UFC 235: Jones vs Smith- Event Recap & Bet Pack Review
In comparison to the less-than hyped UFC 234, UFC 235 boasted a pair of headlining championship fights, the polarizing Jon Jones, and an impressively stacked card from top to bottom. While a number of early fight lived up to the hype, the final 2 bouts of the card were underwhelming.
In the co-main event, Kamaru Usman took home the Welterweight straps with an impressive one-sided decision victory over Tyron Woodley. The closing contest on the card saw Jon Jones retain his title with an equally impressive performance. Unfortunately, Jones was unable to punctuate his triumph with a finish which took a little bit of steam of his title defence.
To date, UFC 235 proved to be my best event of 2019. I finished the card with a solid 10-2 record, including a 4-pack of big upsets. I narrowly missed out on Robbie Lawler adding to the night with a stoppage win over the debuting Ben Askren.
My Bet Pack produced some big wins. In the HBC, a total of 6 winning bets returned 91.71 units, including wins for both my Gold Plays and my #1 Silver Play. The Casual Betting Cluster won 53.85 units on the strength of my Gold Play. My remaining 5 CBC bets all came up 1 leg short with Jones not getting the TKO finish, Munhoz failing to score a submission, and the Lawler loss busting my parlays. The entire Premium Bet Pack can be seen below.
With so many big fights, there are lots of interesting storylines coming out of Saturday night. Let’s take a look at some of the significant outcomes.
Jon Jones def. Anthony Smith by Decision
Jones pitched a shutout, but his performance left me wanting more. Maybe more credit should be given to the challenger for avoiding the finish. After the early exchanges, Jones nullified anything that Smith had to offer and Anthony offered less and less as the fight went. Regardless of the outcome, it was a dominant performance.
Up next, Jones needs to continue to welcome all-comers and put his title on the line against Thiago Santos. Another former Middleweight, Thiago has been impressive since coming to Light Heavyweight and will certainly offer the Champ a new challenge to overcome.
For Smith, he has a pair of options. He certainly can make a solid run at 205 and carve out a career as an action fighter near the top of the division. If he still wants to pursue UFC Gold, his resume is strong enough that a couple of quality wins at Middleweight would put him back in the mix. I’d favour the latter and a 185-return fight against Chris Weidman would be entertaining.
Kamaru Usman def. Tyron Woodley by Decision
Similar to the main event, Usman’s victory over Woodley was relatively one-sided. The former Champion seemed to be a loss for the majority of the fight. Reminiscent of his 2014 defeat to Rory MacDonald, Woodley spent the entire fight on the defensive with a look of disbelief on his face.
All the credit to Usman for his performance. He fought a dangerous Champion and nullified him. Kamaru is still a developing fighter and admitted as much. The speed at which he improves his striking will determine how long he is able to hold onto his title which could be for a long time.
Woodley talked about a title shot, but after that fight, I feel he needs to get a win before a return engagement makes sense. There isn’t a huge list of high ranking Welterweights that make sense for Tyron, so I’d pair him with the loser of Rafael Dos Anjos and Santiago Ponzinibbio to help sort the division out.
It has pretty much already been confirmed that Usman will face interim-champion Colby Covington next, but a fight with Ben Askren would also be hot after the events of UFC 235.
Ben Askren
He narrowly avoided a soul-crushing defeat only to rally to pick of the massive win. “Funky” just made his arrival in the promotion and he already had significant heat and that is good for business. He has talked about Usman, he has talked about Colby, but let’s see Askren go to work against the winner of Jorge Masvidal and Darren Till.
For Robbie Lawler, let’s pair him up with another veteran fighter that is sure to produce fireworks in Diego Sanchez.
Weili Zhang
This was a big step up for Zhang and she came through with flying colours. Tecia was unable to match her physicality and couldn’t back her off. I am a perfect 10-0 picking fights involving Torres. Let’s do Zhang versus Claudia Gadelha to continue to build her resume.
