UFC 245: Usman vs Covington | Bet Pack Review

UFC 245: Usman vs Covington | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win -168
+ Max Holloway  to Win -160
ODDS: +159
BET: 10u
RETURN: 25.92u

 

BET #2
+ Kamaru Usman  to Win -164
+ Ketlen Vieira  to Win -175
ODDS: +153
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.24u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Germaine de Randamie  to Win +295
ODDS: +295
BET: 5u
RETURN: 19.75u

 

BET #2
+ Brandon Moreno  to Win +148
+ Omari Akhmedov  to Win +120
ODDS: +446
BET: 6u
RETURN: 32.74u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jose Aldo  to Win +185
ODDS: +185
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14.25u

 

BET #2
+ Ben Saunders to Win +297
ODDS: +297
BET: 4u
RETURN: 15.88u

 

BET #2
+ Oskar Piechota  to Win -115
+ Daniel Teymur  to Win +108
ODDS: +289
BET: 3u
RETURN: 11.67u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ketlen Vieira  to Win Inside the Distance +444
ODDS: +444
BET: 3u
RETURN: 16.32u

 

BET #2
+ Geoff Neal  to Win by Decision +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9u

BET #3
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win -168
+ Ketlen Vieira  to Win -175
+ Max Holloway  to Win -160
ODDS: +307
BET: 4u
RETURN: 16.29u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win -168
+ Max Holloway  to Win -160
+ Kamaru Usman  to Win -164
ODDS: +317
BET: 7u
RETURN: 29.21u

 

BET #2
+ Ketlen Vieira  to Win -175
+ Kamaru Usman  to Win -164
+ Max Holloway  to Win -160
ODDS: +311
BET: 7u
RETURN: 28.77u

BET #3
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win -168
+ Ketlen Vieira  to Win -175
+ Max Holloway  to Win -160
ODDS: +307
BET: 7u
RETURN: 28.51u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Brandon Moreno  to Win +148
+ Omari Akhmedov  to Win +120
+ Germaine de Randamie  to Win +295
ODDS: +2055
BET: 5u
RETURN: 107.76u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Ben Saunders to Win +297
+ Brandon Moreno  to Win +148
+ Geoff Neal  to Win -230
ODDS: +1313
BET: 4u
RETURN: 56.51u

 

BET #2
+ Oskar Piechota  to Win -115
+ Daniel Teymur  to Win +108
+ Omari Akhmedov  to Win +120
ODDS: +756
BET: 3u
RETURN: 25.67u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ketlen Vieira  to Win Inside the Distance +444
+ Geoff Neal  to Win by Decision +200
ODDS: +1532
BET: 4u
RETURN: 65.28u

 

BET #2
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win -168
+ Germaine de Randamie  to Win +295
+ Ketlen Vieira  to Win -175
+ Omari Akhmedov  to Win +120
ODDS: +2078
BET: 3u
RETURN: 65.35u

BET #3
+ Petr Yan  to Win by TKO/KO -115
+ Max Holloway  to Win -160
+ Kamaru Usman  to Win -164
+ Jose Aldo  to Win +185
ODDS: +1294
BET: 5u
RETURN: 69.69u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Max Holloway $8700
+ Geoff Neal  $9100
+ Germaine de Randamie $7000
+ Ben Saunders  $6900
+ Kamaru Usman $8900
+ Ketlen Vieira $8800

Spares

+ Omari Akhmedov $7800
+ Brandon Moreno $7700
+ Oskar Piechota $8000
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Kamaru Usman -164 vs Colby Covington +164

The line has been in absolute freefall since the open. Usman was sitting at a very lofty -300 before the public got involved. It has since steadily improved to a very playable -165 to -180 range, depending on your site. I like Usman to be more physical match Colby’s cardio edge which tends to be CC’s avenue to victory. In wrestling matches, take the stronger man- Gold play for Usman.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Usman also gets the call to the Fantasy lineup. He hits hard, but more importantly, carries a steady pace over 5 rounds with a 2-5 takedowns mixed in. That is a solid addition to our lineup.

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Max Holloway -160 vs Alexander Volkanovski +158

Not as drastic as of a drop as Usman’s, but we are still getting some value here. At -160, Max is a solid play. We are getting a pretty good return on Holloway compared to where most of his lines are. It is not the best, but it certainly is better than most of his previous lines. Volkanovski is a solid fighter himself, but the wins over Aldo and Mendes showed us nothing that would suggest he can overcome Holloway. Does he have power? Yes. But he will struggle to land and he is defensively vulnerable which will make it difficult for him to find success without a big connection. Max does what Max does best. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Max is a Fantasy player’s dream and getting him at $8700 is a great option. He throws with volume. He can finish with his hands. He can finish on the mat. If he wins this fight, he will score points for you one way or another. He has had 6 straight fights of 90+ points. Add him.

