UFN 91 Bet Pack

Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available

The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: John Lineker -157 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Lauren Murphy -170 
Selection 3: Cristina Stanciu -150 
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Price: +333 Bet: 12 units
Payout: 40 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Kyle Noke -160 
Selection 2: Ben Nguyen -115 
Selection 3: Rani Yahya +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Cristina Stanciu -150 
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Price: +1014  x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 81.12 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: John Lineker -157 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Ben Nguyen -115 
Selection 3: Cody Pfister +274 
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Price: +1045  x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 83.57 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:  Alex Nicholson +201 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Josh Samman/Tim Boetsch Fight Does Not Go to Decision -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Alexey Oleinik to Win by Submission +165 
Selection 4: John Lineker/Michael McDonald Total Round Under 1.5 +145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +3039  x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 182.32 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Tony Ferguson to Win by Submission +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med 
Selection 2: Lauren Murphy to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +400 
Selection 3: Eric Spicely/Sam Alvey Total Rounds Under 2.5 -127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +1956  x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 156.44 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Tony Ferguson to Win by Submission +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Lauren Murphy to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +400 
Selection 3: Eric Spicely/Sam Alvey Total Rounds Under 2.5 -127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Alexey Oleinik to Win by Submission +165 
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Price: +5347  x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 320.83 units

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: John Lineker $9700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Ben Nguyen $9600 
Fighter 3: Lauren Murphy $10100 
Fighter 4: Cristina Stanciu $10200 
Fighter 5: Rani Yahya $10000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Overdrive
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Fighter 1: Josh Samman $10600 
Fighter 2: Alexey Oleinik $10800 
Fighter 3: Sam Alvey $11000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Cody Pfister $8700 
Fighter 5: Alex Nicholson $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining: 
 
 
 

 

John Lineker -157 vs Michael McDonald +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight should be pure violence, for however long it lasts. Both fighters have massive power, but they deploy it in different ways. Lineker likes to move forward and stalk his opponent; land body shots, leg kicks, and then explode on them when they run out of room to move along the cage. For Mayday, he will trade hands, but he also looks for oppurtunties to counter strike. I don’t lik the way McDonald doesn’t use his jab consistently. That is the key to keeping Lineker from closing the gap and getting in range. Faber was landing right hooks that were clearly hurting him and lead to the finish. Lineker will be able to as well. I expect to see Lineker as the quicker fighter, which will be a big change for McDonald who is normally faster that his opponents. Both fighters have also shown a willingness to just sitdown and throw wild exchanges- I favour Lineker in that scenario. The reach isn’t huge for Mayday, and his height leaves his head exposed to over the top power punches. I like Lineker’s power, chin, and composure if the leather starts flying. He makes the cut in my Gold parlay and will also be part of 1 of my 2 Silver parlays.

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At $9900, Lineker is a pretty affordable Fantasy option. He has violent knockout power and his volume numbers are respectable. With this fight set at 5-rounds he should pile up some decent volume and possibly some takedowns if this fight doesn’t end early. McDonald has proven susceptible on the mat, so a knockdown followed by a sub is possible. I am hearing a lot of dislike around the betting/fantasy work regarding the former Flyweight, so I expect a lot of people to be loading up on Mayday at a slightly cheaper price. Team Kamikaze.

Landon Vannata +587 vs Tony Ferguson -650 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here. Vannata is game and won’t shy away from Ferg, but that actually plays into Tony’s style. I will take a look at the total, but I don’t expect it have a tonne of value eithere.

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$11500 is way to much to pay even if though I can’t see ‘Lando’ going a full 3-rounds with Tony.

 

Josh Samman -200 vs Tim Boetsch +195 

Samman is the better fighter, but there is always that concern that Boetsch gets dummied for a round or even 2 before landing a bomb. While Samman is faster, younger, bigger, and more diverse a fighter- Boetsch has power and is durable enough to hang in for that one big shot. Tim has suffered back to back knockout losses and overall the finishes are starting to pile up. I simply can’t back Tim here on the chance that he could land something and knockout Samman. I will protect my big investments though and keep Josh away from my Gold or Silver plays. He might make an appearance in my Bronze play or it might be a prop related to the fight.

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Samman can finish (11 of 12 wins) and Boetsch can be finished (7 of 10 losses). Those are numbers to look for when building a strong fantasy squad. At $10600, Samman is manageable and with the other dogs picked on Team Overdrive he fits into the budget. If we don’t get a finish, Tim is hittable and as he slows down Josh should find success both with his striking and his takedowns. I still expect a finish here in the end.

