UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs Burns | Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs Burns | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Spike Carlyle  to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 8u
RETURN: 16.8u

 

BET #2
+ Jamahal Hill  to Win -125
+ Antonina Shevchenko  to Win -138
ODDS: +210
BET: 8u
RETURN: 24.83u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Gilbert Burns  to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 6u
RETURN: 14.4u

 

BET #2
+ Augusto Sakai  to Win -110
+ Tim Elliott  to Win -170
ODDS: +203
BET: 6u
RETURN: 18.19u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Vince Morales  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9.55u

 

BET #2
+ Spike Carlyle  to Win +110
+ Gilbert Burns  to Win +140
ODDS: +404
BET: 5u
RETURN: 25.2u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Augusto Sakai to Win by Decision +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12u

 

BET #2
+ Mackenzie Dern   to Win by Submission -110
+ Jamahal Hill  to Win -125
ODDS: +244
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.75u

BET #3
+ Casey Kenney  to Win inside the Distance +385
ODDS: +385
BET: 4u
RETURN: 19.4u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jamahal Hill  to Win -125
+ Antonina Shevchenko  to Win -138
+ Spike Carlyle  to Win +110
ODDS: +552
BET: 10u
RETURN: 65.19u

Silver Plays

BET #2
+ Augusto Sakai  to Win -110
+ Gilbert Burns  to Win +140
+ Tim Elliott  to Win -170
ODDS: +628
BET: 8u
RETURN: 58.22u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Vince Morales  to Win -110
+ Antonina Shevchenko  to Win -138
+ Tim Elliott  to Win -170
ODDS: +423
BET: 6u
RETURN: 31.38u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Augusto Sakai to Win by Decision +200
+ Mackenzie Dern   to Win by Submission -110
+ Daniel Rodriguez  to Win inside the Distance -170
ODDS: +810
BET: 5u
RETURN: 45.48u

BET #2
+ Jamahal Hill  to Win -125
+ Augusto Sakai  to Win -110
+ Vince Morales  to Win -110
ODDS: +556
BET: 5u
RETURN: 32.8u

 

BET #3
+ Gilbert Burns  to Win +140
+ Spike Carlyle  to Win +110
+ Casey Kenney  to Win Inside the Distance +385
ODDS: +2344
BET: 5u
RETURN: 122.22u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Gilbert Burns $7400
+ Augusto Sakai $8200
+ Spike Carlyle $7600
+ Roosevelt Roberts $9200
+ Makenzie Dern $9300
+ Daniel Rodriguez $7300

Spares

+ Casey Kenney $9100
+ Vince Morales $7900
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Tyron Woodley -170 vs Gilbert Burns +140

  • Woodley is in a tough spot here- facing a rising contender looking for his shot while at the same time he is attempting to muster the momentum to reclimb the ranks- post-title fight letdown.
  • Burns doesn’t have the wrestling to take him down, but he has the BJJ to not worry about getting taken down which is big.
  • Burns was sitting around +125 when he opened so we are getting some value here with 67% picking Woodley to win the fight.
  • Burns should be able to outwork Woodley early who will tire and be even less effective late.
  • Woodley needs a KO to win. I like these odds under that scenario.
  • Silver Play for Burns.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Burns is a finisher and over 5 rounds he should be able to land with regularity on Woodley (especially as he slows down).
  • Any time you can get a finisher for under $7500 you are off to a good start.
  • Add him.

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Blagoy Ivanov -110 vs Augusto Sakai -110

  • The split is pretty even with Sakai getting 53% of the voters on Tapology.
  • Sakai was sitting around +100 and some sites have him as high as -114 now, but that is still playable.
  • I think Sakai can outwork him, use his size to muscle him around, and be more active in the later stages of the fight.
  • Lewis isn’t as capable on the feet as Sakai and he still held his own and edge him out- Augusto will too.
  • Silver play for Sakai.

Prop Bet:

  • Augusto Sakai to Win by Decision +200
  • Sakai by decision is getting a 52% nod on tapology.
  • While he is a finisher and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a stoppage, Ivanov is tough and can take a lot of damage.
  • Decisions at HW are a risk, but this one offers a solid return.

DK Lineup:

  • Despite playing Sakai to go the distance, at $8200 he offers a lot to your fantasy lineup.
  • He could produce a 100+ striking total as he did in his debut.
  • Score an early finish or possibly a late stoppage- lots of options.
  • Add him.

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Spike Carlyle +110 vs Billy Quarantillo -138

  • This should be a barn burner and I really like the edge we have here.
  • Quarantillo looked great in his debut, but he did so against an overwhelmed short-notice opponent.
  • Carlyle is a stout wrestler and has great cardio- he should also have the power edge.
  • We have lost some of the initial value on Carlyle (+130), but I still he is a great play with Billy getting blown up by his debut.
  • Gold play for Spike.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Carlyle has stopping power and has finished 3 straight in the opening round.
  • At $7600 he is an easy add with lots of potential.

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Roosevelt Roberts -350 vs Brok Weaver +275

  • This is an easy pass. Roberts should win, but the line isn’t worth it.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Roberts can pile up takedowns and is always looking to lock up a submission.
  • Weaver is too vulnerable on the mat and can be put there with regularity.
  • Add him.

