Kamikaze Overdrive Deluxe Package
Thank you for purchasing the Kamikaze Overdrive Deluxe Betting Package for UFC on FX 6 & TUF 16 Finale
Event Specific Password: christmas_mma
Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available
The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.
UFC on FX 6
Parlay Doubles
*Parlays rely heavily on Pierce and Pokrajac, with only 8 (7 if you exclude Mendes) fights to work with having not predicted the other two TUF prelim fights , I am using them as my base and building around them.
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 2: Colin Fletcher $1.87 =================================================== Price: $3.83 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Ross Pearson 2.10 Selection 2: Hector Lombard 1.50 =================================================== Price: $3.15Parlay Triples
=================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Mike Pierce $1.35 Selection 2: Igor Pokrajac $1.29 Selection 3: Ross Pearson 2.10 =================================================== Price: $3.66========================================
Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 2: Hector Lombard 1.50 Selection 3: Brad Scott $2.70 =================================================== Price: $8.30Parlay Double-Doubles
=================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Mike Pierce $1.35 Selection 2: Igor Pokrajac $1.29 Selection 3: Ross Pearson 2.10 Selection 4: Colin Fletcher $1.87 =================================================== Price: $6.84 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Hector Lombard 1.50 Selection 2: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 3: Igor Pokrajac $1.29 Selection 4: Mike Pierce $1.35 =================================================== Price:$5.36Big Parlay (I couldn’t come up with a name for this one)
=================================================== Parlay #7 =================================================== Selection 1: Hector Lombard 1.50 Selection 2: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 3: Igor Pokrajac $1.29 Selection 4: Mike Pierce $1.35 Selection 5: Colin Fletcher $1.87 Selection 6: Ross Pearson 2.10 Selection 7: Brad Scott $2.70 =================================================== Price: $26.50A Puncher’s Chance
=================================================== Parlay #8 =================================================== Selection 2: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 3: Igor Pokrajac $1.29 Selection 4: Mike Pierce $1.35 Selection 5: Colin Fletcher $1.87 Selection 6: Ross Pearson 2.10 Selection 7: Chad Mendes $1.07 =================================================== Price: $56.78Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Nick Penner $2.05 vs Cody Donovan $1.74
Late replacement fights are hard to predict, especially when the new guy is debuting and has limited footage of his previous bouts. This can also make the line harder to establish for the odds makers. Penner didn’t get the W in his debut, but the sweep he pulled off against a high level BJJ guy like Perosh caught my attention. If he is capable of pulling off moves like that on the mat and is as strong a Muay Thai striker has his credentials would imply, then he should be in a good spot here. Donovan seems to be a little one dimensional, relying heavily on grappling to win fights. If he is unable to get the better of Penner on the ground consistently, he is going to get lit up in this fight. Donovan stands 6’3″ and is use to being the bigger fighter in his career, but with Penner standing an inch taller it will be interesting to see how Donovan reacts to that reversal of roles. I was a little shocked with this line and unless I am missing something here Penner should win this fight under almost all circumstances. Penner was actually the favourite against Persoh (I picked Perosh), and Perosh had fought and won a couple of times in the UFC prior to the fight and is a talented grappler, yet the odds makers made Penner the fav there and now have him the dog here. I am a little confused. I didn’t have Penner in my top 5 confidence list because of the unknown elements surrounding Donovan, but he was close. I would recommend a mid range single wager on Nick and inclusion of him into a parlay or two, but be careful not to go to over the top in case Donovan is really a diamond in the rough. For Donovan he is a no play until I see him at this level, especially when he pays below $2.00.
Seth Baczynski $3.25 vs Mike Pierce $1.35
I like both of these fighters and have been following them for a little while now. This fight makes sense for both guys, Seth is trying to make the next step up in competition and Pierce is a perfect testing point. For Pierce he has already had a run against the top level, but needs to reaffirm his position against a talented climber like Baczynski. With Baczynski size he could and has given a lot of fighters difficulty at WW. Pierce is also physical specimen, but packed into a much different package. If Seth can keep the distance and out point Pierce he could win this fight, but that would be a change from what he is normally use to. Pierce is a hard nosed guy who can really grind on his opponent and I expect him to have no trouble getting inside of Baczynski and working his game. Lance Benoist was able to use takedowns and ground work to do damage against Seth and Pierce is a far more effective wrestler/ grappler then Benoist. Pierce did get smashed in his opening round fight against Aaron Simpson so he is far from invulnerable, but to this point the only guys that have been able to beat him are top level guys- Kos, Fitch, and Hendricks. Again I like Seth and have had a good read on him so far in his UFC career correctly predicting all 3 of his fights, but I my initial thought was him losing this fight and the research really changed nothing. I would have liked to have seen Pierce up a little closer to $1.45, but that isn’t the case so far. I would consider doubling him up with Igor Pokrajac for a nice low risk/ alright reward style bet and he should also be worked into your parlays with regularity. For Seth he has some value and could be worth a single bet.
