UFN 74: Holloway vs Oliveira- ‘An Unfortunate Finish’

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UFC Fight Night 74 is in the books and along with it the first trip for the Octagon to the prairie province of Saskatchewan. The main event was a big of a letdown, cut shot by injury, a pair of battle-tested warhorses went to war, a new Canadian Strawweight earned a huge victory, and 7 underdogs got their hands raised. Let’s take a look at some of the significant happenings from UFN 74…

Notes from the Prelims

  • Misha Cirkunov earned a methodical and dominant 1st round TKO victory over fellow debutant Daniel Jolly. With Jonathan Wilson and Cirkunov picking up early wins it is nice to see a pair of newcomers making some noise in the Light Heavyweight division.
  • In a bit of shocking turn of events kickboxer Shane Campbell lost the opening round in a primarily grappling based affair but rallied to defeat Elias Silverio via decision by winning the final two rounds on the mat.
  • Home cooking was the name of game in fight #3 as Chris Beal turned in a dominant opening round and even got a 30-27 from one judge, but lost a spit decision to Chris Kelades. Beal faded in round 2, but it look like his top control time and significant strikes were enough to earn the nod.
  • Most new that the judges would not be required and most likely the Round 2 & 3 ring cards wouldn’t either. Marcos Rogerio de Lima attempted a couple of early subs, but failed to close the show. After a fence grab gave Nikita Krylov a positional advantage he locked in a RNC to earn his third straight win. Something needs to be done with fighters using the cage to re
  • A successful Bantamweight debut for Felipe Arantes came ended via first round submission. Yves Jabouin largely dominated the opening round with his takedowns, but a stiff up kick started the process that lead to Arantes locking up an armbar and subsequent win in the final moments of the first round.
  • In the final fight of the prelims, Sammy Stout potentially made his final appearance in the UFC, suffering his 3rd consecutive loss via knockout. Stout may get another shot in the UFC, but it in a deep Lightweight division the writing could be on the wall. For Frankie Perez, this was the biggest win of his career and apparently the last win as he announces his retirement at just 26 years of age. It takes a lot to walk away from the sport after a long career, he clearly feels it is his time to call it quits- best of luck Frankie going forward.

Main Card

Strawweight Contender

In the opening fight of the main card Valerie Letourneau picked up a unanimous decision win in a entertaining scrap with formerly undefeated and top 10 ranked Maryna Moroz. Letourneau landed the more impactful strikes throughout the fight and held top position while fending off her opponent’s sub attempts. Letourneau will crack the top 15, possibly the top 10 with the win and should be in line for a sizeable step up in competition.

The Quebec Kid Strikes Again

TUF Nations finalist, Olivier Aubin-Mercier earned another UFC win with a 3 round drubbing of striking based Tony Sims. OAM had a significant grappling advantage on paper and it translated inside the Octagon to a dominant performance from start to finish. The crowd’s interest appeared to wane near the end of the contest, but the victory represented a strong effort from the Canadian who continues to show growth in the early stages of his career.

Undefeated No More

Francisco Trinaldo put an abrupt stop to the undefeated run of TUF Nations winner Chad Laprise. The Canadian got off to a good start and pressured his foe, but ate a massive left hand that sent him tumbling to the mat. In an attempt to regain his sense Laprise pulled guard, but Trinaldo was having none of it and pummelled him from back mount until the official called an end to the contest.

Predator and Prey

In a battle of veterans, Patrick Cote and Josh Burkman went to war and threw caution to the wind for the duration of the fight. Burkman appeared to hurt Cote, but it was the Canadian who landed the biggest punch the fight dropping Josh to the mat and finishing him via TKO. Cote picks up his first stoppage win inside the Octagon in a number of years and hands Burkman the first loss of his career by TKO. Cote called out the still suspended Hector Lombard for his return fight in January in a bout that certainly makes a lot of sense for both men.

Back on the Horse

Neil Magny didn’t want to sit on his loss to Demian Maia for long and jumped back right into the cage with another dangerous Brazilian in Erick Silva. Magny earned a split decision win, landing a considerably higher number of strikes and have surprising success on the ground against the BJJ Black belt. Silva had a few moments of success, but hardly enough to have deserved the call from even one of the judges. Magny may consider campaigning for a fight with the man he replaced in Rick Story, as that fight could offer another step up in competition. Silva didn’t look nearly as strong as he has in the past, even in the opening round which is traditionally his best round. It might be worth noting that he didn’t look as muscular heading into this fight, possibly shedding mass in an attempt to improve his cardio.

