Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Post Fight Results, Review, & Bet Pack

Josh Harper

 What of the most exciting seasons of the Ultimate Fighter was followed up with a very eventful night of fights right from the opening bell to the final tapout. Urijah Faber retained his position in the division with an impressive performance against Scott Jorgensen, Kelvin Gastelum did what many felt was impossible when he shut down Uriah Hall in the finals of the tournament and Cat Zingano viciously dispatched of Miesha Tate to become the #1 contender. Kamikaze Overdrive continue its strong run with an 8-4 record and a very profitable bet pack that include multiple winning parlays, 4 of 5 Confidence picks hitting, 3 of 5 Value Picks, 5 winning prop bets, and big win with a bet on Kelvin Gastelum. Check out a recap of the nights fights and the bet pack posted below!

Facebook Prelims

145 lbs. – Sam Sicilia (1-1 UFC) vs. Maximo Blanco (0-1 UFC) – Blanco via U. decision

Both men traded bombs the entire fight and both were rocked on several occasions. The difference was Blanco’s pressure and ability to takedown Sicilia multiple times for the unanimous decision victory.

 

145 lbs. – Justin Lawrence (1-1 UFC) vs. Daniel Pineda (2-2 UFC) – Pineda via submission (round 1)

Pineda didn’t take long to get a takedown and immediately worked for a behind the back kimura which he secured early in the first round.

 

145 lbs. – Cole Miller (7-5 UFC) vs. Bart Palaszewski (1-2 UFC) – Miller via submission (round 1)

Miller stood with Palaszewski for some of the first round, but eventually got the takedown took his back and secured the rear naked choke at the end of the first round.

 

Fuel TV Prelims

 

185 lbs. – Clint Hester (0-0 UFC) vs. Bristol Marunde (0-0 UFC) – Hester via TKO (round 3)

Marunde decided he would stand and strike with Hester which was a horrible decision as he was battered with punches for 3 rounds until Hester finished him with a standing elbow in round 3.

 

185 lbs. – Dylan Andrews (0-0 UFC) vs. Jimmy Quinlan (0-0 UFC) – Andrews via TKO (round 1)

Quinlan tried hard to get the fight to the ground, but Andrews defended the takedowns very well and finished Quinlan with punches early in the first round.

 

185 lbs. – Luke Barnatt (0-0 UFC) vs. Collin Hart (0-0 UFC) – Barnett via U. decision

Hart and Barnatt showed off their striking and grappling skills, but neither had much cardio so this wasn’t the most exciting decision victory. Barnatt won this fight with striking and grappling defense.

 

185 lbs. – Josh Samman (0-0 UFC) vs. Kevin Casey (0-0 UFC) – Samman via TKO (round 2)

Casey had a very tight armbar/triangle early in the first round, but Samman used raw strength to escape. Casey was gassed by the second round and Samman took advantage by using knees and punches.

 

Main Card

 

185 lbs. – Bubba McDaniel (0-0 UFC) vs. Gilbert Smith (0-0 UFC) – McDaniel via submission (round 3)

Smith was able to get a few takedowns on Bubba, but McDaniel was in control for the almost the entire fight with his submissions and striking. McDaniel locked in a nice triangle/armbar late in the fight to win.

 

265 lbs. – Travis Browne (4-1-1 UFC) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (9-5 UFC) – Browne via TKO (round 1)

The fight quickly moved into the clinch against the cage and as Browne was sprawling a takedown attempt he was able to land powerful elbows to the head of Gonzaga for the finish.

 

135 lbs. – Miesha Tate (0-0 UFC) vs. Cat Zingano (0-0 UFC) – Zingano via TKO (round 3)

Tate was able to rock Zingano several times early as well as gain dominant positions on the ground, but Zingano was in the fight the whole time and turned it up in round 3 landing knees and elbows to win.

 

185 lbs. – Uriah Hall (0-0 UFC) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (0-0 UFC) – Gastelum via S. decision

Gastelum stole the show by taking out the top seed in the tournament with a fantastic grappling performance and not too shabby striking either. Hall had great moments in this fight as well though.

