UFC Fight Night 154 Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Kevin Aguilar | to Win | -160 |  |
| + John Lineker | to Win | -210 |  |
| ODDS: | +140 | ||
| BET: | 9u | ||
| RETURN: | 21.59u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Chan Sung Jung | to Win | +175 |  |
| + Bryan Barberena | to Win | -275 | |
| ODDS: | +275 | ||
| BET: | 7u | ||
| RETURN: | 26.25u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Andre Ewell | to Win | -110 | |
| ODDS: | -110 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 9.55u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Ashly Yoder | to Win | -110 | |
| + Kevin Holland | to Win | -220 | |
| ODDS: | +178 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 13.88u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + John Lineker | to Win by Decision | +150 | |
| ODDS: | +150 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 10u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Bryan Barberena | to Win by TKO/KO | +175 | |
| + Jairzinho Rozenstruik | to Win by TKO/KO | -128 | |
| ODDS: | +390 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.59u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Andrea Lee | to Win by Decision | -119 | |
| + Kevin Aguilar | to Win by Decision | +147 | |
| ODDS: | +355 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 18.18u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Kevin Aguilar | to Win | -160 | |
| + John Lineker | to Win | -210 | |
| + Chan Sung Jung | to Win | +175 | |
| ODDS: | +560 | ||
| BET: | 9u | ||
| RETURN: | 59.37u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Ashly Yoder | to Win | -110 | |
| + Kevin Holland | to Win | -220 | |
| + Andre Ewell |
to Win | -110 | |
| ODDS: | +430 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 31.81u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Kevin Aguilar | to Win | -160 | |
| + Ashly Yoder | to Win | -110 | |
| + Chan Sung Jung | to Win | +175 | |
| + John Lineker | to Win | -210 | |
| ODDS: | +1159 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 62.97u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + John Lineker | to Win by Decision | +150 | |
| + Andrea Lee | to Win by Decision | -119 | |
| + Kevin Aguilar | to Win by Decision | +147 | |
| ODDS: | +1036 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 56.82u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Jairzinho Rozenstruik | to Win by TKO/KO | -128 | |
| + Deron Winn | to Win by TKO/KO | -120 | |
| + Ewell/Dos Santos | Total Rounds Under 2.5 | +100 | |
| ODDS: | +553 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 26.13u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Chan Sung Jung | $7600 | |
| + Kevin Aguilar | $8400 | |
| + Deron Winn | $9300 | |
| + Andre Ewell | $8300 | |
| + Jairzinho Rozenstruik | $9000 | |
| + Molly McCann | $7100 | |
Spares
| + | |
| + | |
| + | |
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Renato Moicano -210 vs Chan Sung Jung +175
KZ opened as a slight favourite around -120 so we are getting a nice deal in the +160 to 180 range. I’m still not sold on Moicano. If he can be broken in less than 3 rounds, KZ can certainly do it over 5 rounds. Moicano has yet to show me the finishing skills on the feet needed to get Jung out of there. This should allow KZ to march forward and put volume on the Brazilian leading to either a stoppage or decision win. We have seen some crazy upsets in recent main events. That trend continues. Gold play.
KZ is the only dog I have on the card so he is a must add. He can score points over 5-rounds or pick up a finish. Add him.
John Lineker -210 vs Rob Font +175
The first time around, Linker opened around -150 and closed at the -180 range. He is getting a larger nod here, but it has improved since the open- coming down from -280. I haven’t seen enough out of Font to think he could dissuade Lineker from moving forward and that is the key here. Lineker will push forward and unless he tires from the late notice, this is his fight to win. Gold Play for Lineker.
I will pass here. Lineker isn’t cheap and while I expect a finish, I will look elsewhere.
Bryan Barberena -275 vs Randy Brown +225
Stylistically, Barberena is a bad matchup for Brown. It takes a lot to get our BB out of there and while Brown starts strong, he fades. BB will be a little slow out of the gates, but I expect him to take this one over. His value isn’t great. I liked him more in the -210. Barberena might be a nice compliment to a Gold play (KZ or Aguilar), but I will most likely pass on his CBC inclusion.
The volume and potential stoppage makes Bam Bam enticing, but he is costly. Pass.
Andrea Lee -220 vs Montana De La Rosa +180
I think DLR is being undervalued here. She is a capable ground fight with good submission skills. If Lee gets taken down, there is a significant concern that she can be tapped. I have seen her on some sites sitting around the -185 which is a more playable option. I think Lee wins this fight, but at this return, I don’t feel she is really worth a look. Pass.
I see this fight going the distance. Pass.
Kevin Holland -220 vs Alessio Di Chirico +180
Similar to the fight above, we are getting our fighter at the lesser price. Holland opened around the -195 and has lost a little value over the week. That being said, I feel he is a stronger play than Lee. Holland should be able to find success working at range against a fighter that has a lot of issues in close fights. Holland is a strong Silver play.
Di Chirico is a tough out and Holland isn’t showcasing the finishing vibe. I will pass.
Ashly Yoder -110 vs Syuri Kondo -110
Yoder was a slight dog at the open, but we are now even- at least on most sites. I have seen her close to -120 depending on where you look. Kondo hasn’t impressed me and Yoder has put up a good fight in almost all her fights- even in defeat. Look for Yoder’s mat game to play a role here in a close fight. Yoder is a Silver play.
I don’t think Yoder gets the finish here. Pass.
