UFC 242: Khabib vs Poirier | Bet Pack Review

UFC 242: Khabib vs Poirier | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Andrea Lee  to Win -220
+ Edson Barboza  to Win -160
ODDS: +136
BET: 9u
RETURN: 21.27u

 

BET #2
+ Nordine Taleb  to Win -125
+ Belal Muhammad  to Win by Decision -150
ODDS: +200
BET: 8u
RETURN: 24u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Omari Akhmedov  to Win -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9u

 

BET #2
+ Liana Jojua  to Win -160
+ Don Madge  to Win -170
ODDS: +158
BET: 4u
RETURN: 10.32u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Dustin Poirier  to Win +380
ODDS: +380
BET: 3u
RETURN: 14.4u

 

BET #2
+ Lerone Murphy  to Win +300
ODDS: +300
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Liana Jojua  to Win by Submission +450
ODDS: +450
BET: 2u
RETURN: 11u

 

BET #2
+ Curtis Blaydes  to Win by TKO/KO +110
+ Andrea Lee  to Win by Decision -110
ODDS: +301
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.03u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Andrea Lee  to Win -220
+ Edson Barboza  to Win -160
+ Nordine Taleb  to Win -125
ODDS: +325
BET: 9u
RETURN: 38.29u

 

BET #1
+ Andrea Lee  to Win -220
+ Edson Barboza  to Win -160
+ Belal Muhammad  to Win by Decision -150
ODDS: +294
BET: 9u
RETURN: 35.45u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Liana Jojua  to Win -160
+ Don Madge  to Win -170
+ Omari Akhmedov  to Win -125
ODDS: +365
BET: 7u
RETURN: 35.52u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Dustin Poirier  to Win +380
+ Don Madge  to Win -170
+ Belal Muhammad  to Win by Decision -150
ODDS: +1171
BET: 5u
RETURN: 63.53u

 

BET #2
+ Lerone Murphy  to Win +300
+ Omari Akhmedov  to Win -125
+ Andrea Lee  to Win -220
ODDS: +947
BET: 5u
RETURN: 52.36u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Liana Jojua  to Win by Submission +450
+ Don Madge  to Win Inside the Distance +150
+ Edson Barboza  to Win -160
ODDS: +2134
BET: 4u
RETURN: 89.38u

 

BET #2
+ Curtis Blaydes  to Win by TKO/KO +110
+ Andrea Lee  to Win by Decision -110
+ Nordine Taleb  to Win -125
ODDS: +622
BET: 5u
RETURN: 36.08u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Dustin Poirier  $6900
+ Liana Jojua $8400
+ Ottman Azaitar $8900
+ Lerone Murphy $6700
+ Curtis Blaydes $9400
+ Mairbek Taisumov $9000

Spares

+ Don Madge $8700
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Khabib Nurmagomedov -500 vs Dustin Poirier +380

There seems to be so much support for Khabib, which I understand- the guy is a monster. That being said, I am more concerned about how quickly fans and other predictors are dismissing Poirier. We have seen time and time again, fighters that seem unstoppable, finally lose. Is this that time for KN? I don’t know. I do know I have seen a lot for Poirier that tells me he is a significant threat. It is interesting to note he opened in the +205 range which is pretty solid compared to wear many of Khabib’s other opponents have started. Tapology has Khabib at 73%. The caliber of opponent knocks Poirier to a Bronze play. Either way, I am looking forward to this fight.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Dustin in my lineup. His volume is solid and he has knockout power. If he wins this fight it will be one or both of those factors that play a role. Those are big point producers. The $6900 price tag pretty much gives us the freedom to play anyone else on the card which. If Poirier hits, that puts our lineup in a very good spot.

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Edson Barboza -160 vs Paul Felder +130

I do like this fight with one minor concern- the mental state of Barboza after the KO loss. He always seems to come back strong, but that defeat could have ended any slight hope that he was in contention. In their first meeting, the line was a little further apart but not much. I haven’t seen enough change out of Felder to suggest he can turn this fight on his own. I like Barboza to pull off a repeat performance- Gold Play.

