UFN 79: Henderson vs Masvidal- ‘The Dong Did it’

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UFC Fight Night 79 served as lovely appetiser of violence before we make our way to the 4 Events in 9 days main course that is December in the UFC. The Octagon’s first trip to Korea was certainly a success. Local fighters went 5-3 on the card and while only 5 of the 11 fight ended before the final bell we were treated to some solid action. My predictions were garbage and while most of the decisions were warranted it was a little difficult to sit through a 0-5 run in split decisions. Glad I got up early to watch the card from the start. Let’s take a quick look at UFN 79…

Notes from the Prelims
  • Dominique Steele got off to a strong and utilized his size and strength advantage to bully his way to an opening fight victory- landing a brutal slam and concussive elbows to stop the fight early in round 1.
  • In a bit of a tentative affair, Marco Beltran got the nod via split decision. Neither man engaged early and even as the action picked up late the fight really lacked a consistent flow.
  • An unfortunate injury was the story of 3rd fight of the night. Fredy Serrano scored an early take down and as Yao Zhikui looked to cushion the fall his elbow dislocated and resulted in the stoppage and TKO victory for the Colombian.
  • The ladies once again stole the show with a back and forth war. Korea’s Seohee Hamm was hurt early on but rallied on the strength of her striking volume to win the final two rounds and take the decision over the heavy handed Cortney Casey.
  • Tae Hyun Bang took home a hometown decision despite clearly gassing out following his early attempts to finish the fight. Leo Kuntz had a clear path to victory against an exhausted fighter, including an undefended RNC and was unable to seal the deal the final two frames.
  • They started fast and furious and appeared like the judges would not be required, but for the third straight fight the fighters required the scorecards to determine a winner. American Mike De La Torre got his hand raised on the strength of a more technically sound and efficient striking attack.
  • Ending the preliminary action on a high note for the home crowd, the returning Dongi Yang hurt his opponent on the feet and took advantage of a desperation submission attempt to land thunderous GNP for the eventual TKO stoppage.
Main Card

Up, Up, and Away
The Korean Super boy Doo Ho Choi picked up his second first round stoppage in as many UFC appearance. The fighters exchanged early fire, with Sicilia appearing to land a couple of shots but clearly getting the worst of the strikes. A thunderous counter right was the beginning of the end for the American. After the fight, Choi began to stake his claim as the best in the division. Unfortunately, that is a difficult stance to take when he has fought just twice in the UFC since 2013. Bigger and better things await him, hopefully in the not to distance future.

Battered, but Not Beaten

Despite dominating the final frame, Yoshihiro Akiyama was unable to dent the perfect record of the incredibly fortunate Alberto Mina. Mina won a split decision on the strength of his opening 2 rounds. He appeared to be the slightly more active fighter and hurt Akiyama on a couple of occasions. Akiyama’s most effective technique was his low kick which was piling up the damage on the lead leg of his opponent. The split decision is a bit controversial, but the view of the entire fight was clearly swayed by the final frame.

Muddied Waters

It didn’t take long for the heavily favoured Dong Hyun Kim to dispose of injury replacement Dominic Waters. After landing a beautiful throw, Kim quickly moved into the crucifix position and peppered away at his foe until the referee was forced to step in. It is not a big win for Kim, but by avoiding defeat he at the very least maintains his position in the division. Kim currently sits in the top 10 of the division, but if he wants to challenge for the title stiffer competition lies ahead for the Stun Gun. See what I didn’t do there.

Smooth Curtain Call

The fight was close, but the decision was correct. Former Champion Benson Henderson earned a split decision nod over Jorge Masvidal in the UFN 79 main event. Masvidal had his moments, but it was ‘Smooth’ that remained a little more active and did what he is known to do- edge out close decisions. This was the final fight on Henderson’s UFC contract and the win leaves him in a strong position from which to negotiate. It will be interesting to see what the UFC does or more importantly what Benson does. If he opts to go the Free Agent route, Bellator will view Henderson has another significant step in the direction of closing the gap with the #1 MMA promotion in the world. For Masvidal, he is 0-2 in the two biggest profile fights of his career. He fought well, but it simply wasn’t enough. It will be interesting to see if opts to continue at Welterweight or takes another shot at 155 pound.

Final Thoughts…

This was a fun card, even if my predictions went south right from the start. We had some entertaining scraps that went the distance, a few violent finishes, and as always seems to be the case- a little bit of controversy.

I have struggled tremendously, with these early morning shows. There are a variety of factors in play, but I need to make the appropriate adjustments and execute. AKA- write all my picks down on paper and then pick the opposite on my show. I did lose 5 split decisions, which is a little hard to swallow. At the same time I was pretty accepting of my fate after the first couple of fights turned out the way they did. I’m over it, time to move on.

