UFN 95: Cyborg vs Lansberg- ”Brazilian Brutality”

I wrote this...

UFC Fight Night 95 played host to another destruction at the hands of Cris Cyborg, the most dominant woman in MMA. It might have taken her a little longer than expected, but the fight was hers from start to finish. My record was absolute garbage with upset picks not cashing and other favourites not coming through. The locals went 8-3 against non-locals and both Brazil versus Brazil matchups were won by the underdog. There was good, there was bad, and there was ugly. Let’s take a look.

The Good…
  • The law of averages suggests that Jussier Formiga will eventually get a shot at the Flyweight title. He put together another solid performance to hold his spot at the top of the division and is the highest ranked fighter not to get a shot at the gold.
  • After three consecutive decisions to end the prelims, Godofredo Pepey and Mike De La Torre put on a show in just over 3-minutes of action. Pepey picked up the finish, but both men should take home the FOTN bonus. (They didn’t which was a travesty) I’d really like to see Pepey take on Chas Skelly next.
  • Over the first eight fights of the night, Brazilians accounted for 7 wins and Eric Spicely recognized that his job was on the line in hostile territory. He was a massive underdog against a violent knockout artist, but he came out and executed his gameplan to perfection to grab the submission win over a top 15 ranked opponent.
  • Dominick Cruz did a fantastic job on the mic. His technical breakdown of each fight was so in-depth that it was hard to listen to when my fighter was on the receiving end of the action. Still quite enjoyable.
  • In need of a win to gain a foothold in his new division, Renan Barao picked up a decent victory over Phillipe Nover. At the same time, it wasn’t a world beating performance that will have fans clamouring to see Renan fighting at the top of the division. Look for Barao to be brought along slowly as he tries to re-establish himself as a title contender.
  • The beating was bad, her opponent’s face was uglier- but Cris Cyborg put together another dominant performance to improve to 2-0 in the UFC. Lina Lansberg hung in longer than expect, but eventually crumbled under the onslaught. The big question now, is where does Cyborg go from here? The UFC will certainly be looking to book her for another big fight, but who is going to be willing to step up and face her. I think Germaine De Randamie would be a suitable opponent if the fight remained standing, but Cris showed tonight that she can take the fight to the floor if needed. The line is short, but someone will offer to take their shot at the Brazilian basher eventually.
The Bad…
  • It certainly wasn’t pretty, but it was a win. Alan Patrick benefited from a lack of desperation on his opponent’s part to get off his back and the unwillingness of the referee to stand him up in front of the home crowd. Patrick is also becoming notorious for holding non-existent sub attempts to kill the clock.
  • With just a single loss in his last 9 fights, Rani Yahya still can’t get any respect. His style might not be the most fan-friendly, but it is a shame that the UFC continues to keep him away from a Top 15 ranked opponent- waiting for him to eventually slip up.
  • In any other division, a 7-fight winning streak inside the Octagon has you in line for a title shot or at the very least a spot in upper echelon of the division. Unfortunately for Francisco Trinaldo he fights in the deepest division in the promotion and isn’t even ranked in the top 15. Defeating and stopping Paul Felder should be good enough to earn a shot at a ranked opponent. How about Trinaldo versus Evan Dunham. That cut was nasty.
and The Ugly
  • Hector Urbina’s knockout loss was the sixth of his career, which is a lot for a 29-year-old fighter. Vicente Luque looked great in finishing him and was one of the few early favourites to avoid getting upset.
  • It was a war, but Erick Silva got his first UFC win outside of the opening round simply because his opponent gassed harder then he did. Silva got knocked down twice and could have been behind on the scorecards before falling into a submission win.
  • It appeared that Antonio Silva had once again found his chin, eating some big shots early from Roy Nelson, but eventually his luck ran out. Nelson landed a big uppercut that eventually lead to the stoppage. “Big Country” took issue with “Big” John McCarthy’s requirement of a few extra strikes before he elected to stop the fight. I appreciated the boot to McCarthy’s backside.With another devastating knockout loss, “Bigfoot” appears long overdue to walk away from the Octagon.
Final Thoughts

Ending the prelims with a 1-6 record only to finish 6-7 on this card is far from even a moral victory considering the squash matches that filled the prelims. There were 5 big upsets on this card, which made for some hard handicapping, but that doesn’t justify such a poor start. It appears that this was one of those cards where unconditionally backing the Brazilian fighters (minus Bigfoot) was probably the way to finish with a positive record. The UFC’s next festival of violence goes down next weekend in Portland. The main card has lost a couple of key fighters, but the main event is going to be awesome.

