UFC 239: Jones vs Santos | Bet Pack Review

UFC 239: Jones vs Santos | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Song Yadong  to Win -190
+ Jon Jones  to Win by TKO/KO +165
ODDS: +304
BET: 8u
RETURN: 32.36u

 

BET #2
Luke Rockhold  to Win -225
+ Arnold Allen  to Win by Decision -120
ODDS: +218
BET: 5u
RETURN: 15.89u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Randa Markos  to Win +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12u

 

BET #2
+ Jorge Masvidal  to Win +187
ODDS: +187
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.48u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win +170
ODDS: +170
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.1u

 

BET #2
+ Nohelin Hernandez  to Win +300
ODDS: +300
BET: 2u
RETURN: 8u

 

BET #3
+ Chance Rencountre  to Win +400
ODDS: +400
BET: 2u
RETURN: 10u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Amanda Nunes  to Win by Decision +225
ODDS: +225
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.75u

 

BET #2
+ Michael Chiesa  to Win by Decision +250
ODDS: +250
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10.5u

 

BET #3
+ Naurdiev/ Rencountre   Total Rounds Under 2.5 +122
ODDS: +122
BET: 2u
RETURN: 4.44u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Song Yadong  to Win -190
+ Jon Jones  to Win by TKO/KO +165
+ Luke Rockhold  to Win -190
ODDS: +517
BET: 8u
RETURN: 49.39u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Randa Markos  to Win +200
+ Jorge Masvidal  to Win +187
+ Arnold Allen  to Win by Decision -120
ODDS: +1479
BET: 6u
RETURN: 94.71u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win +170
+ Nohelin Hernandez  to Win +300
ODDS: +980
BET: 3u
RETURN: 32.4u

 

BET #2
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win +170
+ Chance Rencountre  to Win +400
ODDS: +1250
BET: 3u
RETURN: 40.5u

BET #3
+ Nohelin Hernandez  to Win +300
+ Chance Rencountre  to Win +400
ODDS: +1900
BET: 3u
RETURN: 60u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Michael Chiesa  to Win by Decision +250
+ Amanda Nunes   to Win by Decision +225
+ Jon Jones  to Win by TKO/KO +165
ODDS: +2914
BET: 4u
RETURN: 120.58u

 

BET #2
+ Naurdiev/ Rencountre   Total Rounds Under 2.5 +122
+ Jorge Masvidal  to Win +187
+ Arnold Allen  to Win by Decision -120
ODDS: +1068
BET: 3u
RETURN: 35.04u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jon Jones $9600
+ Luke Rockhold $8400
+ Chance Rencountre $6900
+ Jorge Masvidal $7500
+ Song Yadong $8500
+ Amanda Nunes $9100

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Jon Jones -600 vs Thiago Santos +450

This is an easy fight to avoid at this line. We all know what Jones brings to the table and Thiago offers a dangerous enough offense that one kick could kill your bet card for minimal return. We did get some movement as some books had the fight around -900 and some still do. Straight up, this is an easy pass. I will look at the props, which could offer a more playable option.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Jones in my Fantasy lineup. Santos goes so hard that if he doesn’t get the finish, he will most likely be exhausted in the latter stages of the fight or have exposed himself defensively and got finished as a result. Either way, Jones should finish. Add him.

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Amanda Nunes -400 vs Holly Holm +300

Similar situation here. Nunes has all the tools to win this fight, but a well-placed kick or a perfectly executed gameplan could give Holm the title. On a card with a pile of heavy favourites. This one gets thrown on the pile as a pass. I will consider a prop bet, leaning towards the Nunes decision play. We will see.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Nunes in my lineup which seems odd considering I think she takes it on the cards. I am looking at a 5-round fight that could see decent striking volume coupled with well-timed takedowns. I think Nunes will recognize that Holm will struggle there and as a result, she will attack her on the mat. If she gets the finish. That is just a bonus. Add her.

