• in Main Card, Mixed Martial Arts, Predictions, Previous Posts

The UFC’s latest trip to the land down under feature a card low on star power and considered by many to be underserved of a Pay-Per-View allocation. To make matters worse, the headlining Middleweight Champion fight between titleholder Robert Whittaker and challenger Kelvin Gastelum was scrapped in the hours leading up to the event. With the Champion contest off the table, former champion Anderson Silva and rising contender Israel Adesanya were thrust into the main event. “The Spider” and “The Last Stylebender” put on a 3-round show that seemed to leave everyone happy. Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for some of UFC 234’s key fighters.

Israel Adesanya

There was a lot on the line for Israel and he came through with a much-needed win. Is it enough to warrant a title shot? Not just yet. With Gastelum still in line for his opportunity, Adesanya will need another win to potentially set up a late 2019 or early 2020 shot at the gold. Former champion Chris Weidman is also looking for his ticket back to the big dance and would offer a solid stylistic challenger for Adesanya.

Anderson Silva

Anderson put on an admirable performance for a 43-year old man returning from a sizeable layoff. He indicated that he wanted an opportunity to fight at least once more. That fight would most likely take place in Brazil and would need to strike a balance between a winnable fight for Anderson, but not a squash match. Considering what we just saw from Silva, a contest with Uriah Hall is winnable and should be entertaining. Let’s do it!

Ricky Simon

At 3-0 in the promotion and coming off a win over a ranked opponent like Rani Yahya, Simon is building some solid momentum. Alejandro Perez was scheduled to fight in early March, but pulled out. If he is relatively healthy and can go again in a couple of months, that is a solid fight between fights ranked just outside of the top 10.

Montana De La Rosa

With a trio of UFC wins by submission, De La Rosa is quickly moving up the list of Flyweight contenders. There are some winnable fights for Montana amongst potential ranked opponents- Roxanne Modafferi has fought for the title and is currently sitting at #8. Jessica-Rose Clark is in a similar position and would offer De La Rosa nice jump in the ranks with a win.

Jimmy Crute

Crute remained undefeated and added a pretty solid name to his resume. He was originally scheduled to face Ryan Spann and I would like to see that fight be rebooked.

Kai Kara-France

Narrowly edging out a decision, Kara-France needs to stay active in order to make waves in a potentially dying division. Ryan Benoit is a willing striker that packs some decent power. If we want to continue to make exciting fights at 125-pounds, that pairing works for me.

Devonte Smith

Smith looked sharp! He finished Ma with relative ease and had a great post-fight interview. He appears to have a bright future. The Lightweight division is full of sharks, so let’s let this one develop, Christos Giagos is coming off a solid win and would offer a moderate step up for “King Kage”.

Kyung Ho Kang

It feels like Kang has been around for a long time, but he is still looking for his big break. He called for a ranked opponent next time out so let’s give him one; #11 Cody Stamman is stepping in on short notice for Alejandro Perez. If he picks up a win in early March, I feel he and Kang match up well for a fight this summer.

Final Thoughts

I finished the event with a record of 7-4. Every single favourite on the card was victorious, leaving my record a little underwhelming. That being said, I still feel that Raulian Paiva was the right call and should have got the nod. My Bet Pack produced a profitable fight with multiple Parlays and Props cashing. My Hardcore Betting Cluster took home 58.1 units with Gold, Silver and a pair of Wildcard plays cashing. The full pack can be seen below.

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Rani Yahya	To WIN	-105
		ODDS:	-105
		BET:	8u
		RETURN:	15.62u

BET #2 Updated*
+ Jalin Turner*	To WIN	-205
+ Montana De La Rosa	To WIN	-240
		ODDS:	+111
		BET:	10u
		RETURN:	21.08u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Sam Alvey	To WIN	+125
		ODDS:	+125
		BET:	6u
		RETURN:	13.5u

BET #2 Updated*
+ Kyung Ho Kang*	To WIN	-315
+ Devonte Smith	To WIN	-240
+ Shane Young*	To WIN	-300
		ODDS:	+149
		BET:	7u
		RETURN:	17.42u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Raulian Paiva	To WIN	+230
		ODDS:	+230
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	13.2u

BET #2
+ Wuliji Buren	To WIN	+133
		ODDS:	+133
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	9.32u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa	to Win by Submission	+165
		ODDS:	+165
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	10.6u

BET #2
+ Kyung Ho Kang	to Win by Submission	+200
		ODDS:	+200
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	9u

BET #3
+ Shane Young	to Win by TKO/KO/DQ	+375
+ Jalin Turner	to Win by KO/TKO/DQ	-125
		ODDS:	+755
		BET:	2u
		RETURN:	17.1u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1 Updated*
+ Rani Yahya	To WIN	-105
+ Jalin Turner*	To WIN	-205
+ Montana De La Rosa	To WIN	-240
		ODDS:	+312
		BET:	10u
		RETURN:	41.15u

