Super Bowl LIII: Patriots vs Rams Free Bets- WINNER

Super Bowl LIII: Patriots vs Rams Free Bets- WINNER

Super Bowl LIII will go down on February 3rd, 2019 and features a rematch of sorts as Tomy Brady and the New England Patriots take on the Sean McVay led Los Angeles Rams. Brady and the Pats battled the then St. Louis Rams almost 17 years ago at Super Bowl 36- the Patriot won 20-17.

This time around, Jared Goff will take his shot at upending the future Hall of Famer when the football world converges on the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia. Check back closer to the big game for my Super Bowl bet(s). Last season I correctly predicted and parlayed the Philadelphia Eagles to upset the Patriots and hit the Over 45.5.

Odds posted: January 22, Bet365.com

Prediction and Bet:

The quarterback and coach pairings couldn’t be more different. The dynasty that is the New England Patriots is led by Tom Brady in his ninth appearance in the big game alongside the legendary Bill Belichick. On the other, 33-year old Sean McVay is in just his second season as the head coach of the Rams alongside 3rd-year quarterback Jared Goff.

The experience factor certainly favours the New England Patriots. There is the legit potential that the far less experienced Rams get caught up the in moment, at least early, and struggle to settle in.

One of the things that makes the Patriots so difficult to beat, is their coach’s ability to take away their opponent’s best weapon. The Rams have an explosive offence. Belichick is going to plan around taking the Ram’s big weapons out the equation.

How will they do it? By keeping Goff, Gurley, and the rest of the Rams’ offence on the sidelines. Brady’s offensive line has been very good at holding for him, allowing him to make reads down the field and/or pickup short yardage with check down options.

Against the Chiefs, another explosive offense, the Pats had 36 first downs to KC’s 18 and 94 total plays to just 47. New England’s time of possession was almost double their opponent’s.

The Ram’s red zone offense is a major concern. During the regular season they ranked 19th in the league, scoring on just over 56% of their possessions. Against KC, the Patriots scored on 80% of their opportunities while the Rams completed just 50% of their chances in New Orleans.

With the Patriots controlling the clock and keeping the Rams offense off the field, if LA isn’t converting on their limited scoring opportunities, that is a recipe for disaster.

Another major concern for the Rams is the lack of production from Todd Gurley. He would help the Rams to counter the Patriots attempts to control the clock. They found success against New Orleans once C.J. Anderson started to move the ball. With 2 weeks to prep, the Pat’s D will find success holding the opposing running backs at bay. They shutdown the run games of both San Diego and KC and ranked 11th in rushing yards allowed per game.

The Rams came in at 23rd in yards allowed per game this season which further adds to the concern that they won’t be able to get off the field in key scenarios. If they load up the box to stop Michel, White, or Burkehead, Brady will pick them apart down the field. If they focus on taking away Brady’s options downfield, look for the RBs to pick up yards with runs and short passes.

The Bet:

I have the Patriots to cover the spread -2.5 at -110.

I also like the Under 56 points.

With the Patriots focused on ball control, the points scored per minute will be reduced. The public perception is that this will be a shootout and the Over is a popular play. The Rams have gone over 56 points just once in their last 7 games, hitting the Over just once in their last 4 games when the total was set at 50 or more points.

For a Bonus play to add to a possible parlay, the Washington Capitals currently sit at -120 at home against my Boston Bruins. Washington is struggling, but so are the Bruins. The Capitals are scoring goals which is an area the Bruins have issues with right now. Moreover, Washington has beat Boston in 15 straight games. This is a great bargain to jump on to add to your bet.

 

BET #1
+ NE Patriots to WIN -2.5 -110
+ NE/LAR   Under 56.0 -110
ODDS: +264
BET: $150
RETURN: $546.69

BET #2
+ NE Patriots to WIN -2.5 -110
+ WAS Capitals  to WIN -120
ODDS: +250
BET: $150
RETURN: $525

or

BET #1
+ NE Patriots to WIN -2.5 -110
+ NE/LAR   Under 56.0  -110
+ WAS Capitals  to WIN -120
ODDS: +583
BET: $100
RETURN: $683.33