Darn…

In a fight that looked like it couldn’t miss, it did. Max Holloway was awarded a TKO victory due to injury early in the opening round after Charles Oliveira clutched his neck and sank to the canvas. This fight had a tonne of potential that may never be realized. There is always the possibility that they rebook this bout once ‘do Bronx’ heals up, but that is a little unfair to Max who will want to move onto another fight instead of waiting around. Don’t be surprised if we do see them paired up again, but not right away. If Oliveira can return and earn a win or two and Holloway continues his winning ways than a reengagement would not be uncalled for. Either way, it’s too bad how this fight went down.

Final Thoughts…

These types of cards are difficult to sit through, at least from a predictor’s perspective. I started 2-0 and arguably could have been 3-0, but it was all downhill from there. The action was decent with Cote/Burkman stealing the show. There are a lot of questions regarding Erick Silva’s appearance, none positive and if he can’t even string together one dominant round he is working on borrowed time. The main event was a letdown, but possibly a blessing in disguise. Holloway gets the win and moves forward accordingly. Oliveira ‘losses’ the fight, but this type of loss isn’t nearly as devastating as a legit loss would have been. A few quick wins and this outing will be nothing more than a footnote. Seven upsets in 12 fights, a botched main event, and a relatively unproductive bet pack- UFC 191 can’t get here soon enough.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Erik Silva $1.60
Selection 2: Josh Burkman $1.79
Selection 3: Felipe Arantes $1.52 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $4.36 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 34.88
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Tony Sims $3.11
Selection 2: Marcos Rogerio de Lima $1.72
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Price: $5.35 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 21.4 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Charles Oliveira $3.20
Selection 2: Frankie Perez $1.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Chris Beal $1.61
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Price: $9.64 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 67.84 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Shane Campbell $3.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Erik Silva/ Neil Magny Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.40
Selection 3: Maryna Moroz/ Valarie Letourneau Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.85
Selection 4: Misha Cirkunov/Daniel Jolly Total Rounds Under $2.30 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $52.86 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 211.44 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Josh Burkman $1.79
Selection 2: Tony Sims $3.11
Selection 3: Charles Oliveira $3.20
Selection 4: Erik Silva/ Neil Magny Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.40
Selection 5: Marcos Rogerio de Lima/ Nikita Krylov Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $63.27 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 253.08 units
 

Misha Cirkunov $1.22 vs Daniel Jolly $5.15 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Cirkunov is a massive favourite and that makes him untouchable heading into this contest. Both he and Jolly are making their debut amongst a linty of other factors that could lead to an upset or a close enough fight that makes sweating the $1.22 simply not worth it. I will take a good long look at the total though.

4 STARS

Shane Campbell $3.36 vs Elias Silverio $1.40 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Riding the dog here. Campbell debuted on short notice and was looking very good against Makdessi. He was chewing up his legs so badly that ‘The Bull’ started looking for takedowns. He was also landing with his hands and bloody him up a bit. Silverio got off to a good start in the UFC against some lower level competition, but didn’t look so hot against Chavez and then got stopped by Magomedov. The deciding factor here is whether or not Silvera comes in looking to shoot. He said he was going to against the Russian and didn’t attempt a single shot. If he does that again here, Campbell’s value goes through the roof. The same can be said if Campbell can fend off his takedowns. I wouldn’t go all in on ‘Shaolin’, but looking back over Silverio’s body of work he has had trouble with active strikers and that is what Campbell brings to the table. Campbell probably works as a lower level invest in either a Parlay or single bet.

4 STARS

Chris Kelades $2.48 vs Chris Beal $1.61

Beal was incredibly underwhelming in his Flyweight debut. His opponent’s grittiness got the better of him and wore him down. Keep in mind that he made the move to 125 only 4 months removed from his last BW fight, now he has had 8-9 months off to make the cut more manageable. Kelades is feisty, but he really hasn’t impressed me in either of his fights. I think Holohan underestimated him and after winning the first half of the bout, slow down tremendously. Borg owned him, but there is now shame in that considering how good he is. Beal is the better striker and should be capable of keeping this fight standing to negate the greatest strength of Kelades. I still would like to see Beal get a win at 125 pounds before I go all in on him, but at this price he is still a decent play for a midlevel (Silver) parlay investment.

4 STARS

Marcos Rogerio de Lima $1.72 vs Nikita Krylov $2.30

I like Lima here and the price is encouraging, but I see scenario(s) that aren’t that improbable for Krylov to get the ‘W’. de Lima should be able to take Krylov out if he can unload on him. I am concerned that either Krylov survives the early barrage or takes de Lima down leading to the Brazilian gassing out. His submission D is a little suspect and Krylov is pretty crafty on the mat. It is also worth noting that Krylov’s cardio isn’t that great either so he might not be any better off. Krylov’s wins haven’t exactly been over top level competition and while he is fun fighter, I like de Lima’s striking to carry the day. I do like this play a fair bit despite the seeing ways that Krylov wins. I am on the fence, but de Lima could be one of my bigger bets for the weekend.

