UFN 94: Poirier vs Johnson- ‘What a Menace!’
With seven finishes, three in the opening round- there was lots to like during the UFC’s latest visit to the Lone Star State. Michael Johnson reestablished himself as a legit title contender, Derek Brunson further proved that he belongs in the upper echelon of the Middleweight division, and Chas Skelly fought like he had somewhere else to be. Let’s take a look at my top 5 winners and losers.Winners Michael Johnson
Johnson had made a significant run up the ranks, but after back to back losses he needed this win badly. His striking looked quick and powerful, and while he is not known as a massive knockout threat- this performance will go a long way to changing that.Taking out a streaking fighter like Poirier in such definitive fashion is impressive and will set him up for a potential title eliminator. Emotions got the better of him at the end of the fight, but that can happen.Derek Brunson
With his fourth straight opening round knockout, it is hard to deny that Brunson isn’t deserving of a shot at the division’s elite. I’m not ready to let him fight for the title yet, but he distancing himself from the majority of the division. With a pair of losses to Jacare (much earlier in his career) and Romero, he is 0-2 against the fighters ranked above him. I believe a fight with the likes of Tim Kennedy or Lyoto Machida would offer a nice bridge to the upper echelon at 185 pounds.Evan Dunham
This was a high risk/ lower reward fight. Glenn is no slouch and while Dunham was never really in any serious trouble, it was still demanding fight for Dunham. He will hold his spot in the top 15 and could earn himself a shot at an opponent ranked above him or a redo with Trujillo. I personally feel a fight with either Gilbert Melendez or Al Iaquinta would be an optimal next outing.Chas Skelly
Grabbing a record for the fastest submission in division history is a nice pick-up for a fighter coming off a one-sided beating. Skelly took a page out of Blanco’s book and came out guns blazing; closing the show just as quickly as it started. I don’t see Chas getting another crack at Elkins, like he requested, but a bout with another top 15 fighter isn’t out of the question.Gabriel Benitez
Coming off a brutal knockout loss against Andre Fili, Benitez could have been handed his walking papers with another loss here. Instead, he looked sharp on the feet and put Sicilia to sleep on the mat. Solid performance.Losers Dustin Poirier
Poirier was in the title conversation. He was charging up the rankings in a new division and all of that came to an abrupt end in just 95-seconds. Dustin never seemed comfortable, looking for a moment to start attacking that never came. His standing in the division will take a hit and with the depth at Lightweight, he’ll need to put together another impressive run just to get back to this point.Uriah Hall
The stoppage was probably a little quick, but when you get dropped like that it’s hard for the ref to sit back and let your opponent unload on you for too long. After a 5-1 run, Uriah has lost back to back fights and hasn’t looked good in either outing. Hall’s ability to hold relevancy based on his highlight wins is fading and getting knocked out won’t help that. He’ll stick around, but he needs to take a step back in competition.Kenny Robertson
The only reason Carneiro isn’t here is because he got the win. I felt Robertson did just enough to win, but sometimes “just enough” isn’t good enough. Robertson had success on the mat and on the feet, but for whatever reason he wasn’t able to push the pace consistently enough to solidify the win. Welterweight is a deep division and Robertson could be out of a job after this type of a performance.Maximo Blanco
There was a lot of hype surrounding Maxi coming into the UFC, but he hasn’t even come close to living up to it. With back to back opening round submission losses, I can’t imagine Maxi getting to stick around for another opportunity.Sam Sicilia
Sicilia has lost back to back fights and has been finished 5-times in the UFC. He has been touted as a heavy-handed brawler, but with just 3 knockouts over 11 Octagon bouts that reputation is a hard sell. Sam’s willingness to swing for the fences helped to keep him employed, that probably won’t be enough to save him again.Final Thoughts
The card was solid with the exclusion of a couple of fights. I keep trying to like Michael Johnson and he keeps doing things to make me dislike him more. Fortunately for him, he is in the business of violence, not friendship. The Gold Parlay in the Bet backed suffered another last second letdown, with Poirier unable to seal the deal as the fourth leg. That unfortunate trend continues. he beat goes on for the UFC with another card just a week away, but despite my best efforts I am having trouble getting excited for this one. Cyborg smash!
Selection 1: Kenny Robertson -105
Selection 2: Islam Makhachev -115
Selection 3: Alejandro Perez -115
Selection 4: Sam Sicilia -157
Price: +1017 x Bet: 10 units
Payout: 101.71 units
Selection 1: Jose Quinonez +150
Selection 2: Antonio Carlos Junior to Win by Submission +180
Selection 3: Kenny Robertson -105
Selection 4: Dustin Poirier -158
Price: +2132 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 170.53 units
Selection 1: Derek Brunson/Uriah Hall Total Rounds Under 2.5 +142
Selection 2: Evan Dunham/Rick Glenn Total Rounds Under 2.5 +157
Selection 3: Kenny Robertson/Roan Carneiro Total Rounds Under 2.5 +130
Selection 4: Alejandro Perez -115
Price: +2574 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 205.95 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Kamikaze =================================================== Fighter 1: Dustin Poirier $10400 Fighter 2: Kenny Robertson $9300 Fighter 3: Islam Makhachev $9800 Fighter 4: Chas Skelly $10300 Fighter 5: Belal Muhammad $10200 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Overdrive =================================================== Fighter 1: Derek Brunson $10000 Fighter 2: Evan Dunham $10700 Fighter 3: Kenny Robertson $9300 Fighter 4: Islam Makhachev $9800 Fighter 5: Antonio Carlos Junior $9900 =================================================== Salary Remaining:
*I am suffering a major technical issue with my computer. As a result, these breakdowns will be directly to the point.