Alexey Oleinik -190 vs Daniel Omielanczuk +186 

Oleinik is returning after a long layoff, he had multiple knee surgeries, he is getting pretty old, and he has a tonne of MMA mileage. I still think he gets it done here. Omielanczuk’s TDD has not looked good in the UFC. Rosholt’s TDs were understandable, but Hamilton took him down with relative ease as well. Oleinik beat both of those guys, but that doesn’t figure in much here. Even if Omielanczuk can stay vertical early, he was exhausted in his last bout from fending off a rudimentary clinch attack. As long as Oleinik’s chin holds up, he should get this fight to the mat eventually. He has a variety of tools in his bag to call on once they hit the floor and Daniel has looked pretty weak off his back. Watch out for that scarf hold. Still, like Samman, this pick could get startched with one big shot. He doesn’t make the cut in my top 2 plays, but will probably make an appearance in my Bronze section. There is also a chance that the side bet gets replaced with a prop depending on the numbers.

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Oleinik is a finisher (46 of 50 wins), which is darn impressive. While Omielanczuk has never been finished in any way, he is clearly vulnerable to the skill set that Alexey brings to the table. If this fight happens to go deep without a stoppage, I expect to see AO picking up the takedowns and working a lot from top position where he should score us some points. The aforementioned factors at the start of my betting breakdown coupled with Daniel’s zero losses by finish will most likely deter a lot of people away from picking Oleinik. That opens the door for some unique points. Team Overdrive.

Keita Nakamura +150 vs Kyle Noke -160 

I looked long and hard at Nakamura to pull off the upset. I went back and forth and settled on Noke in the end. If Nakamura wins this fight its with his takedowns, which is something that Noke has had issues with. That being said, Keita is hittable and Nokes can put together some decent volume when he is on. Nakamura isn’t known for his cardio and the negative impact on the body caused by traveling East to West has long be documented. This is Nakamura’s first trip to the States since 2008, only 2nd out of Japan in that same time frame. On the other hand Noke trains at altitude. The Aussie is a big guy and if Nakamura exhausts himself trying to wrangle him to the mat, that will open up a chance for the Aussie to pull ahead. It should be a close fight and could easily come down to the third round, but I like Noke in that scenario to outwork him as the better striker and more conditioned athlete. Noke makes the cut in 1 of my Silver parlays.

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No play here. I see less finish potential on Noke’s part than other options in this price range- Samman, Murphy, & Stanciu.

Ben Nguyen -115 vs Louis Smolka +108 

Smolka has looked good in his last couple of fights, but those fights took place under certain scenarios. He beat a similarly skilled fighter in Holohan and was able to endure the early onslaught of Seery and dragged him into a grappling bout. Richie Vas was lighting Louis up on the feet until he got caught in round 3. Nguyen has brutal power and solid counter wrestling. His speed and ability to land high volume combinations won’t play well against Smolka who doesn’t use his reach that well. Look for Ben to land harder strikes and do it more often. I could see a finish materializing here. Smolka is still developing a very strong grappling attack, so I have Ben ’10’ in both of my Silver parlays.

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Nguyen also makes the cut on Team Kamikaze. Nguyen is actually a bit of an underdog on the Fantasy Line which adds some value here. Smolka has a main event win under his belt, which makes him a more known commodity amongst the masses. Ben has opened the prelims with a limit audience in both of his UFC fights. I think that will shift most people to Smolka for just $200 more. Additionally, the FLWs aren’t known for stopping skills, but Ben has gone the distance just twice in 16 fights. That is an excellent scenario of point producing potential that will probably be the lesser picked of the 2 fighters.

Katlyn Chookagian +169 vs Lauren Murphy -170 

Murphy got a pair of tough draws to start her UFC run and lost them both, but she is better for it. She is improving in all areas. She throws with decent volume, maintains pressure, can work in the clinch and has a solid top game. Chookagian is no slouch, but I anticipate that she will attempt to cut to 115 after this fight. She has been a career 125er with a 130-pound catchweight fight under her belt. Murphy is quite strong and I think the impact and pace will overwhelm Katlyn. A common theme in Chook’s fights was that her opponents had a lot of success backing her up against the cage and locking down the clinch. Against a bigger, more active opponent- that scenario could be deadly or at least detrimental to her ability to win the fight. Lauren knows how to finish and will push the new girl to the brink. Gold Parlay.

