Check out my thoughts coming out of UFC 148 for the event, my predictions, Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen and everything else surrounding the event along what is upcoming for both for the UFC and Strikeforce.
*Information on the upcoming UFC on Fuel TV & Strikeforce 2 for 1 Bet Pack Deal and the potential for a 3 fo1 Deal.
UFC 148 Bet Pack
Doubles=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Constantinos Philippou 1.53 Selection 2: Gleison Tibau 1.48 =================================================== Price: $2.26 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: John Alessio 2.85 Selection 2: Dong Hyun Kim 1.69 =================================================== Price: $4.82
Shane Roller 1.45 vs John Alessio 2.85
Roller has dropped 3 in a row which makes these odds a little bit concerning. For the most part I would struggled to back any fighter having lost 3 straight, especially in this scenario when he is the favorite paying less than $1.50. Alessio faced far superior competition in his last fight and he took that fight on short notice too. I really liked him before knowing the odds and even more so now. He has a wealth of experience and since dropping to Lightweight he has looked fantastic. Until Roller breaks out of this skid he is a “Do Not Play” for me while Alessio will be worked into my betting card in several places.
Melvin Guillard 1.36 vs Fabrício Camões 3.55
Guillard’s history with submissions is a legitimate one and should create caution amongst bettors. He is the far superior striker and will have no problems out classing Camoes. On the negative, he has a tendency to get over aggressive and wild which will create openings for the fight to go to the ground. Camoes is a dangerous grappler, but he is going to need some luck to get the speedy Guillard to the floor. I would use Guillard in parlay once for the night and then stay clear after that, too much risk here and he has a tendency to have a mental lapse or two and we don’t want that costing us our night.
Constantinos Philippou 1.53 vs Riki Fukuda 2.75
Excellent Middleweight clash with the winner taking the next step. I went back and forth on this one, which suggests a small bet on Fukuda as a dog is a decent idea. Philippou has really turned a corner recently with his striking and takedown defense and if he continues that trend he should be able to use his lateral movement to avoid Fukuda’s clinch and takedown work while setting up his own striking attacks. Like I said I waivered on who wins the fight so playing Fukuda works, but I would suggest working Costa in both as a single bet and as part of a main parlay.
Khabib Nurmagomedov 2.90 vs Gleison Tibau 1.48
Big step up for the Russia, Tibau is as solid a veteran as they come. He has a tone of experience, is a lethal grappler, has developed a decent striking game, and is by far the biggest LW in the UFC. Nurmagomedov has one UFC win and the man he defeated, Kamal Shalorus, went winless in the UFC over 3 fights getting finished in each and was then cut. Khabib did get the win but I saw some things that hand me concerned especially with his striking, and I watched the fight close because I picked him to win. He has limited experience working with the cage and this should be a factor here against a guy like Tibau that uses a lot of takedowns. Tibau doesn’t pay bad at almost $1.50 and will add some nice value to your bet card, while until Nurmagomedov shows me he can compete at this level he will need to pay greater than $3.25 before I get too interested.
Mike Easton 1.80 vs Ivan Menjivar 1.95
I expected these odds to be fairly close and I was pleasantly surprised when I saw that Menjivar was the dog. Ivan has a wealth of experience against far better competition and a more diversified striking repertoire when compared to his opponent which should play a factor. Easton is a confident fighter and brings a lot of intensity into the cage, but having reviewed his win over John Dodson I was far from impressed and his two UFC wins were against lower level competition. Easton may very well rise to the occasion and this is his coming out party as far as the upper level of the division is concerned, but until he picks up a high quality win it is hard to back him. From what I have read on various sites the majority of fans are picking Menjivar to get the win, and if the betting public matches this trend these numbers will change and Menjivar’s value will drop. Get your bets on Menjivar either by himself or as part of a parlay in ASAP to avoid a drop off in value. If you are planning to back Easton wait till fight day for his value to increase; you might see these numbers flipped with him even hit the $2.00 mark.
