UFN 84: Silva vs Bisping- ‘Count Down, but Not Out’
The first foray beyond American borders for the Ultimate Fighting Championships featured a clash of long-time Middleweight elite clinging to their spots in the ranks. The fight was an epic 5-round battle, but was certainly not without controversy. More on that later. After back to back finishes to start the card, 10 of the next 11 fights ended by decision. Some were very entertaining bouts, some not so much. I finished the card with a solid 10-3 record, ending a slump of that saw me finished below .500 on 4 of the last 5 fights outside of North America. The Bet Packs produced nicely, winning 110 units between my top 2 parlays along with a pair of high scoring DraftKing’s lineups. You can see everything posted below. Let’s take a look at the top Winners and Losers from London and who they should face next.
Bisping has been asking for this fight for years, and while the belt wasn’t on the line Silva still represents the biggest victory of his career. I had criticized how the Brit had handled other big name opponents like Henderson, Belfort, and Rockhold. Against Silva, he wasn’t intimidated, took the fight to the former champ, and kept coming.
I scored rounds 1, 2, and 4 for Bisping agreeing with the 48-47 that all 3 judges awarded him. I had no issue with the scenario that played out at the end of the round three, you have to protect yourself at all times.
Bisping looked as good as we have seen in a while, but he was defeated by the current champ in pretty decisive fashion. It might be considered a step backward, but a fight with the winner of Henderson/ Machida would make sense next.Gegard Mousasi
He won the fight in a pretty one-sided effort, but it was far from impressive. Mousasi stated after the fact that he fought the way he did to avoid getting caught again like he did against Hall. That is not going to win him a lot of fans, but he needed win to avoid slipping further down the ranks. Derek Brunson is coming off a decent win and seems like the type that would push him, let’s do that fight next.Brad Pickett
I thought he lost the fight, getting the worst of the first two rounds. Pickett came on strong in the final frame, but it should not have been enough. Nonetheless, it was a win that was badly needed and apparently kept him from retiring. Pickett versus Takeya Mizugaki sounds right to me, even with Mizugaki coming off a pair of losses.Francisco Rivera
He lost the fight, but should not have. He still represented himself well and did it as an injury replacement. He should be booked as a winner for his next fight, Jimmie Rivera would be a good next fight.Grant, Allen, & Askam
All three looked good in victory, Askham’s win was the most violent but also came on the heels losing almost the entire first round. Grant versus Rob Font, Allen against Charles Rosa, and Askham fighting Oluwale Bamgbose would make for some decent fights.Packalen & Teymur
Both had fantastic finishes. Packalen’s shut his down very quickly and Teymur won a strong first round before putting the stamp on his opponent in round 2. Grappler versus striker, Finland versus Sweden, I wouldn’t mind seeing these two square off in their next outing.
The former Champion fought from the onset of the fight like he was only interested in a highlight reel finish, which he almost got. He allowed Bisping to outwork and got behind on the scorecards very quickly. Whether because of age, ring rust, or a combination of both- Silva wasn’t able to score the stoppage that he sought and paid for it.
The flying knee was a thing of beauty and got him right back in the fight, but his attempt to sell the win and sit on the cage after being told by the officials to get down reeked of desperation. I hoped he would come out and finish the final two rounds strong, but he didn’t do enough in the fourth to deserve the nod.
On the positive side, his cardio looked good in the second half of the fight. I would expect to see him back in the cage sooner rather than later. A fight with Dan Henderson after the Machida bout would be worth seeing and give him a chance to rebuild his focus.Thales Leites
He lost to Bisping in a very competitive fight, this one was anything but close. With back to back defeats the momentum that he had created for himself is all but gone. He can still be a solid test for guys looking to break into the upper echelon, but this fight clearly showed where his ceiling is.
