UFN 83: Cerrone vs Oliveira- ‘If you want to get hurt, I know a guy’

I wrote this...

Injuries and withdrawals may have marred the card, but UFC Fight Night 83 still had its moments. The event featured 7 finishes, a controversial decision, and a couple of really fun fights. In the main and co-main event, Donald Cerrone made a successful move to Welterweight, albeit against another natural Lightweight and Derek Brunson picked up another win to run his win streak to 4. Overall, I went 6-7 with  5-2 run over the final 7-fights. The Bet Pack didn’t produce, but it can be seen below along with my UFN recap . Here is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from Sunday night.

The Good
  • A brutal head kick finish earn Oluwale Bamgbose another 1str round finish and his inaugural UFC win. Oluwale might be incredibly unorthodox and awkward, but he hits like a hammer. A big one.
  • With the competency of the judges already in question, Sean Strickland took them out of the equation with a last minute stoppage of Alex Garcia. I have Strickland ahead on my scorecard, but there is a real possibility the judges (at least 2 of them) had a guy in the 3rd row winning the fight.
  • Non-stop action in the Lightweight division opened the main card. James Krause put together one of his best performances through the first 2 round and earned a solid decision win despite the late rally from his Canadian counterpart.
  • Clearly with the crowd behind him Cody Garbrandt picked up his 2nd UFC knockout and hopefully preserved the possibility for the fight with Lineker to be re-booked ASAP.
  • He was on the defensive early, but once the opening presented itself, Donald Cerrone locked up a beautifully executed mounted triangle. If he plans to stay at Welterweight there are a lot of good fights to be made, including his original opponent for this fight Tim Means.
The Bad
  • Anthony Hamilton used a takedown heavy game plan in his last win and his opponent got beat on the floor. Yet, Hamilton opted to stand and trade on the feet and lost a decision to Shamil Adburalhimov
  • The mileage has clearly taken its toll on Joe Riggs and it is time for him to walk away from the MMA game. Chris Camozzi gets a massive win and has now won back to back fights.
  • After the pace of the fight started to set in, Dennis Bermudez easily pulled away from Kawajiri’s one-note offense.
The Ugly
  • Lauren Murphy might have been seconds away from losing a decision, but was able to smash her opponent into a bloody pulp for a last second stoppage. A gritty win for a gritty fighter.
  • The judging in the Evans-Smith/Reneau fight deserves a category all of its own. It was beyond ugly. How two judges could award the opening round to AES is a joke.
  • The first punch didn’t end the fight and neither did the next 38, but eventually Derek Brunson was able to convince the referee that he had done enough to warranted a stoppage. That is three consecutive 1st round stoppages for Brunson, time for a step up in competition. How about the winner of Leites vs Mousasi.
Final Thoughts
  • The card was good and once the dog stopped barking I was able to get a few wins. The disappointing decision between Reneau/AES hurts, but at 6-7 I continue my trend of ups and downs. This was a down, next week we head to London for UFN 84. I have traditionally struggled with these ‘daytime’ shows, time to make some changes to my approach and see what happens?

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Donald Cerrone $1.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: MARION RENEAU $1.58 
Selection 3: DANIEL SARAFIAN $1.55 
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Price: $3.34 x Bet: 10 units
Payout: 33.4 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: ANTHONY HAMILTON $2.00 

Selection 2: ANTHONY SMITH $1.77 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: CODY GARBRANDT $1.31 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: 4.64 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 32.48 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Shane Campbell $2.20 
Selection 2: SEAN STRICKLAND $1.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: JONAVIN WEBB $1.42 
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Price: $5.97 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 41.79 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Joe Riggs $3.31 
Selection 2: SEAN STRICKLAND $1.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: DANIEL SARAFIAN/ OLUWALE BAMGBOSE Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.70 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Donald Cerrone/Alex Oliveira Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.90 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $20.43 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 102.15 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: KELLY FASZHOLZ $4.10 
Selection 2: Donald Cerrone $1.36  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $5.58 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 27.9 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: ANTHONY SMITH/ LEONARDO GUIMARAES Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.25 
Selection 2: ANTHONY HAMILTON $2.00 
Selection 3: Shane Campbell $2.20 
Selection 4: Derek Brunson/Roan Carneiro Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $17.82 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 106.92 units

 

Draftkings Line up

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Lineup #1
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Fighter 1: Kelly Faszholz $8500 
Fighter 2: Daniel Sarafian $10400  
Fighter 3: Joe Riggs $8900 
Fighter 4: Derek Brunson $11100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Donald Cerrone $10600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Lineup #2
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Fighter 1: Anthony Hamilton $9600 
Fighter 2: Marion Reneau $10300 
Fighter 3: Anthony Smith $10200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Shane Campbell $9300 
Fighter 5: Donald Cerrone $10600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining: 

