UFC on ESPN 4: Dos Anjos vs Edwards Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 4: Dos Anjos vs Edwards Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Steven Peterson 
to Win +100
+ Alexander Hernandez  to Win -200
ODDS: +200
BET: 8u
RETURN: 24u

 

BET #2
+ Juan Adams  to Win -110
+ Walt Harris  to Win -163
ODDS: +208
BET: 8u
RETURN: 24.64u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Roxanne Modafferi  to Win +120
ODDS: +120
BET: 6u
RETURN: 13.2u

 

BET #2
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win +125
ODDS: +125
BET: 5u
RETURN: 11.25u

 

BET #3
+ Leon Edwards  to Win -138
+ James Vick  to Win +120
ODDS: +279
BET: 5u
RETURN: 18.97u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Ray Borg  to Win -188
+ Jin Soo Son  to Win -188
ODDS: +135
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.04u

 

BET #2
+ Klidson Abreu  to Win -175
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win -188
ODDS: +141
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.22u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Steven Peterson 
to Win by Decision +258
ODDS: +258
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10.74u

 

BET #2
+ Roxanne Modafferi  to Win +120
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win +125
ODDS: +395
BET: 3u
RETURN: 14.85u

BET #3
+ Leon Edwards  to Win -138
+ Juan Adams  to Win -110
ODDS: +229
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.17u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Juan Adams  to Win -110
+ Steven Peterson  to Win +100
+ Walt Harris  to Win -163
ODDS: +531
BET: 9u
RETURN: 56.82u

BET #2
+ Alexander Hernandez  to Win -200
+ Steven Peterson  to Win +100
+ Walt Harris  to Win -163
ODDS: +384
BET: 7u
RETURN: 33.88u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Roxanne Modafferi  to Win +120
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win +125
+ Walt Harris  to Win -163
ODDS: +699
BET: 6u
RETURN: 47.92u

BET #2
+ Leon Edwards  to Win -138
+ James Vick  to Win +120
+ Juan Adams 
to Win -110
ODDS: +624
BET: 6u
RETURN: 43.46

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Ray Borg  to Win -188
+ Jin Soo Son  to Win -188
+ Klidson Abreu  to Win -175
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win -188
ODDS: +465
BET: 5u
RETURN: 28.25u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Leon Edwards  to Win -138
+ Steven Peterson  to Win by Decision +258
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win +125
ODDS: +1289
BET: 5u
RETURN: 69.46u

BET #2
+ Roxanne Modafferi  to Win +120
+ Walt Harris  to Win -163
+ Jin Soo Son  to Win -188
+ James Vick  to Win +120
ODDS: +1096
BET: 6u
RETURN: 71.78u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Juan Adams $8100
+ Klidson Abreu $8600
+ Raquel Pennington $7800
+ Steven Peterson $7400
+ Walt Harris  $8700
+ Domingo Pilarte $9400

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Rafael dos Anjos +110 vs Leon Edwards -138

This stands to be a very competitive fight with both guys taking control 1 round to the next. The odds reflect the potential swings that we could see on Saturday night. Edwards opened around -105 and fell to as low as -165 and rebounded since with some sites offering the Brit as high as -120. We have seen a number of main events end with upsets, honestly to me (regardless of the odds) this is a pick’em fight. There are lots of betting options on this card and this one could go either way. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t see Edwards getting the finish. I will pass here.

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Walt Harris -163 vs Aleksei Oleinik +137

This line has shifted some, but Harris has remained the favourite from start to finish. I like the fact that these 2 trained together because Walt should know what to expect with AO tries to close the gap. I think the factor that is helping us is that AO has pulled off multiple upsets before on the basis of his tricky submission game. Look for Harris to maintain separation and counter every time that AO moves forward. Harris is too quick, too big, too strong, hits too hard here. Harris is a Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

All 12 of Harris’s official wins have come by knockout. He will get plenty of opportunities to land, hurt, and finish AO. He gets the job done. Add him for the finish.

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Juan Adams -110 vs Greg Hardy -110

This should be a quick fun fight or a slop-fest. Adams is the more complete fighter, but Hardy offers the greater threat. Hardy is also the more well-known option and that has helped us gain some value after Juan opened around -155. Look for the wrestling to be the difference-maker here. I feel like the value makes this a solid play. Gold Bet for Adams.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Adams is very affordable at $8100. He should be able to score points with his wrestling and most likely secure a finish from top position. Add him to your lineup.

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Dan Hooker -143 vs James Vick +120

I feel like I have a good read on Hooker. A lot of predictors were on him over Barboza which I felt was a clear wrong move. I don’t feel nearly as comfortable here as I did with Barboza, but Vick has the tools to win this fight. Vick needs to use volume and movement. If he can stay away from that one fight altering sequence, Vick should be able to outwork a fighter that has a bad record in decisions. We aren’t getting the value on Vick he had at the open around +145, but he is still a solid Silver Bet for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Hooker is tough out. I don’t see Vick getting the finish, but a decent decision win. Not enough to play him. Pass.

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Alexander Hernandez -200 vs Francisco Trinaldo +170

Henandez is starting to drift too far from where I like him. He isn’t there yet, but there is still time. He opened around the -175 mark and you can still bet him at -190 on some sites, but most have him around -200 to -205. I still like here him. Unless the Cerrone fight killed his confidence, Hernandez has the tools and home-field advantage here. I like him in the Gold section to be pair up with another one of my top plays in the HBC. I am not sure if he makes the cut in my CBC parlay.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I thought about backing Hernandez here, but he is just a little more expensive than I can afford. Pass.