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Ben Askren -225 vs Jorge Masvidal +187

Here we go with 1 of 5 upsets I am looking at for this card. The line hasn’t moved much so I feel like we are getting a fairly even stream of investments on both sides. Askren got through his debut, but this is another animal I feel. Lawler had a good strategy, but he tried to cram it into a few minutes. Sprawl and brawl. Masvidal is going to sprawl and strike. Jorge knows he might spend the first round on the defensive, but look for him to punish Askren every time he moves forward and shoots. Once the damage and exhaustion of failed shots starts to pile up, Jorge takes the fight over and wins a decision or stops him. We have seen this before with highly touted fighters coming into the UFC, find a little bit of early success and then they run into a wall. I like Masvidal as a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Jorge in my Fantasy lineup. We have to take chances in order to build a decent lineup when you have this many heavy favourites. Masvidal has stopping power and Askren will move forward looking to engage. If Jorge connects, he could very well put him down. If he can’t get the finish, his volume against an opponent that is willing to eat shots will be the key. Looking for a finish here, but we will take a decision if we can get it.

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Luke Rockhold -225 vs Jan Blachowicz +187

The line is moving against us here. Rockhold was sitting around the -190 mark on some sites, but the money has pushed the former Strikeforce Champ above the -200 mark. We do have the uncertain scenario of Luke competing at LHW for the first time, but I still think he is playable here. Jan lacks volume, his punching power is hit or miss, and I don’t see him out-grappling Rockhold here. I like Rockhold in the Gold section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Luke in my Fantasy lineup. Jan can be taken down and has struggled against opponents that try to take him off his feet. If Luke can take you down, he can finish you- either via GNP or sub. Look for Rockhold to eventually find his way to a dominant position and cash in. Add him.

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Michael Chiesa -400 vs Diego Sanchez +300

Can Diego continue his resurgence? Maybe. Possibly. Enough that I would offer a small play on him as a Counter Bet. Chiesa is a considerable step up from Sanchez’s recent opponents and I just don’t see Diego bowling through Chiesa. Sanchez was able to outwork and will himself past his last 2 foes. Not here. Chiesa is a capable striker and better ground fighter. No play straight up, but considering Chiesa and ZERO wins by knockout and Sanchez has never been submitted a Decision prop could be worth a look here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass on this option. I hope to see a control based decision win over Chiesa.

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Arnold Allen -350 vs Gilbert Melendez +275

Like a broken record, Allen is not worth considering straight up. He has had enough issues with previous takedown-oriented fighters that Gil could find an avenue to victory here. Conversely, there is so much uncertainty with Melendez that we can’t proper;y back him. We saw this line as low as -245 on some books, lower on a couple others. It would probably be closer if the layoff of Gil hadn’t been so significant. We do have a Betting Scenario that is worth looking at here and offers far more certainty and a much better price than either of these guys. I will post more below.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Not a lot of volume and most likely going the distance. I will pass here.

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Marlon Vera -400 vs Nohelin Hernandez +300

We are taking a risk here. Hernandez is coming in on short notice, but that might actually work in our favour here. There are no expectations for him considering how long he has had to prep for this fight. He has also talked about how long he has been waiting, so his motivation is at a high for sure. Vera is a streaky fighter. We have seen him really struggle against opponents he should smash and then pull it out at the end. If Hernandez can avoid that big turning point moment, he is in this one. We can’t discredit the length that will favour NH here, something Vera is not used to. Hernandez gets the call as a Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I passed here. Vera has been in there with some big hitters and stuck around. I think Hernandez wins this on the cards in most scenarios. Pass.

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Claudia Gadelha -250 vs Randa Markos +200

We are fading Gadelha here. I think she has overstayed her welcome at 115-pounds and needs to make the jump to 125. Her cardio isn’t great to start with, but in recent fights, she has been fading. Ansaroff survived early and took the fight over. So did Andrade. Markos is scrappy and has been in there with a number of good fighters. I think she has the skills to avoid or at least force Claudia to work hard early and then out scrap her as the fight advances. This could be a close fight, maybe a split decision, but I like Markos in my Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Markos won’t be subbing Gadelha and a knockout is only likely through exhaustion. Let’s pass on this one and look elsewhere.

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Alejandro Perez +175 vs Song Yadong -190

I gave Perez a long hard look here. He has won fights that he was expected to. He has won fights that he didn’t really win. Coupling that knowledge with Yadong making his first trip to the USA and we could see an upset here. All that considered, Yadong’s style is too tailor-made to beat Perez. Perez likes to sit back and counter and Yadong is going to push forward with more active and impactful offense all fight. Unless Perez can hurt/finish him- he is going to be on his back foot too much for the judges to give him the nod. I would expect a similar fight to his last one, but more definitive. Yadong takes this on the cards. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Song in my lineup. I feel like his offensive totals will be solid and finish is certainly not out of the question. Best of all. he is affordable. Decent play. Add him.