ANTHONY HAMILTON $2.00 vs SHAMIL ABDURAKHIMOV $1.89  

I don’t think that Abdurakhimov is nearly as bad as his debut suggests. In fact, I felt he was doing pretty well in his debut right up until Timmy put him on his back. Hamilton’s chin is a major concern, even more so considering Shamil is a capable counter striker. If he can line up Hamilton when he charges forward and fire off a big counter it could be a major derailment for the ‘Freight Train’. Conversely, Hamilton’s commitment to his wrestling in his last fight should appear once again here and lead him to victory. He has a sparkling record after the first round and it has a lot to do with his ability to force his opponent to carry his weight. Johnson mounted Shamil with almost no resistence and even if Hamilton can gain that type of advantage early, I expect him to eventually mount an exhausted foe and pound him out. At $2.00 we are getting some value on Hamilton. There are always concerns when backing a HW that one punch could wreck your night, but I feel Hamilton’s skill set will negate what Abdurakhimov does best.

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At $9600, Hamilton is a solid add to your DK lineup, especially considering some of the heavier favs at the top of the card. While a 1st round finish could happen, especially if Shamil gives up mount so easily, I am looking more towards a 2nd or even 3rd round stoppage. Combined with takedowns and top position strikes, that could still produce between 70 and 90 points which is a solid total for anyone costing you under $10000. I put some consideration into playing him in my #1 team, but I dropped him back to team #2 to make my budget work for some big hitters on my #1 squad.

KELLY FASZHOLZ $4.10 vs LAUREN MURPHY $1.31 

Faszholz jumps into my Top 10 for biggest upsets based on odds with a win here. I will be watching the weigh-ins closely to see how she looks. She fought at 145 in her last fight and doesn’t have a tonne of time to make weight for this bout. If all systems are go, I think she can pull this fight out. I haven’t see enough out of Murphy to believe she warrants this big of a nod as the favourite. They do a lot of the same things, but Faszholz seems to do them with more conviction and works to finish more then Murphy does. Still, this is a big dog we’re looking at with a lot of red flags. As a result, I can’t go any higher then a Bronze bet, most likely a single play here.

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Kelly is one of the most inexpensive fighters on the card at just $8500. She has finished all 3 of her pro wins and will be looking to put up some points here. By employing her at such a low price it creates extra cash to buy the big hitters at the top of the card. I’ve got her on DK team #1.

MARION RENEAU $1.58 vs ASHLEE EVANS-SMITH $2.65  

I love this line. AES is a capable wrestler, but she doesn’t have the additional offensive weapons to fall back on if she can’t outwrestle Reneau. I like the damage that Reneau can do in the clinch, which is a position that Evans-Smith will default to if she can’t score the takedown. At distance, it should be all Marion with crisper technique, greater volume, and more impactful strikes. AES really struggled through her final 5 fights as an amateur fighter and while she turned it around to start her pro career, the step up in competition could send her into another tailspin. Considering that Reneau is coming off a respectable performance versus the champ, I expect to see that experience pay dividends. I have Marion at this price in my #1 Gold parlay.

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Reneau isn’t a bad price at $10300 and considering she has shown herself capable of finishing opponents the points are there to be had. Just as important, AES can be finished and has been finished multiple times by submission. Even if she gets a takedown, Reneau can operate off her back and submitting Andrade is no easy accomplishment. I have Reneau joining Hamilton on my #2 squad.

JONAVIN WEBB $1.42 vs NATHAN COY $3.35 

Coy is a grinder, but it would appear that his ability to endure punishment isn’t what it use to be. Even more concerning is his submission defense. In his last fight, he was facing an opponent known for his striking. Most experts felt that if Coy was able to take the fight to the mat he would be in the driver’s seat. Instead, he got submitted almost instantly. Webb is a very capable grappler and will attempt a variety of submissions, making him unpredictable and difficult to defend against. If Coy tries to take him down I see him struggling to control Webb and put on the defensive for the majority of the fight. This will take away the most important aspect of Coy’s offense. On the feet, Webb showed serviceable skills over a 10-month break a young fighter should further improve that aspect of his game. I felt he deserved the win over Noke, but coming off that first official loss can do a lot for an opponent. At this price, I certainly considered moving Webb into my top parlay. I am leaning more towards a Silver play simply because of the layoff, Webb is still a relatively young fighter, and this is just his 2nd UFC bout.

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No Fantasy Play.

