TUF 23 Finale Bet Pack

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Parlay #1 

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Selection 1: Joanna Jedrzejczyk -120

Selection 2: Joaquim Silva -117 

Selection 3: Kevin Lee +150 

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Price: +750 Bet: 10 units

Payout: 75.01 units

 

 

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Parlay #1

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Selection 1: Gray Maynard -137 

Selection 2: Anthony Smith -120 

Selection 3: Doo Ho Choi/Thiago Tavares Total Rounds Under 1.5 -129 

Selection 4: Will Brooks to Win by Decision -120 

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Price: +932  x Bet: 9 units

Payout: 83.90 units

 

 

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Parlay #1 

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Selection 1: Matheus Nicolau +158 

Selection 2: Joaquim Silva/Andrew Holbrook Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110 

Selection 3: Anton Zafir/Li Jingliang Total Rounds Under 1.5 +135 

Selection 4: Gray Maynard to Win by Decision +195 

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Price: +3656  x Bet: 6 units

Payout: 219.36 units

 

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Parlay #1

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Selection 1: Joanna Jedrzejczyk to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +400 

Selection 2: Anthony Smith/Cezar Ferreira Total Rounds Under 1.5 -115 

Selection 3: Kevin Lee +150 

Selection 4: Doo Ho Choi -195 

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Price: +3435  x Bet: 8 units 

Payout: 274.83 units

 

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Kamikaze

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Fighter 1: Joanna Jedrzejczyk $10100 

Fighter 2: Anthony Smith $10400 

Fighter 3: Joaquim Silva $9600 

Fighter 4: Matheus Nicolau $8800 

Fighter 5: Doo Ho Choi $10800  

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Salary Remaining:

 

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Overdrive

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Fighter 1: Joanna Jedrzejczyk $10100 

Fighter 2: Matheus Nicolau $8800 

Fighter 3: Kevin Lee $9500 

Fighter 4: Gray Maynard $10000 

Fighter 5: Li Jingliang $10900 

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Salary Remaining:  

 

Draftking Breakdown

I like JJ in both lineups, she is inexpensive and will either score a finish or put up a tonne of volume over 5 rounds. At $10100 she is a steal. I also backed Nicolau in both lineups simply because I feel that Moraga is overrated and he freed up the cash to grab the bigger hitters needed to score the big points. Smith & Choi are guys that both can finish and are facing opponents that have been finished a lot. Silva is also has solid value for Team Kamikaze at $9600. He is the vastly superior striker and should have the grappling chops to keep Holbrook out of his wheelhouse. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Maynard go the distance, but it will be based on takedowns and top control. Bruno is overmatched here, so if Maynard can wear him down or land a clean shot a knockout could materialize. Lee and Li round out team Overdrive. Li is the more likely to finish against a pretty weak opponent. Lee will pile up striking points along with a few takedowns. I would use these teams together in the same contests where available. They compliment one and other nicely. Clearly JJ and Nicolau are massive players that will decide how we score.

 

 

Claudia Gadelha +115 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk -127 

That first fight was a close one and I was leaning towards CG, because I picked her and had a lot of money riding on that fight. After rewatching the bout, I was far less convinced that it was a robbery. CG didn’t do a tonne with her takedowns and JJ was having success on the feet when they traded. The damage done by the headbutt probably further amplified how the judges view the results of what JJ was offering. CG has only faught once since and looked very much the same and now she is coming off a layoff. JJ has been more active and appears to have improved both her TDA and her striking offense. I still expect to see her give up some takedowns early, but as the fight progresses, shes will take over the exchanges. I’ve got JJ in my Gold Parlay.

Update: See the Draftkings section above for lineups and a brief breakdown of the plays.

The DK Lineups and breakdowns will be posted later in the week when the Contests open.

 

Ross Pearson +314 vs Will Brooks -356 

Hard pass here on a side bet. Brooks is debuting and will enter with a significant amount of pressure considering he is the Bellator champion. Possible Counter bet in the making here.

