Thank you for purchasing the Kamikaze Overdrive $12 Betting Package for the UFC on FOX 7 event
Event Specific Password: UFC_vs_SF
Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available
The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.
*I have started to use Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.
==================================================Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1:Francis Carmont $1.77 Selection 2: Anthony Njokuani $1.65 Selection 3: Tim Means $2.36 =================================================== Price: $6.89
A Puncher’s Chance
Parlay #8- Why the Hell not?
Selection 1: Cormier by Decision $5.00
Selection 3: Tim Means $2.36
Selection 4: Hugo Viana $4.25
Selection 5: Clifford Starks $2.40
Selection 6: Mein by KO/TKO/DQ $3.20
Selection 7: Henderson by TKO $7.15
Price: $7545.51 – yikes!!!!
===================================================Parlay #12 =================================================== Selection 1: Njokuani/ Bowling Over 2.5 $1.61 Selection 2: Benson Henderson $1.41 Selection 3: Francis Carmont $1.77 Selection 4: Hugo Viana $4.25 =================================================== Price: $17.17 =================================================== Parlay #13 =================================================== Selection 1: Njokuani/ Bowling Over 2.5 $1.61 Selection 2: Benson Henderson $1.41 Selection 3: Francis Carmont $1.77 Selection 4: Clifford Starks $2.40 =================================================== Price: $9.70 =================================================== Parlay #14 =================================================== Selection 1: Njokuani/ Bowling Over 2.5 $1.61 Selection 2: Benson Henderson $1.41 Selection 3: Francis Carmont $1.77 Selection 4: Mein by KO/TKO/DQ $3.20 =================================================== Price: $12.93
Romero has so much potential and honestly I think that is what these odds are based on, but never once has Bruce Buffer announced “and your winner by potential…”. Many talented guys from other combat sports backgrounds have failed to meet expectations in when they try their hand at MMA. Romero has 5 career fights, 4 KO wins over relative unknowns and a second round knockout against Feijao that was preceded by a full round of dancing and circling from Romero. Starks has some tools, he too is a wrestler but not at the level of Romero. Then again, different fighters translate their wrestling to MMA with varying levels of success, look at Kamal Shalorus for example. Either way I think that Starks has the ability to take this fight especially when you consider the potential impacts of Romero’s near 20 month layoff, his UFC debut, a 20 pound weight cut from LHW to MW, and to make it all worse he has next to no experience to draw upon to help him prepare. When you look at all of these factors and that Romero is the favourite it is clear that the value of this fight lies with Starks. I would say a mid-range bet make sense and I would also consider working him into at least one parlay.
There is a lot of people on the Roger Bowling train for this fight, but I am not one of them. He is making his UFC debut and also cutting from 170 to 155 for the first time. His cardio has been his worst enemy throughout his career and unless he really gets things under control it should be an issue here again. He struggles to fight a full 3 rounds at a high pace and it is his pace that makes his attack more effective. His wrestling is only so-so and he has striking power and some decent options with his hands, but against the Muay Thai of Njokuani he will easily be the second best striker in the cage. Njo has had issues with wrestlers before but looking at Danny Castillo his wrestling is far superior to what Bowling brings, Danny had a tonne of trouble landing maintaining his takedowns. Most likely Bowling will come out very strong and then start to fade in round 2 or Njokuani’s TDD and superior striking will carry the flow of the fight from start to finish either way the former WECer taks this. I like his value, he offers a lot to the parlays. I will most likely be using him a couple of times and I will also consider a bet on the total rounds Over 2.5.