Parlay Header

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Francisco Trinaldo -121 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Gilbert Burns -164  
Selection 3: Stevie Ray -150 
Selection 4: Roy Nelson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -245 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Price: +590 Bet: 10 units
Payout: 59 units
 
 
===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Godofredo Pepey -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Michinori Tanaka +120 
Selection 3: Luan Chagas -140 
Selection 4: Cris Cyborg to Win by TKO/KO in Round 1 -235
===================================================
Price: +836  x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 66.87 units
 
 
===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Dustin Ortiz +175  
Selection 2: Glaico Franca -122 
Selection 3: Godofredo Pepey/Mike De La Torre Total Rounds Under 1.5 -122 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Gilbert Burns to Win by Decision +175 
===================================================
Price: +2404  x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 144.25 units
 
===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Renan Barao to Win by Decision +160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Erick Silva/Luan Chagas Total Rounds Under 1.5 +135 
Selection 3: Michinori Tanaka +120 
===================================================
Price: +1244  x Bet: 7 units 
Payout: 87.09 units
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Hector Urbina/Vicente Luque Total Rounds Under 1.5 +125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Gilbert Burns -164 
Selection 3: Godofredo Pepey -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Eric Spicely/Thiago Santos Total Rounds Under 1.5 -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 5: Dustin Ortiz +175  
===================================================
Price: +2523  x Bet: 6 units 
Payout: 151.38 units

 

Draftkings Line up

===================================================
Kamikaze
===================================================
Fighter 1: Godofredo Pepey $10500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Gilbert Burns $9800 
Fighter 3: Vicente Luque $10800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Luan Chagas $8800 
Fighter 5: Michinori Tanaka $10100 
===================================================
Salary Remaining:
 
===================================================
Overdrive
===================================================
Fighter 1: Gilbert Burns $9800 
Fighter 2: Vicente Luque $10800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Luan Chagas $8800 
Fighter 4: Michinori Tanaka $10100 
Fighter 5: Glaico Franca $10400 
===================================================
Salary Remaining: 
 
===================================================
All-Brazil
===================================================
Fighter 1: Godofredo Pepey $10500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Vicente Luque $10800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med 
Fighter 3: Luan Chagas $8800 
Fighter 4: Glaico Franca $10400 
Fighter 5: Jussier Formiga $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Salary Remaining: 
 

 

Cris Cyborg -1100 vs Lina Lansberg +917 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Clearly this is a no play. No real explanation needed. The password for this pack says it all. Clearly we can look at a prop bet to see if this fight is playable, by a side bet is untouchable. Oh that weightcut!

Draft-Kings-Logo

While I expect a first round stoppage, the price on Cris is just so crippling. I can’t justify the play.

 

Phillipe Nover +389 vs Renan Barao -400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

You might get tired of reading this, but – NO PLAY! Barao needs to show me he can win at 145 in the UFC before I would consider playing him at even half this price. He started strong against Stephens, but falter and while Nover appears to be a perfect opponent- it is simply not worth it. No real shocking insight here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here as well. He is too expensive. Renan might not be able to pick up the finish here and his volume/ takedown game isn’t going to score us a tonne for the price. Pass.

 

Antonio Silva +375 vs Roy Nelson -400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both guys have looked pretty bad in recent performances, but Bigfoot has looked worse over a longer time period. His chin is gone and the only thing that is going to prevent Big Country from jacking his jaw is if Roy opts to try and wrestle him for 3 rounds. I don’t know why he would do that, but at -400 or worse on some sites is a- say it with me: “NO PLAY!” We’ll look at a prop bet as the best betting option here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

A finish is probably going to happen, but he is still pretty pricey. I have a plan for my DK lineups, but it doesn’t involve any of the big price tag fighters on the card.

Francisco Trinaldo -121 vs Paul Felder +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

What is this? A fight we can actually breakdown and bet on? What fun! What this fight comes down to is whether or not Felder can either stop Trinaldo or do enough to earn a decision. In this case, enough equates to pure dominance. Trinaldo is 7-1 in the UFC when fighting in Brazil, with his only loss coming via submission. Felder has dropped a pair of decisions in the US against fighters from the UK and Brazil where he was the favourite. The American has trouble beating opponents in on the scorecards. He took a split decision against Saggo and won on the cards against Burkman in a fight that was anything but a runaway. I also feel he was behind against Cruickshank. He tends to let his opponents dictate the pace and Trinaldo has vastly improved his ability to pressure, attack, and not slow down over 3-rounds. I think he does that here, might even score some takedowns, and picks up the decision win as a result. Watch for Felder to struggle under the pressure of fighting in Brazil- both his past Fight IQ issues and tendency to get emotional in fights will work against him here. I have Trinaldo in my Gold Parlay.

