UFC Fight Night 155: de Randamie vs Ladd | Bet Pack Review | Biggest Win of 2019

UFC Fight Night 155: de Randamie vs Ladd | Bet Pack Review | Biggest Win of 2019

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Germaine de Randamie  to Win +140
+ Julianna Pena  to Win -188
ODDS: +268
BET: 8u
RETURN: 29.41u

 

BET #2
+ Marvin Vettori to Win  -160
+ Andre Fili  to Win +100
ODDS: +225
BET: 8u
RETURN: 26u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Josh Emmett  to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 6u
RETURN: 14.4u

 

BET #2
+ Liu Pingyuan  to Win -150
+ Ryan Hall  to Win -110
ODDS: +218
BET: 5u
RETURN: 15.91u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Benito Lopez  to Win +120
ODDS: +120
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6.6u

 

BET #2
+ Brianna Van Buren  to Win -138
ODDS: -138
BET: 4u
RETURN: 6.9u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ryan Hall  to Win by Submission +135
ODDS: +135
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.4u

 

BET #2
+ Marvin Vettori  to Win by TKO/KO +350
ODDS: +350
BET: 3u
RETURN: 13.5u

 

BET #3
+ Ricky Simon  to Win by Decision -150
+ Germaine de Randamie  to Win +140
ODDS: +300
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Marvin Vettori to Win  -160
+ Andre Fili  to Win +100
+ Germaine de Randamie  to Win +140
ODDS: +680
BET: 8u
RETURN: 62.4u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Liu Pingyuan  to Win -150
+ Josh Emmett  to Win +140
+ Julianna Pena  to Win -188
ODDS: +513
BET: 6u
RETURN: 36.77u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Benito Lopez  to Win +120
+ Brianna Van Buren 
to Win -138
+ Ryan Hall  to Win -110
ODDS: +624
BET: 5u
RETURN: 36.22u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Andre Fili  to Win +100
+ Josh Emmett  to Win +140
+ Liu Pingyuan  to Win -150
+ Brianna Van Buren  to Win -138
ODDS: +1280
BET: 6u
RETURN: 82.78u

BET #2
+ Germaine de Randamie  to Win +140
+ Marvin Vettori to Win  -160
+ Ryan Hall  to Win -110
+ Benito Lopez  to Win +120
ODDS: +1538
BET: 6u
RETURN: 98.28u

BET #3
+ Ryan Hall  to Win by Submission +135
+ Marvin Vettori  to Win by TKO/KO +350
+ Ricky Simon  to Win by Decision -150
ODDS: +1663
BET: 4u
RETURN: 70.5u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Germaine De Randamie $7300
+ Josh Emmett $7400
+ Mike Rodriguez $9400
+ Ryan Hall $8300
+ Marvin Vettori $8600
+ Julianna Pena $9000

Spares

+ Andre Fili $7800
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Germaine de Randamie +140 vs Aspen Ladd -170

This fight was close to even at the open with GDR around the -110 mark, so we are getting some solid value here. Ladd has got off to a strong start, but this is a big step up in competition against a fighter that had dealt with similar opponents before. If Ladd can take her down, she can win. If not, GDR is going to smash her. Ladd takes too many shots for my liking and GDR is too talented on the feet to mess with. Gold Play for the Iron Lady.

Draft-Kings-Logo

GDR also gets the call here. She has finishing power and will have 5 rounds to land volume against a hittable opponent. The price is right to help us make a few other plays. Add her.

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Urijah Faber +275 vs Ricky Simon -350

This is a pass for me. There are so many other betting options on this card that playing Simon at this price just doesn’t make sense. Faber is durable so I might look at the Simon decision prop, but straight-up, we can look elsewhere.

Draft-Kings-Logo

As previously mentioned, Faber is no easy out. We can look elsewhere.