Joey Beltran $3.60 vs Igor Pokrajac $1.29
Beltran is best known for his ability to take a beating and stick around. Unfortunately taking a good ass kicking doesn’t always and recently hasn’t equated to victories. The trend that Pokrajac’s losses have been influenced by a heavy ground based attack from his opponents seems to be a valid one with 3 fights based on takedowns and one a submission defeat. Beltran really isn’t known for either and I don’t see that changing any time soon. Beltran tries to remain technical and use footwork and jabs to set up his power, but in this fight he needs to brawl the boxer. If Beltran can get inside and land some damaging shots he could change the face of the fight, but even so we really haven’t seen him demonstrate that big one punch knockout ability. His only TKO win in the UFC came when his opponent couldn’t maintain the pace and faded leading to the TKO stoppage on the mat. I don’t see Igor falling into that trap, in fact I actually expect to see Pokrajac’s shooting and taking Beltran down frequently in the fight. This should make Joey hesitate when he comes forward and give Igor an added edge to the technical advantage he already has. Joey took some huge shots against Te-Huna and stuck it out, but there were some close moments. Igor has power, enough to KO Joey I don’t know, but it is clear a career of damage is starting to take its toll for Beltran. I would use Igor in combination with Pierce as I already mentioned and on most parlays. For a single bet he doesn’t offer a huge return, but I think he is a fairly safe bet. For Beltran he has a puncher’s chance, but not a very good one- stay away from him.
Yaotzin Meza $8.00 vs Chad Mendes $1.07
I wasn’t even sure if this fight would be offered and taking a look at these odds, it probably wasn’t worth the time to put them up. Mendes should win this fight and he is my #1 Confidence pick because he is my my most confident play, simple enough. He doesn’t pay much which is to be expected. I would say this either leave this fight alone or if you really need the few extra bucks you could add Mendes to your parlays, but if he does falter you could have your night ruined for the sake of a small increase in payout. You have been warned. For Meza, is he worth a bet at $8.00? Most likely not but if you make a deposit, cover all the bets you want to make and still have $10 left over why not throw it down and hope for a miracle upset, this is MMA after all and bat shit crazy stuff does happen once every now and again.
Rousimar Palhares 2.60 vs Hector Lombard 1.50
I am really looking forward to this fight and feel that these two provide an interesting match-up. The winner gets right back into the mix at 185, a place that both were not that long ago. Palhares’s success hinges upon the fight going to the mat, either through his doing or the the short sighted efforts of his opponent. Although his striking has improved, he still is a grappling based fighter. If this fight hits the ground Palhares will be attacking and looking to sub Lombard, but Alan Belcher proved that going to the mat with the Brazilian, although dangerous, is not a death sentence. Lombard is a tough guy to take off his feet with his Judo background and this is what I am banking on. Palhares also seems to have a problem getting hit and he has a tendency to react poorly. Dan Miller stunned him with a little shot and the way he shut down once Belcher connected didn’t exactly instill a lot of confidence. Lombard does a nice job of punishing his opponent on failed takedown attempts and I could see Palhares eventually quitting after taking a few big shots to the melon. Lombard’s performance was far from anything that was expected based on his Bellator hype and the potential that an injury took away from his performance only helps a little bit. Lombard knows a second defeat here could put a hit on his title contention aspirations that he may never recover from. I expect him to come out motivated looking for the win and while Palhares represents a significant threat, I do think Hector has the skills and strength to defend and defeat Rousimar. At anywhere from $1.40 and up I would put a single bet on Lombard and use him in a parlay maybe a nice little trio of Lombard, Pearson, and Igor or Pierce. For Palhares he has talent and has the ability to win this fight, I think a small play here would be appropriate especially the closer he gets to $3.00.