Silver Plays

BET #1 Updated*
+ Sam Alvey	To WIN	+125
+ Shane Young*	To WIN	-300
+ Devonte Smith	To WIN	-240
		ODDS:	+325
		BET:	8u
		RETURN:	34.00u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Raulian Paiva	To WIN	+230
+ Wuliji Buren	To WIN	+133
+ Kyung Ho Kang	to Win by Submission	+200
		ODDS:	+2207
		BET:	5u
		RETURN:	115.34u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1 *Updated
+ Montana De La Rosa	to Win by Submission	+165
+ Jalin Turner	to Win by KO/TKO/DQ	-125
+ Devonte Smith*	To WIN	-240
		ODDS:	+576
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	27.03u

BET #2
+ Sam Alvey	To WIN	+125
+ Israel Adesanya	to Win by Decision	+225
+ Montana De La Rosa	to Win by Submission	+165
		ODDS:	+1838
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	77.51u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup *Updated

+ Rani Yahya	$8000
+ Sam Alvey	$7900
+ Devonte Smith	$8600
+ Jalin Turner	$8700
+ Wuliji Buren	$7700
+ Montana De La Rosa*	$8800

Spares

Betting Breakdowns

It is unfortunate that this card is so poor, because this fight should be a very entertaining scrap. Whittaker opened around the -245 mark and has slowly climbed in value. Gastelum is the type of fighter that will pull some dog money whenever possible. He is durable, with good cardio, and decent pop in his hands. Unfortunately for him, I don’t see that being enough for him. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Champ sitting around -200 or better by fight time. Whittaker outworks him over the full 5- Gold Play.

I have Whittaker in my lineup. He has the potential to finish and if not, he will have 5 rounds of action to put up the volume. There are a lot of lesser-knowns on this card, but we know what we are getting with the champion.

Anderson Silva +450 vs Israel Adesanya -475 

This is a hard-pass for me. The odds are unreal and if Anderson turns back the clock, your parlay gets busted for little gain. I will look at the prop bets to see if we can find some value.

Pass. Israel is just way to expensive.

Rani Yahya -105 vs Ricky Simon -105 

I am loving this line! A quick look at my list of successful underdog picks and I have hit on Yahya 4-times as the dog. He gets routinely undersold for what he is capable. Yes, there is a couple sizeable gaps in what he brings to the table- his striking is underwhelming and his cardio usually won’t carry him full 3 rounds. Nonetheless, he is an elite level grappler and Simon has had major issues when opponents look to take him down. Simon is active on the feet, but Yahya will drag him down, wear him out and grab a submission. Rani opened around -175, we are getting a bargain. Rani is part of my Gold Section.

Yahya also gets a call to my fantasy lineup. Either with a collection of takedowns or a submission- maybe both he will put up some decent points for your team.

Montana De La Rosa -240 vs Nadia Kassem +220 

Unfortunately, we are missing out on the big value that De La Rosa opened with. This fight was a near pick’em, but De La Rosa has steadily climbed into the role of the favourite. Kassem was underwhelming in her debut and has been out of action for a long time. Her pre-UFC success came against opponents that are all winless. These are all factors that have led people to bet Montana like crazy. She has a sound grappling attack and that should be more than enough to ground Kassem and finish here. Montana rounds out my Gold Play.

De La Rosa has a legit shot to score a submission finish and is sub $9000. Many players overlook female fighters which will make her points even more impactful. I have her as a spare, but work her into your lineups frequently.

Jim Crute -135 vs Sam Alvey +125 

Alvey is coming in on short notice, but that might actually help him here. Crute won’t have much time to prep. Considering how Alvey and Crute’s style lineup, Crute will have needed more than a week to make the needed adjustments to avoid getting caught. He is simply too aggressive by nature which will walk him into Sam’s counter strikes. Alvey opened around +175, but his value has dipped a little. Still worth a look. Top Silver Play.

Alvey is a key play in my Fantasy lineup. He will cost you less than $8000 and has the ability to end the actin for the first bell. Add him.

Devonte Smith -240 vs Dong Hyun Ma +221 

I was impressed with Smith in his debut and feel that Ma is a perfect opponent for him to further showcase his skills. Ma is just too willing to move forward which will open him up to the striking of Smith. Ma has been stopped twice in the UFC. It might take Smith a bit to get him out of there, but he is worth the bet. Silver Play.

Smith has finished every one of his wins. He should have a legit chance to get Ma out of there and if not, Ma’s willingness to take damage will help Devonte pile up the points over 15-minutes.

Austin Arnett +269 vs Shane Young -300 

Young should take this fight, but at -300, I am not going to invest. I will look at the props instead.

Arnett’s chin isn’t ironclad, but he is durable. Durable enough to overlook the $9100 price tag and find a better option.

Kai Kara-France -224 vs Raulian Paiva +230 

I was impressed with what I saw from Paiva. He moves well on the feet and the mat. He has some pop behind his strikes and can slip his opponent’s offense. Kara-France benefited from Garcia’s lack of a strong wrestling attack and willingness to go to his back. If you go back to Kai’s time on TUF, he struggled with a similar fighter in Pantoja. The length of Paiva will create issues for KK-F. We saw last weekend that looking for a decision win in enemy territory can be a mistake, but I will roll with the dog here. Paiva highlights my Bronze plays.