I have been waiting for a matchup like this for Dillashaw for a long time. I almost pulled the trigger on the Lee fight, but felt Lee was vulnerable enough on the mat that TJ could capitalize on. If TJ can’t or chooses not to take this fight to the ground then the odds swing decidedly closer then where they are now. Viana mas big power despite only one knockout win. He throws from his feet and is able to unload with a high volume of punches. If he gets too aggressive then Dillashaw is going to duck under and shoot on him, but I really like some of the things I see if this fight stays vertical. One of the biggest red flags that popped up is the way in which TJ hangs his lead left hand. It leaves him open for an opponent to come over the top with a right hand and with the power, speed, and distance that Hugo can cover this is a real possibility. I would be blowing smoke if I tried to tell you that Dillashaw can’t win this fight, he can, but it needs to come with his wrestling. I think he is being totally overvalued here and Viana has the skillset to take him out. There are two plays here. The first is of course a single bet on Viana and I will even consider working him into a parlay or two because his value is so high. The other option is to hit the total rounds under 2.5. I picked Viana by knockout and Dillashaw by KO or sub is also a real possibility and would end this fight inside the first 2.5 rounds most likely. The second is the safer bet, but the first packs a whole pile of potential profit if it hits.
I love this bet, but I fully anticipate that Means is going to drop in value as we get closer to bell time. Quickly looking at Bestfightodds.com I see that a couple of sites have him as low as 2.05 now, but the rest range between 2.20 and 2.36. Masvidal is good there is no mistaking it, but he is just way to tentative. Even against guys like Justin Wilcox that he could easily outstrike he seemed to hold back and that resulted in a much closer split decision then it really should have been. Mean’s Muay Thai is solid and he is much more aggressive and has that killer instinct that Masvidal seems to lack. Masvidal will open up when he gets his opponent hurt, but until then it is just jab, jab, jab and nothing too aggressive. Means on the other hand will be much more assertive and unless he gets caught his aggression and wider variety of strikes will win over the judges. I like Tim for a big single bet, that is why I’ve got him ranked #1. He is also a solid parlay play with some nice value to beef up your return. I also think the over in this fight is a good play. Masvidal hasn’t finished anyone since 2009 and he should be defensively sound enough to avoid getting put away.
Benavidez is simply the more well-rounded fighter here. Uyenoyama needs to get his fight to the ground which will be tough and even then he needs to do it in a position where he can attack from- harder still. Benavidez is the better striker and although I felt his technique was his downfall against Johnson, I was impressed with him against McCall. Most likely this fight ends with either a knockout/ submission or a very frustrated Uyenoyama struggling to keep up on the feet- either way its a win for Benavidez. Benavidez doesn’t offer a much for the win and although I think he wins this one handily the risk/reward of including him on a parlay isn’t that enticing. I let you decide if you want to include him or not.
I felt Nijem would get more credit then being a better then 3-1 dog. At the same time, Jury looked strong in his last fight and has the tools to win, but maybe not in the run away that these odds suggest. I didn’t think the line would be even, but I had Jury paying around the $1.60-1.75 range. Some people might be under the disillusion that this type of line can be exploited because of a ‘mistake’ made by the books when they undervalued Nijem. Yes I think the odds should be closer, but no I don’t think Ramsey wins this fight and whether he pays $2.25, $3.24, or $6.55 they all payout the same when a fighter losses. Some might suggest that the value makes Ramsey too good to pass up. I have used this line of logic before, but only when I feel the underdog has a good chance to win. This is MMA and anything can happen, but I did my breakdown well before the lines were posted and I felt Jury wins this bout in almost all scenarios. Either way, Myles has a little value at $1.41 and will most likely will be used on a parlay bet or two.
Based on the public picks, he betting public is favouring Larkin, the dog, at a 69% clip which I find a little shocking. The trend so far is that when the betting public is this heavily in favour of the dog they only win 40% of the time, but this scenario has only happened 5 times so that sample size is way too small to consider it legitimate. Carmont has more to offer then Larkin, his striking is just as good and his ground game is far superior. The nice thing about the public being so heavily on Larkin is that it appears the numbers are starting to move and the value of Carmont is going up. On at least one book the line has moved to even and although I don’t expect to see Carmont as the dog by bell time, any swift in his direction is a good one. I think Carmont is worth a mid-range single bet and he also offers a lot as far as increasing the value of your parlays. Playing Carmont, Njokuani and Means together would have a nice payout and I think its a solid bet.
