UFC Fight Night 154 Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 154 Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -160
+ John Lineker  to Win -210
ODDS: +140
BET: 9u
RETURN: 21.59u

 

BET #2
+ Chan Sung Jung  to Win +175
+ Bryan Barberena  to Win -275
ODDS: +275
BET: 7u
RETURN: 26.25u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Andre Ewell  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9.55u

 

BET #2
+ Ashly Yoder to Win  -110
+ Kevin Holland to Win  -220
ODDS: +178
BET: 5u
RETURN: 13.88u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+  John Lineker  to Win by Decision +150
ODDS: +150
BET: 4u
RETURN: 10u

 

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Bryan Barberena  to Win by TKO/KO +175
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  to Win by TKO/KO -128
ODDS: +390
BET: 4u
RETURN: 19.59u

 

BET #2
+ Andrea Lee  to Win by Decision -119
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win by Decision +147
ODDS: +355
BET: 4u
RETURN: 18.18u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -160
+ John Lineker  to Win -210
+ Chan Sung Jung  to Win +175
ODDS: +560
BET: 9u
RETURN: 59.37u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Ashly Yoder to Win  -110
+ Kevin Holland to Win  -220
+ Andre Ewell 
to Win  -110
ODDS: +430
BET: 6u
RETURN: 31.81u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -160
+ Ashly Yoder to Win -110
+ Chan Sung Jung  to Win +175
+ John Lineker  to Win -210
ODDS: +1159
BET: 5u
RETURN: 62.97u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ John Lineker  to Win by Decision +150
+ Andrea Lee  to Win by Decision -119
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win by Decision +147
ODDS: +1036
BET: 5u
RETURN: 56.82u

BET #2
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  to Win by TKO/KO -128
+ Deron Winn  to Win by TKO/KO -120
+ Ewell/Dos Santos  Total Rounds Under 2.5 +100
ODDS: +553
BET: 4u
RETURN: 26.13u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Chan Sung Jung $7600
+ Kevin Aguilar $8400
+ Deron Winn $9300
+ Andre Ewell $8300
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik $9000
+ Molly McCann $7100

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Renato Moicano -210 vs Chan Sung Jung +175

KZ opened as a slight favourite around -120 so we are getting a nice deal in the +160 to 180 range. I’m still not sold on Moicano. If he can be broken in less than 3 rounds, KZ can certainly do it over 5 rounds. Moicano has yet to show me the finishing skills on the feet needed to get Jung out of there. This should allow KZ to march forward and put volume on the Brazilian leading to either a stoppage or decision win. We have seen some crazy upsets in recent main events. That trend continues. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

KZ is the only dog I have on the card so he is a must add. He can score points over 5-rounds or pick up a finish. Add him.

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John Lineker -210 vs Rob Font +175

The first time around, Linker opened around -150 and closed at the -180 range. He is getting a larger nod here, but it has improved since the open- coming down from -280. I haven’t seen enough out of Font to think he could dissuade Lineker from moving forward and that is the key here. Lineker will push forward and unless he tires from the late notice, this is his fight to win. Gold Play for Lineker.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here. Lineker isn’t cheap and while I expect a finish, I will look elsewhere.

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Bryan Barberena -275 vs Randy Brown +225

Stylistically, Barberena is a bad matchup for Brown. It takes a lot to get our BB out of there and while Brown starts strong, he fades. BB will be a little slow out of the gates, but I expect him to take this one over. His value isn’t great. I liked him more in the -210. Barberena might be a nice compliment to a Gold play (KZ or Aguilar), but I will most likely pass on his CBC inclusion.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The volume and potential stoppage makes Bam Bam enticing, but he is costly. Pass.

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Andrea Lee -220 vs Montana De La Rosa +180

I think DLR is being undervalued here. She is a capable ground fight with good submission skills. If Lee gets taken down, there is a significant concern that she can be tapped. I have seen her on some sites sitting around the -185 which is a more playable option. I think Lee wins this fight, but at this return, I don’t feel she is really worth a look. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I see this fight going the distance. Pass.

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Kevin Holland -220 vs Alessio Di Chirico +180

Similar to the fight above, we are getting our fighter at the lesser price. Holland opened around the -195 and has lost a little value over the week. That being said, I feel he is a stronger play than Lee. Holland should be able to find success working at range against a fighter that has a lot of issues in close fights. Holland is a strong Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Di Chirico is a tough out and Holland isn’t showcasing the finishing vibe. I will pass.

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Ashly Yoder -110 vs Syuri Kondo -110

Yoder was a slight dog at the open, but we are now even- at least on most sites. I have seen her close to -120 depending on where you look. Kondo hasn’t impressed me and Yoder has put up a good fight in almost all her fights- even in defeat. Look for Yoder’s mat game to play a role here in a close fight. Yoder is a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t think Yoder gets the finish here. Pass.

