Thank you for purchasing the Kamikaze Overdrive Betting Package for UFC on FX 6
Event Specific Password: down_undermma
Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available
The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.
*Parlays rely heavily on Pierce and Pokrajac, with only 8 (7 if you exclude Mendes) fights to work with having not predicted the other two TUF prelim fights , I am using them as my base and building around them.=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 2: Colin Fletcher $1.87 =================================================== Price: $3.83 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Ross Pearson 2.10 Selection 2: Hector Lombard 1.50 =================================================== Price: $3.15
Nick Penner $2.05 vs Cody Donovan $1.74
Late replacement fights are hard to predict, especially when the new guy is debuting and has limited footage of his previous bouts. This can also make the line harder to establish for the odds makers. Penner didn’t get the W in his debut, but the sweep he pulled off against a high level BJJ guy like Perosh caught my attention. If he is capable of pulling off moves like that on the mat and is as strong a Muay Thai striker has his credentials would imply, then he should be in a good spot here. Donovan seems to be a little one dimensional, relying heavily on grappling to win fights. If he is unable to get the better of Penner on the ground consistently, he is going to get lit up in this fight. Donovan stands 6’3″ and is use to being the bigger fighter in his career, but with Penner standing an inch taller it will be interesting to see how Donovan reacts to that reversal of roles. I was a little shocked with this line and unless I am missing something here Penner should win this fight under almost all circumstances. Penner was actually the favourite against Persoh (I picked Perosh), and Perosh had fought and won a couple of times in the UFC prior to the fight and is a talented grappler, yet the odds makers made Penner the fav there and now have him the dog here. I am a little confused. I didn’t have Penner in my top 5 confidence list because of the unknown elements surrounding Donovan, but he was close. I would recommend a mid range single wager on Nick and inclusion of him into a parlay or two, but be careful not to go to over the top in case Donovan is really a diamond in the rough. For Donovan he is a no play until I see him at this level, especially when he pays below $2.00.
Seth Baczynski $3.25 vs Mike Pierce $1.35
I like both of these fighters and have been following them for a little while now. This fight makes sense for both guys, Seth is trying to make the next step up in competition and Pierce is a perfect testing point. For Pierce he has already had a run against the top level, but needs to reaffirm his position against a talented climber like Baczynski. With Baczynski size he could and has given a lot of fighters difficulty at WW. Pierce is also physical specimen, but packed into a much different package. If Seth can keep the distance and out point Pierce he could win this fight, but that would be a change from what he is normally use to. Pierce is a hard nosed guy who can really grind on his opponent and I expect him to have no trouble getting inside of Baczynski and working his game. Lance Benoist was able to use takedowns and ground work to do damage against Seth and Pierce is a far more effective wrestler/ grappler then Benoist. Pierce did get smashed in his opening round fight against Aaron Simpson so he is far from invulnerable, but to this point the only guys that have been able to beat him are top level guys- Kos, Fitch, and Hendricks. Again I like Seth and have had a good read on him so far in his UFC career correctly predicting all 3 of his fights, but I my initial thought was him losing this fight and the research really changed nothing. I would have liked to have seen Pierce up a little closer to $1.45, but that isn’t the case so far. I would consider doubling him up with Igor Pokrajac for a nice low risk/ alright reward style bet and he should also be worked into your parlays with regularity. For Seth he has some value and could be worth a single bet.
Joey Beltran $3.60 vs Igor Pokrajac $1.29
Beltran is best known for his ability to take a beating and stick around. Unfortunately taking a good ass kicking doesn’t always and recently hasn’t equated to victories. The trend that Pokrajac’s losses have been influenced by a heavy ground based attack from his opponents seems to be a valid one with 3 fights based on takedowns and one a submission defeat. Beltran really isn’t known for either and I don’t see that changing any time soon. Beltran tries to remain technical and use footwork and jabs to set up his power, but in this fight he needs to brawl the boxer. If Beltran can get inside and land some damaging shots he could change the face of the fight, but even so we really haven’t seen him demonstrate that big one punch knockout ability. His only TKO win in the UFC came when his opponent couldn’t maintain the pace and faded leading to the TKO stoppage on the mat. I don’t see Igor falling into that trap, in fact I actually expect to see Pokrajac’s shooting and taking Beltran down frequently in the fight. This should make Joey hesitate when he comes forward and give Igor an added edge to the technical advantage he already has. Joey took some huge shots against Te-Huna and stuck it out, but there were some close moments. Igor has power, enough to KO Joey I don’t know, but it is clear a career of damage is starting to take its toll for Beltran. I would use Igor in combination with Pierce as I already mentioned and on most parlays. For a single bet he doesn’t offer a huge return, but I think he is a fairly safe bet. For Beltran he has a puncher’s chance, but not a very good one- stay away from him.
