
24.72u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Askar Askarov
to Win
-137
+ J.J. Aldrich
to Win
-102
ODDS:
+243
BET:
4u
RETURN:
13.7u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Aleksei Oleinik
to Win Inside the Distance
+150
ODDS:
+150
BET:
3u
RETURN:
10u
BET #2
+ J.J. Aldrich
to Win by Decision
+160
+ Nasrat Haqparast
to Win by Decision
+110
ODDS:
BET:
RETURN:
BET #3
+ Raquel Pennington
to Win by Decision
+175
ODDS:
+175
BET:
3
RETURN:
8.25u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Ode Osbourne
to Win
-137
+ Maycee Barber
to Win by TKO/KO
-160
+ Andre Fili
to Win
+133
ODDS:
+555
BET:
8u
RETURN:
52.4u
BET #2
+ Ode Osbourne
to Win
-137
+ Maycee Barber
to Win by TKO/KO
-160
+ Raquel Pennington
to Win
+125
ODDS:
+533
BET:
8u
RETURN:
50.6u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Aleksa Camur
to Win
-107
+ Donald Cerrone
to Win
+289
+ Aleksei Oleinik
to Win
+113
ODDS:
+1503
BET:
6u
RETURN:
96.18u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Askar Askarov
to Win
-137
+ J.J. Aldrich
to Win
-102
+ Maycee Barber
to Win by TKO/KO
-160
ODDS:
+457
BET:
5u
RETURN:
27.84u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Aleksei Oleinik
to Win Inside the Distance
+150
+ Ode Osbourne
to Win Inside the Distance
+150
+ Askar Askarov
to Win
-137
ODDS:
+981
BET:
4u
RETURN:
43.25u
BET #2
+ J.J. Aldrich
to Win by Decision
+160
+ Nasrat Haqparast
to Win by Decision
+110
+ Raquel Pennington
to Win by Decision
+175
ODDS:
+1402
BET:
4u
RETURN:
60.06u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Donald Cerrone
$6800
+ Aleksei Oleinik
$7800
+ Maycee Barber
$9500
+ Ode Osbourne
$8600
+ Aleksa Camur
$8800
+ Andre Fili
$7700
Spares
+ Askar Askarov
$8700
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Conor McGregor -295 vs Donald Cerrone +289
Cerrone isn’t getting a lot respect here and I understand it, but we also need to capitalize here. Cerrone opened around +130 and the public has bet the former Champ-Champ into a heavy dog position. I like it. Cerrone is physically more suited to fight at 170 and the layoff scenario for Conor is not ideal either. If this fight lasts into round 2 and beyond that is a huge advantage for Cowboy. Look for Donald to eventually get in a position to utilize his sub game.
Silver Play for Cerrone.
Consider live betting Cowboy after Round 1, even if he is losing. The odds will be further against him, but the scenario will be better.
Prop Bet:
No Play
DK Lineup:
Cerrone is affordable and multi-faceted finisher. He also has the tools to exploit Conor’s submission defense. Including him allows you to spend heavily elsewhere. Add him.
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Holly Holm -130 vs Raquel Pennington +125
We are getting a rematch and a post-title fight letdown scenario all wrapped into 1. Pennington is in a better spot both in the long term and the short term. She was a big dog at the open, +230, so we have lost some value there, but I am still willing to get in on her here.
Originally, I was on the fence regarding Silver or Gold, but with the Gadelha/Grasso fight off- Gold Play for Rocky.
I plan to record the post-title fight scenarios moving forward. Let’s track those numbers starting with 2 fights tonight.
Prop Bet:
Raquel Pennington to Win by Decision +175
Pennington has gone the distance in 5 of her last 6 fights with her only non-decision ending late in round 5. Holm is coming off a finish so she will fight more defensively. Their first fight went the distance, this one will too.
DK Lineup:
No Play
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Maurice Greene -124 vs Aleksei Oleinik +113
The age gap is huge in favour of Greene. The experience favours Oleinik. Greene’s striking D is suspect and is submission D will be worse. Oleinik needs to make this ugly and either test his chin or get him to the floor. Maybe both. I think he can. AO opened as -180 favourtie and is now the dog. That is good value for us.
Silver play for Aleksei
Prop Bet:
Aleksei Oleinik to Win Inside the Distance +150
I would look at the sub, but Greene could go down before they hit the floor. The surprising reach of AO will play a factor here. Keep any finish on the books for us.
DK Lineup:
At $7800, Aleksei is cheap and almost always wins by finish. I have him winning this fight. That is enough for me. Add him.
