UFC 244: MASVIDAL vs DIAZ | Bet Pack Review

UFC 244: MASVIDAL vs DIAZ | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jorge Masvidal  to Win -160
+ Gregor Gillespie  to Win -163
ODDS: +162
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.98u

 

BET #2
+ Johnny Walker  to Win -160
+ Shane Burgos to Win  -250
ODDS: +128
BET: 8u
RETURN: 18.2u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -110
+ Derrick Lewis  to Win +100
ODDS: +282
BET: 6u
RETURN: 22.91u

 

BET #2
+ Katlyn Chookagian  to Win -160
+ Hakeem Dawodu  to Win -138
ODDS: +180
BET: 6u
RETURN: 16.82u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Darren Till  to Win +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12u

 

BET #2
+ Andrei Arlovski  to Win +130
ODDS: +130
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.2u

 

BET #3
+ Brad Tavares  to Win +137
+ Lyman Good  to Win -138
ODDS: +309
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.26u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Vicente Luque  to Win Inside the Distance +230
ODDS: +230
BET: 2u
RETURN: 6.6u

 

BET #2
+ Gregor Gillespie to Win Inside the Distance +275
ODDS: +275
BET: 2u
RETURN: 7.5u

 

BET #2
+ Katlyn Chookagian  to Win by Decision  -110
+ Gregor Gillespie  to Win -163
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -110
ODDS: +488
BET: 4u
RETURN: 23.52u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Shane Burgos to Win -250
+ Gregor Gillespie  to Win -163
+ Jorge Masvidal   to Win -160
ODDS: +267
BET: 10u
RETURN: 36.71u

 

BET #2
+ Johnny Walker  to Win -160
+ Shane Burgos to Win  -250
+ Gregor Gillespie  to Win -163
ODDS: +267
BET: 10u
RETURN: 36.71u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -110
+ Derrick Lewis  to Win +100
+ Jorge Masvidal   to Win -160
ODDS: +520
BET: 7u
RETURN: 43.43u

 

BET #2
+ Katlyn Chookagian  to Win -160
+ Hakeem Dawodu  to Win -138
+ Gregor Gillespie  to Win -163
ODDS: +352
BET: 6u
RETURN: 27.13u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Lyman Good  to Win -138
+ Hakeem Dawodu  to Win -138
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -110
ODDS: +468
BET: 5u
RETURN: 28.39u

 

BET #2
+ Brad Tavares  to Win +137
+ Lyman Good  to Win -138
+ Andrei Arlovski  to Win +130
+ Darren Till  to Win +200
ODDS: +2720
BET: 5u
RETURN: 141.02u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Vicente Luque  to Win Inside the Distance +230
+ Gregor Gillespie to Win Inside the Distance +275
+ Katlyn Chookagian  to Win by Decision  -110
ODDS: +2263
BET: 4u
RETURN: 94.5u

 

BET #2
+ Johnny Walker  to Win -160
+ Hakeem Dawodu  to Win -138
+ Lyman Good  to Win -160
+ Jorge Masvidal   to Win -160
ODDS: +640
BET: 5u
RETURN: 37u

BET #3
+ Derrick Lewis  to Win +100
+ Brad Tavares  to Win +137
+ Andrei Arlovski  to Win +130
+ Darren Till  to Win +200
ODDS: +3171
BET: 4u
RETURN: 130.82u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jorge Masvidal  $8800
+ Gregor Gillespie $9100
+ Johnny Walker $9000
+ Darren Till $7000
+ Derrick Lewis $8000
+ Vicente Luque $7700

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Jorge Masvidal -160 vs Nate Diaz +130

This fight has had its fair share of distractions in the build-up, but we are finally getting down to what really matters. Masvidal is the more diverse fighter which is key here. He also offers a number of the elements that Diaz struggles with (kicks and wrestling) to go along with lack of Nate’s exploitable options (poor cardio and poor pressure management). At the open, this fight was a near pick’em (both at -110) which I was fine with. I’m still comfortable backing Jorge at this price. I feel he is the better fighter overall, especially when you consider Nate’s success at 170 is limited to former 155er who have fought as low as 145. Yes, Jorge is a former 155er, but he is far from small at 170. Gold play for Masvidal.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Masvidal joins our lineup. He hits hard, can wrestle, and has 5 rounds to score points. Could he finish Diaz? Possibly? It is worth a shot here considering how he has been taking out opponents like Cerrone/Till/Askren he could add Diaz to that list. Another jumping knee? Add him.

