UFC Fight Night 153- Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 153- Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Frank Camacho  to WIN -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 9u
RETURN: 16.2u

 

BET #2
+ Alexander Gustafsson  to WIN -334
+ Aleksandar Rakic  to WIN -188
ODDS: +100
BET: 7u
RETURN: 13.93u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Makwan Amirkhani  to WIN -110
+ Damir Hadzovic  to WIN -175
ODDS: +200
BET: 6u
RETURN: 18u

 

BET #2
+ Darko Stosic  to WIN -110
+ Sung Bin Jo  to WIN -143
ODDS: +224
BET: 6u
RETURN: 19.46u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Eduarda Santanna  to WIN +100
ODDS: +100
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6u

 

BET #2
+ Sergey Khandozhko  to WIN -160
+ Joel Alvarez to WIN  -110
ODDS: +210
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.41

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Sung Bin Jo  to Win Inside the Distance +115
ODDS: +115
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8.6u

 

BET #2
+ Tonya Evinger  to Win by Decision +125
+ Darko Stosic  to Win by TKO/KO +160
ODDS: +485
BET: 3u
RETURN: 17.55u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Alexander Gustafsson  to WIN -334
+ Aleksandar Rakic  to WIN -188
+ Frank Camacho  to WIN -125
ODDS: +258
BET: 10u
RETURN: 35.83u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Makwan Amirkhani  to WIN -110
+ Damir Hadzovic  to WIN -175
+ Frank Camacho  to WIN -125
ODDS: +440
BET: 7u
RETURN: 37.8u

BET #2
+ Darko Stosic  to WIN -110
+ Sung Bin Jo  to WIN -143
+ Alexander Gustafsson  to WIN -334
ODDS: +322
BET: 5u
RETURN: 21.08

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Sergey Khandozhko  to WIN -160
+ Joel Alvarez to WIN  -110
+ Eduarda Santanna  to WIN +100
ODDS: +520
BET: 3u
RETURN: 18.61u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Sung Bin Jo  to Win Inside the Distance +115
+ Makwan Amirkhani  to WIN -110
+ Aleksandar Rakic  to WIN -188
ODDS: +529
BET: 4u
RETURN: 25.15u

BET #2
+ Tonya Evinger  to Win by Decision +125
+ Darko Stosic  to Win by TKO/KO +160
+ Manuwa/Rakic  Total Rounds Under 1.5 -108
ODDS: +1027
BET: 4u
RETURN: 45.07

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Makwan Amirkhani $7900
+ Alexsandar Rakic $8900
+ Frank Camacho $8000
+ Darko Stosic $8700
+ Sun Bin Jo $8800
+ Danil Belluardo $7700

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Alexander Gustafsson -334 vs Anthony Smith +250

Gus is a monster and with Rumble retired and DC at HW, the big Swede is the unquestioned #2 LHW in the UFC. I just don’t see Smith taking him out. The betting public agrees. Gus was getting a more playable line around the -240 mark, but has been bet heavy. I agree with that. Smith is the more likely to have a post-title fight letdown and Gus is fighting at home. I have Gus as a Gold play despite the heavy price. He will work well with my other 2 top plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I would like to add Gus, but he is just too expensive for my lineup options. It was already difficult to build a lineup, more so with him in it. Smith is also a tough out. Pass.

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Jimi Manuwa +162 vs Aleksandar Rakic -188

The loss of Latifi/Oezdemir hurts, but this is still a good co-main with some betting potential. We are getting a very good deal here. AR opened around the -279 mark and has climbed in value significantly. Manuwa is coming in on a 3 fight skid which often promotes a bet on him and that could be the case here if he can rally, but Rakic is the better fighter. He has more tools to win this one and has his prize improves he becomes a better and better option. Gold play for the Austrian.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Rakic has shown he can put up volume. Work the takedown game. And finish. Manuwa can be finished. Those are all ideal scenarios for our fantasy team. Add him.

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Makwan Amirkhani -110 vs Chris Fishgold -110

We have seen a bit of a swing here for Amirkhani. He was the slight dog at the open and now is even or a slight fav depending on the site. Fishgold is an action fighter, but his win over Teymur shouldn’t be seen as that big of a deal. He tends to give up position on the mat and over-extends when striking. I am not a huge fan of Amirkhani, but this is a good spot for him. I considered MA as a Gold play, but I will take him as a Silver pick instead.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Amirkhani in my lineup. He is sub $8000 and could score a finish if Fishgold starts to crash. Our hands are tied on this card with the costs. Add him.

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Damir Hadzovic -175 vs Christos Giagos +150

Hadzovic opened as a sizeable favourite at around -275. He has moved considerably and can even be found at -160 on some sites. Giagos has an avenue to victory here but he will need to avoid the cardio issues that have plagued him. Hadzovic’s wrestling looked better and he is the superior striker with more power. I feel he edges out Giagos in almost all areas unless he ends up on his back and Giagos doesn’t gas. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Way too expensive for our lineup despite the potential for a finish. Pass.

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Daniel Teymur +120 vs Sung Bin Jo -143

Based on what he has shown so far, Teymur is a one trick pony at this level. He has power and bleak gas tank. Once the initial exchanges calm down, he starts to slow down. There is some unknown about SBJ, but we do know he is physically the superior fighter and just overall the more promising competitor. He opened close to -200 so the unknown could be helping us here as bettors jumping on DT. I’m curious how many backed him thinking it was his more accomplished brother. Sung slides into the Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $8800 he is expensive, but not as expensive and other potential finishers. Look for Teymur to fade and Sung to overrun him with offense on route to a wide decision.