 

135 lbs. – Urijah Faber (3-2 UFC) vs. Scott Jorgensen (3-2 UFC) – Faber via submission (round 4)

Faber was too fast and technical for Jorgensen in this fight, as he won the striking with his knees and punches and also controlled the grappling game until he finished with a rear naked choke.

 

 

Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale


*I have started to use Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Faber by Submission $4.50
Selection 2: Gilbert Smith $2.55
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Price: $11.48
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Dylan Andrews $1.91
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Price: $3.53
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Collin Hart $2.15
Selection 2: Browne by KO/TKO/DQ $1.85
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Price: $3.98

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #4
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Gilbert Smith $2.55
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Price: $6.95

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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Clint Hester $1.61
Selection 2: Samman/Casey Under 2.5 $1.60
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $4.77

Parlay Double-Double

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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Zingano by Decision $2.10
Selection 2: Blanco/ Sicilia Under 2.5 $1.55
Selection 3: Dylan Andrews $1.91
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $9.57
 
 

A Puncher’s Chance

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Parlay #8- Why the Hell not?
===================================================
Selection 1: Zingano by Decision $2.10
Selection 2: Dylan Andrews $1.91
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Gilbert Smith $2.55
Selection 5: Browne by KO/TKO/DQ $1.85
Selection 6: Collin Hart $2.15
Selection 7: Dylan Andrews $1.91
===================================================
Price: $143.75


Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Maximo Blanco $1.37 vs Sam Sicilia $3.17

Blanco is anything but a sure bet, his performance in his debut was a huge letdown and complicating things further he hasn’t fought in a year. On the plus side his move to Jackson’s should help him in preparation for this fight. Both guys are explosive and (excluding Blanco’s last fight) are known for the aggressive styles. I am not that encouraged by these betting odds, even if Maxi’s value increases a little bit it is still a far cry from where I would consider him a worthwhile bet. Sicilia didn’t look out of place against a tough opponent in his Featherweight debut and if he tightens his striking and employs a jab to set up his power he could be a dangerous striker. There seems to be some many “what ifs” and “if this” scenarios that this becomes a hard fight to bet on. My instinct is to take a pass on Blanco as such a heavy favourite. That leaves maybe a small bet on Sicilia with him holding some value as a playable option or if the odd is post at your book take a look at the Total rounds Under 2.5. Sicilia has finishing power and has defensive holes in his game so big that you could drive a truck through them which could also lead to him getting finished.

Justin Lawrence $1.85 vs

Both guys started with a lot of hype- Lawrence on TUF and Pineda with a 2-0 start, but they have since cooled down. The odds are moving with Pineda taking the role of the favourite in the mid to high $1.70 area. I like Pineda’s experience and grit to play a big role here. Lawrence started off well against Holloway, but as soon as things started to get a little bit dicey he wasn’t nearly as effective and eventually was finished. Lawrence is touted as being well rounded and he is to a certain extent, but Pineda on the ground holds a marked advantage. Mike Brown was able to put him on his back several times, but some of the transitions and reversals that Daniel pulled off against such a strong wrestler were impressive. Pineda has power, but should try and exploit the talent gap on the ground while in the process taking Lawrence’s kicking game out of the equation. I like a bet on Pineda, a mid-range single bet, and he also has potential as part of your parlays. Another option to look at here is the under. Pineda is a finisher, never winning a fight by decision and Lawrence has shown that he can finish as well with his dangerous striking arsenal.

Cole Miller $2.56 vs

Two solid veterans that have fallen on some difficult times. Both have dropped back to back fights and desperation is going to play a major role in this fight. Of the two, Miller’s approach is far more suited for that desperate/ balls to the wall/ do anything for a win style. Bart is much more measured in his approach, which could work in his favour is Cole gets too reckless. Miller hasn’t impressed me since cutting to 145. Steven Siler bullied him during large portions of that fight and Nam Phan had a lot of success with his striking despite dealing with some significant physical disadvantages against Cole. Both guys give out and take a lot of damage which should result in this fight being an exhausting affair, which again favours Bartimus. Cole looks much more fragile at 145 and Palaszweski’s power (17 wins by knockout) could take its toll. Playing Bart straight up here is the way to go, the higher his price gets the more enticing he becomes, but really anything over $1.45 works on a parlay for me. For Miller, his striking is serviceable but not something I would trust to win a fight with, and unless he can get this fight to the ground, which he hasn’t had a lot of success doing in the past, his grappling skills won’t play a huge role.