On a side note- the poster I made for this event is easily one of my all-time favourites. It is simple, but I thought it turned out quite nicely.

We get a little less than 2 weeks off before our next show and by next show I mean 3 shows in 3 nights. It is a lot of fun and a lot of work, not time to waste.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: SEOHEE HAM $2.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: YUI CHUL NAM $1.93 
Selection 3: DOO HO CHOI $1.44 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $6.81 x Bet: 10 units
Payout: 68.10
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: JAKE COLLIER $1.83  
Selection 2: LEO KUNTZ $2.50 
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Price:$4.58 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 22.9 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: YUI CHUL NAM/ MIKE DE LA TORRE Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.25 
Selection 2:  DONG HYUN KIM $2.15 
Selection 3: YOSHIHIRO AKIYAMA $1.68 
Selection 4: SEOHEE HAM/ CORTNEY CASEY Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.46 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $11.87 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 83.09 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: JORGE MASVIDAL $3.26 
Selection 2: YUI CHUL NAM/ MIKE DE LA TORRE Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.25 
Selection 3: DOO HO CHOI/ SAM SICILIA Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: YAO ZHIKUI $2.65 
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Price: $39.85 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 199.25 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: LEO KUNTZ $2.50 
Selection 2: DONG HYUN KIM/ DOMINIC WATERS Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: DONG HYUN KIM $2.15 
Selection 4: SEOHEE HAM $2.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: DOO HO CHOI $1.44 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $42.67 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 213.35

 

Draftkings Line up

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Lineup #1
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Fighter 1: Dong Hyun Kim $9500 
Fighter 2: Dong Hyun Kim $11100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Yui Chul Nam $9800 
Fighter 4: Doo Ho Choi $10500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Seeohee Ham $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining: $0
 
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Lineup #2
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Fighter 1: Jake Collier $10000 
Fighter 2: Jorge Masvidal $8600 
Fighter 3: Doo Ho Choi $10500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Dong Hyun Kim $11100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Yu Chul Nam $9800 
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Salary Remaining: $0
 

 

DOMINIQUE STEELE $1.81 vs DONG HYUN KIM $2.15 

I’m a little under the weather so these are going to be quick and to the point. Steele isn’t a very good fighter, especially not at this level. His wrestling defense and lack of speed are 2 major drawbacks. Fighters moving up a weight class, even temporarily have had a lot of success of late and even with the limited prep time I like Dong 2 to get the job done here. Steele’s questionable chin makes him even a bigger concern. I can’t play Kim in my top play and there is a lot of value on this card- he could easily be a silver play on most shows but with the late notice he could slip to a bronze parlay. Kim costs just $9500 to get on your DK team and there is realy potenteil for a knockout here. He won’t be a popular pick so he will offer you some points that most others will overlook. He will certainly be on my #2 team and could easily make my top team.

NING GUANGYOU $1.55 vs MARCO BELTRAN $2.80 

I am little leery with Beltran being bigger and younger and coming in off a long layoff that could lead to unpredictable improvement in skill. Ning smashed Wee, but that win isn’t that great when you look at Wee’s overall body of work. I see Ning either grinding out this fight with his wrestling or scoring a stoppage eventually, but with so many other options on this card this play either drops to the bottom of my bet card or right off it all together. The same can be said for my DK team.

YAO ZHIKUI $2.65 vs FREDY SERRANO $1.62 

Serrano comes from an impressive wrestling background, but at his age I don’t expect to see significant improvements from his last outing. He has lacked consistency in his wrestling and he is not active enough with his striking. He can win this fight, but I think he needs to do it via knockout. If he tries to be more active with his striking and/or wrestling I question whether his cardio will hold up long enough to secure 2 full rounds. Conversely, I like the aggression of Yao and while he was gifted a win in his last fight I saw enough improvements to suggest he will be better again this time out. I see him outworking Serrano over the fight and even finding some surprising success with his own wrestling as the fight goes on. At this price, I am leaning towards a Silver parlay leg, but with so many options me might slip to a strong Bronze leg. Still a decent play based on the value and skill matchup. At $9000, he is very cheap to employ on your DK club. He will likely be on 1 of my 2 clubs, allowing me to pick a heavy fav like DHK at the top of the team.

SEOHEE HAM $2.45 vs CORTNEY CASEY $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Love the line here and rolling with the dog again. Both girls recently fought JoJo and while Casey had her in trouble early in the fight, Ham faired much better over the long haul. Ham was a top ranked Atomweight fighter and while moving up to Strawweight costs her in the size department, it doesn’t do anything to diminish her skills. Casey is aggressive and clearly hits hard, but unless she can stop Ham (who has been knocked out just once in 21 fights), she is going to struggle with the speed and technical abilities of her opponent. Ham will use her lateral movement and footwork to stay away from Casey’s power and keep her chasing. At this price am giving serious consideration to playing Ham in my gold parlay. She is also an inexpensive addition to your DraftKing’s team, but she has never won by knockout and probably won’t here either. For her to score a lot of points she will most likely need to do it with volume and I think there are better options on the is card from a finishing standpoint. If your first 4 picks leave you with minimum options to fill out your roster then she is your best choice of what is left.

