UFC 230: Cormier vs Lewis- Bet Pack Review

UFC 230 Quick Recap
Record: 8-3
Big Bankroll Bundle: 51.5u won
Big Reward Bundle: 68.35u won

 

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the�Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Ronaldo Souza $7700 
Fighter 2: Israel Adesanya $9100 
Fighter 3: Shane Burgos $9000 
Fighter 4: Jordan Rinaldi $7400
Fighter 5: Brian Kelleher $7900 
Fighter 6: Adam Wieczorek $8600 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Karl Roberson $8700 
Fighter 2:
Fighter 3:
Fighter 4:
 

Daniel Cormier -700 vs Derrick Lewis +550 

This is a fight we are going to stay away from with a straight up bet. There will be some late moneycome in on Lewis as casual fans recognize him from the Volkov bout and look to cash on fight day. If you plan to play Cormier maybe wait as long as possible to increase his value. I am definately looking at a prop bet here and depending on how things play out, I could post it in the Gold section- check the Parlay section for more info.

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I initially wanted to play Cormier, but with the top-heavy favourites on this card, I opted to go in a different direction. He is too expensive unless you have at least 3 big dogs to back.

Chris Weidman -172 vs Ronaldo Souza +164 

This is my #1 play of the night! Souza opened around -105 and steadily got pushed to his current dog position. Weidman is not the same fighter when he can’t score takedowns and he won’t be looking to tangle with Souza on the mat unless he hurts him. Souza has more power and appears to be the more durable fighter. We have seen Weidman start strong and then fade, so if you get that sense- hammer Souza big on a live bet. Souza is a Gold play for me.

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I have Souza in my lineup. He is very affordable and more than capable of getting the finish. I think a lot of people are underestimating his striking here and couple with Weidman’s questionable durability, Souza can get the finish without a submission. Add him.

David Branch -336 vs Jared Cannonier +350 

Branch opened around -300 and had steadily fallen to the -370 mark on some books. Shop around if you can. I think there is too much going against Cannonier here to consider a play. With so many big favourites on this card, we need to consider looking at a couple of prop bets- Branch will be one of them.

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I am going to pass here. Branch is a grinder and decision win is a legit reality.

Jack Marshman +250 vs Karl Roberson -260 

Roberson is losing value quickly. He opened as the underdog and now sits somewhere between -250 and -300. That is a crazy tumble. I was toying with the idea of Roberson in my Silver section, but instead, he drops to the Bronze level or might get left off together in the Big Bankroll play.

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I do have Roberson on my spare list, he is a slightly more affordable favourite and he has the kickboxing and sneaky submission game to snatch a finish. Add him to mix things up.

Derek Brunson +280 vs Israel Adesanya -282 

Is Adesanya the next big thing? This fight will go a long way to figuring it out. Brunson can wrestle and Brunson can crack- that could be enough to get him the victory or to get him finished. I like Israel to exploit the over-aggression of DB that has him leaning into his techniques. That chin is there to be hit and IA is a sniper.  I am leaning towards a Gold play here. I am considering Arce and Brunson as augmenting plays for my 2 big Gold bets.

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I do have him IA in my Fantasy lineup. He is slightly more affordable than DC and while there is some concern that he just sits back and potshots Brunson, I think Derek will push him and force Adesanya to fire back. A knockout, potentially in the opening round is on the table here.

Jason Knight -250 vs Jordan Rinaldi +236 

So here is a fight that I went back and forth on. A lot of people are backing Knight, but before I even started to break this fight down I was pulled to Rinaldi. He is fighting at home which is huge. Secondly, Knight is not the same fighter he was when he first debuted. He appears gunshy. A product of that mindset is that he constantly reverts to his grappling. It seems like his default move, even when hurting someone on the feet- is to pull guard. If he does that against Jordan, the New Yorker has the potential to grind him out from top position. I have always seen Knight as the type that pushes too hard early for what his cardio allows. Rinaldi uses top position to win this fight- some gained, some given. Silver Play.

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Rinaldi is affordable at $7400 and that frees us up some cash. I am not expecting a big return here on a decision win, but he could shock us with a finish. Anything over 65 points is a win for us.

Roxanne Modafferi +501 vs Sijara Eubanks -550 

This is technically a rematch going back to their TUF bout and Roxy is 4-1 when fighting an opponent multiple times. That is a testament to her preparation. That being said, I’m not sure how much things have changed since their first encounter. I won’t play it straight up, but if I can find the right value on a prop bet I will take a look.

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Too expensive for what I expect to get back.