4 STARS

Yves Jabouin $2.90 vs Felipe Arantes $1.52 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Arantes, but there is one massive detractor in this fight which is the weight cut. He is moving to 135 pounds for the first time and I have seen more often than not that a move like this does not pay off. This isn’t the typical first cut matchup though as Jabouin is significantly older, on the downward turn of his career, and a former FW himself. The last point isn’t that significant considering he as been a BW for a while, but it is worth mentioning. Jabouin’s chin is a massive concern, especially considering that his main method of attack puts him at direct risk of getting tagged. I will keep an eye on the weigh-ins to see how Arantes looks but at this price there is a real potential that he will be part of my #1 play.

4 STARS

Sam Stout $2.18 vs Frankie Perez $1.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight represents a hard fall for a long running mid-tier UFC veteran in Stout. He is taking a sizeable step back in competition and after opening as the favourite, he is now the dog. How does Sammy win this fight? He has to push the pace and not stop. Keep moving forward and keep landing without taking damage. If he can find some success with his wrestling that would be huge. That being said, Perez appears to be the better wrestler and while his striking is a work in progress, Sammy’s attack has degraded so much it might not matter. Stout doesn’t mix up his attack like he use to and seems to struggle when forced to change his game plan. On top of all this, his chin is gone or at least significantly diminished. That was arguably his best asset. I don’t know if Perez can knock him out, but he could hurt him. Stout has been known to edge out close decisions which is concerning, but I still like Perez here. He has just 1 short notice UFC fight and it was a losing effort. I can’t invest a tonne into him considering I’m backing him more on his opponent’s faults, but I think a Silver level play might be warranted.

4 STARS

Maryna Moroz $1.56 vs Valarie Letourneau $2.69

I started breaking down this fight before and was a little surprised that Moroz was such a sizeable favourite. Her win over Jo Jo was huge, but it is just 1 win. Are we looking at the next female submission artist? I don’t know. It was an impressive win though and Letourneau got into a few exchanges on the mat in her last fight and found herself in a couple of bad spots. She overcame them, but Moroz is a lot more dangerous on the floor than Letourneau’s last adversary. I think Moroz is more than capable of catching her, but if she doesn’t it could be bad news. At this price I’m not a huge fan of a side bet, but I think the total has some potential and is worth a look.

4 STARS

Tony Sims $3.11 vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier $1.44

Sims impressed me in his debut and it was at WW on relatively short notice. His hands are slick, but it will be his counter wrestling that will need to be on point for this fight. OAM is very good on the ground, but it seems like he spends way too much time between successful takedowns. When he is forced to strike he is not nearly as dominant as he is on the mat. In fact, in this fight he will be at a significant disadvantage. Sims has serious power in both hands and his heavy reliance on his boxing works well here. The fewer kicks he throws the less likely he is to be taken down. If OAM takes him down then he is in control, but I think that he will be forced to trade with Sims and gets cracked in the process. If he doesn’t get knocked out we could see something similar to OAM/Laprise where he has less and less success scoring takedowns and minimal success on the mat. At this price I am leaning towards a single bet at potentially a very strong one.

4 STARS

Chad Laprise $1.29 vs Francisco Trinaldo $4.09

Trinaldo is a little hit or miss at times. Sometimes he looks good, other times he looks incredibly over-matched. Fighting outside of Brazil is certainly a big detractor for him. He got smashed the last time he headed outside of Brazil. This price line isn’t right though. He represents a set up for Laprise and quite honestly Chad didn’t wow me beyond the first round in his last fight. The Canadian is a No Play here, but a counter bet on Trinaldo might be possible.

4 STARS

Josh Burkman $1.79 vs Patrick Cote $2.20

This should be a good old fashion scrap, unless Cote finds continued success with his new calculated approach. Burkman’s aggression should give him an edge on the feet and while both guys have good chins, I think we are close to seeing Cote’s finally get cracked. There have been signs that it isn’t what it use to be. Cote’s ground game has worked for him, but he has also got himself into a little trouble at times. Burkman can exploit those mistakes and if Cote leaves his neck exposed on a sloppy TDA he could get guillotined. Burkman’s aggression and positional advantage on the mat are the keys to his success. At this price I think we works as part of my top parlay of the night.