Leites could take on another formerly streaking fighter in CB Dollaway next.Marlon Vera
‘Chito’ looked like a school boy who had been caught cheating on test when Marc Goddard was scolding him for grapping the inside of his Grant’s glove. He took both a physical and verbal beating all in one fight.Chris Dempsey
Dempsey has been KOed violently in 3 of his 4 UFC bouts. He can no longer hold onto the ‘perfect’ record at Middleweight and will most likely be fighting elsewhere next time around.Norman Parke
Another loss in pretty bland fight. That is not all his fault as Khabilov was far from electric in his efforts. Parke slipped way down on this card and this might be the last straw for the TUF: Smashes Winner.Omielanczuk & Danho
This was a pretty brutal fight. Usually most lower level Heavyweight bouts that don’t end inside the first half of the fight aren’t received well. The end only further how bad things were getting. It was pretty clear that Danho was looking for a way out. Both men will see future UFC action simply because the division is so shallow, but their leashes are short. Still better than Kimbo versus Dada 5000.Final Thoughts
For a card with 10 decisions, it could have been a lot worse. Anderson Silva’s performance was great at points, but more frustrating than anything. If he has any intention of earning a title shot he has to remained focused and aggressive from start to finish. That could prove difficult. Despite picking against Bisping, I enjoyed watching his performance and then how grateful he was after the win. If he fails to win or even fight for the title this will go down as the high point of his career.
Personally, I was happy with my performance, a lot of favourites won, but there were still some close fights to pick. Take a look at the Bet Pack posted below and if I remember correctly I believe there is a pretty big fight coming up next week. Let’s get ready for that.
Selection 1: Davey Grant $1.57
Selection 2: Brad Pickett $2.61
Selection 3: Scott Askham $1.30
Selection 4: Daniel Omielanczuk $1.87
Price: $9.97 x Bet: 7 units
Selection 1: David Teymur $1.67
Selection 2: Thibault Gouti $1.81
Selection 3: Tom Breese/Keita Nakamura Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.58
Selection 4: Chris Dempsey/Scott Askham Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.32
Price: $11.09 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 66.54 units
Selection 1: Yaotzin Meza $4.04
Selection 2: Anderson Silva $1.37
Price: $5.54 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 27.7 units
Selection 1: Anderson Silva/ Michael Bisping Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.37
Selection 2: Davey Grant to Win by Submission $3.50
Selection 3: Krzysztof Jotko to Win by Decision $2.35
Price: $19.50 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 117 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Lineup #1 =================================================== Fighter 1: Tom Breese $11400 Fighter 2: Brad Pickett $9000 Fighter 3: Makwan Amirkhani $10200 Fighter 4: Scott Askham $10600 Fighter 5: Yaotzin Meza $8500 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Lineup #2 =================================================== Fighter 1: Anderson Silva $10800 Fighter 2:Brad Pickett $9000 Fighter 3: Davey Grant $10500 Fighter 4: Daniel Omielanczuk $9600 Fighter 5: David Teymur $10000 =================================================== Salary Remaining:
*With 13-fights and an early start for this event my breakdowns will be susinct and directly to the point.
Anderson Silva $1.37 vs Michael Bisping $3.39
We are going to switch things up a little and start at the top. Bisping needs a career defining win, but I don’t see him getting it here. Silva took some shots in the Diaz fight, but I don’t see him as having lost a step or at least as much of one as everyone else is suggesting. I like Anderson here mainly because of how Bisping traditionally fights dangerous strikers and how he will react to getting tagged. That being said, if Bisping can remain busy, mix in some takedowns and outwork Silva that is his best path to victory. At this price, with some lingering concerns, I am going to pass on betting a side here. Silva could add a little pop to your parlay, but I plan to have most of my major investments in books when this fight starts.
I see Anderson finishing Bisping inside the opening round, possibly quicker. The threat of getting knocked out really impacts the Brit’s performance, it is almost as if he is waiting to get hit. Anderson’s typical antics will further mess with his head. I have a plan for my #1 squad, but it does not include Silva. At $10800 he is a little pricey, but compared to the other fighter’s in his immediate price range he stands the best chance for a stoppage and is actually $1-200 cheaper. The Spider is a play for my #2 team.
Gegard Mousasi $1.33 vs Thales Leites $3.69
I have similar concern with Mousasi. The value or risk/reward is simply not there. This is his fight to win, but Leites has the ability to offer more trouble than this line would suggest. He is a top level grappler and that has been an issue for Mousasi in the past and if Thales works his top game in cohesion with some effective flurries on the feet he could steal a decision. I prefer to sit back and watch this fight then actually bet a side. I will consider the total though.
No fantasy play here as Mousasi is way too expensive for a fight that could easily play out with as a low volume decision. He won’t be landing a lot of takedowns and his jab will be his primary weapon. Without a stoppage he will most like struggle to reach the 65 point plateau. Not the return needed for your investment.