Josh Samman $1.27 vs Kevin Casey $3.88

For lack of a better way of looking at this fight I think it is being set up as a squash match. Samman is young and talented, Casey is older, one-dimensional, and is coming off of a poor final TUF performance that goes against everything Dana believes in as far as TUF determining if a competitor actually wants to be a fighter or not. If Casey can get on top of Josh then he might have a shot, but even then he needs to finish him. His cardio/ heart are major question marks and handling the much bigger and more athletic opponent will take its toll on ‘King’. Samman’s grappling, especially defensively, needs work and that is something he quite possibly could have addressed since the show. We will find that out together. The one thing we do know about Samman is that he has tools and is the type of fighter that is still developing and getting better, Casey is not. Samman doesn’t offer a whole lot but I still intend to use him on the parlays because I am confident that he takes this one. I will also shop around to see what the Over/Under option is on this fight. There is a good chance it comes in at 1.5 rounds, which is still a playable option at the right price, but I would feel a little more comfortable having that extra round to hit the under.

Collin Hart $2.15 vs Luke Barnatt $1.69

Grappler vs Striker, with the odds favouring the striker here. I was a little surprised to see that Hart was the dog. He has some decent experience having fought for Tachi Palace Fights and is grappling looked pretty good on the show. Barnatt has power and his knees are dangerous which certainly is a legit concern for a fighter that will be frequently shooting face first into that danger zone. If Barnatt was a little more mobile or a little less awkward when he is throwing his strikes then I would tend to side with him, but it just seems like Hart will have a tonne of opportunities to score takedowns. Barnatt couldn’t keep Gilbert Smith off of him until he slowed down significantly and Andrews defeated Luke based on his grappling advantage. TUF fighter predictions can be difficult considering the time that has passed since we last saw these guys compete, but of the two I think that Hart as the greater potential for improvement and already has the skills to win this fight in place. I would suggest a taking a shot with a single bet on Hart and consider working him into a parlay or two.

Dylan Andrews $1.91 vs Jimmy Quinlan $1.77

I went back and forth on this fight and the odds reflect how close this one could be. Quinlan is a strong grappler and has had success with this aspect of his game. He keeps thing simple and they seem to work. Unfortunately, when he gets in a position where he is forced to deviate from his plan it can make things difficult. He showed two sides on the show; he gutted out his first round win against Hester that went anything as planned and then against Samman after getting off to a solid start he folded up shop at the first sign of trouble. Andrews has a more well rounded game and he has experience on his side with more fights and against better competition. He should decent takedown defence in his fights and was effective as punishing Zak Cumming when he shot in. If Quinlan can’t get things moving in the right direction keep them heading in that direction then we could see him fold up again. Andrews was undervalued on the show because of being picked last overall, but he certainly proved many wrong. With the exception of his last fight against Hall he had a great tournament run and should be able to continue it here. I think that Dylan is a decent inclusion on a parlay, but if you can wait until fight day we might see him get over the $2.00 mark. Quinlan has fought just 3 times professionally, and despite his other combat sport experience, it is hard to back a guy at this level with so little to draw from.

Clint Hester $1.61 vs

This going to be an interesting fight. Hester has the tools to be dangerous as he is an above average striker, but with enough wrestling to potentially fend off the grappling of his opponent. On the show he did a good enough job of getting back up after being taken down that he was able to do some serious damage to his opponent. Unfortunately we saw the other end of the spectrum in round 2 when he got submitted. If Marunde can put Hester on his back with regularity he could either pick up a submission or grind out a decision. That scenario has potential and almost got me to take Marunde, but I just haven’t see enough of a skilled grappling game out of him to think he can do this to Hester. Hester around the $1.55-$1.65 mark is worth inclusion on your parlays, but be a little conservative here as the grappling issues (2 pro losses by sub and 1 on TUF) could show up and cost Clint Hester and you.

