UFN 85: Hunt vs Mir- ‘Head Hunted’ | The B.S. Report
The delay in posting my UFN 85 review and updating the site is the result of a pair scenarios, none of which have anything to do with my horrendous prediction performance during the UFC’s most recent trip to the ‘Land Down Under’. Sometimes you got it and sometimes you don’t. That is a sentiment that can be applied to several fighters on this card along with myself. That being said, there were a number of fighters on this night that appeared to be on the cusp of victory only to have it snatched away. Let’s take a look at his card top to bottom in the first installment of my BS report.Alan Patrick def. Damien Brown via Dec.
Patrick dominated this fight start to finish, but considering the circumstances surrounding Brown’s debut a finish seemed like a more legit outcome for the Brazilian.
B.S.- Patrick’s fight IQ left a lot to be desired despite a one-sided fight.
Real Record: 1-0 | What could have been: 1-0Ross Pearson def. Chad Laprise via Split Dec.
This fight played out pretty close to how I called it. Pearson moved forward, but wasn’t landing anything too significant. Laprise had the greater volume of strikes over the entire fight and in each round, but was moving backwards too much.
B.S.-Pearson flipped the script here and played the role of Diego Sanchez, chasing, getting out landed, and then stealing a garbage decision.
Real Record: 1-1 | What could have been: 2-0Viscardi Andrade def Richard Walsh via Dec.
Walsh clearly got the better of the striking exchanges and hurt Andrade a couple of times. Viscardi was visibly exhausted and relied heavily on his takedown game to save his backside.
B.S.- The referee’s inability to recognize that Andrade’s “submission attempts” were just low energy moves to give the perception of remaining busy on the mat without having to throw strikes. Stand ups were warranted.
Real Record: 1-2 | What could have been: 3-0Leslie Smith def Rin Nakai via Dec
Smith kept the fight standing long enough to get the win over her grappling reliant foe. Despite her ridiculous reach advantage, she was still getting tagged with a few decent shots from Nakai. Rin found success in the middle round and after gassing in the final frame, it was evident that her lack of effort to drag Smith to the mat in round 1 was her undoing.
B.S.- The judge that opted to give Smith the middle round despite Naki dominating on the mat and attempting to finish, should be fired.
Real Record: 1-3 | What could have been: 3-1Dan Hooker def. Mark Eddiva via Sub. Rnd 1
Hooker made short work of his opponent, despite Eddiva coming out very aggressive. Daniel might not crack the rankings any time soon (or ever), but he will remain a tough test for a large portion of the division.
B.S.-Why Eddiva opted to grapple with Hooker and negate his striking skills and speed advantage is beyond me.
Real Record: 1-4 | What could have been: 3-2Alan Jouban def. Brendan O’Reilly via TKO Rnd 1
Short of a well executed foot sweep, Jouban shutdown he grappling of O’Reilly and then violently coerced him into fire fight that the Aussie got the worst of. This was an all risk and little reward fight for Jouban- a loss would have all be whisked away any hype surrounding his future.
B.S.-Jouban should be allowed to wear a mask, his facial features are a national treasure.
Real Record: 2-4 | What could have been: 4-2Bec Rawlings def. Seohee Ham via Dec.
This was a very entertaining bout, with a lot of back and forth. Ham started and finished strong, but Rawlings seemed to get the better of enough of each round to get the judge’s nod.
B.S.-Ham was clearly the more technical fighter and deserved much better than the pair of 30-27 handed in against her.
Real Record: 3-4 | What could have been: 5-2Steve Bosse def. James Te-Huna vi KO Rnd 1
Bosse hits like a hammer and Te-Huna is clearly done competing in the UFC. Even if they opt to give him another shot after the long layoff, with the stoppages starting to accumulate, his health should be his first priority.
B.S.- Bosse has 81 seconds of official UFC action, despite his last non-UFC fight taking place almost 3 years ago.
Real Record: 3-5 | What could have been: 5-3Dan Kelly def. Antonio Carlos Junior via TKO Rnd 3
The Brazilian thought he was playing with house money after a dominant round 1, but the older gentleman in the cage thought otherwise. ACJ was disrespectful of his opponent after the opening round and fought like Kelly would fold up shop if Carlos answered the bell in round 2. That wasn’t the case and Dan Kelly is now 4-1 inside the Octagon.
B.S.- It really shows how insignificant the Ultimate Fighter has become. Kelly was an opening round washout during his season while AJC demolished the competition and won his season fighting two divisions above where this fight took place.