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Murph also joins Team Kamikaze. I love capitalizing on WMMA bouts that probably get passed by because Women aren’t known for finishing. That is incorrect. Murphy has stopped her opponent in 7 of her 9 wins. That by itself is big. She is also coming off a 95 sig strike performance and she has shown decent wrestling skills in the past as well. With Chookagian coming in as the smaller fighter she’ll struggle with the impact of the of Murphy’s attack. Sign her up at a very affordable $10100.

Eric Spicely +231 vs Sam Alvey -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No side bet here, you’ll probably get a good look at a prop bet though.

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Alvey is expensive at $11000, but based on the dogs I have lined up for Team Overdrive he is affordable. Alvey’s last 2 performances were anything up good and probably left a bad taste in players’ mouths. Styles make fights and Spicely is an aggressive grappler that will be looking to close distance and put Sam on the mat. He will also give up position just to get horizontal if he can’t score the takedown. Sam has excellent counter wrestling and will punish Spicely if he isn’t careful closing the distance. If Sam gets top position, look for some dangerous fight ending GNP. I think Alvey returns to his winning ways in impressive fashion. Team Overdrive.

 

Cortney Casey +138 vs Cristina Stanciu -150 

I gave Casey as good a look as I could and still did not pick her. Both girls are probably going to slow down after the 1st round, but I think Stanciu will put together a better performance than in her debut. She has her UFC legs under her now and that is big. I give her a speed advantage, she is more technically sound as a striker, and her grappling is superior too. Casey is bigger and that should help her deal with the impact of Stanciu’s strikes and add some pop to her won. That being said, Ham is not known for her finishing skills/power and she was hurting Casey with some big shots. Unless Stanciu blows her entire gas tank going for an early finish and crashes hard, she takes this fight with a finish or on the scorecards. Gold level parlay and an appearance in one of my 2 Silver parlays.

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Cristina also joins Team Kamikaze. I’m banking on players passing over at least 1 female fighter, possibly 2, and that makes the potential for unique points even greater. Stanciu can finish, 4 of 5 wins have come inside the distance,  and she isn’t afraid to go for it. If she can’t get the early stoppage, look for her to pick up some points against a hittable opponent that can be taken down as well. Girl power!

 

Cody Pfister +274 vs Scott Holtzman -302 

Loving the line on Pfister here. Holtzman’s debut was over arguably the lowest level fighter in the division at the time. Dober, who isn’t known for his power wrestling game, had a tonne of success planting him on the mat and keeping him there. Holtzman rallied in round 2, but was all but done in the final frame. Pfister is a better wrestler, has a stout chin, and keeps coming forward. He is also a good sized LW. If he can establish his takedowns I see him grinding out a decision or even stopping Scott late in the fight. I’m still not sure what Holtzman has done to warrant such a big line here. I like Pfister here as a part of my second Silver parlay.

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Pfister also joins Team Overdrive. His finishing numbers aren’t out of this world; 8 vs 5 decision wins, but I like the price. If he can pick up some decent takedown numbers and augment them with some top position strikes that will add up over 3-rounds. His sub $9000 price mark creates the extra cash needed to spend on the rest of the lineup. Additionally, I don’t see Pfister being a popular pick even for those that have to search through the discount bin.

Matthew Lopez -125 vs Rani Yahya +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Yahya gets overlooked a lot. He isn’t the most exciting fighter, but he is certainly good at what he does. Lopez is another Dana White reality show find, so I’m sure they looked for a matchup that would give him a good chance at getting that win to help push the legitimacy of the series. Lopez is taking a major step up in competition and while he is definitely the better striker, he is way too willing to grapple. Some of his opponents have had success clinching up and event taking him down. When he does get in those spots, he engages on the at instead of stepping away to strike. While it has worked for him so far, it will cost him against Rani. Look for Yahya to put him on the mat and keep him there. The guy is strong and has given a lot of veteran wrestlers trouble. I like Yahya to either get the sub or do enough over 2 rounds to get a decision. He is part of one of my Silver Parlays.

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Yahya gets the final spot on Team Kamikaze. He has submission skills that will give a young fighter trouble and while he doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, his takedowns and transitions will pile up. Even though he is at $10000, he is still playable. It is probably worth noting that Yaha is the fantasy fav, which makes me like my bet on him that much more.