Gilbert Smith $2.55 vs Bubba McDaniel $1.54

I just don’t understand where all of the love of Bubba is coming from. Yes he has a more filled out resume then most of his opponent’s but his performance on the show was nothing to write home about. I know we could point out the experience/ level of competition issue favouring Bubba here but Smith brings the type of skill set that has traditionally given McDaniel troubles. He has multiple submission losses and his fights on the show proved that although he is quite capable of winning a fight on the ground, he is also quite vulnerable when the fighters go horizontal. Smith’s cardio is a concern as he badly gassed out against Barnatt, but we have to consider the environment he was living in heading into that fight as the TUF house may impact some fighter’s ability to perform at their top level. Either way, I think the play here is Smith he has some sold value here at anything over $2.15 and is worth a small single bet. I say small because I also intend to use him on a parlay or two. For Bubba, he seems like the type of fighter that isn’t going to develop beyond where he is at now and although he comes from a decent camp I still think he is in tough here.

Travis Browne $1.40 vs

Browne’s striking technique leaves a lot to be desired and I was really pissed off when he blew out his knee against Bigfoot as it tainted the upset that I had predicted. For this fight I actually see the opposite as Browne’s striking style will aid him in winning this fight. Gonzaga needs to get Browne to the ground and work his BJJ, but Browne is a big HW and his above average speed and movement (for a 265er) will make it tough for Gabe to get in on a takedown and then complete it. I won’t be surprised if we see Hapa on his back once or even twice, but the size and strength of the big man will take a lot out of Gabe every time he shoots. Gonzaga’s striking is serviceable, but in support to his grappling. If he is forced to rely solely on his stand-up to beat Browne he is going to be in tough. Browne has power and the ability to finish and Gonzaga has had a very spotty history in striking based battles against good Heavyweights. A win is a win, but I thought Gabe benefited in his last fight from facing a depleted opponent, that wont be the case here. Browne should be a bet you are using with regularity on your parlays, he doesn’t offer a lot as far as single bet is concerned unless you take a prop bet with Browne winning by KO/TKO which is also a considerable option.

Miesha Tate $1.91 vs

The odds on this fight are disappointing to say the least. I was hoping that Tate being a former champion with her only two losses coming against former champ Kaufmann and current champ Rousey would make her the favourite here. Not the case. Zingano is a good fighter, but she is relatively untested against top end talent. On the other side of things, Tate took a beating against Julie Kedzie and I really question her desire to compete after some of the things she said in the media. Yes she has talked about being fired up now that she is in the UFC, but getting her arm badly damaged by the Champ can really deter a fighter from wanting to climb the ladder again. Zingano is hungry and looking for her shot at the title and prior to that getting some major exposure on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter. There is a lot on the line here and that will put some added pressure on both fighters. In the end I would like Zingano to pay a little bit better and if you are betting on her wait until fight day as Tate’s name recognition will most likely draw some money which will in turn drag this fight closer to even. A parlay bet on Cat is probably the best way to use her, but the price on her head could be improved if you play her to win by decision. She is a grinder and I don’t expect to see her finish Tate and this logic also brings the Over 2.5 rounds into play which is worth a look.

Uriah Hall $1.21 vs

The odds are moving on this one and Gastelum value is still high but it is moving down. My original pick in this fight was Hall, but that was before the semi-finals and Kelvin just continues to impress. I think the best way to play this bout is to take a shot with the underdog. Hall has looked impressive, but if you go back to his Elimination bout it went to decision and was a pretty close contest. Gastelum is very raw, but he has been getting the job done and his aggressive style could prove to be the best counter for the more balanced and calculated striking attack of Uriah. Hall doesn’t offer a lot as the fav with the best price I have seen so far hitting a $1.30. My play here is a single bet on Gastelum based on value and then to just sit back and enjoy this fight.