Real Record: 3-6 | What could have been: 6-3Jake Matthews def. Johnny Case via Sub Rnd 3
Case was ahead on the scorecards going into the third. Unlike the Kelly/ACJ fight, this was far from one-sided and Matthews was holding his own. Matthews gets the biggest win of his career and while Case suffers his first UFC loss this is still a great bout to build on going forward.
B.S.-There really isn’t a lot of negative to say about this fight.
Real Record 3-7 | What could have been: 7-3Neil Magny def. Hector Lombard via TKO Rnd 3
Lombard showed his hand just a bit too early. After a dominant opening round, easily scored a 10-8- the former Bellator champ was done. Neil Magny survived and then turned the action in his favour in a big way. Magny adds another impressive name to his resume and is almost certainly knocking on the door of a future title shot. Hopefully he can remain as active in 2016 as he has in previous years.
B.S.-That ref. How many unanswered strikes were needed to bring about the stoppage? Talk about incompetence.
Real Record: 3-8 | What could have been: 8-3Mark Hunt def. Frank Mir via KO Rnd 1
Every time Mark Hunt enters the cage there is potential for something epic to happen. Against Mir, he did not disappoint. Hunt will always be a fan favourite and I wouldn’t mind seeing a rematch against Werdum for the title (if he beats Stipe), considering he took their first meeting on short notice.
B.S.-Frank looked like garbage. He looked out of shape and out of his depth. He thank the referee for saving him from further damage, but he should consider saving himself from himself and walk away altogether.
Real Record: 3-9 | What could have been: 8-4Final Thougts
This was a really fun night of fights, with several big moments. Unfortunately, my performance didn’t match the Octagon action. Oh, what could have been! Horseshoes and Hand Grenades. The train wreck of a Bet Pack, as always, is posted below. Until next time fight fans.
Selection 1: Frank Mir +145
Selection 2: Hector Lombard +105
Selection 3: Chad Laprise -110
Selection 4: Alan Patrick -241
Price: +1257 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 87.97 units
Selection 1: Mark Eddiva +186
Selection 2: Rin Nakai +138
Selection 3: Frank Mir/Mark Hunt Total Rounds Over 1.5 +110
Price: +1329 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 79.77 units
Selection 1: Richard Walsh +100
Selection 2: Rin Nakai/Leslie Smith Total Rounds Under 2.5 +179
Selection 3: Antonio Carlos Junior/Dan Kelly Total Rounds Under 1.5 -152
Selection 4: Alan Patrick/Damien Brown Total Rounds Under 2.5 +122
Price: +1954 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 117.22 units
Selection 1: Johnny Case -107
Selection 2: James Te Huna/Steve Bosse Total Rounds Under 1.5 -187
Selection 3: Alan Jouban/Brendan O’Reilly Total Rounds Under 1.5 -111
Selection 4: Chad Laprise -110
Price: +977 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 58.65 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Lineup #1 =================================================== Fighter 1: Frank Mir $9100 Fighter 2: Hector Lombrd $9600 Fighter 3: Antonio Carlos Junior $11100 Fighter 4: Alan Jouban $11200 Fighter 5: Rin Nakai $9000 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Lineup #2 =================================================== Fighter 1: Johnny Case $9700 Fighter 2: James Te Huna $10500 Fighter 3: Bec Rawlings $9500 Fighter 4: Richard Walsh $9400 Fighter 5: Alan Patrick $10800 =================================================== Salary Remaining:
Frank Mir +145 vs Mark Hunt -155
Mir has looked improved in his recent outings, even in defeat. He is limiting the damage that his opponent’s can do and improved his own offense. His ability to go the distance with Overeem, Arlovski, even Cormier is evidence of that. He did get drawn into a wild brawl against Duffee which would be a mistake against Hunt. The majority of people are looking at this fight and using Mir’s knockout history in combination with Hunt’s power. Totally understandable and if Hunt wins this fight it will probably come by knockout. Hunt has a tendency to be a bit of head hunter. He throws hard, but its knockout or bust. In his last fight he really struggled with the grappling of his opponent and he started to slow down early in the fight as a result. While Mir doesn’t have the best takedowns at range, he does a nice job of tying his opponent up in the clinch. Against a similar built opponent in Roy Nelson he was able to grind him along the cage and take away his punching power through exhaustion. I expect something similar here. If Frank gets the fight to the mat it is an entirely different story. Additionally, Hunt’s chin might not be nearly as rock solid as in the past. His last 3 losses all came via knockout. I like picking on the side of the fighter that has more ways to win a fight. Mir probably won’t knockout, but that scenario is far more likely then Hunt subbing Frank. With HWs things can change in the blink of an eye (see Ben Rothwell’s last couple of fights for proof) so I feel Mir fits well in the Silver pack. Decent odds and the majority of the public betting on this fight based on one shallow scenario.