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Kelvin Gastelum -250 vs Darren Till +200

This line has skyrocketed in recent days. Till had issues getting into the country and that could be a problem. I don’t think it will be. Often times fighters that deal with distractions outside the cage perform better as they become focused on getting back to what they do best- fight. They just want to get in the cage and put everything behind them. More concerning is the post-title fight letdown scenario that Gastelum is dealing with. If he is still compromised by the physical toll of the loss combined with a poor/ unfocussed mental state he is going to be far from at his best. This movement makes Till even more worth the bet. Lots to look at here- Bronze play for Till.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Till has been a finisher and Gastelum is coming off a rough fight where he was nearly stopped. Till could definitely out him out, especially if the extra weight adds to his power. Solid price helps us out with other buys. Add him.

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Vicente Luque -110 vs Stephen Thompson -110

Not a tonne of movement here, Thompson is still the fav on some sites which is fine by me. Luque is the more diverse fighter and in a better spot here with Thompson trending downward. Luque can’t afford to be hesitant. He has to move to the inside, maybe eat a few shots, and land with regularity. Thompson’s chin is a major issue and he is in serious trouble on the floor. Luque can lose this fight, but he would need a significant deviation from what he has previously shown us. Strong Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Luque is affordable and an absolute killer. If he wins, it will almost certainly be by devastating knockout or submission. Add him.

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Blagoy Ivanov -125 vs Derrick Lewis +100

Lewis opened as a decent favourite and has steadily been bet downward. I looked at Ivanov and had to backpedal on my pick. I feel like he is a solid candidate to get overwhelmed late my DL and get finished on the mat. He tends to slow down and I have seen less dangerous ground fighters have some success pushing him around. Lewis’s forward pressure is also a factor here against a fighter that will give ground. I think this bout devolves into a sloppy mess and that favours the Black Beast. Silver play for the big man.

Draft-Kings-Logo

If Lewis wins, he usually wins by knockout. At $8000, he is very affordable. He is one of those fighters that you don’t need to know much beyond is price tag and if you think he is going to win or not to consider adding him. Add him.

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Gregor Gillespie -163 vs Kevin Lee +137

The first fight on the main card is interesting. Lee is the established contender, returning to the division, and the younger fighter. Gillespie is on the rise, looking to notch a massive win, and is the older fighter. Both guys can work on the mat. GG should have the edge there until demonstrated otherwise. He hits harder as well and Lee’s durability has been a question. I like GG in this spot to get his first big win an keep moving forward. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

GG also gets the call here. His takedowns are point producers and the combination of his power and Lee’s chin makes him a solid Fantasy play. Add him.

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Corey Anderson +130 vs Johnny Walker -160

This fight spot is normally a decision machine but we have seen that changing of late. Walker opened around -200 and the bettors looking to bank on his first wrestling based opponent to expose him are betting him down significantly. I like it. Maybe we can get sub -140. Anderson could grind him out, but he is simply not durable enough to risk against a long and dynamic striker. Walker is being pushed for a shot at the title and the promotion would certainly like to see Anderson’s “not so fan-friendly approach” taken out of the running. Two birds, meet stone. I like Walker to keep rolling here. Gold play for Johnny.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I explained what I think is going to happen already. Johnny winning by abrupt finish. That logic still applies here. Add him.

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Makwan Amirkhani +200 vs Shane Burgos -250

Until the Till line started to move, this fight stood alone as the biggest gap between fighters. Some sites are offering Burgos at a better price between -220 and -240. This line is still solid for us to make a move. Unless Amirkhani can score a flash knockdown or crack the double tough TDD of Burgos, he is going to struggle to find an avenue to victory. This is a big step up for him after some very close fights that he came out on top in the majority. I like Burgos as a complimentary play in the Gold section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Even with the money I saved elsewhere, Burgos is still just out of reach for our bank account. Pass.

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Edmen Shahbazyan -163 vs Brad Tavares +137

I was a little surprised to see where this line is currently sitting and even more shocked to see that ES was an even greater favourite early on. Shabazyan opened on some sites in the -250 range which is huge. So far, he is undefeated and definitely finished each of his last 2 opponents. A track record of stopping regional opponents early and often usually doesn’t translate to success at this level, but so far he has found success. I think Tavares’s more patient approach can overcome that. If you look at the fighters that have beat Tavares it is pretty elite- Adesanya, Whittaker, and Romero. I am not sure that ES fits that category yet. Tavares gets the better of him is a long drawn out engagement. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Brad is an easy pass here with his decision heavy record.