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Dan Ige +130 vs Kevin Aguilar -160

We are getting KA somewhere in between the -150 and -175 he is posted at across the board. Aguilar is coming off a strong performance against a wrestling-centric fighter in Barzola. If he can repeat that performance against Ige and force him to trade, this fight is his to win. I like Ige, but he is not the same fighter if he can’t get the contest to the floor at some point. Aguilar has been impressive against better opposition. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I’m not sure that KA gets the finish, but he is affordable and Ige is hittable. Our options are limited here, but I think he is a solid add.

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Matt Wiman +300 vs Luis Pena -400

This is an easy pass. Pena should win, but Wiman’s situation is so odd there is no way we can touch this fight at this line.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Too expensive. Pass.

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Allen Crowder +180 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220

If JR can stay vertical this is his fight all day. That is a big if. Crowder needs to come out spamming TDs to take him off his game. The line was much more tempting at -175, which would have had me considering a Silver play here. Instead, I will throw Rozenstruik possibly into a Bronze play or just leave her off altogether.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With Crowder’s history of getting finished and JR striking/ finishing skills- I like this option even at $9000. Add him.

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Ariane Lipski -275 vs Molly McCann +225

I don’t feel like throwing anything into a near -300 bet for a fighter that is 0-1 in the UFC. This bout was a near even play which makes more sense to me. But at this line, it is a pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With only a few near $8000 plays available to me, I had to go offboard to fill out my lineup. McCann is affordable and facing an unproven opponent. She gets the call here.

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Deron Winn -275 vs Eric Spicely +225

A debuting fighter versus an opponent that is taking the fight on just a couple of days notice. Lots of chaos. Winn is also moving down to MW which adds to the uncertainty. Just too much to risk for too little to gain to consider making this play. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

From a Fantasy perspective, we are getting a good look. Winn has a solid finishing rate against an opponent that has minimal prep and has been finished in all of his UFC defeats. That’s plenty enough for me to back him.

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Andre Ewell -110 vs Anderson Dos Santos -110

We are getting a ton of value here. Ewell opened around -300 and this is now a near pick’em fight. Ewell is vulnerable on the mat and if ADS can get him down, that is his key to victory. Conversely, the Brazilian’s striking D is brutal and will most likely get him blasted by the longer and more capable striker. Jump on the value here for a big Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ewell can finish and even if he can’t get ADS out of there a decision win should still produce some solid volume. He works as our first fantasy play of the night.

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Confidence List

1. Luis Pena -400

2. Bryan Barberena -275

3. John Lineker -210

4. Deron Winn -275

5. Kevin Holland -220

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6. Kevin Aguilar -160

7. Chan Sung Jung +175

8. Andre Ewell -110

9. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220

10. Ashly Yoder -110

11. Andrea Lee -220

12. Ariane Lipski -275

 

Value Bet List

1. Chan Sung Jung +175

2. Andre Ewell -110

3. Kevin Aguilar -160

4. Ashly Yoder -110

5. John Lineker to Win by Decision +150

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Deron Winn to Win by TKO/KO -120

Winn is a good wrestler and that should be enough to take Spicely submission game out of the equation. WIth ES coming in on such short notice I see him struggling to mount much offense, especially later in the fight if it gets there. This should allow DW to attack at will against an opponent that has traditionally be finished in his UFC defeats.

2. Andre Ewell/Anderson Dos Santos Total Rounds Under 2.5 +100

I was going to back the Ewell finish prop, but I want to keep ADS’s submission skills/ Ewell grappling issues in play here. I expected this number to be closer to -150 or +1.5 rounds. This is the best of both worlds.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
11
16
19
5 of 18 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
1981142%

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FPO Candidate

1. Kevin Aguilar to Win by Decision +147

This trend has held pretty consistently this year. Aguilar has gone the distance twice in his 2 UFC victories and Ige is not an easy out. I like Aguilar to do damage and take this one on the cards.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
1711665%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
134931%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Ashly Yoder -110 vs Syuri Kondo -110

2. Dan Ige +130 vs Kevin Aguilar -160

3. Andre Ewell -110 vs Anderson Dos Santos -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
89434648%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
89424747%

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Prop Bets

John Lineker to Win by Decision +150

I wouldn’t be shocked to see John get Font out of there, but I also am a little surprised that we are getting +150 on this play. Font has improved since their last fight and Lineker may look to pace himself with the short notice factor. I see a very good chance of a repeat of their first fight. Take him on the cards.

Bryan Barberena to Win by TKO/KO +175

Brown’s last fight ended in a very unexpected knockout defeat based on the position. I don’t anticipate something like that happening again, but with BB throwing volume against a fighter that tends to fade- he could still get him out of there. Add it.

Andrea Lee to Win by Decision -119

If you are going to back Lee this is your best bet. She has just a pair of knockout wins and is facing a grappling specialist. This tells us that she will most likely look to stay vertical and want to stay at range to avoid getting tied up. I like her to try and point her way to a win.

Dan Ige/Kevin Aguilar

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik to Win by TKO/KO -128

JR has finished all but 1 of his pro wins by knockout. Crowder has been stopped on multiple occasions and will be badly outclassed on the feet.  At this line, we can consider a play on JR here.

Deron Winn/Eric Spicely

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Andre Ewell/Anderson Dos Santos

See the Betting Scenario Section.