TAE HYUN BANG $1.80 vs LEO KUNTZ $2.50 

This line is quite odd. Some sites have Bang has a significant favourite and others have it almost even. When it opened Kuntz was a massive dog across the board, but don’t be shocked to see Leo as the favourite or close to it when you go to put your money down. Bang has power, no question there. Outside of that, his volume and willingness to sit back and let his opponent set the pace is a major problem. His grappling defense is even more concerning and has been exploited in his recent losses. Kuntz didn’t look good in his debut, but it appeared that he was a lamb being led to slaughter against an opponent that has a high ceiling. If Bang had not knocked out Kajan he could easily be 0-3 in the UFC and not in the UFC anymore. Kuntz outworks him and scores the W mainly by being more active. At this price, I think he slides into the Silver section quite nicely. Kuntz is still the dog on DK at $9300. He won’t make the cut as my top team, but he gives you a nice alternative if you intend to put in a second club.

YUI CHUL NAM $1.93 vs MIKE DE LA TORRE $2.00 

This fight is set pretty close to even and won’t be he for the faint of heart. Both are aggressive and I will be shocked if we get a decision. Nam’s aggressive striking style will benefit directly from De La Torre’s willingness to engage. If Nam comes out guns blazing De La Torre is going to meet him in the center of the cage and I don’t see it ending well for him. Bocek hurt him and while the Blanco stoppage was quick, he was still hurt big time. De La Torre lacks the wrestling to exploit Nam on the mat and I actually was impressed with the adjustments that Nam made late against Nover with his own grappling. Stylistically this bout favours Nam and he makes the cut in my Gold parlay. The chance for a finish is high here and at $9800 his price compared to point production potential makes him a must have on your DK team.

DONGI YANG $2.20 vs JAKE COLLIER $1.83 

I have seen mixed reviews on this fight. Some feel Yang is going to smash through Collier and others have the American edging him out on the scorecards. I see the latter happening as well. Collier showed significant improvement between his 1st 2 fights and I expect to see him improve again. Yang is a capable fighter, but his lack of activity since getting cut from the UFC the first time suggests that he is most likely the same fighter we saw go 1-3 in th Octagon. If you look at this 3 losses they came to Tavares, McGree, and Camozzi. I see Collier fitting this mold. A bigger man with a more diverse and active striking attack, capable of wrestling when needed. The combination of Collier’s speed and reach will keep Yang from landing with any consistency and Collier’s wrestling should be good enough to keep him vertical for the majority of the fight. Collier should make the cut in my Gold parlay from both value and stylistic viewpoint, but I only like to play 3 legs when I can and there is enough value already in place to end him to the Silver section. At $10000, he is a little expensive for my #1 DK especially considering I don’t expect a finish. He makes the cut on squad 2.

DOO HO CHOI $1.44 vs SAM SICILIA $3.10 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Choi has a tonne of hype, is this the fight where the train goes off the tracks? Probably not. Sicilia is a serviceable fighter, but he seems like the guy that gets fed to prospects on the rise. That is what Choi is. He hits likes a hammer and is a far more technical fighter than Sammy. The biggest concern is the wrestling of Sicilia and whether or not he can keep Choi down with consistency. I don’t think he can and as a result Choi is the play here and makes the cut in my top play. He will only cost you $10500 and the chances of him smashing through a first round stoppage and scoring 100+ are high, get him now on your DK team.

YOSHIHIRO AKIYAMA $1.68 vs ALBERTO MINA $2.50 

I looked long and hard at Mina as another fighter to join my long list of underdog picks on this card. I couldn’t do it. His striking techique is sloppy and his takedowns don’t appear to be much better. If Jake Shields couldn’t get Sexyama on his back I don’t see Mina doing it either. Mina’s best chance for victory is to score the knockout in the opening round. Why? Well in addition to some sloppy technique, his gas tank looks horrid. He was exhausted after less then a round in his debut and he has a history of 1 round fights. Akiyama will survive the opening onslaught and then use his judo to grind out the victory. This fight most likely slips to the Silver section simply because Akiyama is old and is rather inactive. I’m stying away from this fight for my fantasy picks.

