At UFC 144, a new Lightweight Champion was crowned as Ben Henderson defeated Frankie Edgar in a close hard fought decision victory. Henderson’s win extended Kamikaze Overdrive’s Main Event Correct Prediction Streak to 6 consecutive Events. The rest of the card was an interesting event full of upsets, dramatic comebacks and controversial decisions. Kamikaze Overdrive’s Betting Packs failed to cash for the first time in 4 events, with the Statistic Star Parlay coming up just short (see below for results). At UFC 144 a total of 7 betting underdogs emerged victorious, with the biggest being Tim Boetsch’s ($4.20) huge come from behind victory over Yushin Okami. Adding to the list Kamikaze Overdrive did predict the second biggest upset of the night with Vaughan Lee ($4.00) defeating Kid Yamamoto, and as mentioned above Henderson ($2.00) over Edgar. Unfortunately with a 5-6 overall record this was not my best night of predictions, but by no means was this a terrible prediction night, see my thoughts on the event below for more details.
The Kamikaze Overdrive Grand Prix Prediction Tournament has come to an end!
UFC 144 Score- Kane Gatty- 14 Clouble-11
Total Score: KaneGatty- 46 Clouble- 54
-Congrats to both competitors and keep your eyes out for the next tournament
-Cariaso/Mizugaki was a surprising decision, the fight played out pretty close to what I expected with Mizugaki using his grappling to control the fight. Cariaso most likely earned the victory on the strength of this striking effectiveness and work off his back despite Mizugaki landing more overall.
– Cantwell is a talented fighter, but seems to be unable to compete at this level. He is a perfect candidate to go to Strikeforce and develop
-Fukuda has talent and will make waves at the mid-level of the division
-Vaughan Lee has got skills and picked up the biggest win of his career.
-Kid was doing well, but kept attempting the same combination not adjusting when his opponent did. His time in the UFC could be over.
-Gomi was fired up after the win and I’m glad to see him do it at home, but he didn’t look that impressive.
-Pettis/Henderson II seems like a logical next step.
-Lauzon had another opportunity to move to the upper echelon and came up short, this will be a difficult defeat for him.
– Hioki looked good, Bart seemed to get things going in round 2 with the striking but couldn’t keep it standing. I don’t know how much of a threat to Aldo Hatsu is but he is certainly an interesting opponent in a division looking its for next contender.
-Okami looked fantastic for the first two rounds, it is too bad that he was fighting a 3 round fight.
-Despite picking Okami to win and watching him fail in the third after totally dominating his opponent, my hat is off to Boetsch this is easily the biggest win of his career. Okami was a stylistic nightmare for him and it showed, but Boetsch powered through and should be rewarded with another top ranked opponent: Boetsch vs Bisping or Munoz seems like two interesting possibilities.
-I predicted that Akiyama would defend the majority of Jake’s takedowns, which was correct. No amount of fight footage or research would have helped me to predict that Shields would outstrike him. The weight cut probably slowed Akiyama down, but Jake simply outworked him and deserved the win. It is nice to see Jake rebound after the death of his Father. Yoshihiro is probably on his way out, but just like Cantwell the UFC should consider moving him over to the Strikeforce MW division to add depth.
-Mark Hunt delivered what many people were hoping for! Is Hunt a contender at HW? If he can keep his fights standing, yes he is. Who is next? I don’t know.
-Kongo had a good run going but will need to start over and at his age it could be a difficult road.
-Jackson needs to take his career serious or walk away. If he had injuries that truly prevented him from having a good camp that is one thing but I just don’t think his head is in it anymore as his claim to being a streetfighter showed up as he was outclassed by a Mixed Martial Artist.
-Ryan Bader earned a solid win and added a solid name to his resume, Bader vs Stansilav Nedkov would be a decent next fight.
-Edgar/Henderson did not disappoint, it was a tough call but Ben simply did more damage with his attack then Frankie was able to. The difference in this fight compared to the Maynard bouts was that Maynard did a lot of damage in a short period of time versus Henderson who did less overall damage but spread it out and won more rounds as a result.
-Frankie doesn’t not need to drop to FW as he could easily earn a return engagement with one win.
-Despite my overall 5-6 record I was satisfied and could easily have gone 7-4 or 8-3 if Okami survives round 3, Mizugaki gets a home town decision, and Akiyama does more then just avoid the takedowns. But those are the breaks of the prediction game, there is always next week , literally 2 event in two days will be a nice way to rebound.
-On a side note in the Prop Pack the three fights that I took as FOTN candidates won all 3 bonuses.
Pettis, Anthony $1.40 Selection 2: Palaszweski, Bart $2.55 Selection 3: Kongo, Cheick $1.33 Selection 4: Jackson, Quinton $1.38 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $50.00 Price: $6.56 Payout:$328.00 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Palaszweski, Bart $2.55 Selection 2: Mizugaki, Takeya $1.50 Selection 3: Kongo, Cheick $1.33 Selection 4: Lee, Vaughan $4.00 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $40.00 Price: $20.35 Payout: $814.00 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Jackson, Quinton $1.38 Selection 2: Fukuda, Riki $1.40 Selection 3: Okami, Yushin $1.22 Selection 4: Henderson, Ben $2.00 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $50.00 Price: $4.72 Payout: $236.00 =================================================== Parlay #4- Statistics Star Parlay (3 consecutive wins total payout: $880.60) =================================================== Selection 1: Mizugaki, Takeya $1.50 Selection 2: Fukuda, Riki $1.40 Selection 3: Pettis, Anthony $1.40 Selection 4: Henderson, Ben $2.00 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $5.88 Price: $65 Payout: $382.20 =================================================== Bonus Parlay- Upset Special =================================================== Selection 1: Akiyama, Yoshihiro $3.30 Selection 2: Palaszweski, Bart $2.55 Selection 3: Lee, Vaughan $4.00 Selection 4: Henderson, Ben $2.00 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $25.00 Price: $67.32 Payout: $1683.00