UFN 82: Hendricks vs Thompson- ‘Wonder No More’
In an event that was expected to be headlined by a Heavyweight title fight, instead we were treated to the emergence of a new and dangerous Welterweight contender. ‘Big Country’ went the distance and didn’t lose, Joseph Benavidez won another Flyweight bout that wasn’t for the title, and CM Punk has an opponent set for his MMA debut. I went 8-4 with a couple of nice upset in Lewis and Pyle, the DraftKing’s lineups had a solid return, but a disappoint loss on the Fight Pass Prelims prevented a bigger return from the Parlay section. Let’s take a look at the Winners and Losers from Saturday Night.Winners
Mickey Gall made good on his opportunity to fight CM Punk. Additionally, the manner in which he quickly dispelled his opponent provided limit footage for his Mr. Punk to study and prepare with.
Where the heck did Diego Rivas pull that flying knee out of. Talk about turning a fight around in a hurry!
After a couple of tough setbacks, Justin Scoggins has now won back to back fights and will entering the Flyweight rankings one they are updated. The win over Borg is big, but he most likely needs 1-2 more victories to get his name into the conversation. A rematch with Moraga to get that loss of his record would be a nice first step.
He won’t fight for the title any time soon, but Derek Lewis brings the pain in a big way and beating Grabowski is a nice win.
He will remain a constant test for young fighters looking to make that next step. Mike Pyle is not an easy out for the majority of the division and after a rough start to the fight, he showed a lot of heart to come back and finish Spencer. At 40 years old, with back to back losses, it would have been easy for him to roll over concede victory, but he did just the opposite.
The combination of the sound, visuals, and reaction of Alex Nicholson to the crushing submission of Misha Cirkunov was hard to watch. Nonetheless, the big Latvian-Canadian represents a new injection of talent into the thin Light Heavyweight division, which is much needed.
Zach Makovsky didn’t win, but he gave Joseph Benavidez a fight. ‘Fun Size’ is turning into a solid gatekeeper at Flyweight, while Benavidez remains the division’s Silver Medalist. Benavidez versus Wilson Reis is the fight to make next I believe.
Between GSP and Lawler, Johny Hendricks went a combined total of 15 rounds with the 2 champs- Stephen Thompson needed just 3:31 to knock him out. After his initial attempt to get the fight to the floor, Hendricks looked lost stuck on the outside against a vastly superior striker. Where Hendricks stood toe to toe with Robbie Lawler and traded shots all night long, he had nothing for Thompson. The win vaults the vaunted striker directly into title contention with many calling for his next fight to be for the strap. The manner in which he dispatched Hendricks makes me wonder if the current champion is reining on borrowed time.
Unfortunately for Thompson, there are multiple contenders at Welterweight staking their claim to the next shot at the gold. Between a Condit rematch, the possible return of GSP, Tyron Woodley, and even Demian Maia- Thompson made need to win another fight before his wish is granted. ‘Wonder Boy’ versus ‘The Chosen One’ could serve to clear up a little bit of the congestion.Losers
Artem Lobov is now 0-2 in the UFC and has been badly outclassed in both of his fights. His record is below .500 and he should be seeking employment elsewhere for his next fight.
After a dominant round 1, Noad Lahat suffered the second flying knee knockout in his UFC career. Despite his grappling prowess, his chin could be a growing concern going forward.
It is hard to win a fight without throwing a punch. KJ Noons’s vaunted boxing game was painfully absent in the opening round against Burkman and didn’t get it cranked up until it was far too late. KJ could be Bellator bound after this latest poor performance, if he plans to continue his MMA career.
There were a couple of fighters that simply didn’t show up tonight, but unfortunately for Rafael Cavalcante it seems to be an ever increasing trend over his last couple of bouts. Similar to Noons, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Feijao reunited with his former employer Scott Coker very soon.