Dustin Poirier -158 vs Michael Johnson +148
Johnson’s chin and cardio are the 2 biggest issues. Over 5 rounds, Dustin is going to land and Johnsn is going to slow down. Poirier is the more compact striker and a little quicker, which should help him beat MJ to the punch routinely. Poirier has a lot of momentum and at this price he is a solid investment. Gold Play.
Over 5 rounds, Dustin should be able to land a decent volume of strikes and MJ has had some issues on the mat so there is potential for scoring points there as well. Johnson’s chin hasn’t bulletproof and Poirier has shown stopping power at LW. Team Kamikaze.
Derek Brunson -180 vs Uriah Hall +174
Hall is capable but inconsistent. Brunson is aggressive, but erratic. If Hall can slip something through the defense of Brunson, he could very well knock him out. He has more than a puncher’s chance. What I like is the wrestling of Brunson to carry the fight. Hall has had issues with giving up TDS and seems a little less willing to throw when he knows he could end up on his back. Watch for Brunson’s gas tank early though, if he goes for the finish and doesn’t get it a Live Bet on Hall could be worth a look at the right price. Brunson joins the Gold Parlay.
Brunson has shown his willingness to throw bombs early and look for the finish. That is a plus for a fantasy fighter. If he can’t get the finish he will mix together takedowns and top position strikes for a decent point total. I had Brunson around $10200-10300. I’ll take him at $10000 for Team Overdrive.
Evan Dunham -310 vs Rick Glenn +315
Glenn is no slouch, but he is over-matched here is just about every category. On top of that, he is fighting above his traditional weightclass. Dunham is an exhausting fighter and that will be difficult to manage for a smaller man. Dunham defends the grappling advances and outworks him on the feet. I’m going to throw him into my Gold Parlay.
Dunham joins team Overdrive. He is a capable finisher on the mat and Glenn as been subbed 3-times. Dunham’s vertical output has been on the rise over the last few fights and I expect that to be the case here. If this bout goes the distance I expect to see him land a minimum of 90 strikes. Takedowns, striking volume, and finish potential. Solid play.
Kenny Robertson -105 vs Roan Carneiro +103
Robertson opened as a slight dog here and is now the fav. While Carneiro is a veteran fighter, his lack of durability is concerning. Robertson isn’t a pretty striker, but he can crack and his combination of wrestling/grappling skills should keep him on the feet if that is where he wants to stay. If Robertson opts to take the fight to the mat, he has a strong submission acumen and can do damage from top position. Kenny takes it- big key in my Silver play.
Robertson is pulling double duty here. At $9300 he is being underpriced, which makes him a bargain right away. His punching power combined with Roan’s questionable durability also makes Kenny attractive. Kenny isn’t a popular/ well-known fighter so I attribute that to his low-price. Sign him up.
Chris Wade +110 vs Islam Makhachev -115
Wade is coming off a loss to similarly skilled fighter is Khabilov. I would argue that Islam is more active, but less defensively strong then Rustam. What this fight comes down to is that Wade struggles when he can’t control the wrestling exchanges. The wrestling will either be nullified on both sides or Islam will have the advantage. If it is nullified, the power and aggression of Mak will carry the action on the feet. His defensive issues are concerning, but Wade doesn’t throw enough to exploit them. Solid Silver play.
Makhachev is also pulling double duty, but more out of necessity than anything else. Based on his price point, $9800, and the amount of cash available he fits the bill. He is aggressive and active on the feet, he will look for takedowns, and knows how to finish on the floor. I don’t like the way Wade kept exposing his back when Rustam took him down, look for Mak to capitalize and lock in the sub.
Chas Skelly -181 vs Maximo Blanco +170
I love this play. Skelly is hard to put away and while his cardio has been a big issue at times, Maxi isn’t much better in that category- possibly worse. Blanco’s chin is not what is use to be and Chas can thump. If the fight hits the mat look for the crafty combo of wrestling and submissions of the American to give Blanco fits and possibly end the fight.- Skelly is the final leg in my Gold Play!
Skelly is a fighter I wanted to double up, but his price won’t allow me to do it. He is still more than reasonable to play though and will join team Kamikaze. He has stopping power on the feet and submission skills on the mat- both areas that Blanco has issues with. I like the finish here.
Gabriel Benitez +155 vs Sam Sicilia -157
Based on the fantasy line, we are getting a nice discount here. Gabe has tools that could trouble Sammy, but I like the wrestling of the American to mute Benitez’s offense. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Sicilia wade forward and blast away until the ref pulls him off. Sammy = Silver play.