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Mirsad Bektic -170 vs Josh Emmett +140

This should be a fun fight. I wasn’t that impressed with Bektic against Lamas, and Ricardo is trending down. Emmett is dangerous and brings a lot of pressure with power behind it. With the combo of size and TAM training, Bektic is going to struggle to implement his TD reliant attack. I think Bektic’s status as a prospect is helping him get the edge here with the betting line. Strong Silver play for Emmett who has the power to stop Bektic and pressure to win a decision.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Emmett also gets the call to our fantasy lineup. He hits very hard and Bektic’s chin is a question mark. Look for Emmett to clip him as MB closes the gap to engage. Add him for a surprisingly affordable price.

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Karl Roberson -225 vs Wellington Turman +187

The Roberson line has turned against us. At -155 or really anything below -195, I was considering a Silver play. Unfortunately, we aren’t getting that type of return now. Turman’s grappling could present an issue for us and while I was willing to back Baby K at the previous price, I have to downgrade him to a Bronze play or even No Play now.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here as well. Roberson has some power and submission skills, but I just don’t see this is outranking a couple of our other plays.

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Cezar Ferreira +130 vs Marvin Vettori -160

Vettori is moving in the right direction for us. He was -170 early and has moved to -145 on some sites- shop around. I have read several reports/ breakdowns that were surprised that Cezar was the dog here. I get that. Vettori has to stay vertical to win which is I expect he will do. His cardio is better than Ferreira and so is his durability. I really like Vettori here. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Vettori in my fantasy lineup. He hasn’t showcased his finishing ability in the UFC which means most players will overlook him. Instead, I am banking on the lack of durability on Ferreira’s part. His chin hasn’t been an issue in recent fights, but that doesn’t go away. Vettori gets the finish for a decent price. Add him.

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John Allan +300 vs Mike Rodriguez -400

With so many different betting options, Slow-Mike is just too low reward/ high risk. I think Rodriguez wins this one, I just don’t feel that a pair of sluggers trading hands is a worthwhile venture at -400 for our guy. I will look at the betting scenario for this fight.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Mike in my fantasy lineup. While this fight could go the distance based on its FPO status, Rodriguez showed he can do damage and finish against a foe that wants to stand and bang. Add him.

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Andre Fili +100 vs Sheymon Moraes -125

This line has almost entirely flipped. Fili opened at -145 and Moraes was +105. We are getting a solid return here and could improve over the next 24-hours. Unless Moraes can hurt him, Fili’s reach, jab, speed, volume, and wrestling will be too much for Moraes to overcome. Fili is also fighting at home. Andre is in the midst of his best run in the UFC- it continues. Gold play for Touchy.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I thought about Fili in my Fantasy lineup, but Moraes is a tough out. The volume could be there to warrant a play, but I felt there were a couple of better options. I would consider using him to mix things up.

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Nicco Montano +162 vs Julianna Pena -188

The line is starting to turn against us, but there is still time and value here. Pena opened around -155 and is now in the -175 to -190 range on most sites. Some sites have started to creep into the -200/-210 range. I still like Pena at this price. Montano has not impressed me and moving up to take on a physical fighter like Pena isn’t exactly a welcome option for her. Look for Pena to come out strong, motivated by becoming a mom. Pena is a Gold play for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I can see the physicality of Pena overwhelming Nico on route to a TKO finish. Pena has faced vastly better competition and has a sizeable advantage in quality and quantity of opposition. Nico is also coming off a long layoff as well. I like Pena here to win a dominant decision or score a stoppage.

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Darren Elkins -110 vs Ryan Hall -110

Hall was a heavier favourite around -140 when the fight hit the market. I like what we are getting here. Hall is far from a complete fighter and if he is off, Elkins can grind him into a decision defeat. Elkins’ style is to reliant on navigating Hall’s wheelhouse. Hall will catch him with a sub, most likely a heel hook early in the fight. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Hall in my lineup. If he wins this fight it will almost certainly be by early submission and that should score us some decent points. At $8300, a finish or bust type fighters is worth the risk.

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Jonathan Martinez +125 vs Liu Pingyuan -150

Compared to where this line started, closer to -280, we are getting a fantastic deal here. I have seen several predictors backing Martinez, but I just can’t look past his shaky TDD. Liu is pretty active on the feet which is what Buren wasn’t and that allow JM to overcome giving up multiple TDs. Considering where Liu opened up, this fight nearly made the Gold play in place of Pena. Instead, I will back Liu in my Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No play here.