ANTHONY SMITH $1.77 vs LEONARDO GUIMARAES $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This will be the 4th time I have predicted a fight involving Smith. I’m 2-1 so far. He got a very rough draw in both his final Strikeforce bout and first UFC fight against a pair of elite grapplers in Gracie and Neto. He has a strong skill set, capable of fighting both on the mat and the feet. The big knock on Smith is his mounting pile of defeats by stoppage. A number of those losses came early in his career and getting subbed by the two men listed above is nothing to be ashamed of. He has pushed past those defeats and his current 7-fight winning streak as been pretty impressive. To be brutally honest, I was not that impressed with Guimaraes. His striking is pretty weak and his wrestling doesn’t breed a lot of confidence. I think his biggest opportunity for success here is to try and survive the early action and hope that the short notice will takes its toll on Smith. I expect Smith to recognize this as well and come out looking to finish, which is par for the course for him. I see Smith having a sizeable striking advantage based on technique, power, and reach. He has a nice straight right and throws some decent high kicks and the way Leonardo hangs his hands low it will create plenty of openings for him to land. Smith will most likely fall into my Silver Parlay, but he could slip to Bronze because of the short notice. It will all depend on where I rank the rest of the card. The total is also worth a look here.

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Smith is a reasonable $10200, especially when you consider that 22 of his 24 wins have come by stoppage- 13 in the first round. Obviously, there is some concern that Smith gets stop early or gasses out and puts up something ugly like 3.5 points- so I will pull him back to my #2 lineup.

DANIEL SARAFIAN $1.55 vs OLUWALE BAMGBOSE $2.70 

Sarafian hasn’t looked that good in recent action. His last win came due to a TKO related injury and I had him behind after the 1st round.  Bamgbose debuted on short notice and got finished in short order. He hits very hard, but his striking technique leaves a lot to be desired. An even bigger problems appears to be his ground game. He offered next to nothing off his back and once Hall cracked him a couple of times he shut down. He is the type of fighter that normally smashes through his opponents and finishes them quickly. When a fighter is unable to replicate that type of success against better competition, it can be a difficult hurdle to get over. Sarafian would be absolutely out of his tree if he doesn’t try to take Oluwale down almost right away. When he fought Mendez, he shot early and submitted him shortly after. I expect something similar for a fighter in desperate need of a legit win. Even if he can’t get the early sub, takedowns and top position pressure will go a long way to slowing Bamgbose down and creating openings for that finish later on. I had Sarafian as a bigger favourite when I initially broke this fight down, so there is value here. I like him in the gold package and the total is certainly worth a look here.

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At $10400, Sarafian is creeping towards the upper echelon of favourites- coming in just under where I expected him to. Similar to his betting line, I think he should be somewhere around the $10600 to $10800 range. Considering the submissions skills of Sarafian, the questionable grappling D of Bamgbose, and the lack of experience in longer fights for Oluwale- I don’t see this fight ending with the judges involved. Between takedowns, GNP, and a 1st or maybe 2nd round finish Sarafian should return between 80 to 100+ points. That is a good return for the price tag and I have him in my top lineup.

SEAN STRICKLAND $1.91 vs ALEX GARCIA $2.00  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really like this fight. Both guys are considered prospects and both have hit stumbling blocks during their time spent in the UFC. Garcia’s success has been entirely centered around the takedown. Can he take Strickland down with consistency and not gas out in the process? I don’t think so. He will most likely land a couple of takedowns early, but as the fight progresses, Strickland will start to defend and get the better of him on the feet. Garcia lacks a strong striking game, beyond his power, to keep Strickland backing up. Sean’s jab is going to give him a lot of trouble when it comes to closing the gap and combined with his lateral movement, it will make Garcia’s wrestling far less effective. Strickland will land more volume and pick up some of his own takedowns once Garcia slows down. I have been toying with the possibility of moving Strickland into the Gold parlay, but I want to keep it to just 3-legs. I don’t see him bumping out my top 3 so he will most likely be my #1 leg in my Silver parlay.

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I considered Strickland as a possible DK add, but I don’t see him finishing Garcia. He will cost you just $9900, but I feel there are a couple of other options that could finish and are cheaper creating the needed wiggle room to add a couple of solid favs.

Shane Campbell $2.20 vs James Krause $1.78 

This fight has a lot of potential and is flying under the radar just a bit. Krause is the better grappler/submission fighter. Campbell is the more impactful striker and should have the edge in technique. Campbell showed his grappling game is far better than we anticipated in the Silverio fight, but Silverio’s faltering cardio probably aided him a bit. I expect to see Campbell landing the better strikes against a fighter who tends to stand in front of his opponent and doesn’t pair his strikes together often enough. He is a world class kickboxer and while Krause is a very good grappler- his wrestling isn’t nearly as strong. Lazaro had similar success shutting down the takedowns and being the more effective striker. Campbell can replicate that success. I still see this fight being very close as I feel they match up quite nicely. I am considering playing 2 3-leg Silver parlays and Campbell will be apart of one of those.