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Hannah Cifers +350 vs Mackenzie Dern -450

  • No Play here either.
  • Dern needs to prove herself and if she can’t take Cifers down she will struggle.
  • Pass.

Prop Bet:

  • Mackenzie Dern to Win by Submission -110
  • Cifers is vulnerable on the mat and can be taken down.
  • Dern will most likely look to get back to her bread and butter after a tough loss.
  • 74% of Dern’s backers are taking her by sub, if you want to play this fight here is your option.

DK Lineup:

  • Dern makes the cut here.
  • She could either score multiple takedowns over a full 15-minutes or set up the sub.
  • I like her to finish.
  • Add her.

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Katlyn Chookagian +110 vs Antonina Shevchenko -138

  • The line has stayed pretty consistent which is indicative of the 53/47% split in favour of Chookagian.
  • She is coming off a title fight loss which is a big factor here.
  • It is also worth considering that AS will have the insight of her sister who just finished prepping for Chook.
  • Shevchenko’s clinch game is the key here against a fighter that likes to maintain distance.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Gabriel Green +275 vs Daniel Rodriguez -350

  • Rodriguez has gone from a short notice newcomer to a heavy favourite in just 2 fights.
  • With the late change, there is too much uncertainty with this line.
  • Pass.

Prop Bet:

  • Daniel Rodriguez to Win inside the Distance -170
  • Green has been finished twice in the opening round which is a good start here.
  • D-Rod hits hard and has a solid submission game.
  • He is also the larger man.
  • D-Rod gets the finish, keep all options open.

DK Lineup:

  • Rodriguez is still carrying the price from his matchup with Holland.
  • He will be heavily owned, but a finish is a legit possibility.
  • Add him.

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Klidson Abreu +100 vs Jamahal Hill -125

  • Hill getting a significant amount of support to the tune of 81%- not indicative of the near even odds.
  • Hill was around -175 so we are getting a solid bump in price here.
  • Abreu seems unwilling to make his BJJ his #1 focus which is a concern against a young/long/ talented fighter.
  • Abreu is tough and will keep moving forward, but Hill will damage him routinely with his speed and more varied offense.
  • Gold play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Tim Elliott -170 vs Brandon Royval +140

  • Elliott is a fun fighter, but that fun comes with risks.
  • Royval is dangerous and could capitalize on those risks.
  • That being said, Elliott is the far more experienced fighter and a sizeable step up for the new guy.
  • Royval struggled with Kenney and will struggle here, giving up position too often.
  • We are getting some value with Elliott improving from -180 and continuing to rise.
  • Silver play for Tim.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Casey Kenney -300 vs Louis Smolka +240

  • This should be an entertaining scrap, but worth betting Kenney SU.
  • I like Smolka enough to avoid taking Kenney at -300.
  • Pass.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • I have Kenney as a spare here.
  • He has a solid submission game and should be able to take down Smolka at will.
  • Work him in where needed.

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Chris Gutierrez -110 vs Vince Morales -110

  • Gutierrez was a slight favourite before the line started moving.
  • I like Morales to outwork a fighter that likes to sit back and counter.
  • I felt Morales should have got the nod over Lopez and this is a similar fight- he will learn from his mistakes.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • Morales hits hard and should find a willing partner in Gutierrez.
  • I would have considered him for the starting lineup, but Gutierrez is no easy out.

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Confidence List

1. Casey Kenney -300

2. Roosevelt Roberts -350

3. Mackenzie Dern -450

4. Spike Carlyle +110

5. Jamahal Hill -125

====================

6. Daniel Rodriguez -350

7. Antonina Shevchenko -138

8. Gilbert Burns +140

9. Augusto Sakai -110

10. Tim Elliott -170

11. Vince Morales -110

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Spike Carlyle +110

2. Gilbert Burns +140

3. Augusto Sakai -110

4. Jamahal Hill -125

5. Vince Morales -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Casey Kenney Wins Inside the Distance +385

Smolka can be finished and routinely puts himself in some bad spots. Kenney is the better wrestler and has the sub-skills to capitalize on Smolka’s recklessness on the mat. Don’t count out Kenney’s power either, he has enough pop to do some damage. The return is too solid to overlook.

2. Chris Gutierrez/Vince Morales

No play. Morales hits hard and could finish him, but Gutierrez is a tough out. I want the win SU anyway I can get it.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
11
16
17
4 of 18 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
1861233%

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FPO Candidate

1. Antonina Shevchenko to Win by Decision +110[/T1]

Chookagian is a tough out and while she was finished in her last fight and Shev finished her last opponent I see this one going the distance. Chookagian will use her movement to try and stay out of danger while Shek lands more impactful offense and presses forward more frequently. Post-title letdown hurts Chook who is normally involved in a lot of close decisions.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1511473%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
93633%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Blagoy Ivanov -110 vs Augusto Sakai -110

2. Spike Carlyle +110 vs Billy Quarantillo -138 

3. Katlyn Chookagian +110 vs Antonina Shevchenko -138

4. Klidson Abreu +100 vs Jamahal Hill -125

5. Chris Gutierrez -110 vs Vince Morales -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
85424349%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
85394646%