Joining Feijao and Noons on the list of MIA fisticuffs is Jared Rosholt. He looked gun shy and unwilling to engage for the majority of the fight. His lack of effort resulted in Roy Nelson earning just his 2nd UFC win in a fight to go beyond the first round. After picking up the biggest win of his career, this was a pretty significant setback for Rosholt.Final Thoughts…
Overall it was a decent event, but there certainly where some pretty low points that could have been worse if this was a PPV. Thompson added himself to the already complex Welterweight title scene and Hendricks took a sizeable step back. The Bet Pack Parlays returned 35.22 units, missing out on a strong 75 unit parlay by just 1 leg. The # DK Lineup scored a strong 372.5 points. #1, #2, and #5 on the Value List hit and so did the #1 and #5 Counter Bets, and the Prop bets finished an even 5-5. The entire pack can be seen below. We get another 2-week layoff before the Next UFC event, see you then!
Selection 1: Mike Pyle $2.55
Selection 2: Derrick Lewis $2.30
Price: $5.87 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 35.22 units
Selection 1: Johny Hendricks $1.48
Selection 2: Roy Nelson $1.63
Selection 3: Misha Cirkunov/Alex Nicholson Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.42
Selection 4: Noad Lahat $1.33
Price: $4.56 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 36.48 units
Selection 1: Artem Lobov $1.74
Selection 2: Mike Pyle $2.55
Selection 3: Roy Nelson/Jared Rosholt Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.74
Selection 4: Josh Burkman $1.61
Price: 12.43 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 74.58 units
Selection 1: Misha Cirkunov to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.00
Selection 2: Derrick Lewis $2.30
Selection 3: Johny Hendricks to Win by Decision $2.65
Selection 4: Ovince St. Preux/ Rafael Cavalcante Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.42
Price: $44.25 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 221.25 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Lineup #1 =================================================== Fighter 1: Artem Lobov $9800 Fighter 2: Derrick Lewis $9700 Fighter 3: Misha Cirkunov $11000 Fighter 4: Mike Pyle $9400 Fighter 5: Josh Burkman $10100 =================================================== Salary Remaining: $0 =================================================== Lineup #2 =================================================== Fighter 1: Noad Lahat $10600 Fighter 2: Ray Borg $10500 Fighter 3: Ovince St. Preux $10700 Fighter 4: Derrick Lewis $9700 Fighter 5: Mike Jackson $8500 =================================================== Salary Remaining: $0
Artem Lobov $1.74 vs Alex White $2.73
Over the last year Fantasy MMA has grown in popularity and with it an interesting trend is starting to show up. I have seen on multiple occassions a betting underdog come in as the Fantasy favourite and walk away with the win. Most notably Marquardt over Dolloway and Barroso over Mutapcic. There are currently 2 examples of this scenario on this card. Currently, Kountermove has Lobov at $4700 and White at $4900. This suggests that based on their numbers White is more likely to win the fight. Draftkings has Lobov as the slight favourite, which corresponds greater with the betting line. Also looking at CageRank.com’s assessment of the fight they have White at 75% likely to get the win. What I am assuming is not being taken into account is Lobov’s success on the shot. He picked up 3 impressive knockout wins which are not recorded as official fights and as a result they are unrecorded examples of his progress. Additionally, he looked terrible in his debut. There were some other factors at play there, but overall this is a much better stylistic fight for him. White has tools, but he also has flaws that Lobov can exploit. He leaves his chin up and out when attacking and he will slow down when under pressure. I see Lobov bringing a similar style to what Collard used against White, only with a little more power. Still we need to be mindful of this fight and not get too involved. There aren’t a tonne of great side bets on this card, but I still have Lobo teetering between Silver and Bronze. Under normal circumstances I would probably leave him off altogether- but this isn’t a “Fight Watch Pack” This is a Bet Pack. Silver or Bronze, depending on the rest of my breakdowns.
Considering the number of heavy favourites on this card, putting together a strong 5-man DraftKings roster isn’t easy. With Lobov at $9800 and the combo of his power and White’s questionable chin and subpar striking defense he is on my team. His below $10000 price tag frees up cash for an expensive must-have higher up on this card.
Mickey Gall $1.21 vs Mike Jackson $5.50
This fight is better left alone. With Gall having just a single pro bout and coming in with a line comparable to seasoned UFC vet, there is no point in touching the line here. I will consider Jackson as a possible counter bet at this lofty of a price, although I am convinced that Dana White and company have sifted through the opponent options for Gall in an effort to make him look good to then build towards the Punk fight. Basically, Jackson has been picked to lose. The total is certainly worth looking at here.