Yaotzin Meza $8.00 vs Chad Mendes $1.07
I wasn’t even sure if this fight would be offered and taking a look at these odds, it probably wasn’t worth the time to put them up. Mendes should win this fight and he is my #1 Confidence pick because he is my my most confident play, simple enough. He doesn’t pay much which is to be expected. I would say this either leave this fight alone or if you really need the few extra bucks you could add Mendes to your parlays, but if he does falter you could have your night ruined for the sake of a small increase in payout. You have been warned. For Meza, is he worth a bet at $8.00? Most likely not but if you make a deposit, cover all the bets you want to make and still have $10 left over why not throw it down and hope for a miracle upset, this is MMA after all and bat shit crazy stuff does happen once every now and again.Rousimar Palhares 2.60 vs Hector Lombard 1.50
I am really looking forward to this fight and feel that these two provide an interesting match-up. The winner gets right back into the mix at 185, a place that both were not that long ago. Palhares’s success hinges upon the fight going to the mat, either through his doing or the the short sighted efforts of his opponent. Although his striking has improved, he still is a grappling based fighter. If this fight hits the ground Palhares will be attacking and looking to sub Lombard, but Alan Belcher proved that going to the mat with the Brazilian, although dangerous, is not a death sentence. Lombard is a tough guy to take off his feet with his Judo background and this is what I am banking on. Palhares also seems to have a problem getting hit and he has a tendency to react poorly. Dan Miller stunned him with a little shot and the way he shut down once Belcher connected didn’t exactly instill a lot of confidence. Lombard does a nice job of punishing his opponent on failed takedown attempts and I could see Palhares eventually quitting after taking a few big shots to the melon. Lombard’s performance was far from anything that was expected based on his Bellator hype and the potential that an injury took away from his performance only helps a little bit. Lombard knows a second defeat here could put a hit on his title contention aspirations that he may never recover from. I expect him to come out motivated looking for the win and while Palhares represents a significant threat, I do think Hector has the skills and strength to defend and defeat Rousimar. At anywhere from $1.40 and up I would put a single bet on Lombard and use him in a parlay maybe a nice little trio of Lombard, Pearson, and Igor or Pierce. For Palhares he has talent and has the ability to win this fight, I think a small play here would be appropriate especially the closer he gets to $3.00.
Norman Parke $1.87 vs Colin Fletcher $1.87
The first of three Ultimate Fighter tournament finals this weekend. TUF finals can be tough to predict with the long layoff between their final fight on the show and a lot of questions about how each fighter will react on the big show. Fletcher has fought in BAMMA twice which should give him an experience edge and his size and length are a big obstacle for Parke. Both guys are submission first fighters and in the footage I have seen of Fletcher he is a handful on the mat, even when his opponent gets the initial advantageous position. Fletcher’s ability to try subs that most shorter men cannot consider is a big tool and should have Parke second guessing his positioning. Parke will have a wrestling edge, but Fletcher often counts on his opponents to take the fight down so I don’t see this being a huge problem for him. On the feet I like Fletcher’s use of kicks and long reach to keep him out of danger. Either way I think this is a close fight and some books do have Fletcher as the fav so if you are doing your betting this weekend, jump on Fletcher before he drops. I would suggest a single bet on Fletcher and working him into your parlays as the best course of action. Another option if Parke has moved above $2.00 at your book would be to use Fletcher in your parlays and then make a single bet on Parke as a backup that way you make some cash with a Parke win and if Fletcher wins your parlays are still good to go.
