UFN 80 and TUF 22 Finale- ‘They Will Not be Denied’

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The UFC’s triple header of MMA action kicked off on Thursday Night with a fantastic set of fights at UFC Fight Night 80 headlined by Rose Namajunas and Paige VanZant. One night later the Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale went down. The event crowned a new TUF Champion, set up the next challenger for the Featherweight title and played host to a Fight of the Year candidate and the coming out of a huge threat at Lightweight. There was Good, there was Bad, there certainly was Ugly, and a couple other fights that didn’t fall under those headings. Let’s take a look…

The Good
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio let his hands go in violent combinations to eventually stop Andreas Stahl.
  • Continuing his rise up the Bantamweight ranks, Aljamain Sterling fought a calculated and well executed fight against a very dangerous opponent. He fought so well, he neutralized the best aspect of Eduardo’s offense and exploited his greatest weakness.
  • It didn’t star as planned, but Sage Northcutt was able to out-wrestle the wrestler and eventually put the cap on the fight via submission. Another nice step for the young prospect.
  • The pacing of UFC 80 was better than most cards. The action flowed and I didn’t feel such a disconnect between main card fights.
  • Geane Herrera took the fight on short notice and put the stamp on Job y Sanchez with a brutal knockout.
  • The pre-fight stats suggest the pace and striking volume of Evan Dunham would be too much for Joe Lauzon and it was. Even more impressive, was the improved striking technique of Dunham which could lead to a career resurgence.
  • Frankie Edgar has long been considered a point fighter. That was far from the case against Chad Mendes, as the former Lightweight champion sent a message to the winner of the UFC 194 main event. He is next. Edgar was quicker then Mendes and routinely beat him to the punch, eventually landing a devastating combinations that dropped Mendes and brought the fight to a halt. Edgar is now the undeniable #1 contender.
The Bad
  • Nathan Coy eventually got the fight where he wanted it, on the ground, but it was all downhill from there as Danny Roberts locked up a beautiful triangle armbar combo for the finish.
  • It is never over until it is over, as Omari Akmhedov found out when Sergio Moraes scored a 3rd round knockout in a contest where the Russian appeared to be ahead on the scorecards.
  • Tim Means is one bad man. Another violent knockout of a tough opponent. Means is one of the most undervalued fighters in the division.
  • Jim Miller was near the top of the Lightweight division for a long time, but never able to get that big win to earn a shot at the gold. After re-entering the rankings, a submission loss to Michael Chiesa is a clear indication that his time as an elite fighter is all but over.
The Ugly
  • The eye poker and subsequent blood dripping out of the eye of Kevin Casey fits here.
  • The gash on the forehead of Elias Theodorou was ugly enough on its own. The beating he took against Thiago Santos in rounds 2 and 3 was pretty ugly too. Big win for Thiago after a slow start.
  • The crimson mask sported by Paige VanZant was the product of a masterfully violent execution of the skills of Rose Namajunas. Rose won every round in dominant fashion and seal the deal with a very nice submission win. Big things ahead for ‘Thug’ Rose.
  • The hematoma on the side of Mike Pierce’s head was reminiscent of the lump that Jose Aldo inflict on Mark Hominick’s head. Pierce had his moments, but the time away clearly effected his timing and Ryan LaFlare was the more active striker and got the nod as a result.
  • It is hard to call it a fight, but it was ugly. Gabriel Gonzaga won. That is all.
  • For a fighter that threw punches in bunches on the show, Artem Lobov forgot to bring his gloves to the cage with him for the TUF finals. Ryan Hall put his grappling on display, but for the most part it was an unpleasant fight to watch. Prolonged periods of inactivity, where both fighters even looked at Herb Dean for some form of help or guidance. Hall is the winner of the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, whatever that means anymore.
  • I’m getting really tired how long these events run. While UFN 80 did a decent job the pacing of the card, the TUF 22 Finale dragged on far too long.
The Hilarious
  • Tatsuya Kawajiri put a top position beating on UFC newcomer Jason Knight. The highlight of the fight for me came when John McCarthy called for work and Kawajiri, who had one of his arms tied up, attempt a few little ineffective and funny looking ‘fist bumps’ to his opponent’s head in response.
The Unreal
  • Tony Ferguson and Edson Barboza went to absolute war. Bloody and Beautiful! Ferguson pressured Barboza and kept coming. Even after losing a point in the opening round, Ferguson looked undeterred. He walked down an incredibly dangerous fighter who was throwing some serious heat in return. The finish was equally as beautiful and brought an end to a late 2015 FOTY candidate. Ferguson is easily one of my favourite fighters to watch and a title fight is not far away.
Final Thoughts…
  • All together I went 13-6 and both bet packs were winners, despite my poor record on Friday Night.
  • Joseph Kohout‏ was the winner of the DraftKings’s ‘Frank Mir Experience’ and he used a lineup posted in the Bet Pack for UFN 80. He will be sitting with the former Heavyweight champ cage side for next week’s UFC on Fox 17. Look for a red Kamikaze Overdrive Hat. Way to go Joseph!
  • Tony Ferguson is an animal.
  • So is ‘Thug’ Rose.
  • Frankie Edgar is on a mission. We know what happens when he is on a mission.
  • Check out the Bet Packs below.
  • Time to get ready for UFC 194!

Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available

The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.

eVENT PASSWORD copyUFN 80

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: TIM MEANS $1.33 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: SANTIAGO PONZINIBBIO $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: ANTONIO CARLOS JUNIOR $1.45- VOID
Selection 4: OMARI AKHMEDOV $1.77 
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Price: $5.29 x Bet: 9 units
Payout: 47.61 units
 
 
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Parlay #1 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Selection 1: THIAGO SANTOS $3.32 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: DANNY ROBERTS $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $5.55 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 22.2 units
 
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Parlay #2 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Selection 1: ROSE NAMAJUNAS $2.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV $1.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: MICHAEL CHIESA $1.84 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $7.19 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 50.33 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: CODY PFISTER/SAGE NORTHCUTT Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: ALJAMAIN STERLING/JOHNNY EDUARDO Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: ROSE NAMAJUNAS $2.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: OMARI AKHMEDOV $1.77 
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Price: $21.87 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 109.35 units
 
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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: ROSE NAMAJUNAS/ PAIGE VANZANT Total Rounds Under 3.5 $2.10 
Selection 2: MICHAEL CHIESA $1.84 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: NATHAN COY/DANNY ROBERTS Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: THIAGO SANTOS $3.32 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $28.23 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 141.15 units

Draftkings Line up

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Lineup #1
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Fighter 1: Rose Namajunas $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Sage Northcutt $11300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Omari Akhmedov $9800 
Fighter 4: Thiago Santos $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Aljamain Sterling $11000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Lineup #2
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Fighter 1: Rose Namajunas $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Thiago Santos $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Santiago Ponzinibbio $10500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Danny Roberts $10100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Tim Means $10900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining: 
 

 

KAILIN CURRAN $1.33 vs EMILY KAGAN $3.76 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is the first of a 31 breakdowns that I will be doing in a very short period of time. To make sure I get everything done on time I will need to get straight to the point. Curran is 0-2 in the UFC and despite looking decent in both fights she is a tough sell as this heavy a favourite at this price. I had her as the fav, but not this big. The manner in which she lost the Chambers’s fight doesn’t leave me with a lot of confidence. I think she beats Kagan here, but with so many options over the next 4 days she is a No Play for me. The same goes for her DK status, too expensive, too much uncertainty.

ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV $1.48 vs PHILLIPE NOVER $3.10 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really wasn’t that impressed with Nover in his re-debut. Despite have a clear grappling advantage and the edge in wrestling his gas tank failed him and he almost lost the fight. Tukhugov has been on the shelf for a bit, but he has looked good in his 2 UFC fights. He hits hard, remains active, and should be able to stuff the takedowns. His record compared to Nover’s in decision is clear indication of who will have the edge in a longer fighter. Despite the lack of activity on Tukhugov’s part, I am leaning towards him as Gold level parlay fold, but it is far from a certainty. There are a couple of heavy favs on this fight which are untouchable, which increases the significance of this fight. He has averaged just over 84 fantasy points in 2 fights and will cost you $10400 to add to your team. I’m not 100% sold on his ability to finish Nover like he did his last opponent as he has 10 career decision wins compared to 7 stoppages. He is an option, but I see him fitting in on my #2 team not my ‘A’ squad.

