UFC 238: Cejudo vs Moraes Bet Pack Review

UFC 238: Cejudo vs Moraes Bet Pack Review

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Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Joanne Calderwood  to WIN -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 7u
RETURN: 13.36u

 

BET #2
+ Marlon Moraes  to WIN -143
+ Tony Ferguson  to WIN -150
ODDS: +182
BET: 10u
RETURN: 28.16u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Bevon Lewis  to WIN -175
ODDS: -175
BET: 5u
RETURN: 7.86u

 

BET #2
+ Aljamain Sterling  to WIN -138
+ Tai Tuivasa  to WIN -138
ODDS: +197
BET: 6u
RETURN: 17.85u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to WIN -125
+ Calvin Kattar  to WIN -150
ODDS: +200
BET: 5u
RETURN: 15u

 

BET #2
+ Eddie Wineland  to WIN -138
+ Xiaonan Yan  to WIN -170
ODDS: +174
BET: 4u
RETURN: 10.96u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Valentina Shevchenko  to Win by Decision +135
ODDS: +135
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.4u

 

BET #2
+ Tony Ferguson  to Win by TKO/KO +245
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to Win by Decision +140
ODDS: +728
BET: 4u
RETURN: 33.12u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Marlon Moraes  to WIN -143
+ Tony Ferguson  to WIN -150
+ Joanne Calderwood 
to WIN -110
ODDS: +441
BET: 10u
RETURN: 54.07u

Silver Plays

BET #2
+ Aljamain Sterling  to WIN -138
+ Tai Tuivasa  to WIN -138
+ Bevon Lewis 
to WIN -175
ODDS: +367
BET: 7u
RETURN: 32.72u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to WIN -125
+ Calvin Kattar  to WIN -150
+ Marlon Moraes  to WIN -143
ODDS: +410
BET: 5u
RETURN: 25.49u

BET #2
+ Eddie Wineland  to WIN -138
+ Xiaonan Yan  to WIN -170
+ Tony Ferguson  to WIN -150
ODDS: +357
BET: 5u
RETURN: 22.83u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Valentina Shevchenko  to Win by Decision +135
+ Tony Ferguson  to Win by TKO/KO +245
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to Win by Decision +140
ODDS: +1846
BET: 4u
RETURN: 77.83u

 

BET #2
+ Joanne Calderwood  to WIN -110
+ Marlon Moraes  to WIN -143
+ Aljamain Sterling  to WIN -138
+ Xiaonan Yan  to WIN -170
ODDS: +789
BET: 5u
RETURN: 44.43u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Marlon Moraes $8300
+ Tony Ferguson $8600
+ Eddie Wineland $8200
+ Joanne Calderwood $8100
+ Tai Tuivasa $7700
+ Pedro Munhoz $7700

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Henry Cejudo +120 vs Marlon Moraes -143

Cejudo is riding some big hype right now and that has played a role in bringing this line much closer. Moraes opened around -175 and rightfully so. He is bigger and a much more dangerous striker. The Dillashaw win was good, but he was drained and already known for having a bad chin- Cejudo capitalized. That won’t be the case here. Moraes simply has too many tools to deal with here. I had Marlon around -220, so this is a fantastic deal for us. Gold Play, most likely paired with my other top pick on the card.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Moraes is a finisher. On the mat or on the feet (more likely) he is a capable stopper. We have seen Cejudo put down before and I certainly feel it can happen again. With several big favs, MM is def affordable and will have 5 rounds to produce if he can’t get the finish.

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Valentina Shevchenko -1400 vs Jessica Eye +800

Yeah, I am going to pass here. I might look at a prop option, but in its current form, this fight is not worth a look.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pass here too.

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Tony Ferguson -150 vs Donald Cerrone +125

This is another one of my top Gold plays. Cerrone is riding high, but Ferguson is an entirely different animal. While Cerrone has tripped up against top-level competition, Tony has thrived. His style is a perfect foil to what Cowboy wants. Unless Tony walks into a counter he can win this fight with volume or by stopping Donald. Tony opened at a massive -245 and has steadily improved as public money comes in on the fan favourite. Add Ferg to your top plays. I will most likely hook him up with Moraes.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Despite this fight scheduled for just 3 rounds, Tony can still put up solid totals. Honestly, he has the ability to finish Cerrone with both single strikes or an overwhelming barrage. We are getting a deal at $8600. Add him.

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Jimmie Rivera +275 vs Petr Yan -350

I love this fight and I had hoped it would be lined much closer than this. Rivera is no easy out and Yan is still climbing the ranks. As a result, this fight is a pass for now.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Similar here. Yan could get a stoppage, but the cost is too much to bare.

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Tai Tuivasa -138 vs Blagoy Ivanov +110

Tuivasa opened around -165 and has improved over the week. I am not impressed with BI. Even in his WSOF fights, he was underwhelming against lower-level competition. Ivanov likes to sit back and counter and struggled at times to do it effectively in both his UFC fights. Tai will walk forward and as long as his durability holds up, this is a winnable fight. The main concern is that Balgoy opts to use his wrestling. I like TT in my Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Tai is a finisher and while Blagoy is durable, he is hittable. Look for Tai to come out hungry after his first career loss and look for a strong rebound fight. Add him.

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Tatiana Suarez -800 vs Nina Ansaroff +550

A clear no play, but I will look at the prop options.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Too expensive, unfortunately.

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Aljamain Sterling -138 vs Pedro Munhoz +110

With Sterling, we have lost a little value here as he opened around the -115 mark. As much as we want to get the best price this isn’t the end of the world as I still feel Sterling is a solid investment. I really like Munhoz and had him over Garbrandt, but I feel his style of pressure striking and being opportunistic has a ceiling. This is in. Silver play for Sterling.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With a number of favourites in my lineup, I have to go with a counter bet and Munhoz is my man. If Pedro is going to walk away with this one it will almost certainly be by finish either a sub or knockout. If he hits at this low of a price, we are in good shape.