Tom Breese $1.11 vs Keita Nakamura $9.12
Breese should win this fight, but Nakamura is almost a must-play at this absurd price. He is a long time vet and if he can get Breese’s back or even get him on the mat he is dangerous. There is also the question regarding Breese’s status in longer fights. How will he hold up if he can’t get the early finish. No Play on the Brit, small investment on Keita if you have the leftover cash. The Total is a must play here, I’ll post it in the prop section per usual.
Breese is the biggest item on the shelf at $11400. At $11400 he needs to produce and I think he can. He has a track record for finishing early and the defensive woes of Nakamura will give him that opportunity. The key is surrounding him with a solid team despite badly diminishing your budget, I think I have done that. Breese is on the top team.
Brad Pickett $2.61 vs Francisco Rivera $1.57
This is one of those fights I was able to breakdown before the odds were posted or at least before I saw them. I favoured Pickett from the start. In addition to fighting at home and with a full camp, he is the more diversified fighter. Rivera hits hard, but he struggled at times with the type of offense that Pickett can produce. The pressure of the Brit will only add to it. Pickett looked good in his last fight against Almeida, which was a tough return to BW. I have Pickett in my Silver parlay. He is flawed and River has the ability to put anyone away that he hits, but Pickett offers more, is in a better situation, and presents a similar to style that has troubled Rivera before. Watch for a rising hook from either side to land with significant implications.
Bottom line is that Pickett is cheap and he knows how to finish. Rivera can be finished, whether by submission or knockout it is there to have. The $9000 price tag makes Pickett an inclusion in both of my lineups.
Makwan Amirkhani $1.56 vs Mike Wilkinson $2.64
I had Amirkhani somewhere around the $1.40 mark. I simply haven’t been impressed with Wilkinson, even in victory. Amirkhani’s aggressive attack should translate to a stoppage win or at earning a rare decision by outworking Wilkinson. With the value gained between the actual line and how I lined the fight, I have Amirkhani in my top parlay.
I also have ‘Mr. Finland’ in my #1 DK lineup. It goes without saying that he is a finish first fighter and has a history of doing so both and pre and post-UFC debut. Even if he can’t finish his takedowns and aggressive submission attack will score him points over the duration of a decision. At just $10200, he has a potential to score some significant points and his price tag still makes it plausible to use him and Breese on the same team without picking 3 long shots to go with them.
Davey Grant $1.57 vs Marlon Vera $2.64
I am not nearly as down on Vera as many are and feel he has the abilities and physical layout that could be molded into a pretty decent fighter. The unfortunate thing is, Grant is better at what Vera does well. Grant hits harder and is more cohesive with his attack. On the mat, he is a stronger transitional fighter and isn’t going to give up top position once he either takes it or is given it by Vera on a sub attempt. The layoff is a massive concern which is troubling for the Grant camp. Keep in mind, this is his first fight after his TUF run which can lead to a significant leap in capabilities as he takes his new skills home and really rounds them out. I had Davey boy in my Gold parlay, but the layoff leaves too much of a question mark. Had it just been a year or a little more, I could swallow that, but at 2+ years that is a long time to be away from the game. Silver Parlay.
Grant is known for his finishing ability and the opportunistic manner in which he can transition from a scramble to an armbar or other sub attempt should be a nice foil for Vera’s activity on the mat. Whether through an early finish or prolonged series of takedowns and position advancements, coupled with striking volume- Grant will produce. At $10500, he joins the former Middleweight champion and ‘One-Punch’ on my #2 team.
Chris Dempsey $3.99 vs Scott Askham $1.30
Dempsey’s win over Eddie Gordon is losing a lot of it significance. At LHW, he has been trashed- thoroughly. If he can consistently get on the inside of Askham and grind him into the cage and/or take him down that is his key to victory. He got hit a lot by Gordon when implementing this strategy, and I feel Askham as the ability to do more damage. He is also the more capable striker when compared to ‘Truck’. Askham will land something either at range, when Dempsey is closing the distance, or even inside when clinched up. Even before the knockouts started flowing in for Dempsey, I wasn’t a big fan of how he deal with getting hit while competing on the regional level. That shows up here. At $1.30 there isn’t a lot profit to make off of the Brit. I might consider him as a Silver option but simply leaving him off the card altogether isn’t a terrible plan either. He wins in most scenarios, but I would like his price to be a little higher.
He is my 3rd and final DK favourite added to Team #1. He can finish and has a number of them on his record, Dempsey can be finished. It is a good combo and he isn’t nearly as expensive as fighters facing better competition. Sign him up!
