Super Bowl LIV: Kansas City vs San Francisco Prediction & Bets

Super Bowl LIV: Kansas City vs San Francisco Prediction & Bets

That special time is almost upon us. The wait is almost over. On Saturday, February 8th, at 2PM the Seattle Dragons and DC Defenders will take to the field, officially harkening the rebirth of the XFL! Vince McMahon’s venture into professional football will be returning after a nearly 20-year hiatus. The 2020 incarnation of the league will feature 8-teams playing over a 10-week regular season and 2-week playoff structure that culminates in a Championship game in late April.

But, before we get to all of the XFL excitement there is a small matter that needs to be taken care of; Super Bowl LIV.

As tends to be the focus of my site, I will be placing a wager on this weekend’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

Last year I nailed the Patriots to cover the spread and the Total to go Under (which came in with ease). Check that out here.

On that note, let’s take a look at the 2020 installment set to go down this Sunday in Miami.

SF 49ers vs KC Chiefs -1.5

The Chiefs take the field on Sunday as slight 1.5 point favourites, the closest spread involving KC since their December 8th trip to New England. They were a 3-point underdog heading into Foxborough and walked away with a 7-point win.

That same weekend, San Fran visited Drew Brees and the Saints as a very slight 1-point dog and pulled out an entertaining 48-46 victory in one of the best games of the season.

Both teams covered the spread in their respective Divisional and Conference championship games. All 4-games were set at greater than a touchdown.

KC has covered 7 of the last 8 games, earning a push at -10 in their final regular-season game.

The 49ers came up short against the spread in 2 of their final 3 regular-season games, including an upset loss to the Falcons as 10.5 points favourites.

The last time these two clubs shared the same field was back in 2018 with the Chiefs taking an 11-point at home.

Kansas City -1.5 -110

I’m backing Kansas City to cover the spread which seems like the slightly more popular bet, but not by much. With KC struggling to get off to a strong start in each of their last two games before rallying, many experts are forecasting that the 49ers will be able to capitalize on a potential early stumble and grind their way to victory. I don’t see it quite like that.

Prognosticators are quoting that defense wins championships, referencing the impressive Richard Sherman/ Nick Bosa led San Francisco defenders as the key to victory.

I do agree that it will be defense that plays a significant role, but not how it many are expecting.

Tennesse attacked the Cheifs with best running back in the game in Derrick Henry. Henry put together a solid start before the KC defense made the required adjustments and forced the Titans to put the game in the hands of Ryan Tannehill. Patrick Mahomes and company put their foot on the gas and the Titans couldn’t keep up.

Look for Andy Reid and the KC brain trust to take a similar approach here. San Fran has a solid running game and leaned heavily on it against Green Bay. Jimmy Garoppolo had just 69-yards passing.

Garoppolo is a better quarterback than Tannehill, but can he go toe to toe with the diverse weaponry of the KC offense?

With a myriad of options at wide receiver, a talented tight end, their own capable running game, a dynamic return man, and arguably the most creative and dangerous QB in the league- KC is going to be too much for even the talents of the 49ers D. This will force Jimmy G to need to be letter-perfect on his side of the ball- he won’t be.

San Fran is fast and they bring pressure. Patrick Mahomes’s ability to counter that pressure with his legs and/or a quick check down option will force the 49ers to be less aggressive. The speed of the KC receivers and the ability of Travis Kelce to find open space will allow the Chiefs offense to turn small plays into big ones.

San Fran will have their moments and will probably hold the lead at some point, but the potency of the KC offense will carry the day.

Over 54.0 -110

In addition to the KC cover, I like the Over 54. Last year’s offensive dud will scare a few people away from the expectation of big point production, but I am going to roll with it.

KC has gone over the total in 3 straight games, but just 5 of their last 10. That 50% clip is a little deceiving. The Chiefs have averaged 31.1 points over those 10 games. In the 5 games when they went Under the total, their opponents were held under 20 points in all 5 games, under 10 in 3, and scored just a field goal on 2 occasions.

San Fran has scored 20+ points in 9 of their last 10 games. They will put points on the board here too, but so will KC.

Take the Over.

Final Prediction and Bet

These two squads will go back and forth and there will most likely be a lead change or two with key players making big plays on both sides of the ball. As the game progresses, KC will continue to produce and force the San Fran D out of their usual pressure-based schemes. Garoppolo will have a good showing, but his inexperience will be a factor as he struggles to put up the required stats and match Mahomes.

Mahomes builds on his big-game experience acquired last year against New England and is supported by a coach that is 22-5 when he has 2-weeks to prepare for an opponent.

Kansas City 48   San Francisco 27

KC -1.5 -110 & Over 54.0 -110 | Odds: +264 | Bet: $200 | Return: $728.92

 

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Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.

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