Demian Maia 2.15 vs Dong Hyun Kim 1.69
Kim has already had a slight drop, but if you do a little shopping around you can probably still find him above $1.70. Maia is making his Welterweight debut which could be hindered by a difficult weight cut and it creates a lot of uncertainty for a fighter with already prior conditioning issues. Keep in mind that Demian is 34, which can make cutting weight difficult and if the weight cut goes bad he could struggle to keep the fight competitive beyond the first five minutes. Additionally, I haven’t been impressed with the way he has switch focus from grappling to striking. He is far from an elite striker and he would be best served by sticking with what works, but Kim will be well prepared to prevent this. Kim is a physically strong fighter with a solid base in Judo which has proven to be a good grappling discipline to help defend against takedown attempts. Kim will most likely use a speed advantage to push the pace early with his striking and as Maia slows down he may switch gears and use his own grappling on his exhausted opponent. At $1.69 Kim as some solid value and should be used both as a part of parlay or by himself, while I won’t be backing Maia until he proves he can compete at the Welterweight level.
Chad Mendes 1.20 vs Cody McKenzie 4.40
This match-up has a lot of people scratching their heads; a former undefeated top contender only one fight removed from a title shot against a 2-2 Ultimate Fighter Semi-finalist. This fight is being perceive by many as a mismatch and an easy win for Mendes. For me this type of bout has trap written all over it, the type of bet that people add to a 3 fight parlay to slightly increase the payout and when the night is over you go 3 for 4 and guess which fight you lost (been there done that in just about every sport you can be bet on). I have run the numbers and broke this fight down and I am confident that Mendes will pick up the win, but considering his diminished return I would use him sparingly to avoid that scenario where the ‘gimmie’ fight ends up costing you a sizeable chunk of your bankroll. McKenzie moving to work with the Diaz brother’s should drastically improve his striking and overall in ring performance, but this might be too much too soon. Mendes as part of a parlay is not the worst move you can make, but be cautious for the reasons I mentioned above. For McKenzie, I just don’t seem him winning this fight unless he catches Chad early with his personalized guillotine choke, but every moment that passes his ability to win the fight decreases exponentially so he isn’t a good enough investment for me even at $4.40. After doing a bit of looking I have seen some sites that have Cody as high as $5.71 which might be worth a small single play.
Patrick Cote 1.40 vs Cung Le 2.85
‘Incredible disappointment’ is what came to mind when I saw these odds. Even scouring the various betting sites I was unable to find the Canadian at anything better then $1.45. Considering Le was the favourite in his debut against Wanderlei and Cote is taking this fight on short notice after being out of the Octagon for his last 4 fights I figured Cote would be a slight dog and at this point even a pick’em would be far more exciting. Le does have the tools to win, but his age, chin, lack of activity and conditioning issues combined with Cote’s power and ability to take a punch (or kick in this instance) make it hard to back him. I wouldn’t be against a small play on Le by himself, especially if the number approaches $3.00. Cung does have a solid wrestling background and although he has seldom used it in the past (mostly for defensive purposes) with Cote’s past issues with competent grapplers it wouldn’t shock me to see Le try and catch him off guard with a takedown or two. Le will most likely be done with another defeat here and this should push him to be better. I don’t mind using Cote as part of one parlay, but I wouldn’t be against not touching him at all either.
Tito Ortiz 3.35 vs Forrest Griffin 1.31
Fairly lopsided odds for a head to head series that is officially tied at one win apiece. A case could be made for Griffin having won both fights and in reality Forrest is at a better stage of his career then Tito who is planning to retire following the conclusion of this bout. As much as Tito has struggled of late, Griffin hasn’t exactly been burning down the competition either with his last fight a one sided knockout against Shogun Rua. Tito’s key to victory is his power double and ability to keep Griffin on his back. This is where the problem lies; while Tito did stun Ryan Bader with a quick shot, he hasn’t recorded a victory via any form of knockout since 2006 against Ken Shamrock. So unless he is able to hurt Griffin early, Tito is going to be forced to go bell to bell landing takedowns which is something he has struggled with in the later rounds. Ortiz will be fired up with the end of his career in sight and as we saw with the Bader fight anything can happen, but Griffin should be able to survive early and eventually take control of the fight. Ortiz at $3.35 is an interesting prospect, and if you have a little extra on the bankroll you could consider him as a small play. For Forrest his value is limited but not terrible. He has made some pretty strong comments prior to this fight and I expect him to back them up, so I would suggest using him as part of a parlay or doubling him up with an underdog pick.