DONG HYUN KIM $1.14 vs DOMINIC WATERS $6.59 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope clearly not betting a side here. Dong 2.0 should take this fight, but he fights in style that could eventually cost him a fight he should win. No Play. I will look at the total for sure. I do consider him a fighter to watch for your DraftKings lineup. He is the most expensive fighter on the card, but he can score you points in multiple ways. Either he shows his newish uber aggressive side and stops Waters early or dominates him on the mat for a larger duration of the fights gets you some control points. He is one of the more well-known fighters on the card and while he might not be worth a bet, I like him on my DK team and because of the dogs we already played we have the funds to buy the Dong. Sorry, everyone else is doing it.

JORGE MASVIDAL $3.26 vs BENSON HENDERSON $1.40 

Time for another main event upset. If Jorge Masvidal ends my night with a perfect 11-0 record I will have correctly picked 5 underdogs and a couple more fights that are near even. This fight is going to be much closer than the odds suggest. Masvidal has some of the best wrestling in the division both offensively and defensively and his striking is fantastic. He has been waiting for a high profile fight like this and I expect him to come out motivated. Not cutting to 155 pounds should help him to fight at a more consistence pace and not let up late like we have seen in past performances. Benson looked good in his debut at Welterweight, but a little undersized. Thatch is a big WW, Masvidal isn’t as big but he still has the physical edges. I expect to see Henderson struggle to match Masvidal on the feet and then when he tries to wrestle him, Jorge rejects his TDA’s or gets back up quickly if taken down. Watch out for the power of Masvidal, if he lands flush he has the ability to take Bendo out. Masvidal pays well, but his quality of opponent is very high which has me slipping this fight down to a Bronze parlay leg or at best Silver section single bet. With this being a 5 round fight, there is potential to see Masvidal rack up serious points over the 5 rounds. If he knocks him out it will be more. He won’t cost you much and frees up some cash for the rest of your team. He’ll be on y #2 DK team.

1. DONG HYUN KIM $1.14 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. DOO HO CHOI $1.44 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. YUI CHUL NAM $1.93 

4. JAKE COLLIER $1.83 

5. SEOHEE HAM $2.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. YOSHIHIRO AKIYAMA $1.68 

7. LEO KUNTZ $2.50 

9. DONG HYUN KIM $2.15 

9. YAO ZHIKUI $2.65 

10. NING GUANGYOU $1.55 

11. JORGE MASVIDAL $3.26 

1. SEOHEE HAM $2.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. YUI CHUL NAM/ MIKE DE LA TORRE Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.25 

3. DONG HYUN KIM $2.15 

4. JORGE MASVIDAL $3.26 

5. LEO KUNTZ $2.50 

1. N/A  -I am on 5 dogs already and there are couple fights that are so closely line that the return isn’t worth the counter bet.

2.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Info

Prop Bets

DOMINIQUE STEELE/DONG HYUN KIM 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

NING GUANGYOU/ MARCO BELTRAN

See Betting Scenario Section.

SEOHEE HAM/ CORTNEY CASEY Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.46 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Playing the Over in the Women’s divisions is almost as automatic as playing the Under with the Heavies. In this case, Ham has gone the distance 16 times in just 21 career fights. Since turning pro, Casey has just a single decision on her record which came in her last fight. That usually happens when a fighter takes a step up. Keep in mind her entire pro career covers 6 fights. As an amateur, she has gone the distance 4 times in 8 fights and just a sinlge 1st round finishes. The price isn’t huge but it will improve the return on your parlay. Play the Over.

YUI CHUL NAM/ MIKE DE LA TORRE Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.25 

This line is an absolute gift. I know they don’t always hits, but this is the type of fight that I was fully expecting to see set at 1.5 so we take the extra round and the extra value and we run. We run hard and fast, and hopefully all the way to the bank. I like this play. It looks very similar to Vanzant/Chambers and Namajunas/Hill who both hit the under. I did like the Rivera/Munhoz under and both guys had their moments but it didn’t turn out. Nam has 9 finishes in 18 bouts, but his super aggressive approach and deadly power make him a constant threat to finish. De La Torre is equally as aggressive and has gone the distance just twice in his 19 fight run. Play the Under.

DONGI YANG/ JAKE COLLIER  

See Betting Scenario Section.

DOO HO CHOI/ SAM SICILIA Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Choi is a killer. It took him just 18 seconds to win his debut and 9 of his 12 wins have come by knockout. 6 in the 1st round. Sicilia has only been knocked out once, but he was hurt by both Miller and Blanco. Choi hs the power to hurt him and the technical ability to deliver it. The wrestling of Sicilia is the biggest concern here, but until we see Choi’s ceiling- hit the under hard.

DONG HYUN KIM/ DOMINIC WATERS Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

You can’t touch the side here, but certainly consider playing the Under. Kim has been using a much more aggressive approach and fighting at home for the first time in a long time should magnify his want to put on a show. After developing a rep for being a grinder, his last 4 fights have all ended inside the distance. 3 in victorious fashion. If he does get too sloppy maybe Waters catches him as he has been stopped 3 times. Play the Under.

 

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