Looking at their respective track records, there is value in Mir. Hunt has been finished in all 10 of his losses and Mir has stopped his opponent in 7 of his last 8 wins. At just $9100, Mir is very cheap for his and his opponents finishing history. If this fight does go the distance, he will have 5 rounds to pick up striking and grappling based points. By using Mir in our #1 lineup we create extra cash to spend on 2 big fish that I expect to win rather handily. Additionally, a high percentage of players will back Hunt as an inexpensive favourite expecting the knockout. That makes Mir’s point all the more important.
Neil Magny -112 vs Hector Lombard +105
Magny has been on a role and taken out a number of solid opponents. The streak leading up to the Maia loss was impressive, but against lower level and flawed competition. When moving up in caliber of opponent, he was dominated on the mat by Maia and then took split decisions over Silva and Gastelum. Both his splits were close and having watched the fights a couple of times (picked Mangy over Gastelum) I feel the difference was his ability to get the better of the grappling. He scored takedowns and was taken down, but he did a little more on the mat and won because of it. I don’t think that will be possible here. Lombard is incredibly difficult to take down and with his low stature it will be difficult for Neil to level change and put him on his back. A lot of people are looking at Lombard’s cardio as a weakness. In his fights against Sheilds and Burkman, he went a full 3 rounds and didn’t slow down much at all. The layoff and possible impact of no PEDs (which he denies using) could change that. The punching power and physical strength of Lombard in combination with his Judo will simply be too much for Magny. Still with the aforementioned issues, I want to see Lombard back in the cage full-time before I put big money down on him. Silver Parlay Leg.
Similar to Mir, Lombard is a very affordable underdog with the ability to finish or at the very least dominate and saves us money for other team members. We just saw Darren Elkins (your welcome) as a dog pick up a dominant victory and score 95 points without finishing. Lombard won’t carry the activity rate of Elkins, but if he is able to rag doll Magny like he did against Shields (no easy feat vs Jake) and put him on the mat he has the ability to take a decision within the 70-90 point range. Keep in mind, Magny has been submitted in 3 of his 4 losses and Lombard has a sound ground game. Hector could control the action start to finish, sub him or pound him out. He joins Mir on my #1 squad.
Jake Matthews +105 vs Johnny Case -107
The line is changing in this fight, with Matthews shifting from the slight favourite to the slight dog. He has looked very good against a certain class of competition, but when he stepped up to face James Vick he was subbed in the opening round. His all systems go- full blast style can overwhelm lower levle opponents but leaves him vulnerable against better opposition. I see Case falling into the latter category. Matthews needs to get this fight to the mat, which is something that Case has had some issues with- but he has still been able to overcome his opponents’ takedowns. I see him having a sizeable advantage on the feet and if Matthews is forced to fight into the second half of the bout the aggression that makes him so effective will be difficult to maintain in a longer fight. I was really pumped to bet Case as the dog, but he still has some playable value here as the more experienced, more battle tested, and more finsihed fighter. I have Case in my #1 play.
Case is reasonably priced at $9700. He has averaged 76 points per fight, which has included 2 decisions. If he can’t get the finish, which he has done in 18 of his 22 wins, he has be increasing is overall striking output each fight with 74 significant strikes in his last fight. He needs to stay off his back to maximize his scoring potential, but a finish or a strong decision win are both highly likely against an opponent stepping up beyond the level of competition he has been successful against. DK lineup #2.
Antonio Carlos Junior -485 vs Dan Kelly +444
This fight is a No Play. I fully expect that ACJ is going to take this bout, but the odds simply aren’t worth the risk. Kelly has been a sizeable underdog in most of his cards and while I feel his style left him avenues to victories in those fights that don’t exist here- it is not worth it. The total is going to be playable though.