Short and sweet, no value here with Mendes as he just pays too little to risk a bet. I might consider a small play on Elkins as he has value, ranging as high as $6.45 on some books. Mendes has the better skillset but Elkins is a tough dude and offers something that we really have seen Mendes tested against in a while. Most likely I will just sit this one out, but if my book gets Elkins up over $6.00 I might take a stab.
This should a really entertaining scrap for two reasons- Mein is a very talented fighter and Matt Brown is gritty as hell. I had Mein to take out Miller by knockout and played the prop accordingly and it paid off big time. I intend to do the same again with Mein paying in the $3.40 range. At $1.30 he isn’t that enticing to win straight up, maybe worth one inclusion on a parlay but nothing too big. Mein winning by TKO is a decent bet, even though Brown has never been stopped he clearly takes a lot of damage and has been hurt before in fights. Brown could pull the upset here, but he will need to run a perfect race through some pretty rocky terrain and do it by scoring and maintaining his takedowns. Mein does have issue with grappling defense, but outside of the Woodley fight and a few outings earlier in his career he has really clean things up on the ground. I would Think Mein by TKO along with a couple of the other dogs (Means & Starks) would provide a nice parlay return if you are interested. I like Matt Brown but he comes up short here.
This was my first official upset pick on this card as I did the prelims after the main card predictions as per usual. I really went back and forth on this fight and ended on the Punk. Honestly this fight could go either way and wouldn’t surprise me not matter the outcome. The public picks sections currently favours Josh Thomson 24-12 (67%) and so far the Public has not been good at picking upsets with an overall record of 5-16, but they are 2-3 in the 65-69% range where this fight currently sits which the best of any of the underdog percentages. A lot of people want to point at the Miller/ Diaz fight and use that as their reasoning for feeling Nate will take this fight and I can totally side with them, but at the same time he is coming off a serious wrestling based beat down which was similar to other Diaz vs wrestler match ups. Thomson’s kicks are another key to him winning this fight. He throws a lot including a nice front kick to the midsection which should serve to keep Diaz from continually pushing forward. My guess is a close decision win for punk and playing him as a mid-range single bet is my advice. I will also be working him in a parlay as well, but again nothing too extensive as this one is going to be close.
Is the Cormier hype real? Well considering he smashed both Barnett and Bigfoot Silva with relative ease I think it is and this fight will give him his next big name victim. Can Frank Mir win this fight? Sure, but there is a but. The only scenario I see Frankie taking this one home in is if he gets dropped by Cormier and then when Dan moves in to close the deal he relinquishes all focus on defense and Mir is able to lock up a desperation submission. Its a potential scenario, see the Big Nog fight for proof, but honestly a game plan that involves getting smashed on the feet isn’t that promising. Cormier’s TDD will prevent Mir from getting the fight to the ground and his hand speed and ever improving technique couple with his power will be the final nail in the former champs coffin. Betting-wise Cormier doesn’t offer a whole lot to win straight up but his numbers improve when you look at potential outcomes. For my prediction I took Dan by knockout which is a likely scenario, but doesn’t pay much better then a straight up win. The bet I am considering is DC by decision and I will break it down for you in the prop section.
A fight that has been a long time in making and represents 3 MMA organizations with the former WEC champ and current UFC champ fighting the Strikeforce champ. All we need is Michael Chandler to make this a triple threat match and we have all the top NA MMA orgs represented in the LW division. I felt Gil lost to Thomson, he looked uninspired at points during the fight and I feel that was a product of his waning interested in competing outside of the UFC. I remember back to how badly he thrashed Kawajiri right after it was announced that the UFC had bought Strikeforce and it was clear that he would eventually be competing in the Octagon. What I expected is a much more motivated Melendez in this fight, but I think that he will suffer from the combination of an adrenaline dump after the first round, the physicality of Henderson, and a pace that he is unable to match. Henderson’s value is dropping and for the most part is barely holding onto the $1.40 mark on just a couple of site. I think the play here is Henderson by TKO/KO paying out at $7.15. Henderson isn’t a big knockout guy, but the beating he put on Diaz was spectacular. Diaz survived because he is pretty good off his back and Henderson had to be mindful, but Gilbert isn’t and I fully expected to see him overwhelmed on the ground. I would say a single bet makes sense here, it pays out pretty big on even a small investment and with the huge return a bet on 4 fights main card based on my 4 picks would provide a massive payout.