Dan Ige +130 vs Kevin Aguilar -160
We are getting KA somewhere in between the -150 and -175 he is posted at across the board. Aguilar is coming off a strong performance against a wrestling-centric fighter in Barzola. If he can repeat that performance against Ige and force him to trade, this fight is his to win. I like Ige, but he is not the same fighter if he can’t get the contest to the floor at some point. Aguilar has been impressive against better opposition. Gold Play.
I’m not sure that KA gets the finish, but he is affordable and Ige is hittable. Our options are limited here, but I think he is a solid add.
Matt Wiman +300 vs Luis Pena -400
This is an easy pass. Pena should win, but Wiman’s situation is so odd there is no way we can touch this fight at this line.
Too expensive. Pass.
Allen Crowder +180 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220
If JR can stay vertical this is his fight all day. That is a big if. Crowder needs to come out spamming TDs to take him off his game. The line was much more tempting at -175, which would have had me considering a Silver play here. Instead, I will throw Rozenstruik possibly into a Bronze play or just leave her off altogether.
With Crowder’s history of getting finished and JR striking/ finishing skills- I like this option even at $9000. Add him.
Ariane Lipski -275 vs Molly McCann +225
I don’t feel like throwing anything into a near -300 bet for a fighter that is 0-1 in the UFC. This bout was a near even play which makes more sense to me. But at this line, it is a pass.
With only a few near $8000 plays available to me, I had to go offboard to fill out my lineup. McCann is affordable and facing an unproven opponent. She gets the call here.
Deron Winn -275 vs Eric Spicely +225
A debuting fighter versus an opponent that is taking the fight on just a couple of days notice. Lots of chaos. Winn is also moving down to MW which adds to the uncertainty. Just too much to risk for too little to gain to consider making this play. Pass.
From a Fantasy perspective, we are getting a good look. Winn has a solid finishing rate against an opponent that has minimal prep and has been finished in all of his UFC defeats. That’s plenty enough for me to back him.
Andre Ewell -110 vs Anderson Dos Santos -110
We are getting a ton of value here. Ewell opened around -300 and this is now a near pick’em fight. Ewell is vulnerable on the mat and if ADS can get him down, that is his key to victory. Conversely, the Brazilian’s striking D is brutal and will most likely get him blasted by the longer and more capable striker. Jump on the value here for a big Silver play.
Ewell can finish and even if he can’t get ADS out of there a decision win should still produce some solid volume. He works as our first fantasy play of the night.
Confidence List
1. Luis Pena -400
2. Bryan Barberena -275
3. John Lineker -210
4. Deron Winn -275
5. Kevin Holland -220
====================
6. Kevin Aguilar -160
7. Chan Sung Jung +175
8. Andre Ewell -110
9. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220
10. Ashly Yoder -110
11. Andrea Lee -220
12. Ariane Lipski -275
Value Bet List
1. Chan Sung Jung +175
2. Andre Ewell -110
3. Kevin Aguilar -160
4. Ashly Yoder -110
5. John Lineker to Win by Decision +150
Counter Bets
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5.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Deron Winn to Win by TKO/KO -120
Winn is a good wrestler and that should be enough to take Spicely submission game out of the equation. WIth ES coming in on such short notice I see him struggling to mount much offense, especially later in the fight if it gets there. This should allow DW to attack at will against an opponent that has traditionally be finished in his UFC defeats.
2. Andre Ewell/Anderson Dos Santos Total Rounds Under 2.5 +100
I was going to back the Ewell finish prop, but I want to keep ADS’s submission skills/ Ewell grappling issues in play here. I expected this number to be closer to -150 or +1.5 rounds. This is the best of both worlds.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% | |
| 11 | 2 | 9 | 18% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Kevin Aguilar to Win by Decision +147
This trend has held pretty consistently this year. Aguilar has gone the distance twice in his 2 UFC victories and Ige is not an easy out. I like Aguilar to do damage and take this one on the cards.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% | |
| 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% | |
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Ashly Yoder -110 vs Syuri Kondo -110
2. Dan Ige +130 vs Kevin Aguilar -160
3. Andre Ewell -110 vs Anderson Dos Santos -110
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% | |
| 56 | 26 | 30 | 46% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% | |
| 56 | 29 | 27 | 52% |
Prop Bets
John Lineker to Win by Decision +150
I wouldn’t be shocked to see John get Font out of there, but I also am a little surprised that we are getting +150 on this play. Font has improved since their last fight and Lineker may look to pace himself with the short notice factor. I see a very good chance of a repeat of their first fight. Take him on the cards.
Bryan Barberena to Win by TKO/KO +175
Brown’s last fight ended in a very unexpected knockout defeat based on the position. I don’t anticipate something like that happening again, but with BB throwing volume against a fighter that tends to fade- he could still get him out of there. Add it.
Andrea Lee to Win by Decision -119
If you are going to back Lee this is your best bet. She has just a pair of knockout wins and is facing a grappling specialist. This tells us that she will most likely look to stay vertical and want to stay at range to avoid getting tied up. I like her to try and point her way to a win.
Dan Ige/Kevin Aguilar
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik to Win by TKO/KO -128
JR has finished all but 1 of his pro wins by knockout. Crowder has been stopped on multiple occasions and will be badly outclassed on the feet. At this line, we can consider a play on JR here.
Deron Winn/Eric Spicely
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Andre Ewell/Anderson Dos Santos
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.