We see this a lot, where a No Play is the call when betting, but not when picking your Fantasy team. Kelly has only been finished once in his career and is 3-1 in the UFC, but he is a pretty one-dimensional fighter. His striking is weak and his grappling game isn’t as strong as it should be for how heavy he relies on it. ACJ should have no issue engaging with him in the clinch and on the mat, and he has the type of power to crack the aging chin of the Aussie. The hard part about this pick is that he is going to cost you $11100. That is a fair chunk of change. The reason I like this play is that A) he can finish via knockout or submission (2 TKOs on TUF) and B) His price and lack of a big name is going to scare most people away. Unique points aren’t essential to a successful pick. For most players they will be looking to more recognizable and less expensive names. Playing ACJ forces you to be very frugal with the rest of your budget, well most of it, but that is what we are doing. Add him to DK lineup #1 with Frank and Hector.
James Te Huna -245 vs Steve Bosse +231
Up next, we have another scintillating ‘No Play’. Te Huna’s odds are a little more playable then ACJ’s, but the reasons they are lower are legit concerns. He has been out for a long time and his durability is a bit of a growing concern as he gets on in years. Bosse has a pretty small window (round 1) to land something significant and turn this fight in his favour- but I’d rather not invest. The side no, the total yes.
Now with Te Huna, he is an aggressive finisher. With 13 of 16 wins coming inside the distance, he knows how to finish and will be looking to impress in his return to action. Bosse has yet to show anything that would indicate he is UFC caliber and Te Huna has smashed lower level opposition. He started to stumble once he stepped up in competition, if he is set to return to his spot in the UFC he finishes Bosse. If he doesn’t stomp him out, look for a fairly decent striking total and workable takedowns numbers. In his last 2 decision victories he combined for 5 takedowns and 171 significant strikes. I have him on my #2 squad alongside Johnny ‘Hollywood’.
Bec Rawlings +108 vs SeoHee Ham -121
Rawlings isn’t well-liked. She probably would have come off even worse on her season of TUF has she lasted longer in the tourney and if Herrig and Esparaza weren’t doing their best ‘Mean Girls’ impersonation. Ham is the better striker, but she is flawed in that she closes the distance behind her strikes and fights as if he was twice her size. Casey was able to crack her several times and so was JoJo. Rawlings has a pretty solid clinch game and can do damage on the inside. She is coming off a bit of a layoff, but her cardio is pretty solid. She should also have a grappling advantage over Ham. I expect this one to go the distance considering that Ham is a decision machine and it should be close. I’m anticipating a bit of some hometown cooking in favour of Bec, so that means Ham has to dominator for the entire fight to win a decision. Rawlings controls her in the clinch, lands during the distance exchanges and scores a couple of key takedowns. With the value on Rawlings (I have this fight at even), she makes the cut in my #1 parlay. The total is also worth a look at the right price.
I don’t expect to see Rawlings finish Ham, but she did put away Ellis in her last fight and is capable of grabbing a sub on the mat. That being said- she is affordable at $9500 and can score points with takedowns and volume striking. Rawlings landed 70 strikes against Clark in a losing effort and that included a lot of defensive grappling. I could see her putting up close to 85 sig. strikes couple with a 2-3 takedowns resulting in 75-90 points in a decision win.
Alan Jouban -460 vs Brendan O’Reilly +431
I won’t be playing a side here either. Jouban should smash through O’Reilly who I rank well below Richard Walsh, who Jouban disposed of quickly. But, betting against a heavy home dog, especially in a location that could present some issues for the incoming fighter, is simply not worth it. I will look into the total in the prop section.
In an almost identical scenario to ACJ, Jouban is an expensive DK option that should be heads and tails above his opponent. At $11200, Alan is the most expensive dish on the menu, but I will be taking a shot. His striking game is significantly beyond what O’Reilly has to offer and he should be able to get him out of there fairly quickly. He has finished his opponent in 9 of his 12 wins, 6 in the 1st round. With his sky-high price, people will either opt to pass on Jouban in favour of a more evenly spread lineup or they will make a choice between the 2 big price tags available (Jouban or ACJ). That creates opportunities for unique points- I’m going to play both Jouban and ACJ together along with trio of capable underdog picks.
Daniel Hooker -199 vs Mark Eddiva +186
Hooker is tough and he is big for the division. He has a decent grappling game and isn’t afraid to trade. That being said, those are traits that can be overcome. He spent the last fight chasing his foe who was quicker, more diverse, and unwilling to stand and trade in a phone booth. I see Eddiva as the faster fighter and the more diverse striker, but he has to avoid getting drawn into a slugfest like he did against Souza. Hooker’s wrestling isn’t good enough to ground Eddiva, who has defended against better wrestlers. This could be a close fight, so picking against Hooker could result in a disappointing decision, even if Eddiva gets the better of the fight. Still, I like what he brings and at this price I’ll make him a part of my lower level Bronze Parlay. I considering playing 2 3 leg Bronze parlays using Eddiva and Nakai as my main side bet in each.