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Livinha Souza +110 vs Brianna Van Buren -138

BVB is a short notice and debuting fighter. Those are 2 tough scenarios and led to her opening as the dog. She has since moved on as the favourite and I get that. Souza is a good grappler and a capable striker. Many are looking at her as the taller fighter as an advantage. I don’t see it that way. BVB is a powerhouse and will be able to make quick level changes as the shorter fighter. It will also be difficult for Souza to change levels against a shorter opponent. This is a close fight early, but BVB’s wrestling and power punching carries the day. Bronze play considering the debut and short notice factors.

Draft-Kings-Logo

BVB has shown she can finish, I just don’t anticipate it happening here. Pass.

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Benito Lopez +120 vs Vince Morales -143

This should be a really fun fight and considering the massive swing that has ramped up the value on Lopez, it is hard not to bet him here. He opened around -265 and is now in the +110 to +120 range. Lopez is longer and will push the pace here. Morales is a willing striker, but he is going to have issues with the range of Lopez. Don’t be shocked if Lopez finds some success on the mat as well. Lopez at home at a solid price. Fun fight. I will take him in the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Maybe we get a finish here, but Lopez is a hard out. Our lineup doesn’t include Benito. Pass.

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Confidence List

1. Ricky Simon -350

2. Julianna Pena -188

3. Marvin Vettori -160

4. Germaine de Randamie +140

5. Mike Rodriguez -400

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6. Andre Fili +100

7. Josh Emmett +140

8. Liu Pingyuan -150

9. Ryan Hall -110

10. Brianna Van Buren -138

11. Benito Lopez +120

12. Karl Roberson -225

 

Value Bet List

1. Germaine de Randamie +140

2. Josh Emmett +140

3. Andre Fili +100

4. Benito Lopez +120

5. Ryan Hall -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Benito Lopez/Vince Morales

I will save writing this out twice. We are coming off of a double decision to open the card, but I can see both of these bouts going the distance. There is enough concern about a finish to not dive in on that play, better to just stay away and bet the fights straight up.

2. Livinha Souza/Brianna Van Buren

See above.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
20
35
10 of 28 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
2491538%

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FPO Candidate

1. Mike Rodriguez to Win by Decision +385

While this trend is not perfect, we have seen it claim a number of expected finishes and turn them into decisions. Rodriguez is coming off a brutal first-round finish, so we are probably getting some value from that. With both fighters willing to stand and trade, we could definitely get a stoppage- but neither man has been stopped via strikes yet. Take the value on a strong trend.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
2719870%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2171433%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Cezar Ferreira +130 vs Marvin Vettori -160

2. Andre Fili +100 vs Sheymon Moraes -125

3. Darren Elkins -110 vs Ryan Hall -110

4. Jonathan Martinez +125 vs Liu Pingyuan -150

5. Livinha Souza +110 vs Brianna Van Buren -138

6. Benito Lopez +120 vs Vince Morales -143

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
147687946%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
145747151%

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Prop Bets

Ricky Simon to Win by Decision -150

Faber has been out the game for a while, but he is no easy out. Simon should be able to handle Faber just about everywhere as long as he stays vertical. Faber has been finished just 3 times in 44 career fights. Unless he is really off his game, Faber should be able to hang with Simon for a full 15-minutes.

Marvin Vettori to Win by TKO/KO +350

While Vettori really hasn’t shown his finishing power in the UFC, +350 against Ferreria’s chin is worth a look. Vettori is going to keep pushing him and as Ferreria starts to slow, the potential for a stoppage increases significantly. Worth a shot.

John Allan/Mike Rodriguez

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Ryan Hall to Win by Submission +135

Hall most likely only wins this fight by submission. If Elkins can avoid getting tapped he could use activity to earn a decision. Look for Hall to attack the legs of a fighter that will willingly initiate grappling exchanges. Go back to Elkins/Pepey, Elkins dove right and nearly got subbed early. Hall won’t let that situation evade him.

Benito Lopez/Vince Morales

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Livinha Souza/Brianna Van Buren

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

 

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