Normally I would not look at this fight for a DK roster member, but circumstance is telling me otherwise. My #2 lineup leaves me with 2 options at $8500 or less and of those 2, Jackson is the better bet. He could pull off the upset and even if he can score 15-25 points in a longer fight that will give you a few more to add to the strong top 4 you can afford with his bottom of the barrel price tag.
Noad Lahat $1.33 vs Diego Rivas $3.74
Unless Rivas has taken a sizeable leap in skill, this fight is a step down in competition for Lahat. Backstrom and Siler are more well rounded and more experienced then Diego bar far. Rivas is a grappling oriented fighter. Unfortunately, Lahat is better and capable turning a positive gain made by Rivas into a negative position. Rivas needs takedowns, but he has had some issues holding them once he gets on top. Lahat will exploit that to the utmost. On the feet, Lahat showed improvement in his last fight and should have the edge there as well. Either through submission or prolong dominance on the mat this is Lahat’s fight. At this price he isn’t exciting, but I have him as a bigger fav based on what I have seen. As a result he fills a spot in my top parlay.
I would really like to play Lahat in my DK lineup as I feel he can finish or score a lot of points with takedowns and transitions. Unfortunately, getting under the budget with such a high number of heavy favs isn’t easy. At this point in time I can’t add him to the squad, but I expect him to score between 70-90 points.
*Update, upon further review and by making the decision to take a major underdog- Lahat is on my #2 team.
Ray Borg $1.38 vs Justin Scoggins $3.55
This is going to be a great scrap and I feel the line does not recognize how competitive it could be. Scoggins is multi-faceted and dangerous both on the feet and the mat. That being said, Borg is an absolute monster on the mat. His entries are hard to defend against, his takedowns harder, and once he gets you on the mat you aren’t getting up without a lot of hard work and little luck. Scoggins’s karate-based striking is his key to victory. He has to use his kicks to maintain distance, but in doing so he creates openings for Borg to snag a leg and drag him to the mat. Scoggins has had trouble against capable grapplers and in the brief moment that Sampo was able to put him down- he appeared to slow down in the aftermath on the feet. Against Borg, who carries such a torrid pace- Scoggins could be gasping for air after just a single round of grappling. Borg grappling game is the strongest skill set on either side and it will show up. At this price, I am looking at Borg as a part of a 3-leg Gold parlay along with the previously mentioned Noad Lahat.
Similar to Lahat, Borg is a fantastic DK option, but at $10500, he puts you in a tough spot. As mentioned above, by playing Jackson at $8500- Borg fits on my #2 lineup. A submission finish is certainly a legit possibility and even in a decision his takedowns and high work rate on the mat will put up points.
Derrick Lewis $2.30 vs Damian Grabowski $1.77
We finally get to an underdog pick! Lewis is an extremely flawed fighter, but what he does do- he does quite well. He is an absolute monster in top position and once he starts dropping bombs the finish isn’t far behind. Grabowski is a capable grappler and most people are looking at that and saying he will either a) submit Lewis or b) grind out a decision win. Either of those scenarios aren’t hard to see developing. In the tape that I watched, Grabowski hasn’t had to deal with someone the size of Lewis and more importantly he is too methodical in his approach. Against Garner, he allowed Garner to hold him on ropes with next to no push back. Similarly, when he dropped the title he was too accepting of his position on the mat until it was too late. He also has a tendency of giving up position for submission, if that happens against Lewis there might not be much to come after that. I don’t see a good enough striking advantage on Damian’s part to suggest he can win this fight on the feet and he might even take some damage at distance. It is interesting to note that both DK and KM have this fight at even. Based on their assessments, we are getting some value with Lewis. I am leaning towards pairing him up with Pyle for a 2-leg parlay. in the Silver section, if not then he will be part of a 3-leg play.