Tecia Torres has faced a trio of tough opponents and her 3-fight losing streak is not indicative of how well she has fought. A step back is in order- Felice Herrig.
Pedro Munhoz
What a fight! The sequence of events played out almost perfectly- Munhoz used his low leg to disrupt Garbrandt and forced him to brawl with him. Once the brawl was on, the technical edge of Garbrandt was off the table. Unfortunately, we didn’t get the sub win, but it was a nice upset nonetheless. Munhoz is an action fighter on the cusp of a title shot. So is Petr Yan. Please make that happen!
Is it just me or does anyone else want to see @PedroMunhozmma face @PetrYanUFC next? TAKE MY FUCKING MONEY!!!!!!#UFC235 pic.twitter.com/a0CSVNnEOS
— Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions 🇨🇦 (@KO_Predictions) March 3, 2019
Cody Garbrant has lost 3 in a row against good competition. He needs a chance to get back on track. Alejandro Perez also fought and lost at UFC 235. Let’s do that fight.
Johnny Walker
What a win! Walker put a stamp on a pretty solid opponent in Cirkunov for his 3rd consecutive win to start his UFC run. He looks like the next big thing at LHW, but I hope they don’t rush him into a program with the Champion too quickly. In fact, the post-fight injury could be a saving grace that keeps him on the sidelines while they line up the next title challenger. I would be down to see Walker face the winner of OSP and Nikita Krylov next- another solid challenge, but nothing too overwhelming.
The Rest…
Stephens put up a pretty good fight, but Zabit Magomedsharipov did enough to earn the nod. Even though Ricardo Lamas is ranked lower than Stephens, he would be a good next test for the Russian.
I already mentioned lining up Diego Sanchez and Robbie Lawler. It is probably not a good fight for Sanchez’s mental well-being, but he would love the challenge anyway.
I was looking forward to seeing Macy Chiasson at 135 pounds as the division needs some new blood. She looked pretty good, but she is still a young fighter. I like Lina Lansberg as her next opponent- a winnable fight that will also allow Macy to develop as a fighter.
Final Thoughts
I think I have said most of what I wanted to say. It was a good night overall with a solid set of predictions and bets. They don’t always go hand in hand like you would expect them too. Jones is still a force and my hat is off to Smith to go the distance with him considering how far he came to get to this point.
It was a great night, a little bit of slow ending, but I will take it considering how 2019 has been going for me. That is two solid back to back events which is something to build on. You are only as good as your last show in this business (at least to most people), so I get to bask in the glow for a little bit before we get Junior Dos Santos and “The Black Beast”.
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Kamaru Usman | To WIN | +145 |  |
| ODDS: | +145 | ||
| BET: | 7u | ||
| RETURN: | 17.15u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Zabit Magomedsharipov | To WIN | -244 | |
| + Cody Stamann | To WIN | -190 | |
| + Weili Zhang | To WIN | -125 | |
| ODDS: | +287 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 30.99u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Pedro Munhoz | To WIN | +132 | |
| ODDS: | +132 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 11.6u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Charles Byrd | To WIN | +125 |  |
| + Johnny Walker | To WIN | -144 | |
| ODDS: | +281 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.06u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Robbie Lawler | To WIN | +241 | |
| ODDS: | +241 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 13.64u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Diego Sanchez | To WIN | +200 | |
| ODDS: | +200 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 9u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Hannah Cifers | To WIN | +240 | |
| ODDS: | +240 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 10.2u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Pedro Munhoz | to Win by Submission | +400 | |
| ODDS: | +400 | ||
| BET: | 2u | ||
| RETURN: | 10u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Jon Jones | to Win by TKO/KO/DQ | -105 | |
| + Walker/Cirkunov | Total Rounds Under 1.5 | -175 | |