Arnold Allen $1.32 vs Yaotzin Meza $4.04
Meza is a heavy dog here. Allen is young and has room to improve, but I wasn’t impressed with his debut. He lost the 1st two rounds, before scoring the 3rd round submission. His success is predicated on his grappling skills and Omer took them away from him. For all his faults, Meza is a decent grappler. Whether on top or bottom, he is active and will force Arnold to work hard. At this price, I have Meza in a Bronze level Single bet, possibly pairing him up with Anderson to add a little value. Something I didn’t anticpate when I looked at Silva originally.
Meza is what makes my #1 lineup work within the team budget. His low price of just $8500 counter balances the money spent on Breese at the top of the lineup. Other fighters at this pay grade are facing far more seasoned and accomplished opposition. Unless Meza gets stopped very quickly, he should still succeed in putting up points comparable to his cost. If he pulls off the upset and adds between 50-65 points that is a major bonus.
Krzysztof Jotko $1.63 vs Bradley Scott $2.48
Either Scott scores the finish or Jotko grinds and outworks him for a decision. Those are the two most likely scenarios. Jotko did get stopped by Cedenblad, but that is it for his career. Scott has traditionally been a slow starter and the grinding work of Jotko will make a bad start hard to overcome. I think there is some decent value in the Polish fighter. He has shown improvements in each fight and if he comes out stronger again here he should get the better of Scott everywhere. Jotko makes the cut in my top play.
No Fantasy Play as I feel a finish is unlikely. Better places to spend your money.
Rustam Khabilov $1.44 vs Norman Parke $3.15
Khabilov is getting buried after a pretty lackluster performance in his last fight and Parke is right there with him. I gave a lot of thought to Parke pulling off the upset here, but didn’t pull the trigger because I felt I was reaching with my reasonings. I try to avoid that as much as possible. Most likely if Parke wins this fight it will be based on Khabilov not fighting up to his potential more than what Parke does. For that reason, I think a counter bet is a playable option to hedge my gold play. I see Khabilov better everywhere and with the layoff and poor performance he will come out looking to rebuild his momentum. Parke has had trouble with opponents that hit harder and can shut down his grappling- see Tibau and Trinaldo. The Russian makes my Gold parlay as the third and final leg.
No Fantasy Play here, I doubt we see a finish so the return for money spent isn’t going to be there. $10700 should get you somewhere between 70-100 pts, I think we could come in between 50-65 points with limited grappling success and average volume from Rustam.
Daniel Omielanczuk $1.87 vs Jarjis Danho $2.10
New Heavyweights are always a big question mark considering the lack of depth in the division. Omielanczuk is undersized and takedown prone, but I don’t think Danho has the ability to capitalize on those factors. If Danho can’t get the early stoppage I anticipate him slowing down after his initial bursts. Even though he looks like he had alright cardio, Octagon jitters can wreak havoc especially on someone so muscular. Omielanczuk is more proven both in the UFC and overall, with a lot more experience. He started as the dog, which probably had a lot to do with the size and overall look of Danho, but once people started to compare skill sets things are shifting away from the big man. Still at HW, it can be one-punch and “aw fuc…” Silver Parlay leg.
Omielanczuk is the betting fav after opening as the dog, but he remains the dog on the DK board. That gives us a little value and he certainly can finish which makes that number even more enticing. Unfortunately, I can’t fit him into my #1 lineup so he gets the call to the secondary team.
Teemu Packalen $2.13 vs Thibault Gouti $1.81
Striker vs grappler, sort of. Gouti would take on the part of the striker, but he has more submission wins than knockouts. Packalen has to get an early submission or he is going to be in trouble. He lacks the wrestling to put himself in a position to grapple and if gives up position way to easily. I see Gouti being a more adept grappler then Lebout who was able to hold of the Finn. Still, Gouti is making his debut (excluding TUF) so he slips down to a Bronze level simply because he don’t know how he will perform at this level.
No Fantasy Play
David Teymur $1.67 vs Martin Svensson $2.74
I didn’t realize that Teymur was on the card when I watched his TUF fight with Gouti in prep for that prediction. I was impressed with what he brought to the table. Svensson is a capable grappler and there is certainly potential for him to find success on the mat against Teymur. That being said, Teymur is a violently smooth striker both at distance and in the clinch. His size advantage and the impact of his strikes against a natural Featherweight should carry well. Still at just 4 pro bouts I can’t put a lot of faith in him for a big bet. I have Teymur along with Gouti in my Bronze parlay along with a prop bet or 2.
