UFC 241: Cormier vs Miocic 2 | Bet Pack Review

UFC 241: Cormier vs Miocic 2 | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win -138
+ Cory Sandhagen  to Win -200
ODDS: +159
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.7u

 

BET #2
+ Daniel Cormier  to Win -138
+ Sodiq Yusuff  to Win -275
ODDS: +135
BET: 8u
RETURN: 18.81u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Paulo Costa  to Win +115
ODDS: +115
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.9u

 

BET #2
+ Derek Brunson  to Win +125
+ Drakkar Klose  to Win -175
ODDS: +254
BET: 6u
RETURN: 21.21u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Nate Diaz  to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.6u

 

BET #2
+ Shana Dobson  to Win +100
ODDS: +100
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Sodiq Yusuff  to Win by Decision +240
ODDS: +240
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.6u

 

BET #2
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win by Submission +130
ODDS: +130
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.2u

BET #3
+ Daniel Cormier  to Win -138
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win -138
+ Derek Brunson  to Win +125
ODDS: +569
BET: 4u
RETURN: 26.77u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win -138
+ Daniel Cormier  to Win -138
+ Cory Sandhagen  to Win -200
ODDS: +346
BET: 10u
RETURN: 44.62u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Derek Brunson  to Win +125
+ Paulo Costa  to Win +115
+ Drakkar Klose  to Win -175
ODDS: +660
BET: 7u
RETURN: 53.21u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Nate Diaz  to Win +110
+ Shana Dobson  to Win +100
+ Kyung Ho Kang  to Win -200
ODDS: +530
BET: 6u
RETURN: 37.8u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Sodiq Yusuff  to Win by Decision +240
+ Daniel Cormier  to Win -138
+ Cory Sandhagen  to Win -200
ODDS: +780
BET: 6u
RETURN: 52.77u

 

BET #2
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win by Submission +130
+ Nate Diaz  to Win +110
+ Paulo Costa  to Win +115
ODDS: +938
BET: 6u
RETURN: 62.31u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Daniel Cormier $8500
+ Nate Diaz $7900
+ Paulo Costa $7600
+ Devonte Smith $9500
+ Manny Bermudez $8400
+ Derek Brunson $7400

Spares

+ Cory Sandhagen $8700
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Daniel Cormier -138 vs Stipe Miocic +110

Here we go! The rematch. Was is it a fluke or will Cormier replicate his success. The line is opened around -150 and is moving in our favour. I have seen him as a good as -133 and we could get a little more on fight day. Cormier came in a little lighter than last time which is interesting considering he attributed his knockout power to the added weight. Maybe this makes him a little quicker which is also important. Cormier is getting 66% on Tapology which is solid. I think the line is being pushed by the size factor. Cormier looks small compared to Miocic and most are waiting for that to be a factor. Miocic’s chin is far from rock solid and without his wrestling to help him, he will need to be on point defensively. DC grinds him down, wears him out, and gets the finish again- most likely at the same range. I love Cormier at this price. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Cormier is a great way to headline our lineup. He averages 86 points per fight and triple digits over his last 3 including 113 the last time he fought Stipe. I’m not expecting a quick finish, but a grinding volume paced performance with an eventual finish. Add him.

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Nate Diaz +110 vs Anthony Pettis -138

Nate opened as a very slight favourite, but the line is now working in our favour. I feel like the line is being swayed by the layoff. I will admit I am not a Pettis fan, but his track record in longer fights is not strong. Diaz might take a little to get going, but I think he gets there and pulls away from Showtime in rounds 2 and 3. It wasn’t for the layoff Diaz would be a stronger play, but I have him in the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nate is a solid add. He wins fights with volume and at less than $8000 the points per dollar value is a great buy. Add him.