Julio Arce -235 vs Sheymon Moraes +250 

Arce opened around the -165 range, got snatched up quickly and jacked to well over -300. That money is starting to settle now and some sites have him as low as -215. If you can, shop around. Moraes is a very good striker, but there is a blueprint to victory against him, maybe 2. He is vulnerable on the mat and/or if you push him he will slow down. Arce can do both, possibly a combination of the 2. This is one of those fights that could slip away from him if he doesn’t execute, but JA is fighting at home. Arce is an addon play in the Gold section for our big bets.

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Arce is a little too expensive for my taste. I will pass.

Ben Saunders +501 vs Lyman Good -535 

No play here. Not worth the risk of Good getting caught.

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$9500 is just a little beyond the cash in the bank to afford Good- I have to shop elsewhere.

Lando Vannata -254 vs Matt Frevola +240 

Lando needs a win in the worst way or it could be curtains. We really haven’t seen much of Frevola at this level which can make it hard to properly assess him. Additionally,  it has recently been brought to my attention that Lando has left his camp which could impact his overall performance. This is the type of fight to avoid unless we get a groovy improvement in the betting odds. Pass

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No Play here.

Kurt Holobaugh +279 vs Shane Burgos -300 

This should be a good scrap and unofficially it would be my bet for Fight of the Night. I want to see how Burgos rebounds from betting knocked out. Until I see him overcome that level of adversity, this type of line is too steep. Pass.

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Burgos is a killer and offers a similar striking game to the last man that KOed Holobaugh. I would suggest that Burgos hits harder and works the body better so he could get the stoppage quicker. Volume and/or a finish will produce here. Add him.

Brian Kelleher +116 vs Montel Jackson -122 

Kelleher has missed weight for the first time in the UFC. I still like him. Jackson struggled with his opponent’s pressure and wrestling last time out- Kelleher offers a similar approach. Unless Jackson can crack him at range, Kelleher is really going to push him, outwork him, and possibly overwhelm him. He is coming off a knockout loss, but he got hit with some bombs by Lineker before he went down. Kelleher gets the call as a big part of my Silver play.

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At sub$8000, Kelleher has a lot to offer. He carries a good pace and has some pop in his hands to go along with a sneaky guillotine. If Jackson shots, that tap could come pretty quick. If they go the distance, he could still hit 100+ points. Add him.

Adam Wieczorek -205 vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima +235 

Wieczorek opened around -400 and has come down significantly. De Lima is just too vulnerable and against a massive HW, he is going to have trouble reaching him. Look for Wieczorek to either get a TD early or drag De Lima into deep water. I have him in my Bronze section.

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De Lima has been finished in all of his UFC fights and AW offers a capable submission game. If De Lima gets put on his back by the much larger man, look for the Brazilian fighter to get overwhelmed.

1. Daniel Cormier -700 

2. Lyman Good -535 

3. Israel Adesanya -282 

4. David Branch -336 

5. Ronaldo Souza +164 

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6. Karl Roberson -260 

7. Julio Arce -235 

8. Sijara Eubanks -550 

9. Adam Wieczorek -205 

10. Brian Kelleher +116 

11. Shane Burgos -300 

12. Lando Vannata -254 

13. Jordan Rinaldi +236 

1. Ronaldo Souza +164 

2. Jordan Rinaldi +236 

3. Brian Kelleher +116 

4. Daniel Cormier to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +115 

5. David Branch to Win by Decision +130 

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Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Daniel Cormier to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +115 

The only big concern here is that Cormier goes for a sub and gets it. The reason I don’t think he will is that it could cost him control. Lewis is the type of guy that you need to keep him down once you get him down, don’t give him any room. I’m thinking he either gets his back and pounds him out or hurts him on the feet and swarms DL when he turtles up. I like this as a Gold Play, even as low as -125 which some sites have it.

David Branch to Win by Decision +130 

Branch can be a bit of a grinder and Cannonier is vulnerable to being taken down. Unless DB really opens up to go for the finish look for a clinch and top position heavy attack. He grinds his way into a Bronze or Silver play.

Israel Adesanya to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -110 

Brunson is arguably at his best when he is aggressive, unfortunately, he also opens himself up when attacks. Adesanya is a sniper and has the skills to slip and counter. Brunson has been knocked out on multiple occasions and Israel is arguably the most talented striker he has faced so far.

Jason Knight/ Jordan Rinaldi

See Betting Scenario Section.

Roxanne Modafferi/Sijara Eubanks 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Kurt Holobaugh/Shane Burgos Total Rounds Under 2.5 -115 

These guys are going to come out swinging and I don’t think you are going to see them go to the bell. Look for Burgos to land some nice body shots and pile up the damage that eventually puts KH down. I expected this line to be at 1.5 rounds so getting the extra round is gravy.

Brian Kelleher/Montel Jackson

See Betting Scenario Section.

Adam Wieczorek/Marcos Rogerio De Lima 

 

 

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