UFC on ESPN 3: Ngannou vs Dos Santos | Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 3: Ngannou vs Dos Santos | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Demian Maia  to WIN -184
+ Francis Ngannou  to WIN -225
ODDS: +123
BET: 8u
RETURN: 17.84u

 

BET #2
+ Jussier Formiga  to WIN +130
ODDS: +130
BET: 6u
RETURN: 13.8u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Junior Albini  to WIN -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9.55u

 

BET #2
+ Emily Whitmire  to WIN -188
+ Alonzo Menifield  to WIN -275
ODDS: +109
BET: 5u
RETURN: 10.44u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Vinc Pichel  to WIN +225
ODDS: +225
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.75u

 

BET #2
+ Dequan Townsend  to WIN +250
ODDS: +250
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.75u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Demian Maia  to Win by Submission +160
ODDS: +160
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.8u

 

BET #2
+ Jared Gordon  to Win by TKO/KO +345
ODDS: +345
BET: 3u
RETURN: 13.35u

 

BET #3
+ Alonzo Menifield  to Win by TKO/KO -125
+ Ricardo Ramos  to Win by Decision +103
ODDS: +265
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10.96u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Demian Maia  to WIN -184
+ Francis Ngannou  to WIN -225
+ Jussier Formiga  to WIN +130
ODDS: +413
BET: 10u
RETURN: 51.28u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Emily Whitmire  to WIN -188
+ Alonzo Menifield  to WIN -275
+ Junior Albini  to WIN -110
ODDS: +299
BET: 8u
RETURN: 31.9u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Vinc Pichel  to WIN +225
+ Dequan Townsend  to WIN +250
ODDS: +1038
BET: 5u
RETURN: 56.88u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Demian Maia  to Win by Submission +160
+ Jared Gordon  to Win by TKO/KO +345
ODDS: +1057
BET: 4u
RETURN: 46.28u

BET #2
+ Alonzo Menifield  to Win by TKO/KO -125
+ Ricardo Ramos  to Win by Decision +103
+ Junior Albini  to Win by TKO/KO +250
ODDS: +1179
BET: 4u
RETURN: 51.16u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Francis Ngannou $8800
+ Jussier Formiga $7800
+ Demian Maia $8600
+ Dequan Townsend $7500
+ Junior Albini $8000
+ Alonzo Menifield $9000

Spares

+ Emily Whitmire $8500
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Francis Ngannou -225 vs Junior Dos Santos +187

This line really hasn’t moved a lot which makes sense to me. JDS has to fight a letter-perfect fight here if he can’t hit the off switch on Ngannou. Francis is more durable and can generate superior one-punch power. If JDS can navigate the outer edges of his striking range, he could work a decision here, but we have seen him get cut off my lesser strikers and get hurt as a result. Ngannou closes and catches him. Gold play for Ngannou.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Francis in my fantasy lineup. It is a pure power play. If he wins, it will almost certainly be by knockout. Add him.

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Jussier Formiga +130 vs Joseph Benavidez -160

We have a rematch of a fight that was a couple of years ago and ended pretty quickly. Formiga has made sizeable strides in his striking. I don’t expect him to score a knockout here, but it will help him to close the gap and set up his grappling. Benavidez can be taken down and that is the key here. Big fight for Formiga here. I expect him to get a win on the strength of his grappling in a close fight. Gold play for Formiga.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Formiga makes the cut in my Fantasy lineup. His takedowns and control on the floor will be key to scoring points and if he gets JB’s back an RNC is not out of the question for a submission. We have also seen Joe’s chin is crackable.

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Demian Maia -184 vs Rocco Martin +162

We haven’t seen a lot of movement here with Maia moving down from the mid -190 range to somewhere in the 180 range. Maia is simply too good a grappler to tangle with so Martin will need to be spot on. Look for Maia to press the action early, put Martin in some bad spots and keep him here. Gold play for Maia.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Maia is worth an inclusion in your lineup. He is affordable and can grab a finish here if he gets to Martin’s back. His takedowns and transitions will further add to his point production. Add him.

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Roosevelt Roberts -275 vs Vinc Pichel +225

Almost every Fight Night/ non-PPV event we get an unexpected upset or 2. Usually, it involves a fighter that has been streaking but takes an unsuccessful step up in competition. We are getting some decent value here with Pichel opening in the +160 range and working his way up to over +200. I feel like he doesn’t get the respect that he deserves and I am guilty of that. We are taking a shot here on a dog- Bronze Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pichel is affordable and an option here to mix things up, but I will pass.

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Drew Dober -350 vs Marco Polos Reyes +275

This is a no play for me. I feel like Dober is a clear winner here, but the price is not worth the risk. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Dober has improved his finishing numbers in recent fights and the takedowns could add some points, but I will pass here.

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Alonzo Menifield -275 vs Paul Craig +225

This fight really goes one of 2 ways- Craig gets the finish with a sub either late or in sneaky fashion or Menifield knocks him out. I had Menifield closer to -325 range, so this is a decent return by comparison. I feel you could pair Alonzo up with both Whitmire and Albini in 2-leg Silver bets in the HBC section or combine them in a 3-leg CBC play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Menefield is a finisher and will most likely win by finish if he wins. At $9000, he is a decent price- add him.

