UFC 243: Whittaker vs Adesanya | Bet Pack Review

UFC 243: Whittaker vs Adesanya | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Al Iaquinta  to Win +145
ODDS: +145
BET: 8u
RETURN: 19.6u

 

BET #2
+ Dhiego Lima to Win  -145
+ Ji Yeon Kim  to Win -185
ODDS: +160
BET: 7u
RETURN: 18.22u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Israel Adesanya  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 11.45u

 

BET #2
+ Brad Riddell to Win  -165
ODDS: -165
BET: 5u
RETURN: 8.03u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Justin Tafa  to Win -130
+ Khalid Taha  to Win -235
ODDS: +152
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.61u

 

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Jake Matthews  to Win by Decision +125
ODDS: +125
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9u

 

BET #2
+ Justin Tafa  to Win by KO/TKO +115
+ Tai Tuivasa  to Win by KO/TKO -175
ODDS: +238
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.51u

BET #3
+ Khalid Taha to Win by KO/TKO +185
+ Maki Pitolo to Win by KO/TKO -125
ODDS: +413
BET: 4u
RETURN: 20.52u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Dhiego Lima to Win  -145
+ Ji Yeon Kim  to Win -185
+ Al Iaquinta  to Win +145
ODDS: +538
BET: 10u
RETURN: 63.77u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Israel Adesanya  to Win 110
+ Brad Riddell to Win -165
+ Khalid Taha  to Win -235
ODDS: +337
BET: 8u
RETURN: 34.97u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Justin Tafa  to Win -130
+ Tai Tuivasa  to Win by KO/TKO -175
+ Al Iaquinta  to Win +145
ODDS: +581
BET: 6u
RETURN: 40.87u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Jake Matthews  to Win by Decision +125
+ Khalid Taha to Win by KO/TKO +185
+ Maki Pitolo to Win by KO/TKO -125
ODDS: +1054
BET: 5u
RETURN: 57.71u

BET #2
+ Dhiego Lima to Win  -145
+ Israel Adesanya  to Win -110
+ Ji Yeon Kim  to Win -185
+ Justin Tafa  to Win by KO/TKO +115
ODDS: +968
BET: 5u
RETURN: 53.42u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Israel Adesanya $8000
+ Khalid Taha $8900
+ Justin Tafa $8300
+ Al Iaquinta $7700
+ Dhiego Lima $8400
+ Ji Yeon Kim $8700

Spares

+ Brad Riddell $8600
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Robert Whittaker -110 vs Israel Adesanya -110

We aren’t getting the return on Izzy that he opened at, but it is still worth a solid look. This fight should be even and as I have posted on Twitter, it is shocking to see how many people are writing Adesanya off here. Remember Whittaker has been out for a prolonged period of time. In that time frame, Adesanya has been putting together a solid list of wins. It is also worth noting that Whittaker’s best wins have all come over fighters that are secondary strikers, building on their wrestling/grappling base. I think Adesanya’s length and speed are going to be issues here. Whittaker looked very good versus Romero, but still got hurt, still got dropped, and from a stylistic approach, he should have been leading that fight late with Romero slowing down. Instead, he was surviving. I like Izzy here. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Izzy also gets the call here. Over 5 rounds he should be able to put up solid volume and if Whittaker is off even a bit, a finish won’t be that far behind. He is a solid price on a card with several big favs. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Dan Hooker -165 vs Al Iaquinta +145

Al opened as a favourite around the -130 which I expected and then steadily increased in value. I didn’t expect it to happen at this pace, but I assumed there would be some solid money coming in on Hooker. He is a good fighter and he is fighting at home, but he is very flawed. That is why the line opened where it did. If he can’t get his opponent out of there, he struggles to win the fight. He is 1-5 in decisions and has finished all of his UFC wins. Iaquinta is a tough out and if Hooker can’t finish him the numbers shift significantly in favour of the American. Gold play for Al!

Draft-Kings-Logo

We aren’t getting a lot of affordable options on this card, but Al is one of them. He might not get the finish, but Hooker is hittable and Al is sub $8000. For that reason alone, he is a must-add.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Sergey Spivak +320 vs Tai Tuivasa -400

This is an easy pass when it comes to a straight-up bet. I will look at the prop options available.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I wanted to add Tai to my lineup, but I couldn’t make it work with the cost so I had to look elsewhere.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Luke Jumeau +125 vs Dhiego Lima -145

Lima was a sizable favourite at -230 which would make him untouchable, but the movement has be fantastic. Jumeau has not looked that good despite his 2-1 record and he has been out for a while. Lima is fighting as well as he has in his UFC career. Even with both fighters fighting at their best, Jumeau’s style doesn’t attack the areas that Lima has struggled with. Luke likes to sit back and counter and let his opponent come to him. Lima is at his best when he isn’t being pushed back. We also have to consider that Lima could look for takedowns which is a huge option. Gold play for Lima.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Again Lima is affordable which is key. His volume isn’t great, but with a few takedowns the numbers will grow. Jumeau has also been hurt in multiple fights and Lima has shown he can pack a punch. That is enough for me. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Yorgan De Castro +110 vs Justin Tafa -130

This should be a sloppy mess and could end either way with one shot. Tafa could go the takedown route or put him down as the more accurate striker against de Castro trying to brawl his way to victory. Tafa is also fighting at home which is huge in a fight like this. Still lots of unknown. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $8300 Tafa is a solid add because we know if he wins this fight it will most likely come by knockout. That is enough for me. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Rostem Akman+270 vs Jake Matthews -340