 

Doo Ho Choi -195 vs Thiago Tavares +174 

A bet on Choi is tempting, but the total is probably the better overall option. I will break that play down in the Prop section. Choi could find his way into a play somewhere on my Bet card, but right now the total is the way to go. See the Prop Section for more info.

Joaquim Silva -124 vs Andrew Holbrook +113 

I like this play here. Holbrook is aggressive on the mat, but not much else. Against Nijem, he relied on Ramsey to get the fight to the mat during most of the exchanges. Had Nijem backed off and forced AH to exchange with him on the feet, I think he wold have taken the decision with ease and possibly stopped him. In Silva’s last fight, he recognized his foe’s skills on the mat and stayed off the floor. I see something similar here. Between Holbrook’s striking and how he deals with getting hit- that is not a favourable situation for the American. Silva may even have the skills to deal with Holbrook on the mat and prevent him from scoring offense off his back. Either way, Joaquim takes this fight. At this price he is a solid play and joins JJ in my Gold Parlay.

Gray Maynard -137 vs Fernando Bruno +128 

Wow, this is a far tumble for Maynard. Basically, the UFC is handing him a low-level opponent with ZERO wins by knockout and giving him the chance to get a win. If he can’t its over. He is moving to FW, which could jump start his career or it could prove too hard on his body and further diminish what he is capable of. Bruno will want this fight on the mat, which won’t be an easy task against Gray. There is always the chance that Maynard gets clipped during an exchange, but Bruno isn’t that good on his feet. I think Gray gets the job done here and does so with relative ease. Despite how I think this fight plays out, I can’t trust Maynard as part of my Gold parlay. This line is actually pretty decent, so he falls in my Silver parlay.

John Moraga -170 vs Matheus Nicolau +158 

I haven’t been impressed with Moraga in quite a while, if ever. He doesn’t use his wrestling offensively, he gives up too many takedowns, and he isn’t active enough with his striking. He has been out-landed in 5 of his last 7 fights, relying on a gift decision and a couple of submissions to avoid going winless. I picked Moraga over Ortiz, but I felt Ortiz should have got the nod. Cariaso was coming on and looking good until the sub finish, and Scoggins was in control prior to getting caught. That leaves Gates has his best win during his current run which isn’t that impressive. Nicolau is young and should be active with his striking. He is decent on the mat, but I feel he will simply outwork Moraga. This line is skewed by Moraga’s title shot notoriety and  Nicolau’s lack of a big name. I’m playing the dog here, but he will slip to the Bronze section.

Anthony Smith -135 vs Cezar Ferreira +130 

This bout is probably not going to go the distance, hence I will be hammering the total and/or method props. Both guys have been finished a lot. Smith seems to have cleaned up those issues over his current winning streak, but that could also be connected to his quality of opposition. Ferreira has a brutal chin. He has been knocked out 4 times, not TKO losses, knocked out cold. That isn’t encouraging. His striking defense is also pretty horrible too- he gets hit a lot and would get hit more if his durability was better. Smith is very aggressive with his striking and offers a pretty decent array of offensive weapons. He is a big MW, like Cezar, so I don’t see Ferreira bullying him or keeping him on the outside like he was able to do against Oluwale. If Ferreira can take him down with regularity, that is his key to victory, but Smith is pretty decent off his back. I expect ‘Lionheart’ will be vertical long enough to hurt Ferreira and take him out. I am leaning towards using Smith in my Silver parlay as well as incorporating a prop bet into a parlay lower higher on the risk/reward ladder.