Norman Parke $1.87 vs Colin Fletcher $1.87
The first of three Ultimate Fighter tournament finals this weekend. TUF finals can be tough to predict with the long layoff between their final fight on the show and a lot of questions about how each fighter will react on the big show. Fletcher has fought in BAMMA twice which should give him an experience edge and his size and length are a big obstacle for Parke. Both guys are submission first fighters and in the footage I have seen of Fletcher he is a handful on the mat, even when his opponent gets the initial advantageous position. Fletcher’s ability to try subs that most shorter men cannot consider is a big tool and should have Parke second guessing his positioning. Parke will have a wrestling edge, but Fletcher often counts on his opponents to take the fight down so I don’t see this being a huge problem for him. On the feet I like Fletcher’s use of kicks and long reach to keep him out of danger. Either way I think this is a close fight and some books do have Fletcher as the fav so if you are doing your betting this weekend, jump on Fletcher before he drops. I would suggest a single bet on Fletcher and working him into your parlays as the best course of action. Another option if Parke has moved above $2.00 at your book would be to use Fletcher in your parlays and then make a single bet on Parke as a backup that way you make some cash with a Parke win and if Fletcher wins your parlays are still good to go.
Brad Scott $2.70 vs Robert Whittaker $1.45
To be up front I was a little shocked when I saw these odds and the first thing I thought of was- what did I miss???? Is Whittaker really this big of a favourite? Both guys have similar records and Scott actually has a edge in size (height/reach). I know these things aren’t everything but they are something to build on with two young fighters. I had a really hard time picking this fight and reverted back to my initial reaction. I liked the way Scott moved on the feet when striking and was a little put off of how Whittaker looked against Lucas when under attack. I also think that Whittaker’s two knockouts on the show are playing a role in how these odds are set up. I am going to keep this one short and sweet, I do prefer Scott as a fighter but I am a little concerned with betting odds placing Whittaker as such a heavy favourite. My suggestion would be to make a single play on Scott and leave it at that. Unfortunately with only 8 fights for this event I have limited options and will probably use Scott in at least one parlay and if it works great if it doesn’t I will have limited the damage. For Whittaker, again I think this is a close fight so I don’t see him having a tonne of value at $1.45. I think these two should be closer together with odds similar to the Fletcher/Parke fight, so I will be passing on Whittaker at such a low number.
Ross Pearson 2.10 vs George Sotiropoulos 1.71
For the first time in what seems like ages we are actually going to get to see two coaches fight at the end of the season (there is still time for this to change I know). Pearson and Sots are two the more notable representatives of their respective countries and that is why they got the nod to coach here. Unfortunately, this fight doesn’t have a tonne of relevance in the division. Sotiropoulos did have a nice run and was creeping into title contention, but that was at the expense of a lot of fighters who are no longer with the company. When he moved up to face Dennis Siver and Raphael dos Anjos he got squashed (two big upsets, both predicted by yours truly). For Pearson he has fought at 145 in his last two bouts and I believe he will return there once this event concludes so this fight is simply about getting a win not so much advancing up the ranks. Across the board these odds are changing and although Pearson is still the doggie, the gap is narrowing. Part of the concern with Pearson is that he really doesn’t have one outstanding aspect of his game that people can point at and say- “that…that right there is why he will win this fight”. He is scrappy, he has a decent amount of quickness and although he could be classified as a typical British brawler/ striker he actually has more submission wins then knockouts. On the other hand, G-Sots is a ground specialist and has looked really good at times dominating the opposition. If he can get his opponent down and keep him there then he wins, it is as simple as that. The counter argument for that is if he can’t get the takedowns he doesn’t win- see the Siver fight for a perfect example. Yes the Aussie has some boxing skills, but I wouldn’t be too keen backing him on his striking alone. Further taking away from Sots abilities are his age (35) and his time out of action (17 months). One of those factors should be enough to deter a bettor, but put both of them together and it is massive. Do I believe that Sots can win this fight? Sure. He has to do it early, considering its a 5 rounder I just can’t see him holding Pearson down for 25 minutes or even enough to get 3 rounds on route to a decision. For Pearson, he has to work in and out, use angles, attack and then retreat. I was impressed with his last fight at 155 and I think he will feel a little stronger not having to make the cut to 145. I would suggest a single bet on Pearson and using him in your parlays, but again use a little caution. For Sots there are too many question marks for me to lay anything on him, especially in the position of the favourite.