Raulian is cheap but he is a decision machine. I passed.

Kyung Ho Kang -345 vs Teruto Ishihara +309 

Nothing doing here. Kang should get the win, but Ishihara has just enough to offer to deter a bet.

I can see Kang getting a submission, but he is too expensive for my taste.

Lando Vannata -398 vs Marcos Rosa +358 

Lando is fun. This fight could be fun. Losing money on him at this low of a return is not fun. He can be frustrating to say the least. Pass.

Rosa has brutal TDD, so the potential for a submission win is there for Lando. He is still too expensive for me. Pass.

Callan Potter +210 vs Jalin Turner -205 

Potter is coming in on short notice and Turner is pretty damn good. Turner got smoked by Luque, but that was on short notice and at Welterweight. Even in defeat, he looked solid and held his own. Turner was near -300 at the open. This makes me like him more. He puts together an impressive performance. Silva Play.

Potter has been finished in all of his defeat and Turner hits hard and offers a superior striking attack. I expected him to be at or above the $9000 mark. At $8700, he is a solid add.

Jonathan Martinez -141 vs Wuliji Buren +133 

I went back and forth on this one. I was not that impressed with Martinez in his debut loss. He offered some decent striking on the outside, but struggled once things go in tight. He got muscled around and Buren should be to replicate those issues. Wuliji was looking good against Vera with an attack that should have success against Martinez. His takedowns and improved striking are the keys here. Bronze play for the Chinese fighter.

I added Buren based on his commitment to the takedown. I expect to see him secure 3-5 takedowns wit a decently active striking attack. He might not get the finish, but at 65-85 points he is a decent pick for the price.

Confidence List

1. Kyung Ho Kang -345 

2. Montana De La Rosa -240 

3. Lando Vannata -398 

4. Robert Whittaker -225

5.  Jalin Turner -205 

====================

6. Israel Adesanya -475 

7. Devonte Smith -240 

8. Rani Yahya -105 

9. Shane Young -300 

10. Sam Alvey +125 

11. Wuliji Buren +133 

12. Raulian Paiva +230 

13.

Value Bet List

1. Rani Yahya -105 

2. Sam Alvey +125 

3. Raulian Paiva +230 

4. Wuliji Buren +133 

5. Montana De La Rosa to Win by Submission +165 

Counter Bets

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Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

UFC 214: Cormier vs Jones 2
C. Daniel Cormier		CTRY.		#1 Jon Jones
	19-1	REC	22-1
	4W	STREAK	13W
	+230	ODDS	-245
	205	WEIGHT	205
	5'11"	HEIGHT	6'4"
	72.5"	REACH	84.5"
	38	AGE	30
COUNTDOWN TO UFC 214

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Jonathan Martinez/Wuliji Buren

Buren’s takedown-heavy attack could carry this one to a decision. I will pass here and look at the other EPU candidate.

2. Jalin Turner to Win by KO/TKO/DQ -125 

Potter has been finished in all of his defeats and is coming in on short notice. He will be at a speed deficit against Turner who is also the more technical striker. Turner turns some heads with the knockout.

FPO Candidate

1. Devonte Smith/Dong Hyun Ma

This one has the potential to be a firefight and while the durability of Ma could carry the contest deep, I don’t feel it is worth the investment considering how nasty Smith looked.

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Rani Yahya -105 vs Ricky Simon -105

2. Jim Crute -135 vs Sam Alvey +125

3. Jonathan Martinez -141 vs Wuliji Buren +133

Prop Bets

Israel Adesanya to Win by Decision +225 

The more I look at this one the more I feel like it could go the distance. Silva has only been knocked out twice in his career- once due to an injury and once because he got overconfident. Yes, he has been hurt on multiple occasions and Israel is a badass striker, but I Tavares can go the distance over 5 round- Silva can survive 3 rounds. Don’t be shocked to see a slow-paced round 1 while both men feel each other out.

Montana De La Rosa to Win by Submission +165 

This is an absolute steal and some sites are offering it at +175 or higher. DLR has picked up a trio of submission wins, including 2 in the UFC. Kassem spent a lot of her debut on her back against a less capable grappler. That is not a good recipe. Montana continues her winning ways with takedowns and eventually working toward a finish- most likely via armbar or RNC.

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Shane Young to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +375 

Arnett is a tough out, but Young brings it. Young has stopped 6 opponents by knockout and the high rate at which Arnett takes damage, a near +400 play is definitely warranted.

Kyung Ho Kang to Win by Submission +200 

Kang has a pretty solid submission game if he can get the fight to the floor. Ishihara has had trouble with ground-based opponent and his cardio isn’t great if the fight goes long. Kang should have opportunities to get the finish early or late.

Callan Potter/Jalin Turner 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Scott Johnson

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.