Jake Matthews -158 vs Kevin Lee +150 

Both fighters have had recent surprising losses and have since rebounded. But, Matthews was heading towards another defeat against Case until he cracked with a body kick and finished the fight late in the third. His lack of success hinged heavily on his inability to get the fight to the mat. Case has had some issues with his TDD in fights, but Matthews still struggle to put him down early and was losing the fight on the feet and event spending some time on his back. Lee is a solid striker and doesn’t get hit a lot. Matthews has a few weapons on the feet, but he telegraphs his offense and Lee should be able to avoid most of it. Lee also has solid TDD and could very well work his own wrestling. I see Matthews getting frustrated against a fighter that does a good job of keeping things simple and shutting down his opponent. I’ve got Lee in my Gold Parlay.

Anton Zafir +270 vs Li Jingliang -311  

I see Li winning this bout, but Anton is a bit of a wildcard based on the circumstances surrounding his debut. We really don’t know that much. It is probably worth staying away and taking a look at the total.

 

 

1. Joaquim Silva -124 

2. Li Jingliang -311 

3. Joanna Jedrzejczyk -127 

4. Will Brooks -356 

5. Gray Maynard -137 

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6. Anthony Smith -135 

7. Doo Ho Choi -195 

8. Kevin Lee +150 

9. Matheus Nicolau +158 

 

1. Kevin Lee +150 

2. Matheus Nicolau +158 

3. Joaquim Silva -124 

4. Doo Ho Choi/Thiago Tavares Total Rounds Under 1.5 -129 

5. Anthony Smith/Cezar Ferreira Total Rounds Under 1.5 -115 

1. Ross Pearson +314-  If Brooks struggles at all with making the transition to the UFC, Pearson is scrappy enough to edge this fight out. If ‘Ill’ Will is unable to work his wrestling, this because a much closer fight. Small counter bet here if your parlay comes down to Brooks or if you have a little extra cash and opted to leave Brooks off all together.

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Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

 

Claudia Gadelha/Joanna Jedrzejczyk 

See Betting Scenario Section

Will Brooks to Win by Decision -120 

There is a lot of pressure on Brooks coming into this fight. Sometimes that can lead a fighter to rise to the occasion or revert back to what they know best. I’m looking for Brooks to use his wrestling to grind Pearson down, hold top position, and take the Brit’s striking out of the equation. Ross really struggled with the wrestling of Dunham, which lead to a decision loss. Brooks has gone the distance in 7 of his las 8 fights, I think he makes it 8 of 9.

Doo Ho Choi/Thiago Tavares Total Rounds Under 1.5 -129 

This is the type of play that has both fighters finishing abilities working in your favour. Choi has gone the distance just twice in 14 wins, finishing 9 in the opening round. He has massive power and is a very slick striker. Tavares has been knocked out 4 times and has a pretty questionable chin. It Choi hits him, he is going down. The big question mark is his grappling defense. We haven’t seen him tested against a strong ground fighter and that is what Thiago represents. Tavares has finished 14 fights by submission and 16 overall compared to 4 decisions. His last 3 wins all came by opening round submission and if Choi can’t deal with him on the mat it will be a fourth. Play the Under.

Joaquim Silva/Andrew Holbrook Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110 

Holbrook is constantly looking to finish and if gets the chance he will lock up a sub for the finish. He also puts himself in bad spots, which Silva will be able to capitalize on. On the feet, Nijem cracked him a few times and appeared to hurt him. Silva is a pretty decent striker and should be able to do some damage, look for him to counter a telegraph TDA with a well-placed knee. I like the under here, especially with the extra round.

Gray Maynard/Fernando Bruno 

See Betting Scenario Section

Anthony Smith/Cezar Ferreira Total Rounds Under 1.5 -115 

I don’t need a lot of detail to explain this pick. Both guys have been finished multiple times and are capable finishers. I’m really banking on Ferreira’s chin giving out against an early barrage from Smith, but opposite scenario could hold true as well or sub could materialize for the Brazilian. Play the Under.

Jake Matthews/Kevin Lee

See Betting Scenario Section- I will wait for the bet card to be posted to consider it an official Scenario play.

Anton Zafir/Li Jingliang 

See Betting Scenario Section- I will wait for the bet card to be posted to consider it an official Scenario play.