Whole Event Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Chad Mendes $1.07
2. Igor Pokrajac $1.29
3. Hector Lombard 1.50
4. Mike Pierce $1.35
5. Ross Pearson 2.10
6. Nick Penner $2.05
7. Colin Fletcher $1.87
8. Brad Scott $2.70
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. Ross Pearson $2.10
2. Nick Penner $2.05
3. Colin Fletcher $1.87
4. Brad Scott $2.70
5. Hector Lombard 1.50
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. Rousimar Palhares 2.60
2. Seth Baczynski $3.25
3. Norman Parke $1.87
4. No Play
5. No Play
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Prop Bets-
Hector Lombar/ Rousimar Palhares Total Rounds Under 2.5– I would even consider taking this at under 1.5. Lombard has power and Palhares has a shut off switch that fighters have found in the past. Additionally, if Palhares is able to lock up a leg and get the tap/ snap scenario going in his favour it will most likely come early in the fight. Play the Under.
Chad Mendes/ Yaotzin Meza Total Rounds Under 2.5– You should probably stick with this one at 2.5. I am banking on Mendes either TKOing Meza or locking up a submission (guillotine most likely). Under 1.5 is still a possibility, but it could be cutting it short. If you can get it at the 2.5 mark it gives Meza plenty of time to gas out based on the short notice if Mendes isn’t able to put him away early. This bet is probably the best betting option this fight has to offer.
Mike Pierce/ Seth Baczynski Total Rounds Over 2.5– Both guys have the ability to finish fights, but I think this one is going deep into round three and probably to the judges. Baczynski’s size should create just enough problems for Pierce that he can’t put him away, but Mike should be able to grind out the win over 15 minutes. This fight might not be the prettiest, but this bet puts you on the right side of that possibility.
Ross Pearson to Win by Decision $2.70– Pearson won’t be submitting G-Sots and a knockout is a possibility, but I think he will try to point fight his way to a win. By point fighting and not getting too aggressive it should limit the Aussie’s chances to complete takedowns. 5 rounds is a long way to go but at $2.70 it is worth the look.
TUF 16 Finale
Parlay Doubles
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Shane del Rosario $1.65 Selection 2: Jamie Varner $2.00 =================================================== Price: $3.30 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Mike Ricci $1.48 Selection 2: Roy Nelson $1.48 =================================================== Price: $2.19Parlay Triples
=================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: T.J. Waldburger $1.71 Selection 2: Tim Elliott $1.50 Selection 3: Dustin Poirier $1.47 =================================================== Price: $3.77========================================
Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Shane del Rosario $1.65 Selection 2: Johnny Bedford $1.40 Selection 3: John Cofer $2.60 =================================================== Price: $6.00Parlay Double-Doubles
=================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Jamie Varner $2.00 Selection 2: Mike Ricci $1.48 Selection 3: Mike Pyle $1.35 Selection 4: Dustin Poirier $1.47 =================================================== Price: $5.87 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Tim Elliott $1.50 Selection 2: Roy Nelson $1.48 Selection 3: Johnny Bedford $1.40 Selection 4: Shane del Rosario $1.65 =================================================== Price: $5.13Big Parlay (I couldn’t come up with a name for this one)
=================================================== Parlay #7 =================================================== Selection 1: Tim Elliott $1.50 Selection 2: Roy Nelson $1.48 Selection 3: Johnny Bedford $1.40 Selection 4: Shane del Rosario $1.65 Selection 5: Dustin Poirier $1.47 Selection 6: Mike Ricci $1.48 Selection 7: Jamie Varner $2.00 =================================================== Price: $22.31A Puncher’s Chance
=================================================== Parlay #8 =================================================== Selection 1: Reuben Duran $2.25 Selection 2: Roy Nelson $1.48 Selection 3: John Cofer $2.60 Selection 4: Shane del Rosario $1.65 Selection 5: T.J. Waldburger $1.71 Selection 6: Mike Ricci $1.48 Selection 7: Jamie Varner $2.00 =================================================== Price: $72.31Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Hugo Viana $1.65 vs Reuben Duran $2.25
Paging Reuben Duran…Reuben Duran welcome back to the UFC. Duran quietly built up a little bit of interest in his first 2 fights and then injuries put him on the sidelines. As I mentioned in the prediction- a split decision defeat against the likes of Takeya Mizugaki on short notice is no easy feet. I am really not shocked that Viana is the favourite here. He was well liked on TUF Brazil and went to the final-four of the tournament losing to the eventual winner. I di pick Duran, but not without some hesitation. This is going to be a very close fight and the layoff for Duran is a concern. I actually like the fact that Duran is the dog here as it adds more value to him. This being the first fight of the night many will miss it, but I would suggest you tune in early and check it out. My play is a small single bet on Duran and possibly including him in a parlay, but just one. I really feel the way to go here is a single bet, so either back Viana or Duran but not both.