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I have Campbell in my #2 lineup. At $9300, he opens the door to spend some coin on a couple of favourites. I don’t anticipate him picking up a finish, but he should still be able to score between 50-65 points with a consistent striking attacking from start to finish.

Joe Riggs $3.31 vs Chris Camozzi $1.40 

Riggs has a lot of experience, but that experience has taken a toll on his body. He is the better wrestler/grappler, and should be the more capable striker here. Camozzi is durable, but he is quite hittable and can be put on his back with regularity. He has made some questionable decisions in previous bouts, most notably is loss to Bruno Santos where he kept putting himself in positions that lead to takedowns for Santos. If he does that hear and gifts Riggs a couple of takedowns that could be the key to the fight. While Riggs leaves a lot to be desired at this stage of his career I don’t see Camozzi taking him down and Diesel should be the slightly quicker man able to sustain his attack into the final round because he isn’t cutting as much weight. This fight is going to be ugly and has a very good chance of ending in a close split decision if neither man can get the finish. Riggs should not be this big of an underdog to Camozzi, who has the size/ durability advantage and that is it. I can’t trust Riggs with anything more than a Bronze parlay play.

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Riggs comes in at a very affordable $8900. He still has some pop in his hands and is a capable submission fighter against an opponent who has been subbed multiple times. Additionally, he will collect points with takedowns and connections. His potential point value is really wide open. He could score absolutely nothing if he shoots himself in the hand while cleaning his gun again of he could earn a 1st round finish. I have him pegged between 50-70 in most likely scenarios. The winner of this fight could fall into the “did just enough’ category. The reason I have Riggs in my #1 lineup is his price. Compared to most other fighters below $9000 he offers the best chance to win/ score points and still leave money on the table for my big buys later on.

Dennis Bermudez $1.29 vs Tatsuya Kawajiri $4.10 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here on Bermudez. I might look at the total, but I don’t feel he is that far ahead of Kawjairi to warranted this big of a line. Keep in mind he has lost his last 2 fights where he was the favourite. Bermudez’s chin is vulnerable and his submission defense even more so. I will look at the total though.

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No Fantasy Play.

CODY GARBRANDT $1.31 vs AUGUSTO MENDES $4.04 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Late notice change of opponent turns this fight from a bonified bang fest to a clash of grappler vs striker. If Mendes gets him down he has the ability to win this fight, if not, then he will need to catch fire in a bottle. Garbrandt is a talented fighter, but he leaves openings in his striking due to over confidence. That will cost him eventually at this level if he keeps it up. Cody should blow the doors of off Mendes, but I felt he should have stopped Briones and that fight was more competitive than expected. Passing on Cody is probably not the worst idea at such a low price. I made a choice between Cody and Bermudez and based on the quality of oppositon that Bermudez is facing I opted to use Cody as part of my 2 parlay 3 legs Silver section.

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I certainly could look at Cody for my DK lineup, but I went a different direction picking the next fighter on the list over him.

Derek Brunson $1.29 vs Roan Carneiro $4.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here as well. Brunson leaves a lot of openings on the feet that can be exploited if Carneiro can catch him. If he doesn’t knock him out, a submission could follow. Most comparisons stack up in Brunson’s favour so I expect him to win. The total is a better betting option.

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Brunson is the most expensive investment on this card at $11100. I still like him on my #1 squad. He has finished back to back opponents and 3 of his last 4 wins inside the 1st round. Conversely, Roan has been stopped in 6 of his 9 defeats, is undersized, has been out for a year, and at 37 he is getting up there for a Middleweight. All are negative factors that have been questioning his ability to hang with the improving Brunson.

Donald Cerrone $1.36 vs Alex Oliveira $3.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Battle of the Cowboys. The showdown at the O.K. Corral. Simply put Cerrone is better everywhere. The only concern I have for him is the title fight letdown after getting smashed by RDA. Changing divisions could help to alleviate that a bit. Oliveira stepping in on short notice isn’t favourable for him, especially considering his cardio isn’t that great at the best of times. Add in the fact that this is a 5-round fight and his window for victory is small. Cerrone will find success exploiting the defensive openings in Oliveira’s striking and if they go to the mat he will do the same. As a result, Cerrone rounds out my Golden parlay.