SANTIAGO PONZINIBBIO $1.55 vs ANDREAS STAHL $2.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We got a very brief look at Stahl and while he proved himself to be tough and durable, that was about it. He got worked on the feet by a grappler with a decent, but not overwhelmingly dangerous striking game. Ponzinibbio hits very hard and is aggressive. Stahl’s willingness to take damage and go shot for shot won’t hold up well. Santiago’s 2 losses game against a very capable wrestler and an increasingly lethal kickboxer. Stahl is neither of those. I don’t see Stahl being as skilled as Sean Strickland and Ponzinibbio will be able to use the same volume/power striking attack to get this win like he did the last one. At this price I think we are getting a little value here as I had him closer to $1.40, so he makes the cut in my Gold parlay leg. He doesn’t fit the bill for me #1 DK squad, but at $10500 and some capable stopping power he could find his way onto team #2.

NATHAN COY $2.36 vs DANNY ROBERTS $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Coy is finally getting his shot in the UFC, but it appears to be a little too late. I was initially leaning towards the American on the basis of his wrestling, but his lack of durability, questionable chin, and late notice status are all too much for me. Roberts hits hard and comes from a boxing background. He lines up like the typical fighter that will be able to deal with the initial TDAs of Coy, do some damage between shots, and then completely take over once Coy starts to break down. The size and athleticism of Roberts should offer a nice foil to Coy’s grinding style. With Roberts making his debut I can’t back him in my top play, but he is a nice option for a Silver Parlay leg. Based on the plan I have for my #1 DK squad, Roberts does not fit. He does fit on Team 2 and I think he has real potential to score some points with a 1st or 2nd round stoppage.

ALJAMAIN STERLING $1.22 vs JOHNNY EDUARDO $4.85 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Eduardo wrecked some parlays last time out. The type of parlays where put it all together and then get greedy. You toss on an extra fighter, a heavy favourite, to add a few more dollars. The everything comes crumbling down when he smashes your guy. Not here. Well it could happen here, but we aren’t going to let it affect us. Sterling is a ‘Blue Chip’ prospect, but at this price he is also a ‘No Play’. Where I do like him is on your DK team. He has an improving submission game and tapping Mizugaki is no small feat. Eduardo has had issues with his submission defense and I would expect Sterling to want to exploit that instead of toying with him on the feet. He is going to cost you a lot to have on your club. $11000 to be exact, but he is worth it. Either he finishes Eduardo, most likely via sub and scores big points that way or he cashes in via takedowns and prolonged periods of top control/ active GNP. He is the 1st addition to my #1 squad.

ANTONIO CARLOS JUNIOR $1.45 vs KEVIN CASEY $3.02

I am not a Kevin Casey fan. I picked against him heavily against Alcantara and felt that the Brazilian lost the fight more than ‘King’ won it. Alcantara was afraid to engage because he didn’t want to end up on his back. When he did attack early on, he found himself in full mount. Had he pushed the pace Casey most likely would have tired out midway through round 2. Carlos Junior won’t have that fear. He is the bigger man and the better grappler. Cummins put him on his back with regularity, but that was at LHW and against a top level NCAA D-1 wrestler. If they opt to keep it standing, Casey isn’t active enough. The Brazilian isn’t pretty, but he will be aggressive and that should be enough. I like Junior as part of my top play. I see him being better in Casey’s greatest area of strength. While there is potential for a finish, I feel his price is a little too steep to work his way into either of my top DK lineups.

OMARI AKHMEDOV $1.77 vs SERGIO MORAES $2.18  

Akhmedov looked very good in his last fight. I really liked the way he battered Ebersole’s lead leg and got the stoppage as a result of his low kicks. Multiple dimensions makes you a more dangerous fighter. The only thing that is preventing me from going 100% all-in on Omari is his gas tank. He slowed down tremendously against Nilsson, despite controlling the majority of the action. That was the first time since 2011, 10 fights, that he had gone outside of the 1st round. It was also the only time he has fought 3 rounds as the other decisions were of the 2-round variety. If he slows down he could leave himself open to the grappling skills of Moraes. That being said, I picked against Moraes because he doesn’t use his ground skills enough. He relies too much on his striking and that will get him in trouble against the heavy handed Russian. Moraes striking technique is pretty poor and he is defensively vulnerable. At this price, I feel like he is worth the shot at the top and will find his way into my Gold level parlay. On DK, he will only cost you $9800. That fits perfectly with my plan for my top team, freeing up cash for 2 key players. He has the potential to pick up a stoppage- most likely by knockout. If not, he should be landing strikes at will for the duration and score points that way. He joins Sterling as my second member of the Team Kamikaze or whatever you want to call your lineup.