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Karolina Kowalkiewicz -125 vs Alexa Grasso +100

I really went back and forth on this one. KK has underperformed in recent fights, but even her last performance is capable of hanging with Grasso- at least from a volume perspective. The lin is almost even which isn’t surprising, but at the open KK was a sizeable favourite around -195. The public bet heavy on Grasso which makes sense to me, but I think this is a great spot to get on the more active striker. Lots of good plays tonight. Bronze for KK.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Her volume could work for us, but KK is too expensive for a fight that will most likely go the distance. Pass.

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Ricardo Lamas +125 vs Calvin Kattar -150

I gave Lamas a good long look here. I feel he can win this fight, but the scenarios are limited to a knockout or snap submission. Kattar is the more active striker and has more tools here. Lamas has had issues with fighters he can’t hurt. I think Kattar gets out in front and keeps pushing. Could be close, Bronze play for Kattar.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Kattar could get the finish, but he is a little too much for what we have available. Pass.

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Xiaonan Yan -170 vs Angela Hill +140

Yan’s line has moved against us which knocked her from my Silver plays. She was originally around the -135 range and I had her closer to even with Hill. This is a close fight and could be one that heads to the judges with us unsure who gets the nod. I think Yan’s superior power and defense is the key. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Yan has yet to show us her finishing skills in the UFC. Pass.

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Bevon Lewis -175 vs Darren Stewart +150

I am a little concerned that Stewart’s late rallying style meshes well with what we saw from Lewis in his debut. I still picked Bevon because that scenario is a puncher’s chance and I expect to see a better performance out of him with his debut under his belt. Lewis will utilize his wrestling to get passed Stewart. DS has to show he can do much against a strong wrestler. Silver Pick.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With our options tying our hands,  I will pass on Lewis here.

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Eddie Wineland -138 vs Grigory Popov +110

Popov’s record is not impressive when you do a little digging and that makes Wineland a major step up in competition. Eddie’s style leaves him wide open, but it is also hard to get a solid read on him. The line has hardly moved at all which tells me there are a lot of people on both sides or no one is really interested in betting this fight. I like Eddie here as the more proven commodity. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Wineland gets the call here. When he wins it is usually by knockout which is the type of points we are looking for.

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Katlyn Chookagian -110 vs Joanne Calderwood -110

JoJo opened as a big favourite around -175 and this fight and climbed to par since then. I love it. Chookagian struggles with TDs/ Clinch attack and that will be the key here for Calderwood. Chook likes to use volume, but it is pretty low impact and won’t do much. JoJo will eat her up with the more impactful offense and well-timed takedowns. Gold Play for the Scot.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Calderwood is affordable and has shown she can finish. I’m not sure if she gets the finish here, but again based on my plays our hands are a little tied. Add her.

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Confidence List

1. Tatiana Suarez -800

2. Valentina Shevchenko -1400

3. Marlon Moraes -143

4. Tony Ferguson -150

5. Joanne Calderwood -110

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6. Petr Yan -350

7. Tai Tuivasa -138

8. Aljamain Sterling -138

9. Bevon Lewis -175

10. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -125

11. Calvin Kattar -150

12. Xiaonan Yan -170

13. Eddie Wineland -138

 

Value Bet List

1. Marlon Moraes -143

2. Joanne Calderwood -110

3. Tony Ferguson -150

4. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -125

5. Tai Tuivasa -138

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Eddie Wineland/Grigory Popov Total Rounds Under 2.5 +130

Both guys have finishing skills and both guys have been finished before. I think Popov is overmatched here, but Wineland does leave himself open. I like having 2.5 rounds, but fully expected to see it at 1.5 rounds.

2. Katlyn Chookagian/Joanne Calderwood

I will leave this one alone. Calderwood is a key play and I will take a victory anyway she can get it. Pass.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Tatiana Suarez to Win in Side the Distance -125

Suarez is a monster. Her wrestling is unparalleled in the division and she is coming off a win that sets her up for a title shot with another strong performance. Nina has looked good as well, but she is facing an opponent that will challenge her TDD which has been an issue. Look for Suarez to grind her down and eventually get the finish either via GNP or a sub.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Henry Cejudo +120 vs Marlon Moraes -143

2. Tony Ferguson -150 vs Donald Cerrone +125

3. Tai Tuivasa -138 vs Blagoy Ivanov +110

4. Aljamain Sterling -138 vs Pedro Munhoz +110

5. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -125 vs Alexa Grasso +100

6. Ricardo Lamas +125 vs Calvin Kattar -150

7. Eddie Wineland -138 vs Grigory Popov +110

8. Katlyn Chookagian -110 vs Joanne Calderwood -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Valentina Shevchenko to Win by Decision +135

Eye has been finished just once over her entire career. Shevchenko has shown she can finish, but the majority of her UFC wins have gone the distance. The veteran savvy of Eye will be enough to get this one to the cards.

Tony Ferguson to Win by TKO/KO +245

Ferg is aggressive and will push a heavy pace. A pace that I do not believe Cerrone can hold up against. With Cowboy’s chin and body serving as key targets, Ferg will eventually put him down. Solid return.

Tatiana Suarez/Nina Ansaroff

See Betting Scenario Section.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz to Win by Decision +140

This will help us to get a little more value out of KK. She has just 1 career win by KO and a pair of submission wins- all outside the UFC. Grasso has been finished once, by Suarez. I like KK to simply outwork her here start to finish and get it on the cards.

Eddie Wineland/Grigory Popov

See Betting Scenario Section.

Katlyn Chookagian/Joanne Calderwood

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

 

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