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Amanda Nunes -300 vs Germaine de Randamie +295

Upset Alert! I had Nunes at +100 in there first fight. I was all over GDR’s grappling deficiency. I like GDR to even the series here. GDR has put herself in a much better spot here with a pair of significant improvements. Her grappling based TDD is much better then before, if/when Nunes gets in close. Her clinch attack also makes it dangerous to get stuck here too long. Improvement #2 is how she is able to strike without opening herself up. She manages distance much better and doesn’t overextend as she did in the past. If GDR forces this fight to the feet, these are excellent odds. Nunes has taken out almost anyone, but it is very difficult to beat a fighter twice. I like GDR here as a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

GDR is a finisher- a natural finisher which is rare in WMMA. So is Nunes. Regardless, getting a fighter that can finish at this price is a great bargain and allows you to guy high elsewhere.

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Jose Aldo +185 vs Marlon Moraes -195

I really like Aldo here despite the obvious reason to fade him. Aldo looked much better at the weigh-ins than many expected which is huge. By cutting early and over a longer period of time his body has had time to adjust and he should be able to rehydrate nicely before the fight. More importantly, Moraes is coming off a title fight loss. I plan to post an article over the 3-week break that looks at this scenario more in-depth. Fighters coming off of title fight losses really struggle in their next bout. They aren’t nearly as motivated and/or sharp. That will show up here. Aldo knows he needs a win to make an immediate impact. This fight was much closer at the open. We are getting some solid value. The new weight class has me ranking this play as a Bronze Bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Moraes is a difficult fighter to put away. We can look elsewhere.

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Urijah Faber +415 vs Petr Yan -405

This is an easy pass for obvious reasons. If Faber pulls this one off, good for him.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I think Yan can get him out of there, but he is awfully expensive. I will look elsewhere.

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Geoff Neal -230 vs Mike Perry +204

Neal has look pretty scary so far, but Perry is dangerous and battle-tested. Neal’s W versus Price included a couple of rough patches that nearly cost him the fight. If Perry can crack him, he could certainly put him down. We haven’t see Mike have much success of late in the knockout department, so unless he bucks that trend he will need a complete performance from start to finish. Not his usual strength. Neals initial price was in the mid -100s which made him a high-end option. Not so much anymore. He is either a pass or a leg we can add to our Silver bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Neal is a proven finisher and while Perry is a tough out, he is hittable and he can be hurt. Look for Neal to put up some decent striking volume coupled with a few takedowns and a potential stoppage by either sub or knockout. Lots of options add him.

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Irene Aldana +158 vs Ketlen Vieira -175

Vieira would potentially by my #1 play if she wasn’t returning from such a long layoff. Aldana struggles with pressure. She slows down. And all of this is magnified when you put a capable grappler in front of here. Vieira is too physical for her and if/when she gets her hands on her lookout. KV was around the -245 at the open. We are getting a massive boost in value based on the public not going back and rechecking what Vieira brings to the table. Still a Gold play, but maybe not my #1 pick

Draft-Kings-Logo

The takedowns will be there. The hard GNP will be there. And the submission potential will also be present. Add her.

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Omari Akhmedov +120 vs Ian Heinisch -127

I faded Heinisch against Brunson and I am doing it here again.  A lot of people that are backing IH are doing so because of a false perception. They see Heinisch as having some otherworldly cardio. He doesn’t. His first 2 UFC opponents gassed hard as is there nature. This made him look better than he is. He gassed against Brunson in the 3rd and that sealed the deal. Omari has become much better at conserving energy and still being productive which is huge. He is also a takedown machine and Heinisch will give them up. This fight was nearly even at the start. We are getting a little value here on a matchup that many are misrepresenting. Silver play for the Russian.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Add Omari as a back-up play. He will produce points with his takedown totals and he could score a finish.

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Matt Brown -326 vs Ben Saunders +297

This play boils down to a pair of factors. Brown is returning off a long layoff. For an aging fighter that depends on durability and dishing out damage while taking it- that is not an ideal scenario. More importantly, Saunders has lost 3 in a row. We have seen time and time again, fighters down 3 return with a win. Brown did it against Sanchez and I am willing to bank on Saunders here. Saunders comes out strong and Brown is a little rusty- I will take that combination plus this level of return. Bronze play for Killa B.

Draft-Kings-Logo

If Saunders wins it will either be by body shot related TKO or submission. At $6900, if we get a finish here we are in great shape. We can pretty much do anything else we want with this price tag. Add him.

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Chase Hooper -110 vs Daniel Teymur +108

Hooper needs this fight on the mat. His wrestling is suspect and his height makes level changes even more difficult. Teymur looked much better in his last fight (3-fighting losing streak snapped) and if he can stay vertical he should be able to punish Hooper’s brutal striking defense. This is not my favourite pick on the card, Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t want to get too invested in this fight. There are more straightforward options elsewhere.