| ODDS: | +207 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 9.2u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Macy Chiasson | to Win Inside the Distance | -145 | |
| + Z. Magomedsharipov | to Win by Decision | +145 | |
| ODDS: | +314 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 12.42u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Kamaru Usman | To WIN | +145 | |
| + Cody Stamann | To WIN | -190 | |
| + Weili Zhang | To WIN | -125 | |
| ODDS: | +573 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 53.85u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Charles Byrd | To WIN | +125 | |
| + Johnny Walker | To WIN | -144 | |
| + Pedro Munhoz |
To WIN | +132 | |
| ODDS: | +785 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 53.07u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Robbie Lawler | To WIN | +241 | |
| + Diego Sanchez | To WIN | +200 | |
| + Hannah Cifers | To WIN | +240 | |
| ODDS: | +3378 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 139.13u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Walker/Cirkunov | Total Rounds Under 1.5 | -175 | |
| + Jon Jones | to Win by TKO/KO/DQ | -105 | |
| + Zabit Magomedsharipov | To WIN | -244 | |
| ODDS: | +333 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 21.63u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Pedro Munhoz | to Win by Submission | +400 | |
| + Macy Chiasson | to Win Inside the Distance | -145 | |
| + Kamaru Usman | To WIN | +145 | |
| ODDS: | +1964 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 61.92u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Z. Magomedsharipov | to Win by Decision | +145 | |
| + Charles Byrd | To WIN | +125 | |
| + Weili Zhang | To WIN | -125 | |
| ODDS: | +892 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 39.69u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Kamaru Usman | $7500 | |
| + Pedro Munhoz | $7700 | |
| + Johnny Walker | $8400 | |
| + Macy Chiasson | $9400 | |
| + Robbie Lawler | $7200 | |
| + Jon Jones | $9600 | |
Spares
| + Zabit Magomedsharipov | $8900 | |
| + Charles Byrd | $8000 | |
| + | ||
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Jon Jones -800 vs Anthony Smith +700
Obviously, we aren’t playing this fight. Is Smith worth a look? Maybe on some cards, he might be worth a small play, but we have plenty of betting options here. I will research a prop bet instead. No Play.
With a couple of solid dog plays, we have the cash to afford JJ. He should find success taking Smith to the mat and once he gets on top it is all downhill from there. Jones gets a finish, probably inside the first round.
Kamaru Usman +145 vs Tyron Woodley -147
I like the dog here. Usman can match Woodley with athletism and he has a better gas tank. Even if Woodley wins the first round or 2 with takedowns and top pressure, he will slow down and KU will take this one over. This fight opened nearly at even so we are getting a deal on the challenger here. Woodley has capitalized on the gaps his recent opponents’ skill set- that won’t be the case here. Gold player for Usman.
I also have Usman in my lineup. He has 5 rounds to put up solid numbers against T-Wood, most likely with clinch based offence. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a finish later in the fight. Add him
Ben Askren -260 vs Robbie Lawler +241
I’m rolling with the dog here. Askren’s style works against lower level opposition. He is able to wade forward and eat shots in order to get his hands on his opponent. That style isn’t nearly as effective at the elite level of the game. Lawler has good power and knows what to expect. When you figure in the layoff, debut, and weight cut (Askren had been fighting at 185 pounds) there are a lot of outside factors that could further inhibit Ben’s performance. Lawler opened around +145 and has steadily climbed in value. Lawler is my top Bronze play.
If Robbie wins this fight it will most like come by knockout and his low cost helps us to afford a pair of heavy hitters. Add him.
Cody Garbrandt -142 vs Pedro Munhoz +132
Working on the post-Title fight letdown scenario. It isn’t a 100% guarantee, but we have often seen elite fighters get run over by lesser competition in a spot similar to this. That being said, Munhoz is not less competition, he is pretty dangerous. The line opened around +145 and has moved a little, but we are still getting solid value. I’ve got Munhoz in my Silver section. He can win this fight in multiple ways and will capitalize on the spot his opponent is in.
