When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Spike Carlyle
to Win
+110
ODDS:
+110
BET:
8u
RETURN:
16.8u
BET #2
+ Jamahal Hill
to Win
-125
+ Antonina Shevchenko
to Win
-138
ODDS:
+210
BET:
8u
RETURN:
24.83u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Gilbert Burns
to Win
+140
ODDS:
+140
BET:
6u
RETURN:
14.4u
BET #2
+ Augusto Sakai
to Win
-110
+ Tim Elliott
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+203
BET:
6u
RETURN:
18.19u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Vince Morales
to Win
-110
ODDS:
-110
BET:
5u
RETURN:
9.55u
BET #2
+ Spike Carlyle
to Win
+110
+ Gilbert Burns
to Win
+140
ODDS:
+404
BET:
5u
RETURN:
25.2u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Augusto Sakai
to Win by Decision
+200
ODDS:
+200
BET:
4u
RETURN:
12u
BET #2
+ Mackenzie Dern
to Win by Submission
-110
+ Jamahal Hill
to Win
-125
ODDS:
+244
BET:
4u
RETURN:
13.75u
BET #3
+ Casey Kenney
to Win inside the Distance
+385
ODDS:
+385
BET:
4u
RETURN:
19.4u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Jamahal Hill
to Win
-125
+ Antonina Shevchenko
to Win
-138
+ Spike Carlyle
to Win
+110
ODDS:
+552
BET:
10u
RETURN:
65.19u
Silver Plays
BET #2
+ Augusto Sakai
to Win
-110
+ Gilbert Burns
to Win
+140
+ Tim Elliott
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+628
BET:
8u
RETURN:
58.22u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Vince Morales
to Win
-110
+ Antonina Shevchenko
to Win
-138
+ Tim Elliott
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+423
BET:
6u
RETURN:
31.38u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Augusto Sakai
to Win by Decision
+200
+ Mackenzie Dern
to Win by Submission
-110
+ Daniel Rodriguez
to Win inside the Distance
-170
ODDS:
+810
BET:
5u
RETURN:
45.48u
BET #2
+ Jamahal Hill
to Win
-125
+ Augusto Sakai
to Win
-110
+ Vince Morales
to Win
-110
ODDS:
+556
BET:
5u
RETURN:
32.8u
BET #3
+ Gilbert Burns
to Win
+140
+ Spike Carlyle
to Win
+110
+ Casey Kenney
to Win Inside the Distance
+385
ODDS:
+2344
BET:
5u
RETURN:
122.22u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Gilbert Burns
$7400
+ Augusto Sakai
$8200
+ Spike Carlyle
$7600
+ Roosevelt Roberts
$9200
+ Makenzie Dern
$9300
+ Daniel Rodriguez
$7300
Spares
+ Casey Kenney
$9100
+ Vince Morales
$7900
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Tyron Woodley -170 vs Gilbert Burns +140
Woodley is in a tough spot here- facing a rising contender looking for his shot while at the same time he is attempting to muster the momentum to reclimb the ranks- post-title fight letdown.
Burns doesn’t have the wrestling to take him down, but he has the BJJ to not worry about getting taken down which is big.
Burns was sitting around +125 when he opened so we are getting some value here with 67% picking Woodley to win the fight.
Burns should be able to outwork Woodley early who will tire and be even less effective late.
Woodley needs a KO to win. I like these odds under that scenario.
Silver Play for Burns.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Burns is a finisher and over 5 rounds he should be able to land with regularity on Woodley (especially as he slows down).
Any time you can get a finisher for under $7500 you are off to a good start.
Add him.
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Blagoy Ivanov -110 vs Augusto Sakai -110
The split is pretty even with Sakai getting 53% of the voters on Tapology.
Sakai was sitting around +100 and some sites have him as high as -114 now, but that is still playable.
I think Sakai can outwork him, use his size to muscle him around, and be more active in the later stages of the fight.
Lewis isn’t as capable on the feet as Sakai and he still held his own and edge him out- Augusto will too.
Silver play for Sakai.
Prop Bet:
Augusto Sakai to Win by Decision +200
Sakai by decision is getting a 52% nod on tapology.
While he is a finisher and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a stoppage, Ivanov is tough and can take a lot of damage.
Decisions at HW are a risk, but this one offers a solid return.
DK Lineup:
Despite playing Sakai to go the distance, at $8200 he offers a lot to your fantasy lineup.
He could produce a 100+ striking total as he did in his debut.
Score an early finish or possibly a late stoppage- lots of options.
Add him.
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Spike Carlyle +110 vs Billy Quarantillo -138
This should be a barn burner and I really like the edge we have here.
Quarantillo looked great in his debut, but he did so against an overwhelmed short-notice opponent.
Carlyle is a stout wrestler and has great cardio- he should also have the power edge.
We have lost some of the initial value on Carlyle (+130), but I still he is a great play with Billy getting blown up by his debut.