Chael Sonnen 3.10 vs Anderson Silva 1.34
First off I picked Chael Sonnen to win at UFC 117 and I am doing so here again so I will be playing him by himself and as part of my main parlay. $3.10 is far from the best price I have seen the challenger at, with some sites floating him as high as the mid $3.50’s. So if you have the option take a look around before laying your money on the line in order to maximize your value. Combining Sonnen with another fighter on the card is also a solid option; Sonnen and Kim would have a nice return. As far as betting on Silva is concerned, many people (clearly the odds makers) are convinced he will get the win here, but it is hard to back him based on his performance from their first fight, especially when he only pays $1.34. At the same time, (I don’t have the numbers in front of me) but if you are planning to back the Champ financially these are probably some of the best odds we have seen in a while so have at it. Also if you are considering backing Silva you can probably find some more lucrative odds in the prop bet section. Taking him to win by knockout will increase the value considering how tough Sonnen is to KO or a Silva submission win would be an okay bet based on Chael’s past history with submissions and Silva success submitting other grappling based opponents (Sonnen, Henderson, and Lutter). Either way I am backing Sonnen here, he has made strides to work on his submission defense and until Silva shows he can defend against his takedowns I’m sticking with Chael.
1. Chad Mendes
2. Gleison Tibau
3. Dong Hyun Kim
4. Patrick Cote
5. Chael Sonnen
1. John Alessio $2.85
2. Ivan Menjivar $1.95
3. Chael Sonnen $3.10
4. Dong Hyun Kim $1.69
5. Gleison Tibau 1.48
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Anderson Silva to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- $2.00 or Win by Submission- $3.75– If this fight goes to a decision there is a good chance that Chael’s wrestling will carry the day, which means that is Silva is going to win he will need to stop Chael either by knocking him out or submitting him. Silva doesn’t pay well to win straight up so take a look at one of these options to increase the value of the champion.
Chael Sonnen to Win by Submission- $11.00– There is a reason that this outcome pays so high, but the combination of Sonnen’s wrestling, his decision to finally train with a talened BJJ Black Belt (Vinny Magalhaes) and the fact that Silva has been submitted twice in his career make this a play worth some consideration. I wouldn’t bet the farm, but @ $11.00 you dont’t have to in order to get a decent return.
Patrick Cote to Win by KO/TKO/DQ– Taking Cote to win by knockout will help to increase his payout, but shop around and see what you can find probably something in the $2.00 range maybe slightly higher. He has power and the chin to walk through Le’s attack while Le seems to be susceptible to the KO especially after he starts to slow down.
Dong Hyun Kim/Demian Maia Total Rounds Over 1.5– Kim is a grinder and will need to be cautious against Maia on the ground if the fight goes there. Neither guy has shown any real finishing ability with their striking so if it does remain standing it is most likely going the distance.
Dong Hyun Kim to Win by Decision- $2.00– Taking this option will help to improve Kim’s value. I don’t see him submitting the BJJ ace or knocking him out so this bet makes sense. Consider using Kim by decision in place of Kim to win straight up. Costa
Philippou/Riki Fukuda Total Rounds Over 1.5– A pair of tough fighters with a combined 20 of 36 fights going he distance, including 5 of 6 in the UFC. Philippou has never be finished and Fukuda just once. Costa’s power is probably the biggest threat to this outcome but outside of that I expect to see this fight go at the very least beyond the middle of round 2.