Urijah Faber $1.25 vs

I am going to keep this one pretty short as well. Jorgensen has had great success until he makes the step up in competition against the likes of Cruz, Barao, and Wineland and Faber fits that category of elite level fighter. For Faber, he has been running the table in fights when the title is not on the line (fighting Championship level opponents) beating solid level opponents like Assunacao, Menjivar, and Bowles- Jorgensen falls in here. So unless Urijah has a major drop off in performance or Scotty rises to the occasion of the second biggest fight of his career, Faber should win this. For betting purposes he doesn’t offer much, but I will still use him in parlay or two. The other option is to consider Faber by submission. Faber has submitted a number of top level opponents and Jorgensen was having some trouble with John Albert’s submission game. Faber will look to make a statement to ensure he holds his position in the division and finishing a tough guy like Scotty would go a long way to doing that. I haven’t seen the price on Faber by sub, but I think it will pay in the $4.50 to $5.50 range which is worth a single bet.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Urijah Faber $1.25

2. Travis Browne $1.40

3. Josh Samman $1.27

4.

5. Dylan Andrews $1.91

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6.

7.

8. Uriah Hall $1.21

9. Gilbert Smith $2.55

10. Collin Hart $2.15

11. Clint Hester $1.61

12. Maximo Blanco $1.37

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Gilbert Smith $2.55 Bubba was aided on the show by his relationship with Coach Jones, that won’t be the case here against a very strong wrester- something he has had problems with both throughout his career and on the show.
2. Collin Hart $2.15 I like Hart’s grappling to carry the day against Barnatt who hasn’t had a lot of experience facing American based grapplers.
3. Dylan Andrews $1.91 Andrews mad a name for himself on the show, but still needs a big win here to get a spot with the company. Some sites have him as the dog and some at it at even. A more well-rounded skill set and greater experience will be the difference.
4. $1.85 Both guys are coming off tough defeats, but it is Pineda has that has the experience in these tough rebound fights. He also has more experience and his ground game should be the clinching factor.
5. $1.77 I was really hoping that this number would be higher, but hey we will work with what we have.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $4.25 I get the comparisons to Cain Velasquez, but this will be his biggest test to date. If he can use his aggression to negate his the distance that Uriah likes to fight from I think he can win this fight.
2. Sam Sicilia $3.17 Sam is an aggressive fighter and if Blanco is even a little bit tentative then Sam’s aggression could carry the flow of the fight and earn points with the judges. Blanco is too heavy of a favourite coming off his last performance to be considered such a heavy fav.
3. $2.36 This pick is a distant third and I won’t be playing it, but I do feel that Marunde has a chance to win this fight if Hester can’t keep this fight standing.
4. No Play
5. No Play

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

Kevin Casey/ Josh Samman Total Rounds Under 2.5- Samman is a finisher and Casey is going to struggle to deal with his power and aggression. Even if this fight gets out of the first round I expect to see Casey slowing down and eventually succumbing to Samman in some fashion or another. Play the Under.

Travis Browne to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- The odds aren’t posted yet, but I would expect it will be somewhere around the $2.00 mark, maybe slightly below. Gabe has been knocked out 5 times in his career and Browne has the power and capability to make it a sixth.

Travis Browne/ Gabriel Gonzaga Total Rounds Under 1.5- This play follows the same line of thought and if Gabe is able to get on top of Browne and work his Jits then he could bring about the finish and you are still a winner with this play.

Sam Sicilia/ Maximo Blanco Total Rounds Under 2.5- Both fighters are known for their fast starts and that could lead to the early finish if one is able to land cleanly. They have combined to have 15 fights end inside the first round, play the odds.

Justin Lawrence/ Daniel Pineda Total Rounds Under 2.5- All of Pineda’s wins have come by some form of finish and Lawrence showed against Cofer that he is capable of ending a fight with one strike.

Cat Zingano to Win by Decision- Tate is a tough customer and while Zingano does have 6 finish is 7 wins I expect this to be a competitive fight with Cat using her grappling both along the cage and on the mat to grind out a decision win.

Urijah Faber to Win by Submission- Faber paid well to submit Menjivar (your welcome) and he has a list of guys where he is their only submission defeat. He needs an impressive win to continue to hold his position until Cruz gets back with the company, which could set up a title shot if he can beat Barao. Jorgensen did have some trouble with Albert on the ground and if Faber gets the position he is a finisher.