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I will pass here. Felder is a tough out and I am expecting this fight to go the distance. Better options elsewhere.

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Islam Makhachev -350 vs Davi Ramos +275

This is a pass for me. Ramos is pretty solid on the mat and could capitalize if Islam makes a mistake. There are better options elsewhere, but I will take a look at the decision prop for Islam- otherwise nothing.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Mak has been a finisher, but Ramos is not easy to put away. Let’s look elsewhere.

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Shamil Abdurakhimov +380 vs Curtis Blaydes -500

Similar here, Shamil is good enough to give Blaydes enough trouble that this fight is not worth the bet straight up. I will look at a prop here, but this is another pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Blaydes is in my lineup. He is a takedown machine and his GNP could produce a finish. With Poirier in the lineup we can afford almost anyone- including him.

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Diego Ferreira +225 vs Mairbek Taisumov -275

I had Taisumov in my Silver play, but I felt like Ferreira offers enough of a threat to avoid this play. I like my 3 picks in the Silver section enough on their own to avoid this one. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Taisumov has shown himself to be a finisher and Ferreira has been knocked out and can be finished on the feet. If Mairbek connect, he can certainly get him out of there. Add him.

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Joanne Calderwood +180 vs Andrea Lee -220

The line was much closer at the open so we have lost a little value on Lee, but that is the reality of late-week betting. I still like KGB. Her activity is the key against Calderwood who often holds back at times or throws the lesser strike options. Routinely she was landing low kicks while Chookagian was countering with more noteworthy punches. I think Lee is in a better spot than Calderwood and outworks her in a close fight. Lee is a Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am expecting that this fight should go the distance- pass.

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Liana Jojua -160 vs Sarah Moras +130

Moras missed weight which normally would be a concern with a size advantage favouring her. I don’t think that works here for a girl that notoriously has cardio issues and is travelling so far for this fight. Moras’s cardio isn’t great and unless she can snap up a submission win inside the first 4-5 minutes, she will gas hard and Jojua will take over. I am basing this pick on my understanding of Moras and despite Jojua coming in as a new fighter, I like here as a strong Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Jojua has also shown she can finish- 5 wins by submission over her 7 wins- all in the first round. Once Moras slows, look for Liana to take over on the floor to get a win. Add her.

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Lerone Murphy +300 vs Zubaira Tukhugov -400

I knew Tukhugov was out for a while, but he has been out for a REALLY LONG TIME. That could be a major factor here. It is enough of a factor to not bet on him I had picked him to win. His last 2 fights have been very close. His activity isn’t great and if he gets off to a slow start, look for Murphy to get ahead with his speed, reach, and striking. I like the underdog here to put together a solid performance. This is a major fade. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Murphy has solid KO power. He is a finisher. He is very affordable and similar to Poirier- we can buy a pair of $9000+ players and potentially one more that is close to that amount. Add him.

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Ottman Azaitar -225 vs Teemu Packalen +187

Azaitar is a capable regional fighter. Can his skills translate well at this level? This is a good fight to figure it out. Packalen hasn’t fought in a long time and he is coming off a knockout loss. Moreover, he is the type of fighter that will either crumble under the pressure of OA or capitalize on a mistake. I think it is the first scenario. I will use Azaitar as a Bronze play in the CBC parlay, but not as part of by HBC options.

Draft-Kings-Logo

He does get the fantasy call. He hits hard and is aggressive. Pacu was taken out in timely fashion in his last fight and that scenario could repeat itself. Add him.

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Belal Muhammad -400 vs Takashi Sato +300

This is a fight that we can’t touch on its own. But with Belal’s decision heavy track record, I feel like that is the way to go. The decision win currently sits around the -155 mark and that could push this prop in my Gold plays. More to come in the Prop section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We are looking at a decision most likely. Pass.