4 STARS

Erik Silva $1.60 vs Neil Magny $2.65

This is a quick turn around for Magny after a pretty tough fight that snapped his lengthy winning streak. Unfortunately I don’t think this is a good matchup. Maia is an elite level grappler, Silva isn’t on his technical level but is still incredibly talented on the ground a more physically gifted athlete. When you couple those two scenarios together I expect to see Magny defending off his back early and often. If he can survive the early exchanges than he could turn the tables and dominate a fading Silva in the second half of the fight. I wouldn’t be that shocked to see Silva not get the sub in the first round but come out and win the second round with his grappling game. At this price and seeing how easily Silva has dispatched most of his opponents that he can get on the mat he is my play here. He will most likely make an appearance on my top parlay and the total will be played as well.

4 STARS

Max Holloway $1.46 vs Charles Oliveira $3.20

This is going to be a good scrap, far better than these odds suggest. The only way I see this fight not providing a great back and forth battle is if Max scores an early knockout or Charles locks up a quick sub. Both scenarios are possible. I like both guys, a lot, it is too bad one has to lose. Holloway has come along way and I see the striking realm of this fight being to his advantage- but not by much. Oliveira is a very capable striker with a dynamic offense. On the mat, again Holloway has improved significantly- but he is not on the level of ‘do Bronx’ . In fact, I think he has improved enough to get himself in trouble. Before Max might have disengaged in a grappling exchange, now I think he might hang out long enough to get in trouble. I think we see another leap in Oliveiras wresting in this fight. Additionally, with Max’s constantly on a swivel looking to defend striking and grappling/wrestling attacks he will be stunted in his own offense. This is a good fight, I like the multi-dimensional attack of Oliveira and at this price we can either place a strong single bet or put him in a secondary parlay. Charles’s quality of opponent prevents me from going all-in with a massive parlay play.

 

1. Erik Silva $1.60

2. Misha Cirkunov $1.22 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Felipe Arantes $1.52 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Chad Laprise $1.29

5. Josh Burkman $1.79

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6. Marcos Rogerio de Lima $1.72

7. Chris Beal $1.61

8. Frankie Perez $1.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Tony Sims $3.11

10. Charles Oliveira $3.20

11. Maryna Moroz $1.56

12. Shane Campbell $3.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Tony Sims $3.11 – Sims’s boxing is pretty sharp and if he keeps this fight standing the odds he is the superior striker and should be considered the favourite.

2. Marcos Rogerio de Lima $1.72 – He is a berserker and will come out storming Krylov who is quite hittable. He only needs 1 flush connection to his opponent down. He gets it early.

3. Charles Oliveira $3.20 – High quality of opponent knocks him out of the top 2. In close fight I like to back the more diverse fighter- Oliveira is just that.

4. Josh Burkman $1.79– Burkman’s aggression can cost him, but it might actually do him a favour here against a fighter that wants to keep things a little more even keel. Betting against a Canadian in Canada, I’ll take my chances.

5. Shane Campbell $3.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– His lack of UFC cage time pushes him down a couple of spots here- EPU pick here.

1. Francisco Trinaldo $4.09 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– Either Trinaldo is being under-valued or Laprise is being over-valued. Either way this price is a little too high not to take a shot at.

2. Valarie Letourneau $2.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– I was hoping that this line would be closer. Letourneau might have had a bit of rough cut considering she missed 115 on the first try, but if she continues to rise she is worth a look.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content

Prop Bets

Misha Cirkunov/Daniel Jolly 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Shane Campbell/ Elias Silverio

See Betting Scenario Section.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima/ Nikita Krylov Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This really shouldn’t be that hard to see. Both guys have a tonne of first round kills under their belt. de Lima has only gone beyond the first frame in 1 of his last 6 fights and for Krylov its once in 22 fights. Both guys will come out exceptionally aggressive and the chances of this contest seeing the 2nd round are minimal. It is certainly not impossible, but at this price and knowing and how these guys fight this is an excellent addition to a parlay to boost the return.

Sam Stout/ Frankie Perez

See Betting Scenario Section.

Maryna Moroz/ Valarie Letourneau Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.85

Moroz has finished all of her opponents inside the first round with the exception of 1, her debut, which lasted only 72 seconds into round 2. She will be looking for a sub right away, but if she doesn’t get it look for Letourneau to start dropping bombs from top position. Moroz’s lack of long fight experience could result in a major drop off if she can’t get the early win. A first round stoppage/ under is certainly a play worth a look at this price.

Chad Laprise/ Francisco Trinaldo Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.43

Not a super flashy play, but one that will add a little extra to a parlay. They have a combined 14 decisions between them and have gone the distance in a combined 10 straight fights. I don’t see a finish in most scenarios so play the Over here.

Erik Silva/ Neil Magny Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.40

Silva is an absolute first round killer- all 6 of his UFC wins have come in the first plus a seventh if you want to include the Prater fight. There is always the risk that Magny survives the early onslaught and drags this bout to a decision or late stoppage. His defensive grappling is pretty weak, which is tailor made for what Silva brings to the table.

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