TIM MEANS $1.33 vs JOHN HOWARD $3.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I struggle to see Means losing this fight. The only way it happens is if either a) Howard lands a bomb and becomes the first person to legitimately knock him out or Howard can find consistent success with his wrestling. I don’t see either as likely, but it is important to still recognize how the guy you picked against can win. Means will have a reach advantage and volume advantage. I also see him as the more clean striker. His cardio is better too. Not cutting to LW has really benefited him. Even at just $1.33 I am confident enough in how this fight plays out to include Means in my top play, potentially as a 4th leg. That is rare. I know a couple of breakdowns earlier I talked about how getting greedy and adding an extra leg can cost you, but money is in my mouth… it doesn’t sound as good when said that way. I am putting my money where my mouth is. Tim Means Gold leg parlay, a contender for my #1 confidence play. Now I would love to put Means on my top DK team, but I can’t because he costs too much for what I want to do. He does however work into my second team. He could join Lorenz Larkin and knockout Howard. He could possibly submit him. Or at the very least he puts up some big strike totals, lands a takedown or 2, and wins a decision. He fits on Team 2.

ELIAS THEODOROU $1.41 vs THIAGO SANTOS $3.32  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

My biggest underdog pick of the card. I can see how Elias wins this fight. That is usually the case when betting against the fav. The books are never that far off that you can’t see how the fav can win the fight. If you can’t, it is probably with you and not them where the problem lies. Elias needs to remain busy and keep Santos under constant pressure. A constant diet of clinching fighting, mixed in with takedowns, and all at a torrid pace should do the trick. But I backed Santos. His kicking game is devastating and is going to be a lot to get around for the Canadian. Elias had a lot of trouble closing the distance in his last fight against a fighter not nearly as threatening as Thiago. Look for Thiago to either land low kicks to set up a body kick or bodies kicks to set up a high kick. At this price, I am leaning towards a single bet in the Silver section and/or a parlay leg in the Bronze or Wildcard section. Santos will be on my DK Team Kamikaze. He will only cost you $8700 and is capable of scoring some serious points having stopped his opponent in all of his wins. His low price tag leaves us open for some big spending at the top of the card. He joins Sterling and Akhmedov.

CODY PFISTER $9.67 vs SAGE NORTHCUTT $1.13  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Is this the fight where Northcutt gets derailed, exposed, beaten? I don’t know. I don’t think so, but it might be worth a bet at these odds. Honestly. It is his 2nd UFC fight and he is a near 10-1 favourite. A counter bet on Pfister is a must. How does he win the fight? If Northcutt can’t put him away in round 1 and gasses, Pfister’s grinding style could steal rounds 2 and 3. Much like he did against Cedeno. Pfister is tough, but if Northcutt is the phenom that is he being booked as this is a fight he is being set up to win. A counter bet on Pfister and a play on the total is the way to go. Pfister is also going to be on my top DK team. He costs a bundle, but the other plays allow us to work a budget where we can afford him. If he does blast Pfister in the opening round the points will roll in. He joins Sterling, Santos and Akhmedov- welcome to the team.

JIM MILLER $2.10 vs MICHAEL CHIESA $1.84  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This should be a pretty decent fight and gives up a good indication of where these two are at. Chiesa is both younger and bigger. He is also a very strong grappler. Miller is far more opportunistic on the mat and can pickup submission in a variety of different positions. On the flip side, he takes a lot of chances and looks for subs that routinely cost him position when they don’t land. It cost him against Henderson, Dariush, Healy, and it almost cost him against Castillo. Chiesa is the type that will capitalize on that and not let Miller get out of the spot without spending some serious time in the inferior position. I anticipate this being a close fight and possibly evening ending with a split decision. I still like Chiesa, as I think the miles are catching up the Miller. As far as betting the side is concerned, I like Chiesa in my Silver parlay. He has a very playable price, but his opponent is of high caliber. I don’t have Chiesa in either of my DK lineups. This could be a close fight and I don’t anticipate finish for Chiesa. While he could score some points with his top control, I will stay away.