I will look at the obvious prop bet here, but I won’t touch Matthews straight up at this price. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Matthews is too expensive for a fighter that is most likely going to go the distance.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Maki Pitolo -340 vs Callan Potter +270

Again, the price is not right. We really don’t know that much about either of these fighters which makes this an easy pass for me. With Potter’s history of getting finished and Pitolo’s striking skills, this could be a prop candidate.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $9000, Pitolo is just a little out of our price range- by about $100. Pass.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Jamie Mullarkey +145 vs Brad Riddell -165

This fight has a lot of unknowns involved. Both men are debuting, Mullarkey hasn’t fought in a long time, and both fighters have competed in different weight classes (heavier and lighter). All of this adds uncertainty to a prediction. I feel like there is more good scenarios in favour of Riddell here- but he can’t afford to spend time on his back. Under normal circumstances, this would be a Bronze bet and most likely will be in my HBC, but for my CBC we are looking for value in my Silver plays without having to delve into the props at this level. Bet accordingly.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $8600, Riddell is a serviceable spare. He could score a finish of Mullarkey who has been stopped in each of his last 2 fights and is the smaller man. Mix him in where needed.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Megan Anderson -525 vs Zarah Fairn Dos Santos +400

This is also an easy pass. Anderson has had limited (very limited) pockets of success in the UFC. While I feel they have set this fight to get her a win at home and maybe starts to build some momentum, the line is far from worth it. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Anderson is a finisher, but she has yet to truly show it at this level (beyond a fluke versus Cat). At this price let’s look elsewhere.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Nadia Kassem +165 vs Ji Yeon Kim -185

I was surprised to see Kassem open as a favourite. She didn’t do much on the regional scene that suggested she could make a big impact and even her debut win over Chambers was not that great. Kim is scrappy and has had a better overall showing in the UFC. She should be able to drag this fight into deep waters where Nadia has struggled. She could also look to take her down where she has really struggled. I don’t normally look at Gold plays this early on the card, but this one makes sense to me with the matchup- Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Kim also makes the fantasy cut. She has been a bit of a grinder, but Kassem has been so vulnerable on the floor tha a finish or a takedown heavy performance is very likely. Add her.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Bruno Silva +195 vs Khalid Taha -235

Taha looked good in his last fight and Silva appears vulnerable to against a big power puncher with good striking skills. Silva is debuting and we don’t know a heck of a lot about him at this level. I would most likely overlook Taha in favour of other options, but we are getting some value after a -265 open, let’s throw him into a Silver play as a play to augment my Silver pick(s).

Draft-Kings-Logo

With a track record for quick finishes and the punching power to continue that trend, Taha is a solid addition to our lineup. Silva is rangy, but once Khalid starts landing bombs this one should be a wrap with some serious points in our favour.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

 

Confidence List

1. Tai Tuivasa -400

2. Jake Matthews -340

3. Megan Anderson -525

4. Ji Yeon Kim -185

5. Maki Pitolo -340

====================

6. Khalid Taha -235

7. Al Iaquinta +145

8. Dhiego Lima -145

9. Brad Riddell -165

10. Israel Adesanya -110

11. Justin Tafa -130

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Al Iaquinta +145

2. Israel Adesanya -110

3. Dhiego Lima -145

4. Ji Yeon Kim -185

5. Justin Tafa -130

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Nadia Kassem/Ji Yeon Kim

Kassem has been recently finished while Kim as been going the distance like crazy. I think this one could go either way. Let’s take a pass and just look for the win.

2. Khalid Taha to Win by KO/TKO +185

Of Taha’s 13 career wins, 9 have come by knockout. He hits hard and strikes to finish from the onset of the fight. Of the 2 opening fights, this one seems the more likely to end inside the distance as it fits the profile of an EPU candidate. We are going to roll with the scenario.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

FPO Candidate

1. Jake Matthews to Win by Decision +125

Matthews has gone the distance in just 2 of his 7 UFC wins, but both of those decisions fell in recent fights- corresponding with a step up in competition. Akman seems like a tough opponent that might not be talented enough to win, but he is durable enough to stick around. This spot has seen some finishes lately, but I expect it to get back on track. Let’s get Matthews via decision at plus money.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Robert Whittaker -110 vs Israel Adesanya -110

2. Dan Hooker -165 vs Al Iaquinta +145

3. Luke Jumeau +125 vs Dhiego Lima -145

4. Yorgan De Castro +110 vs Justin Tafa -130

5. Jamie Mullarkey +145 vs Brad Riddell -165

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  icon-circle 

Prop Bets

Tai Tuivasa -to Win by  KO/TKO -175

I am a little surprised we are getting this good of a return here. Tai has won all but 1 of his fights by knockout and Spivak is coming off of the type of performance that suggests he won’t be able to hold up once the leather starts to fly. Tai puts on an impressive performance at home and gets him out of there. This play could be included at the higher end of my betting card.

Justin Tafa to Win by KO/TKO +115

This is another Heavyweight bout that we can punch up little by betting the finish. With both guys coming off the regional scene where finishes in this weight class are pretty frequent I assume we will see another here. Tafa hits hard and is capable of getting into top position for a GNP finish.

Rostem Akman/Jake Matthews

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Maki Pitolo to Win by TKO/KO -125

Potter has been finished in all 8 of his losses, 4 by knockout. He is hittable and facing a pretty strong striker in Pitolo who put together an impressive Contenders series win. Look for Maki to shine with his crisp high volume boxing attack, eventually putting his foe down for a solid return.

Nadia Kassem/Ji Yeon Kim

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Bruno Silva/Khalid Taha

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

%d bloggers like this: