UFC on ESPN 4: Dos Anjos vs Edwards Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Steven Peterson |
to Win | +100 |  |
| + Alexander Hernandez | to Win | -200 |  |
| ODDS: | +200 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 24u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Juan Adams | to Win | -110 | |
| + Walt Harris | to Win | -163 | |
| ODDS: | +208 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 24.64u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Roxanne Modafferi | to Win | +120 | |
| ODDS: | +120 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 13.2u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Raquel Pennington | to Win | +125 | |
| ODDS: | +125 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 11.25u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Leon Edwards | to Win | -138 | |
| + James Vick | to Win | +120 | |
| ODDS: | +279 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 18.97u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Ray Borg | to Win | -188 | |
| + Jin Soo Son | to Win | -188 | |
| ODDS: | +135 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 7.04u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Klidson Abreu | to Win | -175 | |
| + Ben Rothwell | to Win | -188 | |
| ODDS: | +141 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 7.22u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Steven Peterson |
to Win by Decision | +258 | |
| ODDS: | +258 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 10.74u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Roxanne Modafferi | to Win | +120 | |
| + Raquel Pennington | to Win | +125 | |
| ODDS: | +395 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 14.85u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Leon Edwards | to Win | -138 | |
| + Juan Adams | to Win | -110 | |
| ODDS: | +229 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 13.17u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Juan Adams | to Win | -110 | |
| + Steven Peterson | to Win | +100 | |
| + Walt Harris | to Win | -163 | |
| ODDS: | +531 | ||
| BET: | 9u | ||
| RETURN: | 56.82u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Alexander Hernandez | to Win | -200 | |
| + Steven Peterson | to Win | +100 | |
| + Walt Harris | to Win | -163 | |
| ODDS: | +384 | ||
| BET: | 7u | ||
| RETURN: | 33.88u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Roxanne Modafferi | to Win | +120 | |
| + Raquel Pennington | to Win | +125 | |
| + Walt Harris | to Win | -163 | |
| ODDS: | +699 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 47.92u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Leon Edwards | to Win | -138 | |
| + James Vick | to Win | +120 | |
| + Juan Adams |
to Win | -110 | |
| ODDS: | +624 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 43.46 |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Ray Borg | to Win | -188 | |
| + Jin Soo Son | to Win | -188 | |
| + Klidson Abreu | to Win | -175 | |
| + Ben Rothwell | to Win | -188 | |
| ODDS: | +465 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 28.25u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Leon Edwards | to Win | -138 | |
| + Steven Peterson | to Win by Decision | +258 | |
| + Raquel Pennington | to Win | +125 | |
| ODDS: | +1289 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 69.46u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Roxanne Modafferi | to Win | +120 | |
| + Walt Harris | to Win | -163 | |
| + Jin Soo Son | to Win | -188 | |
| + James Vick | to Win | +120 | |
| ODDS: | +1096 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 71.78u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Juan Adams | $8100 | |
| + Klidson Abreu | $8600 | |
| + Raquel Pennington | $7800 | |
| + Steven Peterson | $7400 | |
| + Walt Harris | $8700 | |
| + Domingo Pilarte | $9400 | |
Spares
| + | |
| + | |
| + | |
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Rafael dos Anjos +110 vs Leon Edwards -138
This stands to be a very competitive fight with both guys taking control 1 round to the next. The odds reflect the potential swings that we could see on Saturday night. Edwards opened around -105 and fell to as low as -165 and rebounded since with some sites offering the Brit as high as -120. We have seen a number of main events end with upsets, honestly to me (regardless of the odds) this is a pick’em fight. There are lots of betting options on this card and this one could go either way. Silver play.
I don’t see Edwards getting the finish. I will pass here.
Walt Harris -163 vs Aleksei Oleinik +137
This line has shifted some, but Harris has remained the favourite from start to finish. I like the fact that these 2 trained together because Walt should know what to expect with AO tries to close the gap. I think the factor that is helping us is that AO has pulled off multiple upsets before on the basis of his tricky submission game. Look for Harris to maintain separation and counter every time that AO moves forward. Harris is too quick, too big, too strong, hits too hard here. Harris is a Gold play.
All 12 of Harris’s official wins have come by knockout. He will get plenty of opportunities to land, hurt, and finish AO. He gets the job done. Add him for the finish.
Juan Adams -110 vs Greg Hardy -110
This should be a quick fun fight or a slop-fest. Adams is the more complete fighter, but Hardy offers the greater threat. Hardy is also the more well-known option and that has helped us gain some value after Juan opened around -155. Look for the wrestling to be the difference-maker here. I feel like the value makes this a solid play. Gold Bet for Adams.
Adams is very affordable at $8100. He should be able to score points with his wrestling and most likely secure a finish from top position. Add him to your lineup.
Dan Hooker -143 vs James Vick +120
I feel like I have a good read on Hooker. A lot of predictors were on him over Barboza which I felt was a clear wrong move. I don’t feel nearly as comfortable here as I did with Barboza, but Vick has the tools to win this fight. Vick needs to use volume and movement. If he can stay away from that one fight altering sequence, Vick should be able to outwork a fighter that has a bad record in decisions. We aren’t getting the value on Vick he had at the open around +145, but he is still a solid Silver Bet for me.
Hooker is tough out. I don’t see Vick getting the finish, but a decent decision win. Not enough to play him. Pass.
Alexander Hernandez -200 vs Francisco Trinaldo +170
Henandez is starting to drift too far from where I like him. He isn’t there yet, but there is still time. He opened around the -175 mark and you can still bet him at -190 on some sites, but most have him around -200 to -205. I still like here him. Unless the Cerrone fight killed his confidence, Hernandez has the tools and home-field advantage here. I like him in the Gold section to be pair up with another one of my top plays in the HBC. I am not sure if he makes the cut in my CBC parlay.
I thought about backing Hernandez here, but he is just a little more expensive than I can afford. Pass.
Andrei Arlovski +162 vs Ben Rothwell -188
This is a rematch from a while back. It most likely comes down to who has improved/degraded more. AA won the first, but I feel like he has regressed since their first meeting. Rothwell has potentially improved or at least worked out the issues that cost him their first meeting. Ben opened around -215 so we are getting a decent price here. He hasn’t won in a while due to the layoff and some bad luck. AA has had similar issues finding a win despite being more active. I like Rothwell in my Bronze section.
Rothwell could snatch a finish here, but I will stay away from the potential slow-moving decision outcome that could be just as likely.
Alex Caceres -125 vs Steven Peterson +100
Caceres is the more well-known fighter here and Peterson hasn’t exactly been loading the win column up which are scenarios that are helping us here. Peterson has good takedowns and is an aggressive striker. Caceres can be taken down and struggles with pressure. He likes to sit at range and get creative. I like Peterson here to outwork him and grab this fight on the cards. Gold Play.
Peterson’s fantasy price is unreal cheap. I don’t know if he can snatch a finish here, but his volume combined with takedowns and the positive impact on our bankroll makes him a solid addition. Add him.
Irene Aldana -150 vs Raquel Pennington +125
It is important to realize how these lines are made. Aldana has won 3 in a row. Pennington has lost back to back fights. That impacts both how the line is set and how the public bets each fighter. Pennington lost to arguably the best WMMA competitor of all time. Her next fight fell under the Post-title fight letdown scenario against another top fighter in GDR. Pennington shouldn’t be written off here. Aldana has been winning but against lower competition and it has been far from easy. I like Pennington as a Silver play here to rebound nicely.
Rocky gets the fantasy call here. Her opponent has a pretty basic striking defense and has been hit 100+ times on 3 occasions. I feel like Pennington can do the same, mix in a couple of takedowns, and potentially snatch a submission win if they hit the floor. Her price opens up lots of potential as well. Add her.