ROSE NAMAJUNAS $2.64 vs PAIGE VANZANT $1.58 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Finally, we get to the main event and it should be a good one. Both girls are close, not there yet, but close to a shot at the title. PVZ is out in front, but this fight could change all that. It is PVZ’s ferocity and clinch based attack against Rose’s equally as aggressive attack and submission savvy ground game. I do not like the way PVZ gives up position during her attack. So far, it hasn’t cost her. Against Rose that could and I anticipate it will change. Against Curran and Herrig she was getting her back taken, and then relying on her ability to get out of bad spots. Rose will eat that up. Look for her to start chaining submissions together, specifically looking for the RNC. The scenario that many are banking on is PVZ overwhelming and breaking Rose like Carla did. PVZ isn’t as positionally sound as Carla and I don’t see her getting deep enough to do so if she makes her usual suspects. ‘Thug’ makes the cut for my Silver parlay leg. She also makes the cut on both my DK teams. She is inexpensive at $9200 and offers a tonne of potential to wrap the fight early. Her low price allows us to grab two top picks in Sterling and Northcutt and still have a lot of potential with her to earn points. Book it.

 

1. TIM MEANS $1.33 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. ALJAMAIN STERLING $1.22 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. SANTIAGO PONZINIBBIO $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. SAGE NORTHCUTT $1.13 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. ANTONIO CARLOS JUNIOR $1.45- VOID

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6. OMARI AKHMEDOV $1.77

7. ROSE NAMAJUNAS $2.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV $1.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. MICHAEL CHIESA $1.84 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. DANNY ROBERTS $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. KAILIN CURRAN $1.33 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. THIAGO SANTOS $3.32 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. ROSE NAMAJUNAS $2.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. THIAGO SANTOS $3.32 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. OMARI AKHMEDOV $1.77 

4. MICHAEL CHIESA $1.84 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. ROSE NAMAJUNAS/ PAIGE VANZANT Total Rounds Under 3.5 $2.10 

1. CODY PFISTER $9.67-  The UFC is trying to build up Sage and stylistically Pfister is a good matchup for him. Still these are pretty heavy odds for a guy with 1 fight in the UFC. Make a small play here.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

KAILIN CURRAN/EMILY KAGAN

See Betting Scenario Section.

ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV/PHILLIPE NOVER

See Betting Scenario Section.

NATHAN COY/DANNY ROBERTS Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Coy has been knocked out in each of his last 2 fights. He was also finished in his first TUF fight. His lack of prep time makes it hard to believe he will be able to go a full 3-rounds without gassing out. He’ll most likely try to finish early to accommodate. For Roberts, he has power and has had success with his submission game as well. If Coy can’t take him down and keep him there, Roberts will have a sizeable advantage on the feet. I don’t see it going the full 3 rounds, play the Under.

ALJAMAIN STERLING/JOHNNY EDUARDO Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both guys have the ability to finish. Sterling has 7 finishes, 4 by submission, and has put the cap on each of his last 2 UFC foes. He is finding his stride. Eduardo has power as he showed against Wineland. He also has a good submission game. He has finished in opponents in 20 of his 27 wins. More importantly to the scenario that I see playing out in this fight- he has been submitted 7 times. He has lost 9 times, 7 by submission- that is a pretty high percentage. Finishing Mizugaki turned some heads, I think Aljamain keeps it going here. Play the Under.

TIM MEANS/JOHN HOWARD 

See Betting Scenario Section.

ELIAS THEODOROU/THIAGO SANTOS Total Rounds Under $2.50  

Both guys have finishing capabilities. Santos has been knocking blocks off left right and center. Some via body shot, but that head kick against Bosse was something else. If he lands clean it may only take one strike to put Elias down. Conversely, Elias carries a pretty steady pace and I could easily see him overwhelming Santos on the mat and inside the clinch before the end of the middle frame. Play the Under.

CODY PFISTER/SAGE NORTHCUTT Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Okay, I will bite. If the hype is real or at least real enough for Northcutt to win this fight then he should do it inside the 1st half. Pfister is tough, but he is pretty rough around the edges and was taking some major shots against Cedeno and Moontasri cracked him a couple of times too. I am already suggesting a small counter bet on Pfister, so if this fight goes into the second half he should still be in it. Play the Under.