At $9700 and with his rate of finishing his opponents, Lewis is a must have for your DK lineup. Obviously, there is the risk of him getting subbed or dominated on the mat for a full 3 rounds and scoring you 6 points- but that exists with anyone. He is one of the few fighters that I really like to win and potentially score you 80 to 110 points while costing you less than $10000. That is a must for this type of card and as a result he fits the bill on both teams.
Josh Burkman $1.61 vs KJ Noons $2.55
I waited on this one to see the weigh-ins and as of right now I haven’t posted my pick yet. I wanted to see if Burkman looked like a walking skeleton. I didn’t think he did. He looked thin, but based on what I saw I expect him to rehydrate nicely. Noons can win this fight 1 of 2 ways. Either he lands a big right hand and knocks him out or he ups his tempo beyond his normal work rate and outpoints Joshua. Considering Burkman has only been knocked out once and Noons is long set in his ways as a fighter- both scenarios are on the low end of likelihood. Burkman will kick and that is big versus Noons. When his opponents are more diverse, he struggles. Burkman will also look for takedowns, which should further discourage Noons and score points for Burkman. He held his own with some pretty solid competition at WW, even in defeat. I was going back and forth on this fight with regard to where I wanted to play it and considering the number of heavy favs and my solid track record picking Noons fights (7-1) I’m going to play Burkman in the Gold section. I put a lot of work into this pick so hopefully effort = results.
Burkman will cost you $10100, which isn’t bad. It is worth noting that KM has Noons as a slight favourite in this fight. Burkman fits perfectly into my final slot on the first roster. With a card like this one, it isn’t easy to pick a 5-man lineup of fighters you actually expect to win. With Burkman I hope for few takedowns and some decent output finishing somewhere around the 60-75 point range. Anything above that is gravy.
Misha Cirkunov $1.13 vs Alex Nicholson $8.50
Clearly we can’t touch the side here. Short of landing something huge or carrying a concealed weapon (I kid) I don’t see Nicholson winning this fight. Cirkunov is a beast in the clinch and equally as dangerous on the mat. Nicholson has struggled to defend the grappling advances against far less skilled competition on the region circuit. Once on the mat it will only be a matter of time. No side bet here, but you can probably see where my total play will be.
At $11000 Cirkunov is the most expensive fighter on the card, but he is worth it. I see him finishing this fight inside the opening round under most scenarios, no later than the first half of round 2 if not. He will score you between 90-110 points with a quick finish. Even without the finish, there will be takedowns, ground strikes, and positional advancements galore to stack up the points. At this price point, he requires you to fill out your team with a couple of “cheap” underdog/ sub $10000 picks. So that is what we are doing.
Mike Pyle $2.55 vs Sean Spencer $1.63
Pyle is getting close to the end of his career and his chin is a major vulnerability. Can Spencer exploit it? I’m not sure. He has dropped a couple of opponents, but he doesn’t have the type of knockout numbers of the guys that have been stopping Pyle. While Spencer’s TDD is decent, he has still been taken down a quite a lot. Pyle has a tricky TD game and he is the type of fighter that knows how to keep his foe on the mat once he gets them there. A lot of Pyle’s offense, whether grappling or striking related is generated in the clinch. This is an area that Spencer has had trouble win. If he can’t create separation, he will be in line for Pyle to either hit or take him down- not to mention his boxing game will become a non-factor. Certainly a submission or knockout is a possibility, but I see this fight ending up in a close decision with Pyle avoiding most of Spencer’s offense and having his way with him in close and on the mat. As previously mentioned, I am considering using Pyle in a 2-leg parlay along with Lewis in the Silver section.
At $9400 and with Cirkunov slurping up a big part of our budget, Pyle is another must have for the #1 lineup. He can score points with a finish, but just as importantly he can score points with takedowns and strikes. KM has Pyle/Spencer at even which tells me we are getting value by both betting him and playing him in our Fantasy lineup. Sign him up.
Joseph Benavidez $1.24 vs Zach Makovsky $4.80
No Play here on Joe, juice ain’t worth the squeeze. I still think he wins it though. Makovsky will give him a fight, it just won’t be enough. The total is certainly worth a look. No Fantasy Play.