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Muslim Salikhov +100 vs Nordine Taleb -125

Taleb was a solid dog at the open, coming in around the +150 mark. We have lost a sizeable chunk of that value, but I still like the play here. Salikhov lost to one of Taleb’s teammates in his debut and wasn’t looking good against Rainey in his next fight. Taleb should be able to replicate the issues that Muslim has dealt with. Short of a knockout, it will be tough for Salikhov to win this fight, even at home. Gold play for the Canadian.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Taleb could get a finish, but the more likely scenario is a grinding decision win. Not ideal for fantasy production.

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Omari Akhmedov -125 vs Zak Cummings +100

Cummings is a much better fighter than he is given credit for, but I didn’t like how he dealt with the power and physicality of Prazeres at WW. Akhmedov throws hard and is difficult to get off his feet. He should find similar success against Zak. Unless he slows tremendously in R3 and gets finished or Cummings really pushes him hard and takes over in round 2, this is Omari’s fight to win. Strong Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Omari doesn’t make the cut based on how tough Cummings is to get out of there. Pass

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Don Madge -170 vs Fares Ziam +140

Madge looked impressive in his debut, but I am not sure how the layoff ill effect him. Ziam is green, but skilled. The late notice won’t help either. Madge’s aggression gets him out of there before he has time to settle in or it overwhelms him early and he fade as the fight progresses. Silva Play for Madge.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Madge’s aggression makes him a solid candidate to get the finish here. He has a better than expected submission game to go along with his striking skills. Add him in as a substitute to mix up your lineup when needed.

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Confidence List

1. Curtis Blaydes -500

2. Belal Muhammad -400

3. Andrea Lee -220

4. Islam Makhachev -350

5. Edson Barboza -160

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6. Mairbek Taisumov -275

7. Liana Jojua -160

8. Don Madge -170

9. Nordine Taleb -125

10. Omari Akhmedov -125

11. Ottman Azaitar -225

12. Lerone Murphy +300

13. Dustin Poirier +380

 

Value Bet List

1. Dustin Poirier +380

2. Lerone Murphy +300

3. Nordine Taleb -125

4. Edson Barboza -160 

5. Omari Akhmedov -125

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Omari Akhmedov/Zak Cummings

Cummings is a tough out. I will let this one play out and take the win however we can get it.

2. Don Madge to Win Inside the Distance +150

I want to keep both the submission and knockout options on the table. Madge’s opponent has lost twice by submission and Don showcased an aggressive guard in his debut. He can get him out of there, but I don’t feel confident backing one way over the other.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
20
35
10 of 28 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
2491538%

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FPO Candidate

1. Andrea Lee to Win by Decision -110

Lee is 3-0 in the UFC with 3 decision wins. I feel like she can replicate the issues that Jo Jo had with Chookagian and go beyond them. The big key for Calderwood will be landing takedowns, but Lee is pretty solid at getting vertical. Lee will just do more. Take Lee on the cards.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
2719870%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2171433%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Edson Barboza -160 vs Paul Felder +130

2. Liana Jojua -160 vs Sarah Moras +130

3. Muslim Salikhov +100 vs Nordine Taleb -125

4. Omari Akhmedov -125 vs Zak Cummings +100

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
147687946%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
145747151%

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Prop Bets

Curtis Blaydes to Win by TKO/KO +110

This should come as a result of the takedown and top position GNP. I don’t think Shamil can defend the TDs once Blaydes commits and he won’t be able to get back up once they hit the floor. I didn’t expect to get plus money here, but we will take it.

Joanne Calderwood/Andrea Lee

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Liana Jojua to Win by Submission +450

This is a huge return for a girl that has won the majority of her fights by submission. Yes, Moras has never been tapped but she missed weight and is fighting far from home at an unconventional time- this will further complicate an already bad gas tank. I think Jojua grinds with her and then capitalizes once she tires. Huge return here. Love it.

Belal Muhammad to Win by Decision -150

Muhammad is a decision machine. Sato will be looking for the knockout and once he starts to fade a little, Belal will take over. Is Saunders can land more that Sato, so can Belal. This is going to be apart of my Gold Plays.

Omari Akhmedov/Zak Cummings

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Don Madge/Fares Ziam

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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