1. Daniel Cormier $1.27
2. Benson Henderson $1.41
3. Joseph Benavidez $1.20
4. Chad Mendes $1.16
5. Jordan Mein $1.30
7. Tim Means $2.36
8. Francis Carmont $1.77
9. Anthony Njokuani $1.65
11. Clifford Starks $2.40
12. Hugo Viana $4.25
-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays
|1.||Tim Means||$2.36||The line is moving closer together so pull the trigger on Means ASAP. The betting public is 62% in favour of Means which hasn’t always been a good sign, but Masvidal’s passivity is going to be the key to this fight.|
|2.||Clifford Starks||$2.40||Simply can’t bet on Romero, too many outside impacters going against him here and Starks looked decent against a talented vet in Herman.|
|3.||$2.74||This one will be close and if Thomson is going to have any impact in his UFC return this is a must win. Wrestling and kicks are his key to victory, but he needs to execute start to finish and not make mistakes.|
|4.||Hugo Viana||$4.25||Most are backing Dillashaw, but not to the extent that the lopsided odds would indicate. Viana is dangerous on the feet, but we haven’t see his ground game tested against a wrestler like this hence he ranks in at #4.|
|5.||Francis Carmont||$1.77||Public is backing Larkin and quite significantly- 26-15. I have been on Carmont from the start, his ground game is much better then most realize and that will be his key to winning this fight against the striking based Larkin.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
|1.||$5.15||I like my picks here so the non-winners list is going to be short. Elkins pays over $6.00 on some sites and that makes him worth a play. Mendes is arguably the best 145er no named Aldo, but if this becomes a kickboxing match then Elkins isn’t nearly as big an underdog.|
|2.||Matt Brown||$3.65||Mein looked like a wrecking machine against Miller, but this is still a tough fight for him. I think the two plays here are Mein by TKO/KO and then you could consider making a bet on Brown to win straight up. Either scenario happens and you come out a winner.|
|3.||Ramsey Nijem||$3.17||I think that Jury wins this fight, but Nijem I have softened a little bit on Ramsey since writing the original breakdown. I think he has the potential to be competitive, but still this is a bet only if you have extra bankroll left over after making your main bets.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Tim Means/ Jorge Masvidal Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61- Means has only gone to decision twice in his career, but Masvidal has gone the distance 16 times and I expect this to be an entertaining full 3 rounds with both guys offering enough defensively to avoid a finish. Play the Over.
Anthony Njokuani/ Roger Bowling Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56- This one could be a bit tougher as both guys have finishing capabilities. Njo has gone the distance 10 times in his career and in each of his 5 UFC bouts. Bowling only has 3 decision fights, but I see this playing out much like his fight with Tarec- Bowling won’t be able to put Njokuani away and Njo will be content to score points without over extending himself. Play the Over.
TJ Dillashaw/ Hugo Viana Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.00- This play takes into account both possibilities of Dillashaw scoring the submission or Viana landing that big overhand right for the KO. Play the Under.
Jordan Mein to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.20- Mein is beast and although Brown has never been stopped before I see Jordan putting it on him and eventually forcing the ref to step in just like he did against Dan Miller.
Daniel Cormier to Win by Decision $5.00- This one might seem perplexing with Cormier’s power and Mir’s suspect ability to take a big punch. I think that Cormier is going to take a similar approach to his fight with Barnett. Land takedowns, but no ground work, and then pick Mir apart from range with his striking. There is a risk here, but don’t be shocked if this one goes to the judges.
Ben Henderson to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $7.15- This is a risky play, but I see potential that it hits. You could play it by itself or consider a play of Mein KO, Cormier Dec, Henderson TKO, and Thomson and have a shot at a huge return on small bet. $313.46 x your bet.