Jared Papazian $2.60 vs Tim Elliott $1.50
This is one of those fight predictions that just fell together prior to doing any research. My first thought was that Papazian should drop to Flyweight, then when he got paired up with Elliot my initial instinct was that Elliot’s takedowns and grappling would be the deciding factor. I am trying to avoid making changes to my initial pick unless research shows me something I wasn’t considering (I was orginally on Raphael Assuncao based on his counter striking ability, and switched to Easton…moving on). In this case I didn’t see anything that changed my opinion on this fight. This is a tough first fight for Papazian at 125 with Elliot being a larger Flyweight. I would think that Papazian would fair better against a smaller adversary who he could bully around the cage. Elliot had a great showing against Dodson in his debut and I am really hoping he doesn’t regress here facing a lesser opponent where he is now the favourite. I will be using Elliot at $1.50, I was hoping this number would be a little closer to $1.70, but I’ll take it. Elliot makes a decent addition to the parlays, but with that level of uncertainty surrounding Papazian dropping a weightclass I won’t go over the top and use him too often. For the same reason, I will leave Jared off my betting card as well.
John Cofer $2.60 vs Mike Rio $1.50
These odds jumped off the page at me. I saw nothing that indicated Rio being this big of a favourite and actually expected this one to be a pick’em. Cofer impressed me with his aggressive style against Lawrence and for Rio I was actually a little disappointed in the footage that I saw of him. Both guys are wrestlers with rough striking skills and of the two I favoured Cofer. Rio has been out of action for a while which is a concern, but at the same time we have seen a lot of TUF guys return from the show and break that follows with a much improved skill set. Another edge that Cofer has in his favour is the ‘Octagon jitters’ issues, he shouldn’t have them where Rio is making his first appearance and could be impacted. The long and short of it is that I think Cofer is better then these odds would indicate and he should be worth a single bet at the very least. I will probably also work him into a parlay or two, but nothing too crazy. For Rio, I want to see him in the Octagon before I lay money down on him as a fav.
Marcos Vinicius $2.90 vs Johnny Bedford $1.40
I actually went against the stats here. Bedford has a history of getting submitted, but the trends are showing he is working to improve that area of his game. I guess this fight will help to determine where he is at with his submission defense. One thing Bedford likes is the ability to bully around his opponent, with a physical top game heavy ground game. For Vinicius, that is exactly what happened to him in his last fight and he really didn’t have an answer for it. In fact, I felt he looked very poor in that fight and wouldn’t even be with the company had he not scored that huge come from behind knockout at the start of the third. Bedford’s time away is a concern too, which I seem to be saying a lot tonight, but I think his skill edge will make up for it. Marcos has never faced an American wrestler before and that is also big factor in my prediction. Bedford at $1.40 is a good deal, and he didn’t quite crack my top 5 confidence list but he was pretty close. I would advocate a mid-range bet on Bedford and working him into your parlays. Vinicius is a no play.
Rustam Khabilov $1.33 vs Vinc Pichel $3.40
For this fight I couldn’t find a tonne of footage on Pichel, but I did watch some his fights and read the PBP for a couple others. His issues with the ground game is what stood out to me, especially after seeing how effective Khabilov is on the ground. Additionally, Pichel has the type of record that will impress, most but you have to consider the shortcomings of winning all 6 of your fights by KO/TKO with only one going past the midway mark of the fight. Yes I am aware that he had two wins on the show by submission, but I still believe my logic is sound. Pichel hasn’t faced adversity yet in his career and he hasn’t been faced with an opponent that he couldn’t knock out. When that day comes, and I think it is less then 24 hours as way from when I am writing this, it is going to be significant. I expect that Khabilov is going to put Vinc on his back and either grind out the win or submit him. The odds on Pichel are high, really high but I don’t think he is worth the bet here. For Khabilov there is always the question of how he will fair moving from Russia to North America, but his dominant win State side over Jason Dent should help to quell those cries. I would play Khabilov as a piece of the parlay puzzle, not really worth single bet with a debuting fighter paying less then $1.35.