Draft-Kings-Logo

My original plan was to use Francisco in my DK lineup on team Kamikaze. He has some decent volume, maybe a few takedowns, but I don’t see him stopping Felder. Honestly, I don’t expect this to be a big output fight, with the winner scoring somewhere around 50-65 points under most scenarios. I’ve decided that this is the type of card where playing 2 unique lineups isn’t the best plan of action. Instead, I will offer a couple of variations on the same lineup. More on that later. Better finishing/ scoring potential elsewhere. Pass.

Eric Spicely +501 vs Thiago Santos -550 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Oh, back to more of the same here- No Play. There is a prop to be had here, or at least looked at. But everything else is untouchable, especially if Spicely can get this fight to the mat in a good position.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nope, Santos will probably pick up the stoppage here, but I’m going to pass here. He doesn’t fit my plan.

Godofredo Pepey -135 vs Mike De La Torre +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Pepey here, but he is certainly vulnerable. The line did open up with Pepey as the dog, which was great, but we’ll roll with what we have. Arguably, the best option here is to play this fight under, but more on that later.  DLT has defensive grappling issues- he has 3 official submission losses in addition to his NC vs Ortega that was originally an RNC loss. Pepey is incredibly dangerous on the mat and can come up with a submission out of nowhere. DLT willingly will engage an opponent in all areas and that will get him in trouble. Additionally, DLT has trouble creating separation and if Pepey can get his hands on him, he will have plenty of opportunities to jump a submission. The aggression of DLT could lead to a stoppage or pulling away from a fighter not known for winning longer fights. I like Pepey to catch him off his back or in a scramble for the submission win. Don’t rule out a stoppage on the feet, but the submission is the most likely scenario. Silver play here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pepey is a great DK option here. He goes for the finish and he goes for it from the locker room. DLT can be stopped on the mat and he can be stopped on the feet. Between Pepey’s heavy finishing totals- all wins in the UFC by stoppage and DLT’s previous history with getting finished- Pepey is a must have. At $10500, he is a bargain compared to the other big stoppers on the card. I like Pepey on Team Kamikaze, but he is the one change I will be making to my lineup for Team Overdrive. If this fight goes beyond round 1, Pepey’s short notice and history of short fights could catch up with him and his point scoring potential will drop off the table. I like Pepey to win here and he will be apart of 2 of my 3 lineups, but he will serve as one of the rotations fighters and be left off of Team Overdrive.

Gilbert Burns -164 vs Michel Prazeres +158 

Burns is a flawed fighter, but his grappling skills are elite level. He tends to make bad decisions which can get him in trouble and if he can’t take his opponent down with regularity or at least once- he isn’t nearly as effective. That being said, Prazeres has had similar issues and is far from a world beater on the feet. Both fighters that gave Burns the most trouble, Oliveira and Magomedov, were far better strikers than what Prazeres represents with. I like the length and more diversified striking of Burns to carry the fight on the feet. Just as importantly, Prazeres will slow down and even if Burns has a bit of a drop off it won’t be as significant. Burns is the better grappler and the more effective striker. Prazeres has had issues with guys that have looked for takedowns and Burns will find increasing success taking him down as the fight advances. Prazeres should be good enough to avoid the submission, but he will drop a decision here. Burns is in my Gold Parlay.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Burns on 2 of my 3 DK lineups. I know I just said he might win by decision, but he shown he can finish and if Prazeres tires out that submission could materialize. Look for Burns to score 3-4 takedowns over a 3 round fight and land a decent, but not overwhelming volume on the feet. The combination of price and finishing potential makes him a valid addition to your lineup. I had him around $10200, so I feel we are saving a few bucks to spend elsewhere. On this card, that is huge.