Brad Scott $2.70 vs Robert Whittaker $1.45
To be up front I was a little shocked when I saw these odds and the first thing I thought of was- what did I miss???? Is Whittaker really this big of a favourite? Both guys have similar records and Scott actually has a edge in size (height/reach). I know these things aren’t everything but they are something to build on with two young fighters. I had a really hard time picking this fight and reverted back to my initial reaction. I liked the way Scott moved on the feet when striking and was a little put off of how Whittaker looked against Lucas when under attack. I also think that Whittaker’s two knockouts on the show are playing a role in how these odds are set up. I am going to keep this one short and sweet, I do prefer Scott as a fighter but I am a little concerned with betting odds placing Whittaker as such a heavy favourite. My suggestion would be to make a single play on Scott and leave it at that. Unfortunately with only 8 fights for this event I have limited options and will probably use Scott in at least one parlay and if it works great if it doesn’t I will have limited the damage. For Whittaker, again I think this is a close fight so I don’t see him having a tonne of value at $1.45. I think these two should be closer together with odds similar to the Fletcher/Parke fight, so I will be passing on Whittaker at such a low number.
Ross Pearson 2.10 vs George Sotiropoulos 1.71
For the first time in what seems like ages we are actually going to get to see two coaches fight at the end of the season (there is still time for this to change I know). Pearson and Sots are two the more notable representatives of their respective countries and that is why they got the nod to coach here. Unfortunately, this fight doesn’t have a tonne of relevance in the division. Sotiropoulos did have a nice run and was creeping into title contention, but that was at the expense of a lot of fighters who are no longer with the company. When he moved up to face Dennis Siver and Raphael dos Anjos he got squashed (two big upsets, both predicted by yours truly). For Pearson he has fought at 145 in his last two bouts and I believe he will return there once this event concludes so this fight is simply about getting a win not so much advancing up the ranks. Across the board these odds are changing and although Pearson is still the doggie, the gap is narrowing. Part of the concern with Pearson is that he really doesn’t have one outstanding aspect of his game that people can point at and say- “that…that right there is why he will win this fight”. He is scrappy, he has a decent amount of quickness and although he could be classified as a typical British brawler/ striker he actually has more submission wins then knockouts. On the other hand, G-Sots is a ground specialist and has looked really good at times dominating the opposition. If he can get his opponent down and keep him there then he wins, it is as simple as that. The counter argument for that is if he can’t get the takedowns he doesn’t win- see the Siver fight for a perfect example. Yes the Aussie has some boxing skills, but I wouldn’t be too keen backing him on his striking alone. Further taking away from Sots abilities are his age (35) and his time out of action (17 months). One of those factors should be enough to deter a bettor, but put both of them together and it is massive. Do I believe that Sots can win this fight? Sure. He has to do it early, considering its a 5 rounder I just can’t see him holding Pearson down for 25 minutes or even enough to get 3 rounds on route to a decision. For Pearson, he has to work in and out, use angles, attack and then retreat. I was impressed with his last fight at 155 and I think he will feel a little stronger not having to make the cut to 145. I would suggest a single bet on Pearson and using him in your parlays, but again use a little caution. For Sots there are too many question marks for me to lay anything on him, especially in the position of the favourite.
1. Chad Mendes
2. Igor Pokrajac
3. Hector Lombard
4. Mike Pierce
5. Ross Pearson
-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays
1. Ross Pearson 2.10
2. Nick Penner $2.05
3. Colin Fletcher $1.87
4. Brad Scott $2.70
5. Hector Lombard 1.50
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Hector Lombar/ Rousimar Palhares Total Rounds Under 2.5– I would even consider taking this at under 1.5. Lombard has power and Palhares has a shut off switch that fighters have found in the past. Additionally, if Palhares is able to lock up a leg and get the tap/ snap scenario going in his favour it will most likely come early in the fight. Play the Under.
Chad Mendes/ Yaotzin Meza Total Rounds Under 2.5– You should probably stick with this one at 2.5. I am banking on Mendes either TKOing Meza or locking up a submission (guillotine most likely). Under 1.5 is still a possibility, but it could be cutting it short. If you can get it at the 2.5 mark it gives Meza plenty of time to gas out based on the short notice if Mendes isn’t able to put him away early. This bet is probably the best betting option this fight has to offer.
Mike Pierce/ Seth Baczynski Total Rounds Over 2.5– Both guys have the ability to finish fights, but I think this one is going deep into round three and probably to the judges. Baczynski’s size should create just enough problems for Pierce that he can’t put him away, but Mike should be able to grind out the win over 15 minutes. This fight might not be the prettiest, but this bet puts you on the right side of that possibility.
Ross Pearson to Win by Decision $2.70– Pearson won’t be submitting G-Sots and a knockout is a possibility, but I think he will try to point fight his way to a win. By point fighting and not getting too aggressive it should limit the Aussie’s chances to complete takedowns. 5 rounds is a long way to go but at $2.70 it is worth the look.