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Rostem Akman +130 vs Sergey Khandozhko -160

There is a lot of unknown here. The line is young so the movement has been minimal. We don’t know much about either. What we do know is that Sergey is the more experienced fighter and coming in on a full camp. Akman is debuting, short notice, quick turn around, and he has just 5 pro bouts. That is a lot of unknown or concerning factors. Enough to attempt a Bronze play on an unknown fighter.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here.

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Tonya Evinger -300 vs Lina Lansberg +240

Nope. Evinger is still looking for his first win and Lansberg is at home. I understand the line, but it is not worth the risk here. TE was worth a look at the open around -175, but not now. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

A finish could materialize, but I expect a slow grinding bout that goes the distance.

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Stevie Ray +170 vs Leonardo Santos -200

If Santos wasn’t coming off a massive layoff I jump on him here, but he has been inactive for just too long. It is crazy to think that he has never lost in the UFC. Ray is vulnerable on the mat, but like in the Lauzon fight- if Santos falters after a strong start. Ray will get after him. Better options elsewhere. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing on either side.

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Nick Hein +100 vs Frank Camacho -125

Camacho appeared to be okay on route to making the weight and if that carries over to the fight we are in good shape. He was just too small at WW, but should have a sizeable length advantage here. Hein’s unwillingness to include his Judo into his offense is brutal. Could he add it in to try to end a 2 fight skid? I don’t know. I like the number we are getting on “The Crank”. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Camacho has shown he can get over 100 sig. strikes in a fight and he has finishing skills. He should be able to score us some points one way or another. Add him.

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Bea Malecki -125 vs Eduarda Santanna +100

We have 2 inexperienced and debuting fighters. This pick came down to who/what I liked more based on the limit footage that is out there. Santanna is the more aggressive fighter and Malecki seems like she is vulnerable to giving up takedowns. We could see a combo of striking and top control leading to a decision win for Santanna. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here.

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Darko Stosic -110 vs Devin Clark -110

The Swing here has been massive. Stosic opened around -265 and is now sitting at even with Clark. How does Devin win? With his wrestling. He could land a knockout blow, but that leaves him open to getting his chin tagged. Stosic hits hard and should be able to capitalize on Clark’s aggression. I also expect him to look more comfortable after his debut. I considered him for a Gold play, but he is still relatively new to the UFC. Stil has something to show me. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

He is affordable and will most likely get a finish if he wins this. Again, not my favourite lineup but he makes sense to me.

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Joel Alvarez -110 vs Danilo Belluardo -110

Another even betting line. Alvarez was a slightly larger favorite so we are getting some value here. He has a little more UFC experience to draw upon and his sub skills should be a nice counter to the TD reliance of Belluardo. Alvarez is part of a trio of lesser-known betting options in the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With the bankroll almost tapped out, we turn to a counter bet to get the steal us some points. Of all the options, I like Belluardo to possibly do some damage. As is usually the case, the early fights end in a finish and if he gets it- that is a solid score for us. Add him

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Confidence List

1. Alexander Gustafsson -334

2. Frank Camacho -125

3.Sung Bin Jo -143

4. Aleksandar Rakic -188

5. Tonya Evinger -300

====================

6. Damir Hadzovic -175

7. Makwan Amirkhani -110

8. Darko Stosic -110

9. Leonardo Santos -200

10. Joel Alvarez -110

11. Eduarda Santanna +100

12. Sergey Khandozhko -160

 

Value Bet List

1. Frank Camacho -125

2. Makwan Amirkhani -110

3. Darko Stosic -110

4. Joel Alvarez -110

5. Eduarda Santanna +100

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Darko Stosic to Win by TKO/KO +160

Clark has been finished on multiple occasions and Stosic is a pretty big hitter. I don’t expect to see Stosic winning this fight any other way than by knockout. Better return than I expected.

2. Joel Alvarez to Win by Submission +200

Alvarez has won the majority of his fights by sub and his opponent likes to shoot and leave his head exposed. I think Joel has the skills to catch a debuting fighter if he makes that mistake. Decent return based on the numbers.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
9
14
15
3 of 15 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
168850%

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FPO Candidate

1. Rostem Akman/Sergey Khandozhko

This fight is better left untouched. Just too much unknown.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
148657%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
102820%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Makwan Amirkhani -110 vs Chris Fishgold -110

2. Daniel Teymur +120 vs Sung Bin Jo -143

3. Rostem Akman +130 vs Sergey Khandozhko -160

4. Nick Hein +100 vs Frank Camacho -125

5. Bea Malecki -125 vs Eduarda Santanna +100

6. Darko Stosic -110 vs Devin Clark -110

7. Joel Alvarez -110 vs Danilo Belluardo -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
84404448%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
84404448%

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Prop Bets

Jimi Manuwa/Aleksandar Rakic Total Rounds Under 1.5 -108

This play keeps both fighters finishing skills in our favour. Rakic rediscovered his finishing skills against Clark after a pair of decision wins. He can replicate that success here against another fighter with a questionable chin. Manuwa has gone beyond the opening frame in back to back fights after back to back first round finishes. Rakic can also be hurt as we saw last time out and Manuwa has the power to do it. Play the Under.

Sung Bin Jo to Win Inside the Distance +115

Teymur’s gas tank is pretty weak and coupled with the aggression of SBG, he could be in some serious trouble if we head to the second half of the fight. With Teymur’s vulnerability on the mat, let’s keep the sub in play here and look for a finish of any nature out of the debuting Korean fighter.

Rostem Akman/Sergey Khandozhko

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Tonya Evinger to Win by Decision +125

While a finish could materialize on the mat, I expect this fight to be a grind. Look for Evinger to focus on control. She will put Lansberg on the wall and on the floor to control her for the full 15 minutes.

Darko Stosic/Devin Clark

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Joel Alvarez/Danilo Belluardo

See the Betting Scenario Section.