Michinori Tanaka +120 vs Rani Yahya -129 

This should be a fun fight full of scrambles and back and forths on the mat. Yahya is a talented ground fighter and I am 7-1 predicting his fights, including 4 upset picks. So I have a good handle on what he brings to the cage. He is a clear specialist that wins his fights on the strengths of his ground game- nothing else. The ultimate determiner of his success is his cardio. He gasses and when he gasses, it’s hard. Hopefully, for him and what is the case in most fights, he gets a pair of rounds in the books to win 29-28 on the cards. Tanaka is a strong grappler in his own right and is a very good scrambler. He is going to force Yahya to work hard both getting the fight to the ground and keeping it there. He should also have an advantage on the feet. His more structure style of striking will help him limited the chance and Yahya has to take the fight to the mat. Look for Rani to start to slow down after round 1 and at that point, he will start to pull guard or just fail on his shot altogether. Once that happens, Tanaka should be in complete control and taka a pair of rounds to take the decision. Don’t be shocked if Yahya struggles to get the fight to the mat in the opening round and is chasing the fight from start to finish. On top of all that, we are looking at another Betting Dog who is the Fantasy favourite. That is a trend we are going to ride until it stops hitting. Last week it was Jose Quinonez and we have seen several other scenarios like this hit. Tanaka is a decent DK favourite which further cements my play here. Silver play!

Draft-Kings-Logo

I’ve got Tanaka on both Team Kamikaze and Overdrive. If Yahya gasses hard enough we could see a stoppage or at the very least a decent number of takedowns and striking volume piling up. Tanaka hasn’t shown significant finishing skills in the UFC, but at this price, he is a solid play. BTW there are 5 Fantasy Favs over $11000, yikes.

Dustin Ortiz +175 vs Jussier Formiga -186 

This is another fight that has a heavy dog as a decent Fantasy favourite. A lot of people are pointing to Ortiz/Reis and Formiga/Reis for an easy justification for backing Formiga. I get it for sure, but I’m not 100% on the same wavelength. Formiga isn’t a big takedown fighter. He is more reliant on creating scrambles and working to a better position. Ortiz is a pretty decent wrestler and a capable scrambler. I expect to see him come out and shut down the early grappling attempts of Formiga and make him work hard if they do hit the mat. I like the cardio and pace of Ortiz to kick in on the feet. He will land the better strikes and get the better of the exchanges. I’ve already mentioned it, but it is hard to overlook the Fantasy Favourite trend (sounds like a good name). Still a tough fight for Ortiz, Bronze Parlay.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No Play here on Ortiz, but I will take a shot on Formiga for my bonus team. He fits into my 5th spot in the lineup as the best available option based on my budget for my all Brazilian team.

Erick Silva +125 vs Luan Chagas -140 

This line has taken a massive swing, with Chagas opening as the dog and then dropping like a rock. This is the first time in the UFC career of Silva that he isn’t the favourtie in a fight. I guess technically he opened as the fav, but that isn’t the point. He has yet to beat anyone in the UFC in a fight to last beyond the first round and he has exactly zero wins over currently rostered fighters. Silva physically looks like he is done and without his physical attributes, he struggles to make up for his technical/mental shortcomings. Chagas hits hard and is a very good grappler. That should put him in a position to crack the chin of Silva or survive on the mat if they do hit the ground until the second frame with Indio becomes far less effective. There is a bigger window of opportunity for Luan to win this fight, I liked the plus odds, but I will take him here- Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Chagas gets the call on all of my Fantasy teams. At $8800, his value reflects the opening line that has drastically turned. Chagas has big finishing numbers and Silva can be finished. The majority of players who aren’t up on the lower third of the roster will look at Chagas and Silva and make the play on the more known commodity who has a long history of stopping guys- I like Chagas here.

Alan Patrick +155 vs Stevie Ray -150 

Patrick seems like the prototypical Brazilian fighter who will put up an ugly effort at home, but somehow get the nod. That scenario is scary. I don’t think that will be the case here as Ray has the power to prevent the judges’ involvement. Ray’s got solid counter striking and that should pop holes in the wild and aggressive striking routine of his opponent. His TDD isn’t perfect but I’m not too high on Patrick’s wrestling. Harlem Heat for the Win! Ray joins Trinaldo and Burns in the Gold parlay.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No play.

Hector Urbina +379 vs Vicente Luque -445 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I have Luque winning this fight start to finish. Urbina is probably on his last legs here and hasn’t looked good, even in his victory. No play based on the line, unless I opt to include him in my Gold Parlay simply because I feel he takes this fight with ease and adds a little pop. I feel Vicente should be close to -550 in this fight. Similar play to Dunham from a week ago.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Luque is going to make the cut on all 3 of my teams. Urbina is very hittable and can be knocked out and his TDD and submission defense are much better, if not worse. Luque can finish him in either spot or pile up some big points from his combined offensive output. At $10800, he is the most expensive fighter I am willing to invest in.