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Andrei Arlovski +162 vs Ben Rothwell -188

This is a rematch from a while back. It most likely comes down to who has improved/degraded more. AA won the first, but I feel like he has regressed since their first meeting. Rothwell has potentially improved or at least worked out the issues that cost him their first meeting. Ben opened around -215 so we are getting a decent price here. He hasn’t won in a while due to the layoff and some bad luck. AA has had similar issues finding a win despite being more active. I like Rothwell in my Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Rothwell could snatch a finish here, but I will stay away from the potential slow-moving decision outcome that could be just as likely.

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Alex Caceres -125 vs Steven Peterson +100

Caceres is the more well-known fighter here and Peterson hasn’t exactly been loading the win column up which are scenarios that are helping us here. Peterson has good takedowns and is an aggressive striker. Caceres can be taken down and struggles with pressure. He likes to sit at range and get creative. I like Peterson here to outwork him and grab this fight on the cards. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Peterson’s fantasy price is unreal cheap. I don’t know if he can snatch a finish here, but his volume combined with takedowns and the positive impact on our bankroll makes him a solid addition. Add him.

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Irene Aldana -150 vs Raquel Pennington +125

It is important to realize how these lines are made. Aldana has won 3 in a row. Pennington has lost back to back fights. That impacts both how the line is set and how the public bets each fighter. Pennington lost to arguably the best WMMA competitor of all time. Her next fight fell under the Post-title fight letdown scenario against another top fighter in GDR. Pennington shouldn’t be written off here. Aldana has been winning but against lower competition and it has been far from easy. I like Pennington as a Silver play here to rebound nicely.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Rocky gets the fantasy call here. Her opponent has a pretty basic striking defense and has been hit 100+ times on 3 occasions. I feel like Pennington can do the same, mix in a couple of takedowns, and potentially snatch a submission win if they hit the floor. Her price opens up lots of potential as well. Add her.

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Klidson Abreu -175 vs Sam Alvey +150

I’ve never been a big Sam Alvey fan. His fighting style is flawed and opportunistic at best. That is hard to bet with or against. Abreu lacks the strong striking skills to make this a slam dunk, but unless Alvey can KO him this is a tough fight for the American to win. I like Abreu in the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Klidson in my fantasy lineup because when Alvey losses, he gets finished. When Klidson wins, he usually finishes. Play the numbers.

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Jennifer Maia -143 vs Roxanne Modafferi +120

This fight was a pick’em at the open, but I feel that a lot of the public saw the loss to Maia on the record of Roxanne and went with Maia. I get that. Roxanne has improved since their first meeting and she has been really keying on the wrestling component of her attack. That also happens to be a significant weakness that Maia has struggled with in previous action. Maia also has issues with being a bit of a slow starter. That will cost her here as well. Moddafferi continues to defy the odds. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here pass.

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Ray Borg -188 vs Gabriel Silva +150

Borg was nearly at -300 when he opened and he has come down significantly. Similar to Pennington, he lost his title fight and then next bout. Silva is a dangerous striker, but his avenue to victory is limited. Short of a knockout or Borg coming out flat again, Ray should give him all kinds of trouble with his more technically sound offense. Despite the big dip in line, I have Borg in the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here despite the submission threat that Borg presents.

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Mario Bautista +162 vs Jin Soo Son -188

This is a difficult fight to get a good feel for. Both men had short camps and fought opponents way over their head for a debut. Son’s line was around -250 and has improved, but he is now climbing back closer to -200. I was considering a pass here and that might be the case. Son could find his way into a CBC play or paired with the aforementioned Borg. Bronze Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Son is a little too expensive for my liking, but the volume and potential for a finish is certainly intriguing.

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Felipe Colares +275 vs Domingo Pilarte -350

This is a pretty easy fight to pass over. Both guys are at the start of their UFC careers and we are stilling figuring them out. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pilarte makes the cut. He is a finisher against a fighter that didn’t impress me last time out. I feel like Pilarte has a lot of potential to score points here and will be overlooked by most players because of his lack of name recognition. Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Alexander Hernandez -200

2. Walt Harris -163

3. Steven Peterson +100

4. Ray Borg -188

5. Juan Adams -110

====================

6. Raquel Pennington +125

7. Leon Edwards -138

8. Roxanne Modafferi +120

9. James Vick +120

10. Ben Rothwell -188

11. Domingo Pilarte -350

12. Klidson Abreu -175

13. Jin Soo Son -188

 

Value Bet List

1. Raquel Pennington +125

2. Roxanne Modafferi +120

3. Steven Peterson +100

4. James Vick +120

5. Juan Adams -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Mario Bautista/Jin Soo Son

With this card, I plan to avoid props bets almost entirely. Nothing originally jumped off the page at me and I feel I can build on my success from last event. I will pass on both EPU options.

2. Felipe Colares/Domingo Pilarte

See above.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Steven Peterson to Win by Decision +258

I am passing on almost all props on this card, but I am still wanting to play the FPO. Caceres is pretty durable and Peterson’s style of pushing a strong pace should hold up well on the cards. We are now at 6 straight cards with a decision in this spot. Let’s make this pay.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Rafael dos Anjos +110 vs Leon Edwards -138

2. Juan Adams -110 vs Greg Hardy -110

3. Dan Hooker -143 vs James Vick +120

4. Alex Caceres -125 vs Steven Peterson +100

5. Irene Aldana -150 vs Raquel Pennington +125

6. Jennifer Maia -143 vs Roxanne Modafferi +120

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Alex Caceres/Steven Peterson

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Mario Bautista/Jin Soo Son

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Felipe Colares/Domingo Pilarte

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

 

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