Gold play for Spike.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Carlyle has stopping power and has finished 3 straight in the opening round.
At $7600 he is an easy add with lots of potential.
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Roosevelt Roberts -350 vs Brok Weaver +275
This is an easy pass. Roberts should win, but the line isn’t worth it.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Roberts can pile up takedowns and is always looking to lock up a submission.
Weaver is too vulnerable on the mat and can be put there with regularity.
Add him.
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Hannah Cifers +350 vs Mackenzie Dern -450
No Play here either.
Dern needs to prove herself and if she can’t take Cifers down she will struggle.
Pass.
Prop Bet:
Mackenzie Dern to Win by Submission -110
Cifers is vulnerable on the mat and can be taken down.
Dern will most likely look to get back to her bread and butter after a tough loss.
74% of Dern’s backers are taking her by sub, if you want to play this fight here is your option.
DK Lineup:
Dern makes the cut here.
She could either score multiple takedowns over a full 15-minutes or set up the sub.
I like her to finish.
Add her.
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Katlyn Chookagian +110 vs Antonina Shevchenko -138
The line has stayed pretty consistent which is indicative of the 53/47% split in favour of Chookagian.
She is coming off a title fight loss which is a big factor here.
It is also worth considering that AS will have the insight of her sister who just finished prepping for Chook.
Shevchenko’s clinch game is the key here against a fighter that likes to maintain distance.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Gabriel Green +275 vs Daniel Rodriguez -350
Rodriguez has gone from a short notice newcomer to a heavy favourite in just 2 fights.
With the late change, there is too much uncertainty with this line.
Pass.
Prop Bet:
Daniel Rodriguez to Win inside the Distance -170
Green has been finished twice in the opening round which is a good start here.
D-Rod hits hard and has a solid submission game.
He is also the larger man.
D-Rod gets the finish, keep all options open.
DK Lineup:
Rodriguez is still carrying the price from his matchup with Holland.
He will be heavily owned, but a finish is a legit possibility.
Add him.
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Klidson Abreu +100 vs Jamahal Hill -125
Hill getting a significant amount of support to the tune of 81%- not indicative of the near even odds.
Hill was around -175 so we are getting a solid bump in price here.
Abreu seems unwilling to make his BJJ his #1 focus which is a concern against a young/long/ talented fighter.
Abreu is tough and will keep moving forward, but Hill will damage him routinely with his speed and more varied offense.
Gold play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Tim Elliott -170 vs Brandon Royval +140
Elliott is a fun fighter, but that fun comes with risks.
Royval is dangerous and could capitalize on those risks.
That being said, Elliott is the far more experienced fighter and a sizeable step up for the new guy.
Royval struggled with Kenney and will struggle here, giving up position too often.
We are getting some value with Elliott improving from -180 and continuing to rise.
Silver play for Tim.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Casey Kenney -300 vs Louis Smolka +240
This should be an entertaining scrap, but worth betting Kenney SU.
I like Smolka enough to avoid taking Kenney at -300.
Pass.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
I have Kenney as a spare here.
He has a solid submission game and should be able to take down Smolka at will.
Work him in where needed.
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Chris Gutierrez -110 vs Vince Morales -110
Gutierrez was a slight favourite before the line started moving.
I like Morales to outwork a fighter that likes to sit back and counter.
I felt Morales should have got the nod over Lopez and this is a similar fight- he will learn from his mistakes.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
Morales hits hard and should find a willing partner in Gutierrez.
I would have considered him for the starting lineup, but Gutierrez is no easy out.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
Smolka can be finished and routinely puts himself in some bad spots. Kenney is the better wrestler and has the sub-skills to capitalize on Smolka’s recklessness on the mat. Don’t count out Kenney’s power either, he has enough pop to do some damage. The return is too solid to overlook.
2. Chris Gutierrez/Vince Morales
No play. Morales hits hard and could finish him, but Gutierrez is a tough out. I want the win SU anyway I can get it.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Antonina Shevchenko to Win by Decision +110[/T1]
Chookagian is a tough out and while she was finished in her last fight and Shev finished her last opponent I see this one going the distance. Chookagian will use her movement to try and stay out of danger while Shek lands more impactful offense and presses forward more frequently. Post-title letdown hurts Chook who is normally involved in a lot of close decisions.
Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36
16
20
44%
2016
39
26
13
67%
2017
34
25
9
74%
2018
33
22
11
67%
2019
38
23
15
61%
2020
19
11
8
58%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2016 Picks
35
17
18
49%
2017 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2018 Picks
31
13
18
42%
2019 Picks
30
9
21
30%
2020 Picks
10
4
6
40%
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HEF Candidate(s)
1. Blagoy Ivanov -110 vs Augusto Sakai -110
2. Spike Carlyle +110 vs Billy Quarantillo -138
3. Katlyn Chookagian +110 vs Antonina Shevchenko -138
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.