Pedro joins my underdog heavy lineup. Similar to Lawler, if he wins this fight it will most likely come by finish. He has an above average power and a nasty submission attack- more than enough to put up points for a discounted price. Add him.
Tecia Torres +115 vs Weili Zhang -125
I like Tecia and have had a lot of success predicting her fights. Taking a quick look, I believe I have correctly predicted all of her fights- wins and losses. Zhang is bigger, hits hard, and more physical. Torres is going to struggle to back her off unless Weili fades quickly. Zhang opened around -165, but she is on the move and that has a lot to do with her lack of name value. Zhang makes the cut as part of my Gold play based on my success calling Torres fights.
I am going to pass on Zhang. She has a great history of getting the finish and is coming off a strong stoppage, but Torres is a tough out.
Jeremy Stephens +228 vs Zabit Magomedsharipov -244
Magomedsharipov is getting a much better return than I expected. I had him closer to -325 or higher, but depending on your site he is ranging somewhere between -240 and -265. That is a solid deal. Short of Stephens landing a big shot, Zabit is too diverse and too long for him. I am not saying Jeremy can’t knock him out, if he connects he certainly can, but the percentages are low. I see some value here. Magomedsharipov is a Gold play.
Zabit might be able to scoop up a finish here and at sub $9000 I consider moving him into the lineup as a spare to create some diversity in your lineup.
Johnny Walker -144 vs Misha Cirkunov +135
I gave Misha a long look and nearly pulled the trigger here. He has a great clinch and ground attack, but the big question is his ability to close the distance and get there. I am not sold on his ability to deal with the striking attack of Walker. He has folded before. Walker opened around -215 and has steadily been bet down to a much more playable line. The short notice is a concern, but I like the momentum Walker has and he most likely wins this fight in the early stages before the lack of prep takes hold. Silver Play.
Walker has showcased his abrupt finishing skills. He is a solid play with legit finishing ability and an affordable price. I like him. Add him.
Alejandro Perez +174 vs Cody Stamann -190
Perez could be the luckiest guy on the roster. He has consistently won fights he should have lost. Narrow decisions where he did just enough to be in the conversation and the judges gave him the nod. Stamann presents a style that should avoid that type of scenario. He has the wrestling to put Perez on the floor, good enough striking to hold his own, and the cardio needed to get the job done start to finish. Stamann has lost some value since the open, but I still like him here. Gold Play.
Stamann was in my original lineup, but I have opted to pass now. He will most likely put together 3-5 takedowns and 45-60 significant strikes, we can do better.
Diego Sanchez +200 vs Mickey Gall -224
I kept looking at Sanchez here and feeling he should lose this fight. He is Diego Sanchez and it is 2019. That being said, there is a legit avenue to victory here. Gall didn’t look great underneath Randy Brown and we have seen Sanchez control good grapplers. I think Diego’s activity rate and top game can steal him a decision in this one. Diego opened around +160 and has improved from the onset. A lot of money will go against him because of his name, but from a stylistic standpoint, I like him here. Bronze ply for Sanchez.
Takedowns and top position aren’t exactly Fantasy Point friendly. I will pass.
Charles Byrd +125 vs Edmen Shahbazyan -137
I was not impressed with Shahbazyan in his debut and felt he won largely because Stewart fought so poorly. Byrd could fall into the same pattern, but I believe he has the tools to avoid this. He is a better grappler than Stewart and should be a little quicker on the feet than Edmen. Shahbazyan’s has limited experience beyond round 1 and faded badly in his debut. Byrd could make that work for him as well. This fight opened near even, grab CB at a pretty playable line. Silver bet.
Byrd is pretty affordable at $8000 and has shown he can finish. If Shahbazyan gasses, look for Byrd to put the stamp on him. A solid spare option.
Gina Mazany +415 vs Macy Chiasson -415
Nothing doing here at this line. My big concern is whether or no Chiasson can make 135 without issue. If she can and starts gaining some solid experience, look out. I will pass on the bet.