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Jack Marshman +450 vs Edmen Shahbazyan -600

I’m still waiting for Edmen to slip up. He has done well so far in the UFC and Marshman is a winnable fight, but holes remain. Not shockingly, this is a pass for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

A pass here too. While Shahbazyan is a capable finisher, he is expensive and Marshman is a tough out.

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Ismail Naurdiev -550 vs Chance Rencountre +400

I like Rencountre here. The line has jumped significantly from the open around +225, so we are getting solid value. Naurdiev is getting a big rub from the Prazeres win. It was a good win, but the circumstances (overseas, late replacement, no pressure, size advantage) all helped him to get the job done. On the regional scene, he struggled with pressure/takedowns. He did early from MP, until he faded. Rencountre can grapple and if he gets Naurdiev on the mat he could submit him or grind him out. I think the odds are off. Bronze play for Rencountre.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Chance in my fantasy lineup. He can win by sub or pick up points with takedowns. Both solid options and he gives us some solid spending flexibility. Add him.

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Julia Avila -200 vs Pannie Kianzad +170

This bout has seen a sizeable swing in the odds. Some sites had this fight near even when it first went online, but Avila has shifted back to a decent sized fav. I like Kianzad here for 2 key reasons. She is the more technical boxer and she can wrestle. Avila is aggressive, but that will only carry to you so far- especially at this level. This fight to me is a coin flip and I like the value and skills of Kianzad. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No play here. We could get a finish, we might not. Better options ahead.

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Confidence List

1. Jon Jones -600

2. Michael Chiesa -400

3. Amanda Nunes -400

4. Edmen Shahbazyan -600

5. Luke Rockhold -225

====================

6. Song Yadong -190

7. Arnold Allen -350

8. Pannie Kianzad +170

9. Jorge Masvidal +187

10. Randa Markos +200

11. Nohelin Hernandez +300

12. Chance Rencountre +400

 

Value Bet List

1. Jorge Masvidal +187

2. Pannie Kianzad +170

3. Randa Markos +200

4. Nohelin Hernandez +300

5. Chance Rencountre +400

 

Counter Bets

1. Diego Sanchez +300

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Ismail Naurdiev/Chance Rencountre Total Rounds Under 2.5 +122

Both guys can score a finish here. Naurdiev by knockout or Rencountre by submission. I was a little surprised that we are getting 2.5 rounds at plus money. Jump on it.

2. Julia Avila/Pannie Kianzad

WMMA trends towards decisions and can be a tad unpredictable. I think this fight is better left alone.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Arnold Allen to Win by Decision -120

This scenario has been pretty consistent. We have seen 5 straight FPO’s go the distance. Again, with slim pickings straight up we need to make lemonade with some lemons. Melendez is tough and despite his shortcomings, not easy to finish. I think Allen gets the better of him, but can’t score a finish. This is a solid option amongst the garbage.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

Not a Single HEF. That must be a first.

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Jon Jones to Win by TKO/KO +165

The risk here is that Jones gets the submission instead. I know we got burned with the Smith fight, but I think this is a better option. Santos is so aggressive he will either burn himself out looking for the finish or leave himself so open defensively that Jones will capitalize. Look for Jones to want to finish on the mat to avoid the risk of standing with Santos. Considering the lack of big betting options, I like this play as part of my Gold plays.

Amanda Nunes to Win by Decision +225

There is a widespread on this one. Some sites are sitting at +180 while others are closer to the +300 mark. I had Cyborg by decision over Holm and I think Nunes can offer the same option here. First, people will be looking at the Cyborg win and expecting another big finish. Fade that scenario. Secondly, Holm is a good defensive fighter and Nunes will be wary of the counter. While a finish isn’t out of the question, I think the decision prop is a solid play.

Michael Chiesa to Win by Decision +250

Chiesa has never won by knockout. Sanchez has never lost by submission. There is a first for everything, but the numbers combined with the odds make this a playable option. We could see Chiesa clip Sanchez, hurt him, and lock up an RNC. I will take a grinding decision with a solid return.

Arnold Allen/Gilbert Melendez

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Ismail Naurdiev/Chance Rencountre

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Julia Avila/Pannie Kianzad

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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