Eddiva got some consideration for my DK lineup, but ultimately missed out. There are better options in his price range that either have a better chance to finish or are more experienced.
Richard Walsh +100 vs Viscardi Andrade -106
This line is moving and on some books Walsh is the favourite, but the numbers are close. Andrade doesn’t wrestle well, so his grappling has been a non-factor. His striking is stiff, but he has some power. In his last fight, he benefited from his opponent’s lack of urgency early and Andrade was able to get ahead. Walsh’s striking looked much improved in his last fight and overall he has looked strong in 3 of his 4 UFC fights- was robbed against Kunimoto (who I picked and was still mad about the decision). I expect him to get the better of Andrade in both quantity and quality of offense. My only concern is that Andrade is either able to find another level with his wrestling or Walsh’s TDD is much worse than we expected and he gets planted on the mat way too often for way too long. Still, I like Walsh in my top play, joining Rawlings and Case as the final leg.
Wals also shows up on my DK radar. At $9400 and the betting line moving, we see some decent value on him here. He is capable of putting up some big numbers with his volume striking and a finish isn’t totally out of the question considering how hard he throw and his level of aggression. I’ve got Walsh slotted into my #2 lineup.
Rin Nakai +138 vs Leslie Smith -147
This is a fight I went back and forth on. I think the line on Nakai is set heavily on her only UFC fight, when she lost a lackluster decision to the woman currently holding the title. Her striking is horrendous, but Nakai is still a monster on the mat. She gave Tate some difficulty on the mat and that isn’t easy. Smith is a capable striker and if she keeps this fight vertical it is her’s to win. That being said, she isn’t a physically imposing fighter and her tall frame leaves her open to her opponent’s level changes. She likes to fight in the pocket and if she starts to unload and connect she could take Nakai right out of her element. But if she can’t fend off the shot of Nakai, she will spend a lot of the fight on the mat. Still, she has been out of action for a long time and despite beating some notable fighters outside of the UFC- she doesn’t have a win at this level. I have her in my Bronze pack.
Nakai rounds out my #1 team. At $9000, she is cheap and that allows us to use ACJ and Jouban in the same lineup. Nakai knows how to finish on the mat and her takedowns and top position strikes should amount to a decent return. I was impressed with her win over Sarah D’Alelio, a dominant ground win over a well-versed ground fighter. I expect something similar here.
Ross Pearson +100 vs Chad Laprise -112
A lot of people are questioning why Laprise is the favourite, and I understand why. Pearson is far more experience both in total fights and quality of opposition. Stylistically, Laprise represents some interesting challenges . Pearson is a good striker, but movement tends to give him problems. Going all the way back to his win over Ryan Couture, Couture was giving him trouble with his ability to stick and move. Pearson was doing a lot of chasing and connecting on very few of his strikes. Until the knockout. Can’t forget that. Laprise uses a lot of movement and should have the speed advantage here. He also has good power and I am not sold on Pearson’s chin. I would hope the Canadian tries to incorporate his wrestling in this fight as well. More is better when it comes to layers of offense. Laprise is coming off his first career loss and looking to rebound. I like that. He seems like the type that will put in the work and return better than before. This is a big step up in competition and with both guys making late opponent changes it adds an element of the unknown going into the fight. I have Laprise sitting in my Silver Parlay. A solid return, that will hopefully change as more people bet on the more recognizable name.
There is certainly some potential here as Laprise could score the knockout or put up some big striking totals combined with a possible takedown or 2, but I opted to leave this bout alone when it comes to Fantasy MMA.
Alan Patrick -241 vs Damien Brown +226
Opening fight of the night and lots of outside factors to consider. Brown is debuting on short notice and taking a massive step up in competition while fighting at home. Patrick is switching opponents, coming off his 1st pro loss, and has been relatively inactive over the last 2 years. Brown is scrappy, but recently lost a number of fights in a row when stepping up to compete under the Cage Warrior’s banner. He faced some solid competition in doing so, but Patrick should prove more than he can handle. Patrick is a flawed fighter, but he can still get a lot done. I am a little surprised the odds are set where they are. I think Patrick is worth a look here and could find his way into my Silver parlay as a 4th leg. Or I could just pass on this fight. Look to the Parlay section for confirmation.