Ovince St. Preux $1.27 vs Rafael Cavalcante $4.65
At this point, Feijao is a pretty straight forward fighter. He has serious power, but if he can’t finish the fight early it is all downhill from there. OSP doesn’t have an elite gas tank either which could keep this fight interesting in the later stage. Additionally, his wrestling isn’t that great- but it is good enough to make Cavalcante work. I won’t touch a side bet here, but I will play the total.
At $10700, OSP fits into my #2 squad. He should be able to finish Cavalcante once he tires and that will have him sitting in the 80-90 point range- potentially higher. OSP has finished 7 of his last 8 wins inside the distance and Feijao has been stopped in 4 of his last 5 defeats.
Roy Nelson $1.63 vs Jared Rosholt $2.50
Roy Nelson has an abysmal record outside of the opening round, but he also has one heck of way of preventing his opponent from getting there. People are quick to point at his recent struggles, but keep in mind over his 1-5 run he has faced the current LHW Champ, #2 HW, #3 HW, #8 HW, and #9 HWs. Rosholt hasn’t fought anyone close to that level. Both guys have a clear path to victory; a knockout for Roy and grinding wrestling-based decision win for Rosholt. Nelson is a difficult guy to move around and Barnett had a lot of trouble doing so over their 5 rounds. In fact, it was Nelson that landed 4 takedowns. Rosholt’s wrestling is decent and looked better against Struve, but I see him slowing down after struggling to control Roy. If he can’t consistently wrestle Nelson, he will be forced to trade which he is capable of- but he also can get himself into trouble that way. He leaves his chin up when attacking and gets a little sloppy. Against Johnson, he was so tired in the final round that Timmy almost knocked him out in the final moments of the bout. Roy almost did the same to Overeem. I would not be surprised to see Roy break the trend of post-round 1 struggles and hurt/ finish Jared late. Still with Nelson’s recent struggles, unfavorable age, and 1-note path to victory he slips to the Silver section.
I don’t have Nelson in either of my Lineups, but he does offer us real potential for a 1st round knockout at just $10200. Between him and Burkman I would have taken Roy, but my remaining dollar amount was $10100, $100 short to buy me some big country.
Johny Hendricks $1.48 vs Stephen Thompson $2.90
Main event time. Robin Black made some excellent points when looking at the weight cut for Johny. Yes he made weight and it was easier, but now he is going to be the lighter fighter. Not only will he be lighter, he will be shorter, and have a much shorter reach. He could also be on the wrong end of the strength equation and if he can’t use his wrestling either to augment his attack or as the focal point of his attack- that changes the face of this fight significantly. For those reason and considering that Thompson has been drilling with Weidman, I think Wonderboy is a solid counter bet option. Conversely, if the cut improves his cardio and he can carry his wrestling for the full 5 rounds that does not bode well for Thompson. These odds aren’t bad, but consider the physical advantage that Thompson has and his elite level striking game, Johny falls to my Silver parlay.
No Fantasy selection here.
1. Misha Cirkunov $1.13
2. Noad Lahat $1.33
3. Joseph Benavidez $1.24
4. Ray Borg $1.38
5. Ovince St. Preux $1.27
6. Josh Burkman $1.61
7. Johny Hendricks $1.48
8. Mike Pyle $2.55
9. Derrick Lewis $2.30
10. Roy Nelson $1.63
11. Artem Lobov $1.74
12. Mickey Gall $1.21
1. Mike Pyle $2.55
2. Derrick Lewis $2.30
3. Johny Hendricks to Win by Decision $2.65
4. Misha Cirkunov to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.00
5. Josh Burkman $1.61
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Alex White $2.73- Fantasy MMA favourite, new rule = pick them or counter bet. Parlay White with KJ or a nice little 2-leg hedge.
2. KJ Noons $2.55- See Above.
3. Mike Jackson $5.50- Gall is 1-0 people, 1-0!
4. Jared Rosholt $2.50- Needs to get out of the first round. Prop bet has the Over 1.5 at $1.74; that’s a little discouraging for Roy.
5. Stephen Thompson $2.90- Big Fight Opportunity, elite level striker, training with an elite level wrestler.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Info
Artem Lobov/Alex White
Check Betting Scenario Section.