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Andrei Arlovski +130 vs Jair Rozenstruik -150

AA opened around +130, spiked in the +175 range and then has steadily returned to +130. What the trend indicates is that people looked at JR’s striking background and KO power and jumped on him, pushing the price up. Once they had time to looked into the fight and as more and more predictors started breaking down the fight, the money started to come in on Arlovski. JR is off to a good start, but he has had some issues when looking closely at his fights. AA will drag him deep into this fight, potentially using his grappling to control the fight. I like the experienced, more well-rounded dog who should be on a bit of a roll if the judging had been better. A near Silver play, Bronze instead.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Arlovski has been a decision machine of late. Pass.

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Katlyn Chookagian -160 vs Jennifer Maia +130

Chook is a frustrating fighter because in a lot of her fights she tends to…avoid fighting. Well, not exactly. She throws a lot of volume, but doesn’t land a lot. She has the ability to convince the judges she is doing more than she actually is. That being said, she looked a little better last time out, sitting down on her punches and doing some damage. Maia is a bit of a slow starter and she likes to plod forward. If Chook can move to the outside, pepper away, and stay active she should take a decision. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

She goes to decision…a lot….pass.

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Lyman Good -138 vs Chance Rencountre +110

I was on Rencountre early, but after watching his Naurdiev fight I changed. He gets a lot of his takedowns from second and third chance opportunities. Naurdiev kept grappling and would get sucked in. Good is good at creating separation and getting away once his opponent engages. He is also a limited kicker, something that Chance likes to jump on for his TDAs. Chance’s willingness to eat shots costs him here. Bronze play for the local fighter in a fight that will be evident one way or another.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Rencountre is pretty durable. Good could get him out there, but it’s not likely as he won’t want to over commit on his punches.

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Julio Arce +110 vs Hakeem Dawodu -138

It is difficult to pick against a local fighter, especially in the first fight of the night. That being said, Dawudo is a rough matchup for Arce as he appears to be better in most areas. Dawodu is sharper, faster, and more impactful. If he avoids the TD or getting rocked, this is his fight to win. We are getting a decent return, with some sites as high at -130 after he opened at -168. I like him in my Silver plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I considered a play here, but Arce is a tough out for sure. Pass.

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Confidence List

1. Shane Burgos -250

2. Gregor Gillespie -163

3. Jorge Masvidal -160

4. Johnny Walker -160

5. Vicente Luque -110

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6. Hakeem Dawodu -138

7. Katlyn Chookagian -160

8. Lyman Good -138

9. Derrick Lewis +100

10. Andrei Arlovski +130

11. Brad Tavares +137

12. Darren Till +200

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Andrei Arlovski +130

2. Darren Till +200 

3. Brad Tavares +137

4. Derrick Lewis +100

5. Vicente Luque -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Lyman Good/Chance Rencountre

Neither of these fights are your typical EPUs. With so many fights that can be bet on for this event, I will minimize the props on my card.

2. Julio Arce/Hakeem Dawodu

See Above.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
43
13 of 34 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
28111739%

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FPO Candidate

1. Corey Anderson/Johnny Walker

I will pass here. Walker needs a finish, Anderson most likely needs to win by decision. I will see how this plays out.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
33211264%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2691735%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Jorge Masvidal -160 vs Nate Diaz +130

2. Vicente Luque -110 vs Stephen Thompson -110

3. Blagoy Ivanov -125 vs Derrick Lewis +100

4. Gregor Gillespie -163 vs Kevin Lee +137

5. Corey Anderson +130 vs Johnny Walker -160

6. Edmen Shahbazyan -163 vs Brad Tavares +137

7. Andrei Arlovski +130 vs Jair Rozenstruik -150

8. Katlyn Chookagian -160 vs Jennifer Maia +130

9. Lyman Good -138 vs Chance Rencountre +110

10. Julio Arce +110 vs Hakeem Dawodu -138

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
190919948%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
185929350%

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Prop Bets

Vicente Luque to Win Inside the Distance +230

Let’s keep both the knockout and the submission in play here. Thompson has been hurt on multiple occasions and is coming off a knockout finish. If Pettis, a former 155er who fought at 145 can knock him cold so can Luque. Vicente is coming off a decision win, he finds his finishing stride on Saturday night and at a solid price.

Gregor Gillespie to Win Inside the Distance +275

In a similar fashion, you have a fighter that can win by both knockout or submission and he is facing a fighter that is vulnerable to both. Look for Gillespie to out scramble Lee and work his way to a sound finishing position- let’s keep all options on the table.

Corey Anderson/Johnny Walker

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Katlyn Chookagian to Win by Decision -110

It doesn’t give the return a massive bump, but it is still worth it. Chook has gone the distance in all 7 of her UFC fights and 9 of her last 10. Maia is pretty durable and unless she gasses hard, I don’t anticipate that Katlyn will break her streak.

Lyman Good/Chance Rencountre

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Julio Arce/Hakeem Dawodu

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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