Alex Nicholson +201 vs Devin Clark -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both guys are raw. Real raw. Most are pointing to Clark’s better striking technique and takedowns as the key to getting the job done. Totally understandable. I like the size of Nicholson and that he already has his debut under his belt. With Clark’s frame, I don’t see him adjusting well to 185- especially on the first try. He also tends to attack in bursts and if he can’t get Nicholson out of there quickly, the Octagon jitters, impact of the weight cut, and having to deal with a bigger man will take its toll. Still, its a hard fight to gauge- Bronze Parlay.

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Nicholson rounds out team Overdrive. We are aware of the finishing rate in fights in this spot on the card. He has 7 win by stoppage and if this bout gets sloppy his length and height advantages will help him to get the better of the action. He is being overlooked by most, which creates unique points for us and he comes very cheap.

 

1. Tony Ferguson -650 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Sam Alvey -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Lauren Murphy -170 

4. Josh Samman -200 

5. Cristina Stanciu -150 

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6. John Lineker -157 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Kyle Noke -160 

8. Alexey Oleinik -190 

9. Ben Nguyen -115 

10. Rani Yahya +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Cody Pfister +274 

12. Alex Nicholson +201 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Cody Pfister +274 

2. Rani Yahya +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Alex Nicholson +201 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Ben Nguyen -115 

5. Tony Ferguson to Win by Submission +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Keita Nakamura +150: 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med Noke can be a little hit and miss at times and this fight in a late slot on the card that could be the deciding leg of a parlay. Consider hedging your bets late.

2. Cortney Casey +138: 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med Keep a close eye on this fight. If Stanciu is looking like she might be fading after an early burst, consider Live Betting Casey. If Stanciu slows down, the size advantage for Casey might be enough to get her through a pair of tough rounds and steal the decision.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

 

John Lineker/Michael McDonald Total Round Under 1.5 +145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

When you have the type of power that these two have and the willingness to sling that leather, it is hard not to take a shot on the Under here. Lineker has one hell of a chin and McDonald isn’t easy to put away, but I anticipate that we will see them biting down on their mouthguards early and letting it fly. I see the chin of ‘Mayday’ giving out first, but this could also end by submission. We have had a lot of main events ending early recently. I expect to see another here. Play the Under.

Tony Ferguson to Win by Submission +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like that we are getting plus money here. Ferguson seems very inclined to go for submissions, even if he is hurting his opponent on the feet. Of his last 4 wins, 3 have come by tap out. He presses fighters and forces them to shoot out of desperation, which allows him to set up his subs. He has overwhelmed battled tested vets, a short-notice debutant will be in for a long/ short night. Watch for that D’Arce choke.

Josh Samman/Tim Boetsch Fight Does Not Go to Decision -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m not 100% sold on the Under 1.5 as both guys are pretty tough, but I can still see this fight ending early. Samman is most likely going to finish the fight through damage accumulation, which could take more the 1.5 round allotted. When Timmy gets a finish it usually comes after a bit of a back and forth before he catches them in an exchange. Boetsch chin hasn’t looked great recently and that could be a sign of the times for him, but I want to have this play still live in the 3rd round if we get there.

Alexey Oleinik to Win by Submission +165 

41-career wins by submission, 9 on his current 11-fight winning streak. Omielanczuk has never been finished, but his TDD has been weak and he has struggled off his back. Once Oleinik gets the fight to the ground, he isn’t going to sit in guard, he is looking to finish.

Katlyn Chookagian/Lauren Murphy 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Eric Spicely/Sam Alvey Total Rounds Under 2.5 -127 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We are probably getting the extra inning based on Alvey’s last performance. Styles make matchups. Elias fought to avoid, Spicely will not. He will be looking for the clinch, takedowns, and submission opportunities. That will put him directly in the line of fire for Alvey’s nukes. The reason I am not on the Knockout prop is that I want to have Spicely’s submission skills in my back pocket if he gets in a position to finish. I assumed we would be looking at 1.5, play the 2.5.

Cortney Casey/Cristina Stanciu Total Rounds Under 2.5 +185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both girls are aggressive and will go for it early. I wasn’t impressed with how Casey handled herself on the mat against Jo Jo. Stanciu hits hard and will grab a sub once they hit the floor. If we go beyond the opening frame, both girls could slow a little and let their defense open up allowing some big shots to sneak through. I like the Under in this bout.

Matthew Lopez/Rani Yahya

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Nicholson/Devin Clark

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White

 

 

 

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