Patrick does hit hard and Brown seems to be pretty dependent on his takedown game. If he can’t get the fight to the floor, I expect him to get overwhelm by the speed, power, and overall unorthodox striking style of the Brazilian. Patrick is a little pricey at $10800, but consider Brown has been stopped in 5 of his 8 losses and he is getting this spot based on necessity and not merit- I think there is a real chance that Patrick stops him. Plus keep in mind where this fight is taking place on the card and who of the 2 fighters is more likely to grab the finish. I’ve got Patrick rounding out my #2 lineup.
1. Antonio Carlos Junior -485
2. Alan Jouban -460
3. Alan Patrick -241
4. Johnny Case -107
5. James Te Huna -245
6. Richard Walsh +100
7. Bec Rawlings +108
8. Hector Lombard +105
9. Chad Laprise -112
10. Frank Mir +145
11. Rin Nakai +138
12. Mark Eddiva +186
1. Frank Mir +145
2. Richard Walsh +100
3. Bec Rawlings +108
4. Hector Lombard +105
5. Rin Nakai +138
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. I am either already betting on the dog (6) or the fight is lined very closely (2) or I don’t see any value in what is left over. No Counter Bets.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Content.
Frank Mir/Mark Hunt Total Rounds Over 1.5 +110
Everyone is expecting this fight to end inside the distance- which is understandable. It probably will, but I see value in the Over here. Prior to knocking out Bigfoot, Hunt had gone to the second round or beyond in 6 consecutive fights and 8 of his last 9. Of those 8 fights, 5 went 3 rounds or more. Of Mir’s last 4 losses, 3 have come by decision. Of his last 10 bouts, only 3 fights that have ended before the 5-minute mark. Those are some solid numbers favouring the Over. I expect Mir will be cautious when engaging with Hunt early and recognizes that over a 5-round fight he doesn’t need to dominate the opening round and take risks. Hunt will be equally as concerned with hitting the mat with Mir- he will want to limit his mistakes. Play the Over.
Antonio Carlos Junior/Dan Kelly Total Rounds Under 1.5 -152
It isn’t a big returning under, but I still believe it to be playable. Kelly has benefit from so grappling vulnerable opponents. That isn’t what he is facing here. ACJ is very good on the mat and won’t shy away from the fight going there. I expect it could hit the mat, but with ACJ not concerned about the takedown he should be equally as aggressive on the feet and I don’t like Kelly’s chin. He is older, slower, and pretty hittable. While all of Junior’s pro finishes have come by sub, he did have a pair of 1st round TKO victories on his TUF season. I see him getting the early finish here. Play the Under or leave this fight off your betting card.
James Te Huna/Steve Bosse Total Rounds Under 1.5 -187
This play is very similar to the one above. Not a huge return, but far better then betting a side. Either Play the Under or nothing in this fight. Both guys will look to finish and both guys can be finished. Te Huna could have enough ring rust that Bosse could jump on him early and take him out. Or, Bosse may see that his debut loss wasn’t a fluke and he isn’t capable of fighting at this level. Play the Under.
Alan Jouban/Brendan O’Reilly
See Betting Scenario Section.
Daniel Hooker/Mark Eddiva Total Rounds Over 2.5 -137
Since coming to the UFC, both guys have been a part of fights that have ended inside the distance. Hooker has a pair of wins and Eddiva a loss. Hooker is tough as nails, so I don’t expect to see him getting finished. I have Eddiva winning so you do the math. Both guys have a number of quick finishes early in their careers, but since moving to the UFC they have hit that wall that comes with facing higher level competition. Eddiva has gone the distance in 2 of his 3 UFC contests, and Hooker 2 of 4. I like the Over.
Rin Nakai/Leslie Smith Total Rounds Under 2.5 +179
If you don’t feel comfortable betting Nakai, but still want some bang for your buck related to this fight- then have I got a car…er bet for you. Play the under in this fight. If Smith keeps this fight standing she has a massive striking advantage and the type of volume and pace that will overwhelm Nakai. She finished Duke in a similar fashion. If the fight hits the ground, I know Smith comes from a strong grappling camp- but Nakai can finish. She has 6 submission wins and multiple ground based TKO victories. If she can take Smith down, look for her to land some decent top position strikes and start looking for subs. The value makes this play worth a shot.Ross Pearson/Chad Laprise
See Betting Scenario Section.
Alan Patrick/Damien Brown
See Betting Scenario Section.