UFC 237: Namajunas vs Andrade- A New Champion is Crowned

UFC 237: Namajunas vs Andrade- A New Champion is Crowned

The Brazilian crowd went through a number of ups and downs throughout the night, but in the end, UFC 237 concluded on a high note. Jessica Andrade got off to a bit of a slow start but capitalized on a positional mistake by her foe. Rose Namajunas’s commitment to holding her position opened the door for Andrade to deliver one of the most violent finishes in UFC Championship history.

In addition to both Championship participants, let’s take a look at what the future could hold for several prominent fighters from Saturday Night.

Jessica Andrade

Her performance was far from flawless, but she executed when she needed to and left with the strap. Most people will call for an immediate rematch with the former champion and I feel Rose deserves that shot. If it happens, it should go down in the USA. If not, Joanna Jedrzejczyk is the next highest ranked fighter and has a win over Andrade. A rematch seems appropriate.

Rose Namajunas

She might opt to take a break which is understandable. If she wants a rematch with Andrade, give it to her. If the UFC goes with Joanna, let Rose square off with Claudia Gadelha to get her championship swagger back.

Jared Cannonier

Cannonier added a nice win, but more importantly, he avoided a deflating loss. The Middleweight division needs some new faces, but let’s not rush him up the ranks just yet. Derek Brunson is coming off a win, let them bang bro.

Alexander Volkanovski

It was a sound performance, but far from a blowout that would have many clamoring to see the Aussie fighting for the strap next. Defeating Aldo is damn impressive, but let’s see if Volkanovski can keep cleaning out the old guard. If he isn’t awarded the next title fight, Frankie Edgar would be a perfect opponent.

Jose Aldo

Aldo just didn’t have enough to pull this one out. He was outworked for the majority of the fight and that doesn’t bode well for his title aspirations. Josh Emmett is a top 10 ranked fighter that would be an ideal next fight for the former Champion.

Anderson Silva/ Antonio Rogerio Nogueira/ BJ Penn

I feel all three fighters, great in their time, need to walk away. Silva suffered another leg injury which should be enough to call it a career. Lil Nog got knocked out in the opening round and never really looked in the fight- his time has long passed. We had to suffer through another loss on Penn’s record slump- the UFC has run out of potential opponents he could possibly beat. I considered Thiago Alves for this spot, but I feel he has a couple of fun fights left in him. Let’s hope this trio of Legends finally make the right call and hang up the gloves for good.

Final Thoughts

My top play, Andrade came through in spades to go along with Warlley Alves in my top plays. Unfortunately, the Alves pick was washed out by Aldo’s defeat. My new approach to preparing for the main event (predict/research it first, not last) has produced a 2-0 start. I regret switching off of Moises and the overall struggle of Brazilian versus foreign-based fighters (3-5) hurt my final result. A step back in what is still a decent turnaround. On to UFC Fight Night 152 next.

 

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jessica Andrade  to WIN -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 12u
RETURN: 21.6u

 

BET #2
+ Warlley Alves   to WIN -143
+ Jose Aldo  to WIN -143
ODDS: +189
BET: 6u
RETURN: 17.33u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Anderson Silva   to WIN +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.6

 

BET #2
+ Laureano Staropoli   to WIN -110
+ Kurt Holobaugh   to WIN +110
ODDS: +301
BET: 5u
RETURN: 20.05u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Antonio Rogerio Nogueira   to WIN +125
ODDS: +125
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Irene Aldana  to Win by TKO/KO +220
ODDS: +220
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.6u

 

BET #2
+ Clay Guida  to Win by TKO/KO +100
+ Raoni Barcelos  to Win by TKO/KO +130
ODDS: +360
BET: 5u
RETURN: 23u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Warlley Alves   to WIN -143
+ Jose Aldo  to WIN -143
+ Jessica Andrade to WIN -125
ODDS: +420
BET: 10u
RETURN: 51.98u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Laureano Staropoli   to WIN -110
+ Kurt Holobaugh   to WIN +110
+ Anderson Silva to WIN +110
ODDS: +742
BET: 6u
RETURN: 50.51u

Bronze Plays

No Bronze Plays

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Antonio Rogerio Nogueira   to WIN +125
+ Jessica Andrade   to WIN -125
+ Anderson Silva   to WIN +110
ODDS: +751
BET: 6u
RETURN: 51.03

BET #2
+ Clay Guida  to Win by TKO/KO +100
+ Raoni Barcelos  to Win by TKO/KO +130
+ Irene Aldana  to Win by TKO/KO +220
ODDS: +1372
BET: 5u
RETURN: 73.6u

 