I do have Chiasson in my Fantasy lineup. I like how aggressive she is and her physicality will hold up well at 135. Mazany likes to shoot and shoot a lot. Chiasson will sprawl and counter to back control for the eventual RNC or something finish- maybe via strikes. Add a fighter that will most likely get overlooked.
Hannah Cifers +240 vs Polyana Viana -250
Viana looked good in her debut, but got a little exposed by a fighter that traditionally has issues with grappling based fighters. Viana faded and her record indicated that was a possibility. Cifers struggled with the physicality of her opponent, but she came in on very short notice. I think she has the striking to capitalize on the gaps in Viana’s defence and potential slowdown. Cifers is a solid Bronze play with a lot of upset going down in these early fights.
Nothing doing here.
Confidence List
1. Jon Jones -800
2. Zabit Magomedsharipov -244
3. Macy Chiasson -415
4. Cody Stamann -190
5. Weili Zhang -125
====================
6. Kamaru Usman +145
7. Charles Byrd +125
8. Johnny Walker -144
9. Pedro Munhoz +132
10. Diego Sanchez +200
11. Robbie Lawler +241
12. Hannah Cifers +240
Value Bet List
1. Kamaru Usman +145
2. Charles Byrd +125
3. Robbie Lawler +241
4. Diego Sanchez +200
5. Pedro Munhoz +132
Counter Bets
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2.
3.
4.
5.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Macy Chiasson to Win Inside the Distance -145
I want to keep both options in play here. Chiasson hits hard and she has submission skills. Once Mazany has played out her wrestling and can’t find a takedown, Macy will take this fight over. I was a little surprised to see the Total set at 1.5 rounds, but I like Chiasson’s above average size to get the job done here.
2. Hannah Cifers/Polyana Viana
We could get an early submission win out of Viana, but I like Cifers to defend and find the edge on the feet. She will drag this fight deep and see Polyana slow down. I will pass and ride with the dog anyway she can.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% | |
| 11 | 2 | 9 | 18% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Zabit Magomedsharipov to Win by Decision +145
This trend has not been holding up that well this year, but we are early. Stephen is another step up in competition for Zabit and that could lead to a decision outcome. My big concern is that Magomedsharipov gets Jeremy down and picks up the sub. I will take a shot here on the scorecards.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% | |
| 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% | |
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Kamaru Usman +145 vs Tyron Woodley -147
2. Cody Garbrandt -142 vs Pedro Munhoz +132
3. Tecia Torres +115 vs Weili Zhang -125
4. Johnny Walker -144 vs Misha Cirkunov +135
5. Charles Byrd +125 vs Edmen Shahbazyan -137
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% | |
| 56 | 26 | 30 | 46% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% | |
| 56 | 29 | 27 | 52% |
Prop Bets
Jon Jones to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -105
I have seen this line around the +100 mark, but most books have it in the -105 to -115 range. That is still a deal. My only concern here is that Jones locks up a submission. Smith has had issues giving up TDs and watching Jones take Gus down and hammer on him was impressive. The finish Prop isn’t worth a look, but I will grab the TKO win and hope we don’t see that arm slide under Smith’s neck.
Pedro Munhoz to Win by Submission +400
It is hard not to take a shot here. I love Munhoz’s use of the low calf kick to throw opponent’s off balance, especially against boxers. This can create enough disruption to either create a scramble or lead to a combo that hurts Cody and leads to the sub. At this price, with Pedro’s track record- we need to have some money in play here.
Jeremy Stephens/Zabit Magomedsharipov
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Johnny Walker/Misha Cirkunov Total Rounds Under 1.5 -175
Both men have impressive finishing skills and Walker’s aggression will force the issue. Misha might be inclined to drag this fight out, but if Walker attacks he might get a finish or put himself in a spot to be finished. I like the Under here to keep both me in play.
Gina Mazany/Macy Chiasson
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Hannah Cifers/Polyana VianaSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.