ROSE NAMAJUNAS/ PAIGE VANZANT Total Rounds Under 3.5 $2.10 

I honestly can’t believe we are getting 3.5 rounds at something above +105. Rose is a sniper and will finish this fight if she is given the opportunity. I think she will get it inside the opening 5, definitely before the end of minute 10. Conversely, PVZ is a ‘Go Beast’ as one of my work colleagues put it. She is going to push Rose and if she has her way and Rose does break, it will probably be somewhere late in round 2 or round 3. Both can finish, 3.5 rounds is a solid number with good value. Play the Under.

Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available

The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.

eVENT PASSWORD copyTUF 22 Finale

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Selection 1: TONY FERGUSON $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: TATSUYA KAWAJIRI $1.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: EVAN DUNHAM $1.56 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $3.86 x Bet: 10 units
Payout: 38.6 units
 
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: CHAD MENDES $2.48 
Selection 2: MIKE PIERCE $2.48 
Selection 3: GABRIEL GONZAGA/ KONSTANTIN EROKHIN Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.54 
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Price: $9.48 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 66.36 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: JOBY SANCHEZ $1.92  
Selection 2: KONSTANTIN EROKHIN $2.16 
Selection 3: TONY FERGUSON $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: MIKE PIERCE/RYAN LAFLARE Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $9.91 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 59.46 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: TONY FERGUSON/EDSON BARBOZA Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: MIKE PIERCE $2.48 
Selection 3: TATSUYA KAWAJIRI $1.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: ARTEM LOBOV $1.57 
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Price: $11.24 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 56.2 units

 

Draftkings Line up

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Lineup #1 Correction Erokhin out Pierce in
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Fighter 1: EVAN DUNHAM $10500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: TATSUYA KAWAJIRI $10800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: MIKE PIERCE $8700 
Fighter 4: TONY FERGUSON $10300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: CHAD MENDES $9500 
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Salary Remaining: $200
 
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Lineup #2 N/A
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2:
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
Fighter 5: 
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Salary Remaining: 
 

 

GEANE HERRERA $1.84 vs JOBY SANCHEZ $1.92 

Herrera comes in on short noitce which is a difficult scenario to overcome right off the bat. Sanchez has had a full camp to get ready and fighting out of Jackson-Wink he will be ready. Herrera is a pretty solid athlete with a a good submission game, but Sanchez’s counter wrestling and more technical striking game should prevent him from getting in a position to use those skills. Sanchez was taken down 9 times on 14 attempts by Reis, but Reis is a very accomplished ground fighter and Sanchez took that fight on short notice. It should also serve as a point of improvement Joby, helping him in this fight. Taking a quick look at Herrera’s pre-UFC competition- it isn’t overwhelming. The last 3 men he fought are a combined 34-28. Not bad. If you look closer, they are a combined 6-14 over their last 20 fights. Additionally, he has minimal experience with fights that go beyond the first round, so combined that with the short notice and Herrera could be in for a bit of a drop off after the first round. The x-factors certainly favour Sanchez and he is the slight dog as of right now. With both guys still relatively early in their UFC/MMA careers there is still an element of the unknown. As a result I have to stick this fight in the Silver section parlay, possibly dropping to Bronze. No DK info yet, but I don’t anticipate him being in my top 5.

GABRIEL GONZAGA $1.69 vs KONSTANTIN EROKHIN $2.16 

I’m not currently wearing a hat, but if the judges need to render a decision in this fight I would theoretically eat my hat. I don’t see this fight going the distance. Gonzaga is a top level grappler against a fighter that displayed some glaring holes in his ground game last time out. Erokhin hits like a truck, a big one, and Gabe’s chin and ability to absorbed damage is, to put it bluntly- bad. Hows it play out? Well, clearly the total needs to be a bet to look at. As far as the side is concerned, I went with Erokhin. GG has a tendency to want to stand and trade, which will get him hurt. Erokhin has showed good TDD in his pre-UFC fights and did a decent job early on against Pesta. Yes, Gabe is not Pesta- I am aware of that. I like the way Erokhin was able to land counters and catch Viktor coming forward. He hit him with some shots that will most likely put Gabe down. Additionally, if Gabe can’t get the early tap his cardio is so poor that he could be forced to strike in round 2 and that would be a disaster. Even a tired Erokhin is dangerous. I feel more confident in the Under, even at 1.5 rounds. Erokhin slips to the Bronze section based on the volatility of the division. Even without the DK numbers set, I like Erokhin on my squad. The chance for a finish is high and as an underdog he frees up some cash for bigger lineup additions.

