UFC 240: Holloway vs Edgar- Bet Pack Review

UFC 240: Holloway vs Edgar- Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win -188
+ Max Holloway  to Win -400
ODDS: -110
BET: 10u
RETURN: 19.15u

 

BET #2
+ Arman Tsarukyan  to Win -175
+ Max Holloway  to Win -400
ODDS: -104
BET: 10u
RETURN: 19.64u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Erik Koch  to Win +100
ODDS: +100
BET: 5u
RETURN: 10u

 

BET #2
+ Deiveson Figueiredo  to Win +110
+ Sarah Frota  to Win +110
ODDS: +341
BET: 6u
RETURN: 26.46u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Marc-Andre Barriault  to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.6u

 

BET #2
+ Seungwoo Choi  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 4u
RETURN: 7.64u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win by Decision +182
ODDS: +182
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.28u

 

BET #2
+ Max Holloway to Win by TKO/KO +110
+ Cris Cyborg  to Win by TKO/KO -265
ODDS: +189
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14.46u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win -188
+ Max Holloway  to Win -400
+ Arman Tsarukyan  to Win -175
ODDS: +201
BET: 10u
RETURN: 30.09u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Deiveson Figueiredo  to Win +110
+ Sarah Frota  to Win +110
+ Erik Koch 
to Win +100
ODDS: +782
BET: 7u
RETURN: 61.74

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Marc-Andre Barriault  to Win +140
+ Seungwoo Choi  to Win +110
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win -188
ODDS: +672
BET: 6u
RETURN: 46.33u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Max Holloway to Win by TKO/KO +110
+ Cris Cyborg  to Win by TKO/KO -265
+ Viviane Araujo  to Win by Decision +182
ODDS: +716
BET: 5u
RETURN: 40.78u

 

BET #1
+ Hakeem Dawodu  to Win by Decision +180
+ Koch/Stewart  Total Rounds Under 2.5 -105
+ Deiveson Figueiredo  to Win +110
ODDS: +1048
BET: 6u
RETURN: 68.88u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Max Holloway $9600
+ Cris Cyborg $9400
+ Sarah Frota $7600
+ SeungWoo Choi $7800
+ Marc-Andre Barriault $7500
+ Deiveson Figueiredo $7900

Spares

+ Erik Koch $8000
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Max Holloway -400 vs Frankie Edgar +300

The line hasn’t moved that much. This book has Holloway on the lower end of where I have seen him with most sites sitting around -350 to -370. Some people are supporting a play on Edgar- I am not sure he wins this fight under almost any scenario short of a fash knockout or a complete collapse of Max’s cardio. I will take a long look at a prop bet, but even at this price I am confident enough to place Max in my Gold plays and couple him with another bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Max is getting the call for my Fantasy lineup. I really like my lineup this time around and feel the combo of Max and Cyborg with a 4 solid underdog bets makes for a very interesting lineup. The combo of his volume and potential finishing skills are plenty worth the price to be paid. Add him.

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Cris Cyborg -600 vs Felicia Spencer +450

The Featherweight division is awfully bare and as a result, we get a fight like this one. Spencer won a stylistically perfect fight for her to get here. Cyborg is not that. Eating strikes and looking to close the gap is not a recipe for success against the former Champion. Look for Cyborg to be motivated, but this line is not worth a look. I will look at a prop option, but for now this is a pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Cyborg and Max are my 2 big buys and then we are looking at backing some very dangerous dogs. Cyborg can put a lot of damage on an opponent and unless Spencer gets her down with regularity, Cris should be able to finish her. Add the Brazilian.

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Geoff Neal -350 vs Niko Price +275

This line should be closer or at least I had hoped it would be. Neal opened at -185 which is a much more appropriate risk/reward. Price is just too gritty and a capable fighter to overlook here. Price is on the wrong end of most of the comparables, but that doesn’t mean he can’t pull off the upset. He has done it before. I initially thought about a Gold play to help augment my other plays, but instead, I will pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Neal hits hard and is pretty consistent with his offence. Unfortunately, he is very expensive. I will pass.