BET #3
+ Kurt Holobaugh   to WIN +110
+ Jose Aldo  to WIN -143
+ Raoni Barcelos to Win by TKO/KO +130
ODDS: +721
BET: 5u
RETURN: 41.04u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jessica Andrade $8300
+ Anderson Silva $7500
+ Laureano Staropoli $8000
+ Clay Guida $9500
+ Kurt Holobaugh $7700
+ Jose Aldo  $8400

Spares

+ Raoni Barcelos $9600
+ Antonio Rogerio Nogueira $7400
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Rose Namajunas +100 vs Jessica Andrade -125

This should be a fantastic fight! The Champ is in a tough spot. She is coming back off of a layoff caused by an injury and she is entering enemy territory. Andrade is not easy to take down. Not easy to back up. And not easy to overwhelm. Rose has to be a sniper here and capitalize on what opportunities she gets. The line has had little movement which is what I expected. Andrade will just keep coming forward, landing more strikes and more impactful strikes. Rose will struggle to turn her away. And New! Gold Play for the Challenger.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Andrade in my lineup. She is affordable and scores a tonne of points. She can do it with volume or stoppage, potentially the combination of both. She also has 5 rounds to do it over. Big potential here.

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Anderson Silva +110 vs Jared Cannonier -138

Is this Anderson’s final fight? Does he have enough left? I think he does. Cannonier rarely puts together a complete performance, even in victory. He has capitalized on opponent’s fading in a couple of his key wins. Silva won’t. In fact, Cannonier’s best offense comes when he pushes forward. Even at this stage, Silva is still a capable counter striker that will invite this approach. Anderson opened around +190 which is understandable, but not if you take a closer look. He is old, but still capable and fighting at home. Cannonier has fought once at MW and had one good round. Silva counters his way to a win as Cannonier becomes increasingly frustrated. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Anderson in my lineup. At $7500, he is affordable and if Cannonier slows down, look for Silva to get him out of there. Banking on veteran Brazilian to turn back the clock at home can be a profitable venture.

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Jose Aldo -143 vs Alexander Volknovski +120

The line on Aldo has been slowly improving all week. He opened in the -190 to -180 range depending on the book and if you look around you can get him as low as -125. It is a pretty solid deal. Volkanovski is coming off a big win, but if you look at the fight against Mendes, Alexander was getting second best for a large portion of it. I am not sold on the vertical volume of AV. He has put up some big numbers when he incorporates takedowns and those numbers have inflated his stats. Holloway has been the only fighter that has been able to put Aldo away with a consistent effort. That is nothing to hang your head about. Over 5 rounds, Volk might be able to wear him down. I’ve got Aldo at home in my Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have also added Aldo to my fantasy lineup. His recent success has come with a return to the finisher version of the former champion. Volk was dropped by Mendes and the more diversified offense of Jose could replicate those issues. I think Aldo can finish him and he is extremely affordable.

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Thiago Alves -110 vs Laureano Staropoli -110

Alves was gifted a win in his home country last time out. I don’t think he can do it again. Staropoli is far from a world beater, but his aggression and constant state of attack will put Alves on his back foot. Staropoli opened around +145 which makes sense considering he is fighting a more well-known veteran fighter at home. I expect that the general public will jump on Alves for fight day and push some value back our way. I like Staropoli in the Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Alves was hurt multiple times by Griffing and Staropoli’s aggression could put him in a position to finish the job. Even if he is unable to get it done inside the distance, the Argentinian’s volume will produce for us. Add him.

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Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +125 vs Ryan Spann -150

Lil Nog has shown he can turn back the clock. It is a big turn because he is getting a little long in the tooth, but I like him here. Spann doesn’t have big KO numbers (3) and most of his wins come via submission. It will prove difficult to sub Nog, especially in round 1. After the first 5, Spann’s winning percentage drops significantly. Add in his pair of knockout losses and the door is open for a Brazilian celebration to finish the prelims. I like ARN as a Bronze play, narrowly missing the cut in the Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Lil Nog is a good alternative. If he wins, it will most likely be inside the distance. If that is the case, his $7400 price tag is a steal. Use him in a secondary roster if you feel inclined to enter more than on in a particular tournament.

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Thiago Moises -138 vs Kurt Holobaugh +110 

I went back and forth on this fight. I understand that fighting in Brazil is huge and I understand that we probably didn’t see the best of Moises in his last fight. I’m just not that impressed. It seems like he relies on landing that one big fight-altering blow in order to get the win. If it doesn’t happen, he is hard-pressed to get the nod. Conversely, Holobaugh has looked good in his defeat. Moving to LW could help him to be more durable and while he gives up size, he will gain some speed. I like Kurt to simply outwork him and possibly even get a finish. Silver play for the American.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Holobaugh hits hard enough to score a finish and throws frequently enough to secure a volume paste decision win. Either one of those scenarios will produce points for us. He is also sub $8000 which opens up some extra cash. Add him.