TATSUYA KAWAJIRI $1.48 vs JASON KNIGHT $2.72 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I think we are getting a little value here on Kawajiri. Knight is stepping up on short notice against a fighter who represents a stylistic nightmare for him. If you watched Knight’s last fight he was losing it right up until the finish. His opponent was routinely taking him down and holding top position for large chunks of the fight. Knight got the eventual sub off his back based on his opponent’s aggression once getting on top. Kawajiri won’t give him that chance. Tatsuya top game is strong and while he might look to advance position or for a sub- he won’t do so at the expense of positional control. I didn’t get to see a lot of Knight’s striking, mainly because he couldn’t stay vertical long enough. That is enough for me to pick against him against a top level wrestler like Kawajiri. The short notice only adds to my confidence in Kawajiri. I had him somewhere around the $1.30-$1.35 range at best. He makes my top parlay play. He will get strong consideration for my DK team as well. Prolong top control and the potential for a finish against a tired opponent will score points. Picking up Erokhin cheap frees up cash for this play.

ARTEM LOBOV $1.57 vs RYAN HALL $2.54 

To be brutally honest I was hoping for a little more value on Lobov. He is dangerous on the feet and if he keeps it there he wins. Conversely, Hall is very talented on the mat and if he gets in on the ground he wins. Hall is the more likely of the 2 to make significant improvements since the show and that concerns me. It is also hard to predict. Lobov’s price is playable, but do not go all in. He does offer a workable option as far as Fantasy points are concern because if he wins it will most likely be by knockout. Consider him an option for a secondary team.

MIKE PIERCE $2.48 vs RYAN LAFLARE $1.63  

These odds are exactly where I had hoped they would be. Pierce is returning after a couple of injuries and a prolonged layoff, which are both major concerns. On the flip side, he is one of the most underrated fighters in the division. He has all the tool to beat LaFlare if he is on point. I haven’t been impressed with LaFlare’s defensive wrestling and the manner in which Maia was able to routinely take him down, even after slowing down, suggests Pierce can do the same. LaFlare’s gas tank is another point of concern. He gets tired. Even in fights where he is winning. Pierce is known for both having an excellent gas tank and fighting a grueling, energy-sapping style of fight. This all goes out the window if he is a shell of his former self. I’m banking he has some gas left in the tank. Still with the layoff and injuries that is a little too much going against him to make Pierce a top investment. Nonetheless, combining him with Mendes and possibly Sanchez or a prop bet will make for a strong Silver parlay. No official DK info yet, as of right now he would not be on my #1 team because of his lack of finishes.

*Update, based on the price Pierce will replace Konstanin Erokhin. He he is incredibly cheap and has an excellent chance of pulling the upset. By making this change the rest of the team can remain intact.

EVAN DUNHAM $1.56 vs JOE LAUZON $2.61 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This should be a really fun scrap. Lauzon is so dangerous early on. He only needs one opportunity to slap on a sub and get his hand raised. Dunham, unfortunately, is a bit of a slow starter. If he makes a mistake early it could be all over. While he might take a few minutes to get going, once he does- he comes on strong. Fortunately, Dunham should have the defensive grappling savvy to bridge the gap between the start of the fight and the point where Joe starts to slow and Evan gets stronger. This is a decent price for Dunham, especially considering he has only been subbed once in 22 fights and it was by the current #1 contender. Conversely, Lauzon is 7-7 in fights not ending in submission, and 7-10 if you add in his 3 submission losses. Dunham defensive grappling and hefty striking pace carry the day. I dumped a lot of numbers into this prediction. We’ll see if the stats hold up. I like Dunham enough to fire him into my top play. Based on his output and some potential takedowns, along with a possible stoppage scenario, he is on my DK team.

TONY FERGUSON $1.67 vs EDSON BARBOZA $2.53 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Barboza is a killer, but this fight will most likely cement his position outside of the top tier if he can’t get the job done. He stepped up on short notice, which is admirable, but it might not suit his style. He is known to slow down a bit. Johnson was able to wear him out and beat him up. If he slows down against Ferguson, he will do the same. Ferg is really hitting his stride right now and his pressure striking game should replicate the issues that Barboza had with Johnson, Varner, and even Ros Pearson. Look for Ferguson to attack, slip out of the range of the low kicks, and then attack again. He also has the option to mix in his wrestling. With Edson’s questionable chin, I see Ferguson cracking him and then looking to lock up some form of choke. Wathc for the D’Arce. Ferguson has multiple ways of winning this fight and at this price he makes the cut in my top parlay of the night. If the numbers lineup, I have Ferguson as part of my DK team.