Glaico Franca -122 vs Gregor Gillespie +110 

Gillespie is getting a lot of love as the dog here. He is an elite wrestler, not just an NCAA D1 competitor, but a champion. He had dominated everyone he faced leading up to his finally pre-UFC fight. After a run of first round smoke shows, he won a split decision where his wrestling heavy attack didn’t look nearly as effective spread out over 3-rounds. He also had issues with his opponent routinely out-positioning him on the floor. Franca is a decent ground fighter in his own right and is pretty durable. With this fight taking place in Brazil, that adds more pressure on Gillespie. If he can’t get this fight done in the opening round I expect to see a drop-off in performance. Franca isn’t a cardio machine either, but I think he has more to offer in a longer fight. Opening fight of the night, Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Franca has some pretty solid finishing numbers and Gillespie is taking a sizeable step up in competition which can be an issue and the moment can overwhelm a young fighter in a place like Brazil. On the region scene, the mistake he made on the ground didn’t cost him. They will here. I’ve got Franca on Team Overdrive and my All-Brazilian squad.

 

1. Cris Cyborg -1100 (shocking) 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Vicente Luque -445 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Roy Nelson -400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Thiago Santos -550 

5. Renan Barao -400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

====================

6. Gilbert Burns -164

7. Francisco Trinaldo -121 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Godofredo Pepey -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Stevie Ray -150 

10. Luan Chagas -140 

11. Michinori Tanaka +120 

12. Glaico Franca -122 

13. Dustin Ortiz +175 

1. Michinori Tanaka +120 

2. Dustin Ortiz +175 

3. Francisco Trinaldo -121 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Godofredo Pepey -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Gilbert Burns -164 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

 

Cris Cyborg to Win by TKO/KO in Round 1 -235 

This is pretty much the best odds you can get for this fight. Cyborg has finished 4-straight bouts in the opening round via knockout and 6 of her last 7. Let’s hope that Lansberg doesn’t tap to strikes. Everything changes once Cyborg lands. Leave the stools at home.

Renan Barao to Win by Decision +160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Barao has 12 decisions on his record, but nothing since 2012 in his first fight with Faber. I’m not convinced that his power will translate against bigger men at 145 and Nover has been knocked out just once in his career. Nover is also pretty decent on the mat and should be able to survive on the floor. I would expect to see Renan looking to be more efficient with his energy after slowing down against Stephens. While a finish could happen, I like the plus money on a decision win against a guy that is 5-5 on the cards.

Roy Nelson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -245 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nelson by decision at +950 is so darn tempting, but unlikely. I looked at the Under 1.5, but considering we are getting almost the same line and have the entire fight for Roy to knock Bigfoot out- this is the play to make. Bigfoot came out looking for TDs early against Struve and Nelson has shown a willingness to grapple in recent fights, so a clinch and ground heavy opening round could threaten the Under. One of the best chins in the division versus one of the worst. Take Big Country to get back on track.

Eric Spicely/Thiago Santos Total Rounds Under 1.5 -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Spicely is a willing combatant, but I feel he is simply outgunned here on the feet in the worst way. Fighting in Brazil against a guy who can hurt you both at distance or in the clinch doesn’t leave a lot of options on the table for Spicely. Santos should be able to tag him at some point in round 1 and hurt him bad. Keep in mind, Spicely’s TUF loss was a 47-second knockout. The American does have a solid record of stopping fighters as well, with 6 opening round stoppages. Those numbers are worth mentioning, but were on Santos here for the stoppage.

Godofredo Pepey/Mike De La Torre Total Rounds Under 1.5 -122 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Pepey has been a part of 12 first round finishes. Not to be outdone, De La Torre has 13 round one and dones on his record. Both guys can finish and both can be finished and they aren’t the type that will want to feel it out early. We are looking for some value on this card and this prop bet has it is spades.

Gilbert Burns/Michel Prazeres 

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

Erick Silva/Luan Chagas Total Rounds Under 1.5 +135 

When Silva wins he does it in brilliant opening round fashion with 11 opening round stoppages. Conversely, he has now been stopped in 3 of his last 4 defeats- all in devastating fashion. Chagas has 14 wins by stoppage and exactly zero wins anyway else. In fact, his last fight was the first time he has required the judges in is career. Luan has 13-wins that hit the Under 1.5 mark, so he knows how to get it done in timely fashion. Play the Under here at plus money.

Hector Urbina/Vicente Luque 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

Glaico Franca/Gregor Gillespie 

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White