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Paulo Costa +115 vs Yoel Romero -138

The line on Costa is moving. He started out around +160, move towards +110 and is now rebounding as the fight gets closer. If you shop around you can grab him for +120 and it will most likely close around +130 tomorrow. Romero is a super athlete, but his wait and see style doesn’t bode well versus an aggressive power puncher like Costa. With Yoel coming off a title fight loss he is in a post-title fight letdown scenario- that has beaten many good fighters. I think it gets him here. Silver play for Costa.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Costa is a killer with all of his wins coming by knockout. At $7600 it is hard to overlook a fighter that looks to end a fight with every punch. In a game that values finishes and finding deals, this is one fighter you can’t overlook.

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Gabriel Benitez +225 vs Sodiq Yusuff -275

Benitez is coming back off a long layoff and didn’t have much of a fight the last time we saw him. Yusuff is the more consistent striker and should have a sizeable speed advantage. I feel like this is a fight put together to help put SY further with another strong win. The line is much better than the -305 that it opened at and feel like we can use this bet to complement another Gold play- possibly Cormier.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Yusuff really hasn’t shown his finishing skills at this level and while it wouldn’t be a shock to see it go down here, I feel like this is a passable option.

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Derek Brunson +125 vs Ian Heinisch -150

Heinisch is coming into this fight off the success of a pair of wins over 2 similar fighters. Now he gets a step up. Brunson is looking to hold onto his spot on the cusp of the upper echelon. Heinisch capitalized on fighters that slowed down and didn’t offer a lot on the feet. He got taken down 9-times and that is concerning. If Brunson can have some wrestling success and couple with a reach based jab attack he can win this fight. Heinisch volume isn’t overwhelming and he hasn’t showcased the power numbers that need to be concerned about. Brunson grinds out a close fight here. Silver play for Brunson.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I like Brunson in my lineup. He is very affordable and hits extremely hard. If he can’t get Heinisch out of there with strikes, look for him to score points with his takedowns. Add him.    

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Devonte Smith -800 vs Khama Worthy +500

This is an easy pass. The line is nowhere near playable. I will look at a prop bet here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Smith is a knockout machine and Worthy has been stopped a number of times. He is very expensive but we can afford him with the dogs we took. Easy. Add him.

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Raphael Assuncao +170 vs Cory Sandhagen -200

The Sandhagen line is on the move and not in our favour. He was sitting around the -145 mark which was fantastic. You can still find him at just under -200 which is solid, but other sites are starting to push him closer to -220. I think this is a bad fight for Assuncao with the volume and reach of Sandhagen. Unless Raphael can snatch a finish, he will struggle with the activity rate of the American. If CS was still at the previous price he is a centerpiece of my Gold plays. Instead, he is a secondary Gold play most likely to be coupled with Bermudez.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Sandhagen gets the call as a secondary play. Assuncao is coming of off a stoppage defeat and we could see Sandhagen replicate that finish. If he can’t the volume is a decent option. The reason he isn’t the main play is because of the quality of his opponent.

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Christos Giagos +150 vs Drakkar Klose -175

The line on Klose has stayed fairly consistent with the best around the -160 mark. Giagos picked up a pair of wins over lower-level opposition. He is the type of fighter that needs to find a large amount of success on the mat. I don’t see him doing so against Klose and in fact Drakkar could turn the tables on him as well. Giagos has a tendency to fade in rounds and if Klose was a little more active with his own striking, I’d consider him a Gold play. Klose makes the cut as a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t see him getting the finish here, let’s look elsewhere for our lineup.

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Manny Bermudez -138 vs Casey Kenney +110

I love this fight and was a little shocked that we were getting such a solid deal on Bermudez. Manny opened around the -245 range and has steadily improved in our favour. A lot of people are looking at Kenney’s wresting and ability to survive on the mat with Borg as an indication of his ability to win this fight. I see it the other way. Kenney’s inability to avoid takedowns and create separation doesn’t bode well for him against an opponent that has shown he really only needs one opportunity to secure a submission. Bermudez locks him up, takes him down, and taps him out. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Bermudez in my Fantasy lineup. His flash submission skills make him an easy pick to add to the lineup.