FRANKIE EDGAR $1.67 vs CHAD MENDES $2.48 

A huge fight in the Featherweight division and the winner will most likely get the next shot at the title. If Aldo retains. Mendes has long been considered the next best FW outside of Aldo and with the questions surround his loss to McGregor, that could still be the case. Edgar would like to change that. The advantages that Edgar had at LW aren’t as significant at 145 pounds. He is still an elite fighter, but his speed, volume, and cardio won’t carry as well against other elite FWs. Mendes is potentially just as fast, his cardio is close, and he hits harder. He even carries a pace that is close to the same as Edgar’s output and I see Mendes having the edge in the striking department. As of posting this fight only 1 other line is posted fort his card. By only predicting 7 fights our options are a little limited. I still think Mendes is an excellent bet and he will be the headliner on my Silver parlay. Mendes will be the dog so he is a bargain based on his talent level and will make the cut on my club.

 

1. TATSUYA KAWAJIRI $1.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. EVAN DUNHAM $1.56 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. TONY FERGUSON $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. MIKE PIERCE $2.48 

5. CHAD MENDES $2.48 

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6. JOBY SANCHEZ $1.92 

7. KONSTANTIN EROKHIN $2.16 

 

1. MIKE PIERCE $2.48 

2. CHAD MENDES $2.48 

3. TONY FERGUSON $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. KONSTANTIN EROKHIN $2.16 

5. JOBY SANCHEZ $1.92 

1. N/A

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Infromation.

 

Prop Bets

 

GEANE HERRERA/JOBY SANCHEZ

See Betting Scenario Section.

GABRIEL GONZAGA/ KONSTANTIN EROKHIN Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.54 

I don’t know if this fight will be one of the first two on the card, but I’ll post it here anyway. This fight screams under. Both men can finish, and both men can be finished. That is why the price is so low. Of the Russian’s 9 wins, 8 have come by knockout. All in the opening round. GG has been knocked out 8 times. That is a lot, even at heavyweight. All 16 of Gonzaga’s wins have come inside the distance, 10 inside the opening 5 minutes. If he gets on top of Erokhin, he will be in full control and have free will to start looking for subs. Play the Under.

MIKE PIERCE/RYAN LAFLARE Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This isn’t a flashy play, but still serviceable. Pierce has gone the distance 13 times in his career, 8 times in the UFC. LaFlare has gone the distance 5 times in 12 fights, but those 5 decision have come in his 5 UFC fights. A step up in competition can do that. Pierce has shown the ability to finish, but unless he is able to score the knockout, LaFlare should be able to survive on the mat with him. Not win, but survive. Play the Over.

EVAN DUNHAM/JOE LAUZON Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight could easily end inside the distance, especially if Lauzon is getting his hand raised when the dust settles. 5 of Dunham’s last 6 wins have come on the cards, with the 6th ending via doctor stoppage. The last 3 Lauzon fights have all finished via TKO. He went the distance in 3 straight fights. Dunham’s volume is concerning and if Lauzon fades the ref could jump. The submission potential for Lauzon is equally as concerning, but I like the over as these 2 matchup quite nicely.

TONY FERGUSON/EDSON BARBOZA Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both men have the potential to finish. Neither man is easy to put away, but at this price and respecting their abilities the play is the Under. I see Ferg hurting Barbosa and finishing him either via knockout or submission, but Edson could easily land something significant and put him away. Ferguson had finished 4 of his past 5 opponents prior to putting a beating on Thomson that would have finished many. Barboza has gone the distance 3 straight times, but went to the judges just once in the 7 fights prior to the finish. Play the Under.

ARTEM LOBOV/RYAN HALL  Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.87 

Both guys have the ability to end this fight. Hall by submission and Lobov by knockout. More importantly, both men are vulnerable in the areas of the strength of their opponent. 1.5 is a little risky, but I think this play poses the best option for the fight. I expect to see a much improved Hall after the layoff and Lobov to bring a very similar approach. Play the Under.

 

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