Mickey Gall/Mike Jackson
Check Betting Scenario Section.
Ray Borg/Justin Scoggins Total Rounds Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.50
Considering how active Borg is on the mat, I could see him wearing out Scoggins and grabbing a sub in the second half of the fight or snapping up something pretty quick during one of the first exchanges. The manner in which Scoggins tapped against Moraga to guillotine that didn’t appear all that deep is concerning. Look for Borg to try something similar on a shot attempt to lock up an RNC once taking his back. Scoggins also has a pretty solid striking game and if he catches Borg coming forward he could knock him out. Play the Under.Derrick Lewis/Damian Grabowski Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.12
This might come as a bit of a surprise considering that these 2 fighters have a combined 30 finishes on their record, but hear me out. Lewis has gone over the 1.5 total in 2 of his last 3 and into the middle round or beyond in all 3. Over his career he has gone Over 1.5 rounds 7 times in 17 fights compared to 6 opening round finishes. Grabowski has been involved in just 2 1st round finishes in his last 10 fights, going over the 1.5 mark 7-times. I expect a bit of a tentative start, with some grappling. Grabowski will be looking to wear him down before trying to grab a sub and Lewis will most likely be on the defensive early until he gets an opportunity to work himself into top position. Heavies and the Over are a risk, but I like the play here.
Josh Burkman/KJ Noons
Check Betting Scenario Section.
Misha Cirkunov/Alex Nicholson Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.42
Cirkunov has finished his opponent in 8 of his 10 wins, 8 inside the first round. He us currently on a streak of 5 consecutive finishes. Nicholson has 5 first round finishes and has never gone over the 1.5 mark in victory. He is also fighting an opponent that is considerably more talented than anyone is has faced to date. I actually feel that Jolly (Misha’s last opponent) matched up better with him than Nicholson does. From what I have seen Nicholson has struggled with less skilled grapplers and has been taken down in each of the fights I saw. The number isn’t flashy, but it can add a little pop to your parlay.
Misha Cirkunov to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.00
If you want a little more bang for your buck then this is your play. He has split his finishes evenly between knockouts and submission. He is a grappler by trade and has subbed 3 of his last 5 opponent, but I see something similar to his last fight. With a submission there is the potential to lose position or possibly burn your arms out with a choke that doesn’t materialize. I see Misha controlling Nicholson, landing strikes and slowly upping the tempo until the ref stops him before he can look for a sub opportunity.
Ovince St. Preux/ Rafael Cavalcante Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.42
Both guys can finish. 27 of their combined 31 wins have ended before the final bell and finishes have accounted for 6 of their combined losses. I still see this fight going into the 2nd half. OSP will recognize the danger that Feijao packs in his hands and will most likely want to wear him down in the clinch and with takedowns. If he does elect to stand with him, he will try to limit the mistakes and not do anything too risky. Feijao has pretty poor track record beyond the opening round and OSP will recognize that. If they do hit the mat, I foresee OSP not wanting to risk losing the position with a sub attempt and Cavalcante is no slouch on the mat either. The Under is a distinct possibility on either side but I like the Over here.
Roy Nelson/Jared Rosholt Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.74
This play does not bode well for my pick of Roy Nelson, but the numbers lean too heavily in favour of the Over. Keep in mind I think this is the fight where Nelson scores a rare win beyond the opening round. Over their last 13 fights, 11 have gone over the 1.5 round mark and 10 of those 11 lasted into the third round or beyond. I expect to see Rosholt trying to grind Nelson into the cage for a large portion of this bout, especially early. If Roy is going to win he will need to catch him with something, but that opportunity might not come until Rosholt starts to slow down in the second half of the fight. Play the Over.
Johny Hendricks to Win by Decision $2.65
This fight could be a very unfortunate grind fest. I struggle to see Hendricks getting into range to land a bomb and take out Thompson. He hasn’t exactly been knocking guys out either with his last 5 fights and 6 of 7 ending by decision. I expect him to look for a wrestling and clinch heavy attack to negate the biggest weapons of his opponent. Johny has lots of experience in 5 round fights, his opponent does not and I expect him to plan to exploit that.