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Cowboy is a killer and capable of finishing both on the feet and on the mat. That makes him a must have for your DK lineup. At $10600, he rounds out both of my lineups and has the potential to reach the 100+ point mark against a defensively vulnerable opponent.

 

1. Donald Cerrone $1.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Derek Brunson $1.29 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. DANIEL SARAFIAN $1.55 

4. MARION RENEAU $1.58 

5. CODY GARBRANDT $1.31 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Dennis Bermudez $1.29 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. SEAN STRICKLAND $1.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. JONAVIN WEBB $1.42 

9. ANTHONY SMITH $1.77 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. ANTHONY HAMILTON $2.00 

11. Shane Campbell $2.20 

12. Joe Riggs $3.31 

13. KELLY FASZHOLZ $4.10 

1. SHANE CAMPBELL $2.20 

2. ANTHONY HAMILTON $2.00 

3. JOE RIGGS $3.31 

4. SEAN STRICKLAND $1.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. KELLY FASZHOLZ $4.10 

1. Tatsuya Kawajiri $4.10-  The more I look at this fight, Kawajiri is probably worth a small investment. He pays very well for an experienced fight on a 2-fight winning streak against an opponent that has been upset in back to back fights.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

 

ANTHONY HAMILTON/ SHAMIL ABDURAKHIMOV 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

KELLY FASZHOLZ/ LAUREN MURPHY

See Betting Scenario Section.

MARION RENEAU/ASHLEE EVANS-SMITH Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.90  

Reneau has finished 4 of her last 6 opponents inside the opening round. Holm went the distance with her and  somehow Dufresne managed to endure despite getting lit up on the feet. AES has been finished in all 5 of her pro/am defeats. She has also finished her foe in each of her last 2 wins. Women’s fights trend towards the Over, but both girls are aggressive and should come out swinging.

ANTHONY SMITH/ LEONARDO GUIMARAES Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.25 

The numbers related to this fight make it a mandatory play. Smith has gone the distance 1 time in 35 fights- he either finishes or gets finished. Of those 34 finishes, 29 have come before the 1.5 round mark, including 6 of his last 7. Guimaraes leaves a lot of openings when striking and Smith should be able to capitalize. On the Brazilian’s side, 9 of his 11 wins have come inside the distance- 7 before the midway mark. Numbers are too strong not to make this play.

DANIEL SARAFIAN/ OLUWALE BAMGBOSE Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.70 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This play puts the finishing capabilities of both men on your side. Bamgbose hits extremely hard and has yet to go beyond the 3:30 mark of the opening round in 6 fights. After smashing through all of his pre-UFC competition, the first sign of adversity was too much for him and Uriah Hall put him away pretty quickly. If he can connect on Sarafian he can put him down. Conversely, Sarafian hits pretty hard himself and his grappling game should be more than enough to put Bamgbose away once they hit the mat. Play the Under.

SEAN STRICKLAND/ ALEX GARCIA 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

CODY GARBRANDT/AUGUSTO MENDES Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.63 

I toyed with the possibility of playing the Under here. Cody was a killer on the regional scene with his longest fight going just 32 seconds into round 2. Since making the move to the UFC he has gone to the 3rd round in both fights. That happens a lot of a fighter takes that step up in compeition. Mendes is a dangerous grappler and I anticipate that Cody will want to be very mindful of making a mistake when exchanging to avoid getting put in a bad spot. Mendes can also finish, but 3 of his last 4 wins have gone into the second round. A finish is likely, but 1.5 rounds isn’t enough.

Derek Brunson/Roan Carneiro Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I feel like I repeat myself a lot between my predictions, betting breakdowns, Fantasy analysis, and then the props. I’ve already talked about Brunson’s ability to finish and Carneiro’s history with getting finished. I also won’t rule out the possibility of Carneiro countering Brunson if he gets too aggressive when attacking. What is worth mentioning is the fact that this line is set at 2.5 rounds. I find that a little surprising. I am assuming they are looking at some of Brunson’s previous performances where he used his wrestling. I like the extra round. Hammer the Under.

Donald Cerrone/Alex Oliveira Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.90 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Cerrone has finished his opponent in 20 of his 28 wins. On the flip side of the coin, he has stopped just 1 opponent over his last 5 fights. Keep in mind during that run he has faced the current champ, a former champ, a former Bellator champ, and a pretty decent prospect. I don’t hold Oliveira in the same regard as Donald’s recent competition. As mentioned, he leaves a significant amount of openings in defense and Cerrone should be able to plow right through those holes. Prior to his current stretch, Cerrone finished 5 of 6 opponents in the 2nd round or earlier agaisnt competition more akin to what Oliveira presents. Play the Under.

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