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Hannah Cifers -300 vs Jodie Esquibel +240

This is an easy pass. Cifers should win this fight, but Esquibel is fighting for her career and will come out desperate. The bout will be much closer than the line indicates. Easy pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No finish here. Pass.

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Brandon Davis  +170 vs Kyung Ho Kang -200

I like Kang, but he is just reckless enough to get himself in trouble. He is just reckless enough to make the -200 not worth a play. That being said, I feel like he could be useful as the thrid leg of the CBC Bronze play or couple with Dobson in the HBC Bronze section. An early attempt to cash in with a Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Kang could score a finish with his submission skills or build up some points with a takedown heavy attack, but I feel like there are more playable options at a slightly better price. Pass.

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Shana Dobson +100 vs Sabina Mazo -125

We have seen a number of recent female fights go in a completely different direction than what we expected. Mazo is in a better spot here, but I like Dobson. Dobson is aggressive and hits hard and Mazo is a self-described slow starter. I feel like Dobson gets ahead early, keeps the pressure on and then avoids a late rally from a fighter who has geared her style to 5-round fights. Mazo made Moroz look like a pressure fighter, I think Dobson will have similar success. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

This is a pass. I don’t see a finish in this one.

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Confidence List

1. Devonte Smith -800

2. Manny Bermudez -138

3. Sodiq Yusuff -275

4. Cory Sandhagen -200

5. Daniel Cormier -138

====================

6. Drakkar Klose -175

7. Derek Brunson +125

8. Kyung Ho Kang -200

9. Hannah Cifers -300

10. Paulo Costa +115

11. Nate Diaz +110

12. Shana Dobson +100

 

Value Bet List

1. Derek Brunson +125

2. Nate Diaz +110

3. Paulo Costa +115

4. Shana Dobson +100

5. Manny Bermudez -138

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Kyung Ho Kang to Win Inside the Distance +180

I expect that we are going to see Kang win this by submission, but his willingness to stand and trade could lead to a knockout win. Davis got cracked with a lot of big shot in his last fight and Kang hits pretty hard. Let’s keep both options on the board with this play.

2. Shana Dobson/Sabina Mazo

I could see a finish, but I am not feeling strong enough to make an official play. Let’s keep this one simple.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
20
35
10 of 28 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
2491538%

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FPO Candidate

1. Devonte Smith/Khama Worthy

Even though I feel that Smith wins this one by knockout, there is no real bet that is worth making here. With the FPO scenario being as consistent as it is, there is no way we can risk this at this type of return. Pass.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
2719870%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2171433%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Daniel Cormier -138 vs Stipe Miocic +110

2. Nate Diaz +110 vs Anthony Pettis -138

3. Paulo Costa +115 vs Yoel Romero -138

4. Derek Brunson +125 vs Ian Heinisch -150

5. Manny Bermudez -138 vs Casey Kenney +110

6. Shana Dobson +100 vs Sabina Mazo -125

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
147687946%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
145747151%

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Prop Bets

Sodiq Yusuff to Win by Decision +240

Yusuff has yet to show us his finishing skills in the UFC. That doesn’t mean he won’t here. In fact, we often see regional finisher start to return to their ways after a few fights in the UFC. Benitez has been finished once via strikes in 27 career fights. Yusuff continues his methodical striking based success for a win on the card.

Devonte Smith/Khama Worthy

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Manny Bermudez to Win by Submission +130

Really? Do I need to explain this one? Okay. Of Manny’s 14 career wins, 11 have come by submission including 3 in the UFC. The fact that we are getting plus money here is fantastic. If Kenney could avoid takedowns from the undersized Borg he won’t fair much better against the deceptively strong Bermudez. He gets the sub.

Brandon Davis/Kyung Ho Kang

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Shana Dobson/Sabina Mazo

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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