At $11200, Sammy might get the finish but he is too rich for my blood.
Augusto Montano +363 vs Belal Muhammad -380
Hard pass! Belal has all of the tools to take this fight, but the price isn’t worth the risk.
He is a little more reasonably priced as a Fantasy option. While he isn’t known for his power, he strikes with enough regularity that he could put his foe down based on accumulation or pile up some output points. Takes could be an option as well based on Montano previous TDD issues. Belal also offers us some unique point potential as most will look at his decision heavy record and pass him over. I think he can do some damage and provides a little diversity. Team Kamikaze. On a side note, I wouldn’t be against replacing him with Brunson on Team Kamikaze. If I did that I wouldn’t play tam Overdrive in the same contest.
Antonio Carlos Junior -227 vs Leonardo Augusto Leleco +211
No play here. I will look at a prop as the best bet option.
Carlos Junior is constant submission threat and Leleco can be taken down. Look for Junior to put him on the mat, maintain position, and either attack an arm or neck. Leleco is a slow starter and ACJ will capitalize on that. Team Overdrive.
Joey Gomez -157 vs Jose Quinonez +150
Quinonez has decent skills and carries a strong pace, which a young fighter will struggle with as the fight progresses. Gomez looked stiff in his last fight and if he can’t score the early knockout, look for Jose to outwork him. Additionally, Quinonez is the Fantasy Favourite online and we have seen the betting dog who is the fantasy fav pick up wins of late. I like the hi as the center piece of my Bronze play.
Nothing here. Team is set.
Erick Montano +389 vs Randy Brown -425
Hard pass on Brown. He is vulnerable on the ground, but I don’t see Montano having the wrestling skills to put him down. Most likely looking at a prop bet here.
Too rich for my blood, but a stoppage is likely.
Albert Morales +103 vs Alejandro Perez -115
I can’t back a fighter that is so new to the business as Morales is. He has tools, but he is too green and has limited experience in longer fights. Taking a step up in competition can be difficult. Perez isn’t flashy, but he has solid kicks, some pop in his hands, and he is good on the mat. He is a step up in competition from the type of opponent that Morales has been beating. If he doesn’t fold up shop after the early exchanges, look for Perez to take over the fight. On top of everything, Perez is a heavy Fantasy favourite which is a trend I look for to cash in. Silver Parlay.
Way too costly. Pass.
1. Evan Dunham -310
2. Chas Skelly -181
3. Belal Muhammad -380
4. Randy Brown -425
5. Dustin Poirier -158
6. Derek Brunson -180
7. Antonio Carlos Junior -227
8. Kenny Robertson -105
9. Islam Makhachev -115
10. Alejandro Perez -115
11. Sam Sicilia -157
12. Jose Quinonez +150
1. Kenny Robertson -105
2. Jose Quinonez +150
3. Islam Makhachev -115
4. Alejandro Perez -115
5. Antonio Carlos Junior to Win by Submission +180
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Gabriel Benitez +155: I gave Benitez a decent look. He would be a bad counter if you have a parlay that comes down to Sicilia.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Information.
Derek Brunson/Uriah Hall Total Rounds Under 2.5 +142
Both guys are capable finisher. If Hall was able to knockout Mousasi, he can knockout Brunson. Conversely, Brunson has shown that he has some decent pop and will let his hands go. If Brunson uses his wrestling to grind this fight to a halt on the mat, the Under 2.5 could be a pipe dream. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him come out firing early- either getting the finish or opening himself up to get finished.
Evan Dunham/Rick Glenn Total Rounds Under 2.5 +157
Glenn is a capable finisher, but this play is based on Dunham. With Glenn moving up, Dunham will look to impose his will on the smaller fighter. That could come on the mat, where Rick has been subbed 3-times. Either through striking damage or a submission, look for Dunham to lock down the finish here.
Kenny Robertson/Roan Carneiro Total Rounds Under 2.5 +130
The numbers tell the story here. They have a combined 25 wins inside the distance compared to 10 by decision. Just as important, if not more so, Roan has been stopped 7-times in his career. Robertson is a grinder, but he knows how to finish. Look for this one not to need the judges.
Chas Skelly/Maximo Blanco Will Not Go to Decision -160
I considered playing the Under here, but I think we might need a little more than 1.5 rounds. Skelly is far more durable than Blanco, but if he eats enough shots or the perfect one I could see him taking a nap. More likely it is going to be the opposite scenario. Blanco’s chin appears to have diminished and Skelly can crack. He can also be a dangerous guy to tangle with on the mat and Blanco has some sub defense issues. The Under could cash, but I like the extra time here.Gabriel Benitez/Sam Sicilia
See Betting Scenario Section.
Antonio Carlos Junior to Win by Submission +180
For ACJ, 4 of his 5 wins have come by submission. That is a pretty solid start for a prop bet on him to win by submission. Leleco has never been subbed, but his TDD is pretty weak and if Antonio can get him down he can submit him. At plus money, this is a solid bet.
Erick Montano/Randy Brown
See Betting Scenario Section.Albert Morales/Alejandro Perez
See Betting Scenario Section.