UFC on ESPN 3: Ngannou vs Dos Santos | Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Demian Maia | to WIN | -184 |  |
| + Francis Ngannou | to WIN | -225 | |
| ODDS: | +123 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 17.84u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Jussier Formiga | to WIN | +130 |  |
| ODDS: | +130 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 13.8u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Junior Albini | to WIN | -110 | |
| ODDS: | -110 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 9.55u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Emily Whitmire | to WIN | -188 | |
| + Alonzo Menifield | to WIN | -275 | |
| ODDS: | +109 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 10.44u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Vinc Pichel | to WIN | +225 | |
| ODDS: | +225 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 9.75u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Dequan Townsend | to WIN | +250 | |
| ODDS: | +250 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 9.75u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Demian Maia | to Win by Submission | +160 | |
| ODDS: | +160 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 7.8u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Jared Gordon | to Win by TKO/KO | +345 | |
| ODDS: | +345 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 13.35u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Alonzo Menifield | to Win by TKO/KO | -125 | |
| + Ricardo Ramos | to Win by Decision | +103 | |
| ODDS: | +265 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 10.96u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Demian Maia | to WIN | -184 | |
| + Francis Ngannou | to WIN | -225 | |
| + Jussier Formiga | to WIN | +130 | |
| ODDS: | +413 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 51.28u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Emily Whitmire | to WIN | -188 | |
| + Alonzo Menifield | to WIN | -275 | |
| + Junior Albini | to WIN | -110 | |
| ODDS: | +299 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 31.9u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Vinc Pichel | to WIN | +225 | |
| + Dequan Townsend | to WIN | +250 | |
| ODDS: | +1038 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 56.88u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Demian Maia | to Win by Submission | +160 | |
| + Jared Gordon | to Win by TKO/KO | +345 | |
| ODDS: | +1057 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 46.28u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Alonzo Menifield | to Win by TKO/KO | -125 | |
| + Ricardo Ramos | to Win by Decision | +103 | |
| + Junior Albini | to Win by TKO/KO | +250 | |
| ODDS: | +1179 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 51.16u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Francis Ngannou | $8800 | |
| + Jussier Formiga | $7800 | |
| + Demian Maia | $8600 | |
| + Dequan Townsend | $7500 | |
| + Junior Albini | $8000 | |
| + Alonzo Menifield | $9000 | |
Spares
| + Emily Whitmire | $8500 | |
| + | ||
| + | ||
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Francis Ngannou -225 vs Junior Dos Santos +187
This line really hasn’t moved a lot which makes sense to me. JDS has to fight a letter-perfect fight here if he can’t hit the off switch on Ngannou. Francis is more durable and can generate superior one-punch power. If JDS can navigate the outer edges of his striking range, he could work a decision here, but we have seen him get cut off my lesser strikers and get hurt as a result. Ngannou closes and catches him. Gold play for Ngannou.
I also have Francis in my fantasy lineup. It is a pure power play. If he wins, it will almost certainly be by knockout. Add him.
Jussier Formiga +130 vs Joseph Benavidez -160
We have a rematch of a fight that was a couple of years ago and ended pretty quickly. Formiga has made sizeable strides in his striking. I don’t expect him to score a knockout here, but it will help him to close the gap and set up his grappling. Benavidez can be taken down and that is the key here. Big fight for Formiga here. I expect him to get a win on the strength of his grappling in a close fight. Gold play for Formiga.
Formiga makes the cut in my Fantasy lineup. His takedowns and control on the floor will be key to scoring points and if he gets JB’s back an RNC is not out of the question for a submission. We have also seen Joe’s chin is crackable.
Demian Maia -184 vs Rocco Martin +162
We haven’t seen a lot of movement here with Maia moving down from the mid -190 range to somewhere in the 180 range. Maia is simply too good a grappler to tangle with so Martin will need to be spot on. Look for Maia to press the action early, put Martin in some bad spots and keep him here. Gold play for Maia.
Maia is worth an inclusion in your lineup. He is affordable and can grab a finish here if he gets to Martin’s back. His takedowns and transitions will further add to his point production. Add him.
Roosevelt Roberts -275 vs Vinc Pichel +225
Almost every Fight Night/ non-PPV event we get an unexpected upset or 2. Usually, it involves a fighter that has been streaking but takes an unsuccessful step up in competition. We are getting some decent value here with Pichel opening in the +160 range and working his way up to over +200. I feel like he doesn’t get the respect that he deserves and I am guilty of that. We are taking a shot here on a dog- Bronze Play.
Pichel is affordable and an option here to mix things up, but I will pass.
Drew Dober -350 vs Marco Polos Reyes +275
This is a no play for me. I feel like Dober is a clear winner here, but the price is not worth the risk. Pass.
Dober has improved his finishing numbers in recent fights and the takedowns could add some points, but I will pass here.
Alonzo Menifield -275 vs Paul Craig +225
This fight really goes one of 2 ways- Craig gets the finish with a sub either late or in sneaky fashion or Menifield knocks him out. I had Menifield closer to -325 range, so this is a decent return by comparison. I feel you could pair Alonzo up with both Whitmire and Albini in 2-leg Silver bets in the HBC section or combine them in a 3-leg CBC play.