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Olivier Aubin-Mercier +150 vs Arman Tsarukyan -175

I gave OAM a good long look. If Tsarukyan falters with the overseas trip or the pressure of being a favourite on the road, he could drop this fight. I just am not sold on OAM if he can’t score takedowns with regularity. Tsarukyan put up good TDD in his debut against a fighter I would rank above OAM. Tsarukyan should also have a wide advantage on the feet here. The line has moved significantly in our favour with Arman opening around the -305 mark. Some sites now have him as low as -157. I like him in the Gold section, most likely coupled with Holloway.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here. He is too expensive for what we have planned at the top of our lineup.

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Marc-Andre Barriault +140 vs Krzysztof Jotko -170

Jotko was on a clear downturn from a solid UFC start when he scored a win over a lower level debuting fighter. Barriault got a tough debut and held his own against a strong wrestler. Jotko is a capable grinder, but I feel that if Barriault can defend the way he did against Sanchez, he can do the same here. We aren’t getting the +170 that we saw at the open, but there is still good value in the dog. Jotko’s durability is a major question and that is the key here. I would like to see MAB get a win at the UFC level before we jump in too hard- Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $7500, MAB is a perfect add to our lineup. He is cheap, a capable finisher, and fighting an opponent with a questionable chin. Look for MAB to make it a war before scoring the finish.

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Viviane Araujo -188 vs Alexis Davis +162

Araujo opened around -240 and has steadily improved since. I attribute this to her lack of name recognition as she takes on a more well-known former title challenger fighting at home. I was really impressed with Araujo in her debut and regretted not backing her after feeling she had a good chance to pull it off. I really like her here. She hits hard, varies her offense, and is very quick. Davis struggles too much with her flow and doesn’t transition well between striking and grappling. She will spend the entire fight chasing Araujo and wearing damage. Gold Play for the Brazilian.

Draft-Kings-Logo

This fight has a high likelihood of going the distance. Pass.

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Hakeem Dawodu -400 vs Yoshinori Horie +300

This is an easy pass. Horie is much better than the line indicates. I will pass here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Dawodu isn’t getting the finish numbers in the UFC that he got on the regional scene. Pass.

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Seungwoo Choi -110 vs Gavin Tucker -110

Tucker is in a bad spot here compared to where Choi is at. He is coming off a massive layoff and brutal beating. There were indications that his gas tank was an issue, but Glenn clearly brought it to the forefront. Choi is coming off of his debut which came on the heels of a massive layoff- he now has some UFC experience and a more appropriate turnaround. Choi has a sizeable length advantage and he is tough. His counter striking will work as well against an opponent needing to cover a lot of ground. Tucker was a big favourite but with some digging, you can see why it moved. Look for Choi to take this fight over in rounds 2 and 3 as Tucker starts to slow. Choi is a Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Choi also gets the call in my fantasy lineup. Tucker could have been stopped by Glenn and while he survived, Choi has the type of power to get him out of there. If Choi wins he most likely does it inside the distance and at sub-$8000 he is affordable. Add him.

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Deiveson Figueiredo +110 vs Alexandre Pantoja -138

This stands to be a close fight, at least early. We are getting a little bit of a line swing in our favour with DF bouncing from -105 to the +110 he currently sits at. I like it. Pantoja is capable but tends to fade. He also has had issues giving up TDs and if Deiveson gets on top he can do damage and further drain his gas tank. With Fig returning a decent price he is a solid Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Figs in my Fantasy lineup. He has legit finishing power and if Pantoja fades, DF will get him out of there. At $7900 he is a perfect addition to our top-heavy roster.