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Claudia Gadelha -110 vs Alexa Grasso +104
Cancelled
Prop Bet:
Cancelled
DK Lineup:
Cancelled
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Diego Ferreira -215 vs Anthony Pettis +210
This is a step up for Ferreira in quality of competition and he is too big a favourite to consider laying down some cash. Pettis could and can stop him with one shot. He was playable earlier in the week around -170, but this is a no play now.
Prop Bet:
No Play
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Maycee Barber -785 vs Roxanne Modafferi +700
The line is clearly too wide to consider and I don’t think Roxy is even worth a look. Pass.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
Yup. Barber has finished all of her UFC opponents and Modafferi is finishable for sure. I think Barber puts a physical pace on her she can’t withstand. With the cash we save on a couple of our cheaper plays we can go all in here. Add her.
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Andre Fili +133 vs Sodiq Yusuff -137
This is a big fight for both men. The line and crept down on Fili with a drop from +170 to +115 on some sites. Yusuff has looked good in his short stint in the UFC, but he faced his first signs of controversy in his last bout. Fili hasn’t been as consistent, but he has faced better competition. I like the longer, more varied, and more experienced Fili to get the nod here.
Fili is a Gold play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
At sub-$8000 Fili can finish, he works decent volume, and can land takedowns. He offers a lot. Yusuff got hurt last time out and similar struggles against a better opponent could be ahead of him. Fili is in.
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Askar Askarov -137 vs Tim Elliott +128
AA was nearly -200 when he opened which was unattractive for a sophomore fighter. Elliott is a tough fighter to prepare for. His pressure and reckless nature is both a curse and a blessing. It will be a curse here. Askarov is opportunistic on the mat and has power on the feet. I like him to get the better in almost all positions.
Bronze play for Askarov.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
AA is a spare. He has submission skills and Elliott is vulnerable on the mat. I would expect that if Elliot slips up, AA will capitalize. Add him in where needed to mix things up.
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Drew Dober +284 vs Nasrat Haqparast -326
This is a dog or No Play type scenario. Dober is way better than these lines suggest. Regardless, this is a fun fight. Sit back and enjoy.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Nasrat Haqparast to Win by Decision +110
Dober is a tough out and while Haqparast was a finisher on the regional scene and is coming off a knockout win- he hasn’t shown it enough on the UFC level. This one goes the distance.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Aleksa Camur -107 vs Justin Ledet +100
Ledet just hasn’t been there at LHW getting smashed over a full 15-minutes and in just 15-seconds. Camur will have the speed advantage and his aggression will be a lot for Ledet. I wanted to see Justin go back to HW after the Walker fight. I guess not. The Contenders series fighters are putting up a pretty good fight.
Camur is a Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
I was tempted to play a finish prop here, but debuting finishers tend to hit a wall. I will pass here.
DK Lineup:
From a betting perspective, I want the win any way we can get it. From a Fantasy pers[ective, I think we could get a finish. It is worth a look when having to choose from/ compare to other options. Add him.
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Brian Kelleher +128 vs Ode Osbourne -137
This bout got booted up to the main card. I still like Osbourne and expect that he will rise to the occasion. Similar to the fight above- I am favouring these new up and comers picked by the UFC to rise up and dethrone a faltering veteran. Kelleher is too reckless and Osbourne will make him pay.
I will take a risk and bump this fight up- Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
Ode is a finisher and that is what we are looking for. It makes him more valuable know that Kelleher is vulnerable to getting finished. Add him.
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J.J. Aldrich -102 vs Sabina Mazo -105
The opening fight of the night could be close and I have heard a lot of divided opinions. Mazo looked better in her last fight but against and inexperienced and inactive opponent. Aldrich has looked good against serviceable opposition. I think she can replicate the struggles that Mazo had in her debut. the line did open slightly in favour of Aldrich so the money is moving in the right direction. Close fight.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
This fight is going the distance. Not ideal for a Fantasy team.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Counter Bets
1. Drew Dober +284 – I still think both fighters lose, but the odds are off. Take a small shot on both.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
This is a solid play here and gets us a little more value on JJ. Mazo is a tough out and Aldrich isn’t known for her punching prowess. Could she get the finish? Potentially, but I like her to outwork her and take it on the cards.
2. Ode Osbourne to Win Inside the Distance +150
I wanted to play the Submission propr here, but let’s keep everything in play. Kelleher has been finished on multiple occasions and Osbourne knows how to put his opponents away. This bout was bounced to the main card, but it was originally placed here. Bet accordingly.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Maycee Barber to Win by TKO/KO -160[/T1]
I have seen this one as low as -150. I love it. I will fade the FPO here and look for Baber to continue to tear through her opponents. This will most likely be a Gold play.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.