T.J. Waldburger $1.71 vs Nick Catone $2.10
Quickly looking over this card we have an absurd amount of ‘unknown factors’ with multiple fighters either debuting, returning after a long layoff, or changing division (sometimes more then just one of these) and this fight is no different. Catone fits into the last category. The guy is a powerful wrestler and if the cut goes well he could be dangerous at 170, but that is a big cut that can take a lot out of a fighter. Waldburger relies on speed to set up his submission. The way in which he was able to knock Stumpf off balance with a kick and then instantly jump on his back was outstanding. He did something similar in his win over Jake Hecht as well, jumping him before Jake could properly react and finishing the fight. Even the great submission defense artist Brian Ebersole was put in a few tough spots with TJ attacking aggressively and locking in subs that would finish most. I don’t like how Catone’s greatest attribute, his wrestling, puts him directly in the line of fire and if Catone makes a mistake he might not get a chance to recover. Waldburger’s chin issues are real and if Catone connects he could crumple, but that is a risk I am willing to take here. I think a small bet on Catone is worth a shot, he has some value at anything over $2.00 and he does have a strong wrestling base which could be enough to defend the multiple submission attempts that will be coming his way. For Waldburger, I would suggest a decent single bet on him as he does have a nice return. I also intend to use him a couple of my big parlays, but because of his rather large knockout numbers I will have some big potential payouts devoid of his name as well.
James Head $3.25 vs Mike Pyle $1.35
These odds are either a little bit disrespectful to James Head or a suggestion of how good Mike Pyle is, maybe both. The last two people to beat Mike Pyle were Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger, two of the top guys @ 170. Pyle is a veteran who has done and seen just about everything in this sport. He is a fantastic grappler, but more importantly he is improving his striking and is coming off of back to back wins by knockout. James Head on the other hands has debut at 170 with 2 straight wins. His victory over Brian Ebersole was a little bit of a letdown, but still he did what he needed to do to get his hand raised. I like Head’s striking and if he can keep this fight standing he should have a slight edge over Pyle, big ‘IF” though. Head has been taken down in each of his UFC bouts and I was not that impressed with what I saw from him in the position. He did show a good sprawl against Ebersole, but I expect Pyle will do a better job getting in close to land his takedowns instead of shooting from the outside. My suggestion for this bet is a mid-range single play on Head, he has some excellent value at anything above $2.50 and most books have him significantly higher. For Pyle use him as part of your parlays, he adds some bulk to your payout and with the single bet on Head you are covered in the event of an upset.
Jonathan Brookins $2.75 vs Dustin Poirier $1.47
Brookins had a lot of success during his run on the show, but for the most part he is one dimensional and that has been exposed during his current UFC run. His wrestling/ submissions are the key to his success and when he is on, he is good. Unfortunately if he is faced with either a fighter that is able to outright defend his grappling and keep the fight standing or someone who is just a better grappler and is able to take it to him, he is in trouble. I wasn’t impressed with his fight against Erik Koch where he basically tried to hold him against the cage for the entire fight when he was unable to take him down. He has shown improvement, but his stand-up skills are still his weakness. For Dustin Poirier, he is coming off of a sobering effort against the Korean Zombie where he was eventually submitted and he will be looking to rebound. Poirier is pretty well rounded- he is capable of fighting on his feet, but he has had a lot of success on the mat as well. I would think in this fight he will try to exploit the greatest talent gap and work his striking against while mixing in takedowns when he can and is necessary. At nearly $1.50 Poirier is a good buy, but I expect that his number is going to drop so buy early- a single bet at anything over $1.40 works for me and inclusion on most major parlays. For Brookins, his inability to deal with decent strikers concerns me and I would like to see improvement in his stand-up before I back him against a fighter like Poirier.
Jamie Varner $2.00 vs Melvin Guillard $1.91
This could be one of the best fights of the night and has potential to win anyone of the Sub, KO, or Fight of the Night awards. Guillard was close to contention and then hit a wall with his ugly submission problems coming back to bite him on the backside.Varner, a former WEC champ, seems to have regained his form and has pulled off a huge upset and been part of one of the best fights of the year against Joe Lauzon since coming back to the UFC. Guillard seemed to turn a corner when he joined Jackson’s and he has subsequently gone back around that corner once he left. I am a fan of both guys, but I think the deciding factors will be a mental lapse on the part of Guillard and the the power double/ wrestling of Varner. Guillard is a great striker with ridiculous power but his concern with being taken down stunts his abilities on the feet and he really hasn’t been the same since the Lauzon fight. Varner has decent striking of his own with 9 knockouts and I really like the way he works the body and then follows with a big overhand right. Guillard’s chin is a question mark- see the Lauzon and Cerrone fights for proof. Even if Melvin can keep this fight standing I still prefer what Varner brings with his power and diversity. Both guys have a tendency to slowdown late in fights, but I don’t think this one is going the distance. I would suggest using Varner for one of your bigger bets where he pays anything over $1.85. The odds are moving so don’t wait and if you want to bet on Guillard, which he does have potential especially if he connects with a big shot, shop around and find the best price.