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Sarah Frota +110 vs Gillian Robertson -125

Despite missing weight, Frota had her moments in her short-notice debut against a good opponent. I like Robertson a lot, but I feel the combination of Frota’s size, skill, and general physicality is going to be a lot for her to overcome. On the feet, it is a big edge to the power-punching Brazilian. On the mat, I don’t like that Gill tends to give up position for submission- that is a huge mistake here. The line here for Frota has improved, sitting in the +105 range and climbing to +112 on some sites. I like the Brazilian as a Silver play here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Frota gets the fantasy call as well. She hits hard and can finish via submission. Robertson made some mistakes and got subbed in her only UFC loss. I see Frota finding success, especially if Robertson gets overaggressive. A solid price for a capable finisher.

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Erik Koch +100 vs Kyle Stewart -125

The first fight on the card features a fighter that has simply been unlucky. Missed out on a FW title fight, struggled to gain much traction at LW, and finally is taking a run at WW. If Koch can make it work here, he is in potentially at the end of the road. Stewart didn’t impress me in his pre-UFC fights and got smoked in his debut. Koch is a talented guy with the skills to capitalize on the big grappling gap that Stewart has. I like Koch in my Silver Plays

Draft-Kings-Logo

I would use Erik as a sub to mix things up. His ability to pull off the submission win here is pretty high, as long as the size is not an issue. Add him to a secondary lineup.

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Confidence List

1. Cris Cyborg -600

2. Max Holloway -400

3. Hakeem Dawodu -400

4. Viviane Araujo -188

5. Arman Tsarukyan -175

====================

6. Geoff Neal -350

7. Sarah Frota +110

8. Deiveson Figueiredo +110

9. Erik Koch +100

10. Marc-Andre Barriault +140

11. Seungwoo Choi -110

 

Value Bet List

1. Sarah Frota +110

2. Deiveson Figueiredo +110

3. Marc-Andre Barriault +140

4. Erik Koch +100

5. Seungwoo Choi -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Sarah Frota/Gillian Robertson

This fight was not originally scheduled to be one of the EPUs. Pass.

2. Erik Koch/Kyle Stewart Total Rounds Under 2.5 -105

I want to keep both fighters finishing skills and defensive vulnerabilities on the table here. It will either be Stewart by knockout or Koch by submission. I like that we are getting the extra round at a decent price.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Viviane Araujo to Win by Decision +182

Araujo is a proven finisher and is coming off one of the most devastating finishes in WMMA history. It is a great time to fade her stopping power as she takes on a durable and experienced veteran in the FPO spot. I like Araujo to simply outwork Davis with the gap us offensive success widening as the fight goes- but they do make it the full 15-minutes.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Seungwoo Choi -110 vs Gavin Tucker -110

2. Deiveson Figueiredo +110 vs Alexandre Pantoja -138

3. Sarah Frota +110 vs Gillian Robertson -125

4. Erik Koch +100 vs Kyle Stewart -125

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Max Holloway to Win by TKO/KO +110

Edgar got put down by Ortega with a couple of heavy shots. Max doesn’t get the credit for his power because of the death by the accumulation factor that most people look at here. Edgar is tough, but that is his problem. At some point, his willingness to take damage will get him in trouble. Look for Max to keep landing until Edgar goes down. Solid return for a main event that is pretty heavy in favour of the champ.

Cris Cyborg to Win by TKO/KO -265

Honestly, if you are going to get invested in this fight at all- this is probably your only legit option. The return isn’t great, so if you don’t feel like the risk is worth the reward feel free to pass.

Viviane Araujo/Alexis Davis

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Hakeem Dawodu to Win by Decision +180

Dawodu has gone the distance in each of his last 3 wins- all opponents representing a step up in competition. He might come out looking for the finish while fighting at home, but instead, I feel like he will utilize a strong technical approach to avoid his opponent’s power punching. HD by decision.

Sarah Frota/Gillian Robertson

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Erik Koch/Kyle Stewart

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

 

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