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Ricardo Ramos -334 vs Journey Newson +250

This is an easy no play considering the little we know about Newson. I expect that this could be an entertaining fight and we potentially could follow a trend on a prop to help cash in.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ramos is just a little too expensive compared to other options, especially when you consider the highly likely chance that this fight goes to the cards. Pass.

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Eryk Anders -350 vs Vinicius Moreira +275

Similar to the Ramos fight, this one isn’t worth touching. Anders should win, but he has underperformed before in winnable fights. Moreira is good on the mat, but his striking is brutal and his wrestling is not much better. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Anders should win by finish, but again, he needs to start showing us more before we throw in behind him.

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Jared Gordon -350 vs Dan Moret +275

I feel like a broken record here. Gordon is a massive favourite on a losing streak fighting an opponent who will be the hometown favourite. This could be another entertaining scrap, but the numbers do not warrant an investment.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $9200, Gordon is too much to look at. There are better options, especially considering how wonky his chin has been.

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Dalcha Lungiambula -334 vs Dequan Townsend +250

I am playing a couple of hunches here- fighters coming out of South Africa have struggled at this level and fighters moving up in weight have been having some decent success. Townsend formerly fought at 170 and 185 and while he has had mixed result at 205, this is worth a shot at this return. Townsend opened around +170, but has climbed as the week progressed. That is good for us. A lot unknown here- Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Townsend is a finisher, so if he wins it will most likely be inside the distance. He is affordable and gives us flexibility. Add him.

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Emily Whitmire -188 vs Amanda Ribas +162

Whitmire was a hefty favourite at the open, coming in around -300. We are getting a much-improved price here. Ribas has a good combat background, but she has been out of the game for a while. I think Whitmire’s size and aggression will be too much for her. Strong Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Whitmire most likely gets the finish here, once she breaks Ribas down a bit. I think she is a solid backup option- add her as a spare.

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Maurice Greene -110 vs Junior Albini -110

Albini was a slight dog at the open, but we have pulled even over the week. Yes, Albini has struggled of late- but against good competition. Yes, Greene has looked good- but against lower level opponents. This is one of those fights were a lot of people are jumping on Greene and counting easy money based on the line. Albini is a fighter that has lost 3 in a row- we are feasting on those lines. Let’s do it again here- Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

This is a good spot to grab a finisher and at an affordable price. Albini has shown he can put opponents away and while Greene has zero knockout losses- he was hurt badly on TUF prior to getting finished. Add Albini.

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Confidence List

1. Drew Dober -350

2. Alonzo Menifield -275

3. Francis Ngannou -225

4. Demian Maia -184

5. Emily Whitmire -188

====================

6. Ricardo Ramos -334

7. Jared Gordon -350

8. Eryk Anders -350

9. Jussier Formiga +130

10. Junior Albini -110

11. Vinc Pichel +225

12. Dequan Townsend +250

Value Bet List

1. Jussier Formiga +130

2. Demian Maia -184

3. Junior Albini -110

4. Vinc Pichel +225

5. Dequan Townsend +250

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Emily Whitmire to Win Inside the Distance +285

Ribas has so much going against her here. Whitmire might need to tire her out a bit here before she gets the stoppage. I want both her subs and strikes in play as well. Ribas has a good grappling background, so Whitmire may opt to keep it standing.

2. Junior Albini to Win by TKO/KO +250

Albini has finished the majority of his wins by knockout and Greene is hittable. With his back against the wall, Junior needs to come out firing. I think this play is worth a look just based on pure numbers.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Ricardo Ramos to Win by Decision +103

While Ramos is a proven finisher, this scenario has claimed the stoppage potential of a lot of dangerous fighters. I was a little surprised that Ramos wasn’t getting more of a return on a play like this. Either way, it is another solid look for us to make up for the lack of playable options.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Jussier Formiga +130 vs Joseph Benavidez -160

2. Maurice Greene -110 vs Junior Albini -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Demian Maia to Win by Submission +160

It is hard to see Maia winning a fight and not take a shot at the sub prop. Martin is good on the mat, but far from perfect. If Maia can take him down, which I feel he will, then he can submit him. This is a nice bump in value based on a fighter with a proven track record.

Alonzo Menifield to Win by TKO/KO -125

Similar to Maia by sub, if you are backing Alonzo here he is worth a look by knockout to improve the price. It is not a flashy return, but of course, with several heavy favs on this card, we can look at bets like this to add to our bet options.

Ricardo Ramos/Journey Newson

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Jared Gordon to Win by TKO/KO +345

Moret’s chin is a bit of a question mark and Gordon is relentless. If Gordon can put it on Moret, he could certainly wear him out and score a TKO finish or just stop him altogether with a barrage. This prop offers a big return on the knockout finish- worth a look.

Emily Whitmire/Amanda Ribas

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Maurice Greene/Junior Albini

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

 

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