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Kai Kara-France -159 vs Brandon Moreno +148

The value on Moreno is on the rise. He was nearly even at the onset of fight week. He is a very good scrambler and aggressive on the fight- a combination of scenarios that will give KKF issues. The Aussie’s performances against both De La Rosa and Paiva were both narrow wins. Moreno is a little more battle-tested at this level and more dangerous in all areas. I feel like this is a pick’em fight at best so the near +150 line on Moreno is a good betting option. Silver Play.

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Moreno could snatch up a submission here or hurt KKF on the feet. He is another fighter that could be subbed into your lineup to create some diversity.

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Viviane Araujo -168 vs Jessica Eye +162

Eye missed weight badly. This is usually a bad sign if you are picking against the fighter that misses the weight. They seem to win a high percentage of their fights. Will that be the case here. I am more inclined to think this is a sign of Eye’s lack of focus in her post-title fight letdown scenario. Araujo is the more diverse fighter and should have a speed advantage. She is also in a much better spot mentally. Eye has had issues in close fights under good circumstances. That shows up here. Vivi is a Gold play in my books.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t see a finish here. Pass.

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Oskar Piechota -115 vs Punahele Soriano +103

Soriano is a wild brawler that has a single victory outside the opening round and has faced low-level competition. Those are some major red flags here. Piechota has lost 2 in a row so his stock is at its lowest in the UFC. Look for Oskar to capitalize on Soriano’s aggression, take him down, and grind on him. If he gets his back, he can finish or he could further tire him out on route to a later finish or decision win. I will take the more proven commodity here- Bronze play for Oskar.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Piechota is a finisher. Should be able to get in a spot to close this one out if they hit the floor. I like him as a backup option in your Fantasy Lineup.

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Confidence List

1. Petr Yan -405

2. Viviane Araujo -168

3. Max Holloway -160

4. Kamaru Usman -164

5. Ketlen Vieira -175

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6. Geoff Neal -230

7. Brandon Moreno +148

8. Omari Akhmedov +120

9. Germaine de Randamie +295

10. Jose Aldo +185

11. Oskar Piechota -115

12. Daniel Teymur +108

13. Ben Saunders +297

 

Value Bet List

1. Jose Aldo +185

2. Ben Saunders +297

3. Germaine de Randamie +295

4. Brandon Moreno +148

5. Omari Akhmedov +120

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Viviane Araujo/Jessica Eye

With Vivi currently ranked as a Gold play, I will keep this investment simple and back her by any way she can get the win. I expect that we see a decision win, but the knockout loss for Eye could impact her here. It is enough to stay away.

2. Oskar Piechota/Punahele Soriano Total Rounds Under 1.5 +130

Soriano has finished all but 1 of his wins inside the opening round and Piechota has a solid finishing rate. Look for these 2 to get after it early.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
6
8
11
3 of 10 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
112918%

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FPO Candidate

1. Geoff Neal to Win by Decision +200

Neal comes out looking to finish, but Perry is a tough out and dangerous. Look for Neal to respect his power and focus on maintaining a sound defensive front. I wouldn’t be shocked to see GN opt for some time eating takedowns. While there are questions about Perry recovering from his last fight, if he went the distance and survive that level of damage- he should be able to here as well. Big return for Neal on the cards.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
86275%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
52340%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Kamaru Usman -164 vs Colby Covington +164

2. Max Holloway -160 vs Alexander Volkanovski +158

3. Omari Akhmedov +120 vs Ian Heinisch -127

4. Chase Hooper -110 vs Daniel Teymur +108

5. Kai Kara-France -159 vs Brandon Moreno +148

6. Oskar Piechota -115 vs Punahele Soriano +103

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
56263046%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
56292752%

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Prop Bets

Petr Yan to win by TKO/KO -115

Faber got buzzed early by Simon and was wobbled before he got the finish. Yan has the power and consistent striking attack to put Faber in some tough spots. At 40-years old, I am not sure how Faber holds up against the elite of the division over a prolonged fight. I think Yan is looking to make a statement and a finish here would do just that.

Geoff Neal/Mike Perry

See the Betting Scenario Section

Ketlen Vieira to Win Inside the Distance +444

Vieira is on the cusp of title contention. We also haven’t seen her in a while which does open the potential for improvements. Look for Vieira to get this fight to the mat ASAP and capitalize on Irene once she starts to fail- most likely getting to her back for the finish. This return is way too good to overlook.

Viviane Araujo/Jessica Eye

See the Betting Scenario Section

Oskar Piechota/Punahele Soriano

See the Betting Scenario Section

 

 

 

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