Pat Barry $2.25 vs Shane del Rosario $1.65
Shane del Rosario really impressed me in his last fight, even though he lost. He was making his debut and doing it after a huge layoff of well over a year. I think he could very well beat Miocic in a rematch, but Barry comes first. Normally in fights involving Pat Barry, HD is the better striker and his opponent will need to rely on the ground game to get the win. That might not be the case here. SDR is a pretty darn good kickboxer in his own right and his significant size advantage could really create problems for Barry. I actually think this is the type of fight that will either end Barry’s run in the UFC or send him down to Light Heavyweight. In fact there are rumblings that he is working on getting down to 205, which could leave him even more undersized in this fight. While I do think that the striking is going to be entertaining and that SDR could win this bout on the feet with the apparent chin issues that Barry appears to be having, the ground game could still play a big role. SDR has won 2 of his last 3 victories by submission and one of them was against Lavar Johnson. Johnson, like Barry is weak on the ground. SDR could have easily stood and traded with him, but instead choose to exploit a weakness and tap him out, which was an intelligent move. I expect something similar here, but at the same time if del Rosario lands flush on Pat’s chin a submission might not be required. In the end I really like SDR and at $1.65 he has a tonne of value and should be your biggest single bet of the night, probably the weekend. For Barry I really like the guy as a person, but I just don’t see him winning this fight based on his chin, his poor grappling skills, and questionable fight IQ.
Colton Smith $2.60 vs Mike Ricci $1.48
Ultimate Fighter Tournament Finals time. This bout reminds a lot of the Nijem/Ferguson final of a couple years ago. Nijem used his grappling (like Colton) to get through the tournament only to run into a more well rounded Ferguson (like Ricci) who had the ability to defend the takedown and has far superior striking. If Ricci is able to put a shot on Colton’s chin he is going to sleep. Smith has limited experience while Ricci comes out a far better camp and should have been tested by far better grapplers in camp then what Smith will be able to bring. I really don’t need to go into this breakdown too far, Smith needs the takedown and to do it with consistency. For Ricci he is the better striker and could very well be the better grappler too. For betting, I would suggest a decent sized single bet on Ricci and using him on the majority of your parlays. For Smith, his striking deficiency is too great to consider betting on him even as a backup.
Matt Mitrione $ 2.70 vs Roy Nelson $1.48
Mitrione has a lot of potential and the tools to beat a gut like Roy Nelson, but coming off of his last performance I greatly question his ability to compete against upper level competition. Mitrione seemed very hesitant against Kongo and unwilling to engage. I attribute that to a lack of wanting to be taken down and what we eventually saw in that fight is that Mitrione’s hesitation was for a legitimate reason with Kongo putting on his backside and beating him up. For Nelson, he has a powerful right hand, a granite chin, and he is pretty good on the ground. Physically he is nothing special and should be competing at LHW, but I am in no position to criticize. Nelson grounds skills are solid, but the conditioning issue and 5 round fight combination do have me a little leery. I know he is working on it, but still it is far from fixed. I expect Roy is going to try and keep this bout from going too far, working hard to shut it down inside the first 3 rounds. Mitrione’s layoff raises two questions; what will be the impact of ring rust and how much has Matt improved (if at all) in his time away from the cage. I picked against Nelson when he fought Dave Herman. I expected Herman would be able to use kicks, distance, and speed to outpoint Roy- that fight lasted less then a minute. Mitrione could do the same but that glaring issue that is Matty’s grappling game is too significant to overlook. Most likely Nelson will try to take him down, beat him up, and maybe even negotiate himself in to the crucifix position ASAP for the stoppage. I will be using Nelson as part of my parlays, but with a great deal of caution as I think Mitrione has a better chance then these odds let on. For Mitrione, a small bet by himself would work as he does have a decent return.