Teymur is my final entry on the #2 squad. With $10100 left in the bank, Teymur just fits under the wire. I see a finish as a real possibility here compared to other fighters that are available for the same cash value. Welcome to the team.
1. Tom Breese $1.11
2. Anderson Silva $1.37
3. Makwan Amirkhani $1.56
4. Gegard Mousasi $1.33
5. Krzysztof Jotko $1.63
6. Rustam Khabilov $1.44
7. Davey Grant $1.57
8. Scott Askham $1.30
9. Brad Pickett $2.61
10. Daniel Omielanczuk $1.87
11. David Teymur $1.67
12. Thibault Gouti $1.81
13. Yaotzin Meza $4.04
1. Brad Pickett $2.61
2. Krzysztof Jotko to Win by Decision $2.35
3. Yaotzin Meza $4.04
4. Daniel Omielanczuk $1.87
5. Thibault Gouti $1.81
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Keita Nakamura $9.12- Breese looks legit, but at this price if you have the extra cash a small bet isn’t a bad idea.
2. Norman Parke $3.15- Long layoff for Rustam, the last fight took some of his shine off. Parke offers a nice hedge play for the my #1 parlay.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Info.
David Teymur/ Martin Svensson
See Betting Scenario Section.
Teemu Packalen/Thibault Gouti
See Betting Scenario Section.Daniel Omielanczuk/ Jarjis Danho Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.37
Omielanczuk is coming off a 1st round finish, his 1st in 5 fights. On his career, he has stopped 12 opponents, with 9 coming under the 1.5 round mark. I think Danho will play a big role in the Under no matter who gets finished. I expect him to come out aggressively and look to make a statement in his debut. That could lead him to getting the stoppage or it could result in him walking directly into a big shot from Dan-O. Either way, with a relatively inexperienced HW that has power making his debut I like the Under.
Krzysztof Jotko to Win by Decision $2.35
This line varies, but even at its lowest point it is sitting at $2.19 which is a solid bet. Jotko has gone the distance in 10 of his 16 wins, including 5 straight and 6 of his last 7. Scott isn’t a fighter known for going the distance with an 0-2 record on the scorecards, but he has only been finished once. That stoppage defeat came 3 fights into his pro career. He is durable and should be able to survive with the position over submission grinder for the full 15. Survive to a decision Yes. Win a decision No.
Chris Dempsey/Scott Askham Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.32
Askham has 10 stoppages in 12 wins, 8 in the first round. Of those 8 stoppages, only 1 has transpired over his 8 fights. I still think he gets it done here. Dempsey has been stopped twice, very early in both fights. They both took place at LHW, but Askham is a big man hits hard. Conversely, Dempsey gets hit a lot and as mentioned in my prediction doesn’t react well to getting clipped. Askham hurts him early and puts him away shortly after that.
Davey Grant to Win by Submission $3.50
I know Grant has been out of action for a while, but I think this line is a bit of a gift. He has won 8 of his 9 wins by submission and both of his wins on the show came by sub as well. Vera will engage him on the mat which will increase his chances of catching something. Vera will also take risks, which could work in his favour or create an opportunity for Grant to lock something up. Vera has never been subbed, but looking at his last 4 opponents- none have dominant submission numbers. Solid play.
Makwan Amirkhani/Mike Wilkinson
See Betting Scenario Section.
Tom Breese/Keita Nakamura Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.58
Breese by knockout is also a solid play and actually makes as much sense if not more. Both plays pay in the same range. ‘Win by (T)KO’ give Breese the entire fight to win- but if he can’t put Nakamura way early he may slow down and not be able to do it late. The Under 1.5 keeps Nakamura’s submission skills on your side. Either way, I like both plays.
Tom Breese to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $1.51
Gegard Mousasi/ Thales Leites Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.50
Both men can finish, but I don’t see this fight playing out like that. Leites will be looking to pull rush Mousasi and Gegard will want to jab and counter. He will also want to avoid making mistakes that could put Leites in top position. There decision numbers don’t jump off the page, but both are tough to finish. Play the Over.
Anderson Silva/ Michael Bisping Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.37
Bisping doesn’t have the wrestling to threaten Silva like Weidman did. He scores some of his takedowns in the clinch, which is a mistake against Silva. Look for Silva to clip him early and once Bisping gets hurt he will fight scared. I like Bisping, but this does not end well for him. Play the Under.