Menefield is a finisher and will most likely win by finish if he wins. At $9000, he is a decent price- add him.
Ricardo Ramos -334 vs Journey Newson +250
This is an easy no play considering the little we know about Newson. I expect that this could be an entertaining fight and we potentially could follow a trend on a prop to help cash in.
Ramos is just a little too expensive compared to other options, especially when you consider the highly likely chance that this fight goes to the cards. Pass.
Eryk Anders -350 vs Vinicius Moreira +275
Similar to the Ramos fight, this one isn’t worth touching. Anders should win, but he has underperformed before in winnable fights. Moreira is good on the mat, but his striking is brutal and his wrestling is not much better. Pass.
Anders should win by finish, but again, he needs to start showing us more before we throw in behind him.
Jared Gordon -350 vs Dan Moret +275
I feel like a broken record here. Gordon is a massive favourite on a losing streak fighting an opponent who will be the hometown favourite. This could be another entertaining scrap, but the numbers do not warrant an investment.
At $9200, Gordon is too much to look at. There are better options, especially considering how wonky his chin has been.
Dalcha Lungiambula -334 vs Dequan Townsend +250
I am playing a couple of hunches here- fighters coming out of South Africa have struggled at this level and fighters moving up in weight have been having some decent success. Townsend formerly fought at 170 and 185 and while he has had mixed result at 205, this is worth a shot at this return. Townsend opened around +170, but has climbed as the week progressed. That is good for us. A lot unknown here- Bronze play.
Townsend is a finisher, so if he wins it will most likely be inside the distance. He is affordable and gives us flexibility. Add him.
Emily Whitmire -188 vs Amanda Ribas +162
Whitmire was a hefty favourite at the open, coming in around -300. We are getting a much-improved price here. Ribas has a good combat background, but she has been out of the game for a while. I think Whitmire’s size and aggression will be too much for her. Strong Silver Play.
Whitmire most likely gets the finish here, once she breaks Ribas down a bit. I think she is a solid backup option- add her as a spare.
Maurice Greene -110 vs Junior Albini -110
Albini was a slight dog at the open, but we have pulled even over the week. Yes, Albini has struggled of late- but against good competition. Yes, Greene has looked good- but against lower level opponents. This is one of those fights were a lot of people are jumping on Greene and counting easy money based on the line. Albini is a fighter that has lost 3 in a row- we are feasting on those lines. Let’s do it again here- Silver play.
This is a good spot to grab a finisher and at an affordable price. Albini has shown he can put opponents away and while Greene has zero knockout losses- he was hurt badly on TUF prior to getting finished. Add Albini.
Confidence List
1. Drew Dober -350
2. Alonzo Menifield -275
3. Francis Ngannou -225
4. Demian Maia -184
5. Emily Whitmire -188
====================
6. Ricardo Ramos -334
7. Jared Gordon -350
8. Eryk Anders -350
9. Jussier Formiga +130
10. Junior Albini -110
11. Vinc Pichel +225
12. Dequan Townsend +250
Value Bet List
1. Jussier Formiga +130
2. Demian Maia -184
3. Junior Albini -110
4. Vinc Pichel +225
5. Dequan Townsend +250
Counter Bets
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Emily Whitmire to Win Inside the Distance +285
Ribas has so much going against her here. Whitmire might need to tire her out a bit here before she gets the stoppage. I want both her subs and strikes in play as well. Ribas has a good grappling background, so Whitmire may opt to keep it standing.
2. Junior Albini to Win by TKO/KO +250
Albini has finished the majority of his wins by knockout and Greene is hittable. With his back against the wall, Junior needs to come out firing. I think this play is worth a look just based on pure numbers.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 29 | 11 | 18 | 38% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Ricardo Ramos to Win by Decision +103
While Ramos is a proven finisher, this scenario has claimed the stoppage potential of a lot of dangerous fighters. I was a little surprised that Ramos wasn’t getting more of a return on a play like this. Either way, it is another solid look for us to make up for the lack of playable options.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 34 | 21 | 13 | 62% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 27 | 9 | 18 | 33% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Jussier Formiga +130 vs Joseph Benavidez -160
2. Maurice Greene -110 vs Junior Albini -110
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 196 | 93 | 103 | 47% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 191 | 96 | 95 | 50% |
Prop Bets
Demian Maia to Win by Submission +160
It is hard to see Maia winning a fight and not take a shot at the sub prop. Martin is good on the mat, but far from perfect. If Maia can take him down, which I feel he will, then he can submit him. This is a nice bump in value based on a fighter with a proven track record.
Alonzo Menifield to Win by TKO/KO -125
Similar to Maia by sub, if you are backing Alonzo here he is worth a look by knockout to improve the price. It is not a flashy return, but of course, with several heavy favs on this card, we can look at bets like this to add to our bet options.
Ricardo Ramos/Journey Newson
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Jared Gordon to Win by TKO/KO +345
Moret’s chin is a bit of a question mark and Gordon is relentless. If Gordon can put it on Moret, he could certainly wear him out and score a TKO finish or just stop him altogether with a barrage. This prop offers a big return on the knockout finish- worth a look.
Emily Whitmire/Amanda Ribas
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Maurice Greene/Junior Albini
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.