Whole Event Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Mike Ricci $1.48
2. Shane del Rosario $1.65
3. Dustin Poirier $1.47
4. Mike Pyle $1.35
5. Roy Nelson $1.48
6. Johnny Bedford $1.40
7. Jamie Varner $2.00
8. Rustam Khabilov $1.33
9. John Cofer $2.60
10. Tim Elliott $1.50
11. T.J. Waldburger $1.71
12. Reuben Duran $2.25
Top 5 Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. Shane del Rosario $1.65
2. Jamie Varner $2.00
3. T.J. Waldburger $1.71
4. Reuben Duran $2.25
5. John Cofer $2.60
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. James Head $3.25
2. Nick Catone $2.10
3. Melvin Guillard $1.91
4. Hugo Viana $1.65
5. Matt Mitrione $ 2.70
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Prop Bets-
Tim Elliot/Jared Papazian Total Rounds Over 2.5– Flyweights get a lot of criticism for not finishing fights, but I think that people blow this a little out of proportion. Although in this fight I think we are going to see a judges decision. Elliot could sub Papazian and Papazian could pull off the knockout, but both are low percentage chances. Play the Over.
TJ Waldburger/Nick Catone Total Rounds Under 2.5– Pretty simple reasoning here- Waldburger has the flash submission potential and Catone has the power to add a sixth knockout to TJ’s resume. Play the Under.
Pat Barry/ Shane del Rosario Total Rounds Under 1.5 or 2.5– Heavyweight bouts often go shorter then most fights and most likely your book will have this one set at 1.5 rounds. Both guys have knockout capabilities and the submission is also in play for SDR. Play the under.
Mike Ricci to Win by KO/TKO/DQ– Colton has already been knocked out once in his short 4 fight pro career and he strikes me as the type that if he gets put in a bad position he is going to fold up. I know he is a tough guy, military guy, but if Ricci can put hands or elbows on him he is going to sleep.
Melvin Guillard/ Jamie Varner Total Rounds Under 2.5– Both guys have knockout capabilities and Varner also packs submission skills. Figure in Guillard’s propensity for getting tapped out and a chin that seems vulnerable and I don’t think this one is going the distance. Play the Under.
Combined Bet Pack
Parlay Doubles
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Shane del Rosario $1.65 Selection 2: Hector Lombard 1.50 =================================================== Price: $2.48 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Ross Pearson $2.10 Selection 2: Jamie Varner $2.00 =================================================== Price: $4.20Parlay Triples
=================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Mike Ricci $1.48 Selection 2: Mike Pierce $1.35 Selection 3: Dustin Poirier $1.47 =================================================== Price: $2.94========================================
Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 2: T.J. Waldburger $1.71 Selection 3: Colin Fletcher $1.87 =================================================== Price: $6.56Parlay Double-Doubles
=================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Shane del Rosario $1.65 Selection 2: Jamie Varner $2.00 Selection 3: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 4: Ross Pearson $2.10 =================================================== Price: $14.21 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Tim Elliott $1.50 Selection 2: Hector Lombard 1.50 Selection 3: Reuben Duran $2.25 Selection 4: Mike Ricci $1.48 =================================================== Price: $7.49Big Parlay (I couldn’t come up with a name for this one)
=================================================== Parlay #7 =================================================== Selection 1: Mike Ricci $1.48 Selection 2: Shane del Rosario $1.65 Selection 3: Dustin Poirier $1.47 Selection 4: Roy Nelson $1.48 Selection 5: Mike Pierce $1.35 Selection 6: Hector Lombard 1.50 Selection 7: Igor Pokrajac $1.29 =================================================== Price: $13.88A Puncher’s Chance
=================================================== Parlay #8 =================================================== Selection 1: Shane del Rosario $1.65 Selection 2: Jamie Varner $2.00 Selection 3: John Cofer $2.60 Selection 4: T.J. Waldburger $1.71 Selection 5: Ross Pearson $2.10 Selection 6: Nick Penner $2.05 Selection 7: Reuben Duran $2.25 =================================================== Price: $142.11Top 5 Combined Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Chad Mendes $1.07
2. Mike Ricci $1.48
3. Shane del Rosario $1.65
4. Igor Pokrajac $1.29
5. Dustin Poirier $1.47
Top 5 Combined Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. Shane del Rosario $1.65
2. Jamie Varner $2.00
3. Ross Pearson 2.10
4. Colin Fletcher $1.87
5. T.J. Waldburger $1.71
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
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