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Irene Aldana -334 vs Bethe Correia +250

Nope. Correia missed weight badly. Aldana has a tendency to partake in close fights. Bethe is fighting at home. This line is not even close to being worth it. I might look at a prop. Pass

Draft-Kings-Logo

I considered IA here, but I could see this bout going the distance which is hardly worth it for this price.

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BJ Penn +400 vs Clay Guida -550

I will look at a prop bet here, but nothing straight up. No Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Guida showed he can finish when he took out Lauzon and I have been impressed with his recent efforts. Penn will most likely fold under his pressure. I like Clay for the finish. Add him.

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Luana Carolina -175 vs Priscila Cachoeira +150

Carolina opened around +250 and has swung heavily against here. Cachoeira hasn’t shown us much beyond a willingness to keep pushing forward. I am not overly impressed with Carolina, but less so with Cachoeira. This fight is either a No Play or Bronze addon. Tread carefully.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pass.

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Warlley Alves -143 vs Sergio Moraes +120

Alves opened around -160, but his value has improved. Moraes looked horrible in his last fight. Disinterested. Frustrated. If he can’t take Alves down early and often and/or snatch a finish he will struggle to outwork him on the feet. It is nice to get a chance to breakdown a fight in Brazil while removing the home-field advantage factor. Alves is the better, more complete fighter- Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t see Warlley getting the finish. I will pass.

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Raoni Barcelos -1000 vs Carlos Huachin +600

Yup, not thanks. I will look at a prop, but I doubt it hits.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Barcelos should get the finish here. He is 2 for 2 so far in the UFC. I think he makes it 3 for 3. He has power and submission skills. It is a tall order for a late notice and debuting fighter to survive. Add him as a spare and alternate him with Guida.

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Talita Bernardo -314 vs Viviane Araujo +261

Nope. Too many changes. Too much uncertainty. The risk is not worth the reward. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here as well.

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Confidence List

1. Raoni Barcelos -1000

2. Clay Guida -550

3. Jessica Andrade -125

4. Warlley Alves -143

5. Irene Aldana -334

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6. Laureano Staropoli -110

7. Jose Aldo -143

8. Anderson Silva +110

9. Kurt Holobaugh +110

10. Luana Carolina -175

11. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +125

12. Talita Bernardo -314

 

Value Bet List

1. Jessica Andrade -125

2. Anderson Silva +110

3. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +125

4. Kurt Holobaugh +110

5. Warlley Alves -143

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Raoni Barcelos to Win by TKO/KO +130

My only concern here is potential that Barcelos takes him down and submits him. Huachin could be vulnerable on the feet and get taken down quick. We could still get a GNP finish on the floor. Barcelos might opt to stand and trade and catch an over aggressive and inexperienced opponent early. I like that we are getting plus money on this fight.

2. Talita Bernardo/Viviane Araujo

I don’t want to invest too much into this fight with all the uncertainty. Pass.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
8
11
12
3 of 12 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
126650%

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FPO Candidate

1. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira/Ryan Spann

I will pass here. I’m already on the dog. I could easily see either man getting an early finish or this fight turning into a sloppy grind fest in the latter half. Best to keep it simple.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
115645%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
82625%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Rose Namajunas +100 vs Jessica Andrade -125

2. Anderson Silva +110 vs Jared Cannonier -138

3. Jose Aldo -143 vs Alexander Volknovski +120

4. Thiago Alves -110 vs Laureano Staropoli -110

5. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +125 vs Ryan Spann -150

6. Thiago Moises -138 vs Kurt Holobaugh +110

7. Warlley Alves -143 vs Sergio Moraes +120

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
66293744%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
66303645%

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Prop Bets

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira/Ryan Spann

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Irene Aldana to Win by TKO/KO +220

Correia’s chin has been quietly growing concern. Rousey KOed her. Holm head kicked her into oblivion. Marion Reneau nearly knocked her out. Aldana came to the UFC with a history of stoppage wins, but none yet. I think she can get her out of there. A hard weight cut, long layoff, and diminishing skill set.

Clay Guida to Win by TKO/KO +100

Penn’s vaunted durability is gone. His cardio was always a concern and is far worse now. Clay should be able to push and eventually put him down as he tires. Guida’s striking has looked a little better with TAM. It should be enough here.

Raoni Barcelos/Carlos Huachin

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Talita Bernardo/Viviane Araujo

See the Betting Scenario Section.