Klidson Abreu -175 vs Sam Alvey +150
I’ve never been a big Sam Alvey fan. His fighting style is flawed and opportunistic at best. That is hard to bet with or against. Abreu lacks the strong striking skills to make this a slam dunk, but unless Alvey can KO him this is a tough fight for the American to win. I like Abreu in the Bronze section.
I have Klidson in my fantasy lineup because when Alvey losses, he gets finished. When Klidson wins, he usually finishes. Play the numbers.
Jennifer Maia -143 vs Roxanne Modafferi +120
This fight was a pick’em at the open, but I feel that a lot of the public saw the loss to Maia on the record of Roxanne and went with Maia. I get that. Roxanne has improved since their first meeting and she has been really keying on the wrestling component of her attack. That also happens to be a significant weakness that Maia has struggled with in previous action. Maia also has issues with being a bit of a slow starter. That will cost her here as well. Moddafferi continues to defy the odds. Silver play.
Nothing doing here pass.
Ray Borg -188 vs Gabriel Silva +150
Borg was nearly at -300 when he opened and he has come down significantly. Similar to Pennington, he lost his title fight and then next bout. Silva is a dangerous striker, but his avenue to victory is limited. Short of a knockout or Borg coming out flat again, Ray should give him all kinds of trouble with his more technically sound offense. Despite the big dip in line, I have Borg in the Bronze section.
I will pass here despite the submission threat that Borg presents.
Mario Bautista +162 vs Jin Soo Son -188
This is a difficult fight to get a good feel for. Both men had short camps and fought opponents way over their head for a debut. Son’s line was around -250 and has improved, but he is now climbing back closer to -200. I was considering a pass here and that might be the case. Son could find his way into a CBC play or paired with the aforementioned Borg. Bronze Play.
Son is a little too expensive for my liking, but the volume and potential for a finish is certainly intriguing.
Felipe Colares +275 vs Domingo Pilarte -350
This is a pretty easy fight to pass over. Both guys are at the start of their UFC careers and we are stilling figuring them out. Pass.
Pilarte makes the cut. He is a finisher against a fighter that didn’t impress me last time out. I feel like Pilarte has a lot of potential to score points here and will be overlooked by most players because of his lack of name recognition. Add him.
Confidence List
1. Alexander Hernandez -200
2. Walt Harris -163
3. Steven Peterson +100
4. Ray Borg -188
5. Juan Adams -110
====================
6. Raquel Pennington +125
7. Leon Edwards -138
8. Roxanne Modafferi +120
9. James Vick +120
10. Ben Rothwell -188
11. Domingo Pilarte -350
12. Klidson Abreu -175
13. Jin Soo Son -188
Value Bet List
1. Raquel Pennington +125
2. Roxanne Modafferi +120
3. Steven Peterson +100
4. James Vick +120
5. Juan Adams -110
Counter Bets
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Mario Bautista/Jin Soo Son
With this card, I plan to avoid props bets almost entirely. Nothing originally jumped off the page at me and I feel I can build on my success from last event. I will pass on both EPU options.
2. Felipe Colares/Domingo Pilarte
See above.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 27 | 11 | 16 | 41% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Steven Peterson to Win by Decision +258
I am passing on almost all props on this card, but I am still wanting to play the FPO. Caceres is pretty durable and Peterson’s style of pushing a strong pace should hold up well on the cards. We are now at 6 straight cards with a decision in this spot. Let’s make this pay.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 30 | 20 | 10 | 67% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 24 | 8 | 16 | 33% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Rafael dos Anjos +110 vs Leon Edwards -138
2. Juan Adams -110 vs Greg Hardy -110
3. Dan Hooker -143 vs James Vick +120
4. Alex Caceres -125 vs Steven Peterson +100
5. Irene Aldana -150 vs Raquel Pennington +125
6. Jennifer Maia -143 vs Roxanne Modafferi +120
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 168 | 79 | 89 | 47% | |
| 178 | 95 | 83 | 53% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 166 | 84 | 82 | 51% |
Prop Bets
Alex Caceres/Steven Peterson
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Mario Bautista/Jin Soo SonSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Felipe Colares/Domingo PilarteSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.