UFN 69: Jędrzejczyk vs Penne – ‘And Still…’

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Unfortunately do to a scheduling conflict I was unable to watch UFC Fight Night 69, therefore I am not in a position to thoroughly comment on the fights. Joanna Jędrzejczyk did look fantastic in her first title defense and finished off Jessica Penne who should be given props for hanging in with the champion. Tatsuya Kawajiri won an uneventful decision over Dennis Siver, aided by a lack of stand ups fro the official despite his minimal activity. There were a number of stoppages and a handful of upset. I look forward to catching up on the action once my prep for UFC Fight Night 70 is done. You can take a look at the bet pack posted below.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Mairbek Taisumov $1.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Nick Hein $1.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $2.68 x Bet: 12 units
Payout: 32.16 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Dennis Siver $1.61
Selection 2: Ulka Sasaki $1.39
Selection 3: Niklas Backstrom $1.49
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Price: $3.34 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 23.38 units
 
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Piotr Hallmann $1.91
Selction 2: Peter Sobotta $1.41 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Makwan Amirkhani $1.46 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Alan Omer $1.51
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Price: $5.94 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 29.70
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Dennis Siver to Win by Decision $2.47
Selection 2: Mairbek Taisumov $1.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Piotr Hallmann $1.91
Selection 4: Scott Askham $1.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $11.16 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 44.64 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Joanna Jedrzejczyk to Win by Decision $3.00
Selection 2: Ulka Sasaki/ Taylor Lapilus Total Rounds under 1.5 $2.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Nick Hein $1.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Alan Patrick/ Mairbek Taisumov Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $24.36 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 121.8 units
 

Ulka Sasaki $1.39 vs Taylor Lapilus $3.25

This fight involves a scenario that I intend to investigate/ produce some hard numbers on, once the UFC stops kicking out an event every weekend. Lapilus is cutting down to Bantamweight after debuting at 145 pounds and fighting their previously. That does not bode well for him. Additionally, having fought under rules that don’t allow for ground based strikes is going to eventually catch up with him. Sasaki lost a little bit of his shine in his last fight, but he is still a more then capable of winning this fight. The price doesn’t jump off the page at me, but I am still quite confident he wins this fight. I am leaning towards a Gold parlay leg here and I will also look at the total.

4 STARS

Piotr Hallmann $1.91 vs Magomed Mustafaev $2.03

Here is one of the closer lined fights. Mustafaev enters with the momentum and expectations of several successful fighters from his country that have hit the UFC before him. He has been on the shelf for a bit which is concerning, but he is fairly dangerous fighter all around. Conversely, I really like Hallmann’s toughness and durability to give MM difficulty. Hallmann has shown good wrestling and has kept himself in fights against tough opponents. MM has finishing skills, but if he can’t get the win here can he maintain his performance int the second half. Hallmann may need to survive a scare early, but I feel he grinds this one out. I like the price and I will take a long look at including him in my Gold Parlay leg. At the very least he is a key piece of a Silver parlay play.4 STARS

Scott Askham $1.45 vs Antonio dos Santos Jr. $2.85 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was hoping that this line might be a little closer. Askham lost by a wide margin in his debut. He did score a knockdown, but he had nothing for his opponents takedowns and spent way too much time on his back. Conversely, dos Santos was looking good is his debut and possibly winning the fight before the finger injury shut him down. Askham will be looking to turn the tables on ADS with his clinch game, takedowns, and top position offense. If he stands with the Brazilian his length and kicking game should limit the damage he takes at range, but he doesn’t want him on the inside slinging heavy leather. I would like to see Askham pick up a UFC win before I go overboard betting on him. I’m thinking A Silver parlay leg or possible Bronze is the way to go here.

4 STARS

Niklas Backstrom $1.49 vs Noad Lahat $2.85

Like the fight above I was hoping the line would be a little closer based on their recent outing. Lahat is coming off a pretty decent win and Backstrom got starched in the opening round. I gave a lot of thought to playing Lahat here. He has a very solid top game and a nice variety of takedown skills. Backstrom did get taken down a couple of times in his debut fight and if Lahat can repeat that he could keep him down on route to a decision. Backstrom has a more well rounded game and his size will give Lahat trouble. I feel good enough about Backstrom to throw him into the Gold parlay, but he may slip into the Silver pack. I am also looking at a hedge bet on Lahat here.4 STARS

Arnold Allen $2.75 vs Alan Omer $1.51

Allen is a very late notice replacement. Very. Omer has been out of action for a quite a while. It is quite the juxtaposition. Allen is also quite a bit younger and inexperience. Omer has just 1 UFC fight on his record, but he handled himself fairly well. I am tempted to play Omer on a lower level investment, but I could just as easily pass all together.4 STARS

Alan Patrick $2.45 vs Mairbek Taisumov $1.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is probably one of my strongest plays. Patrick’s striking is a little on the sloppy side and he lacks a solid ground game. I don’t see him having the type of wrestling/ grappling skills that Prazeres used to ground Mairbek and unless he lands a big shot Taisumov is the superior fighter everywhere. His wrestling game will let him dictate where this fight takes place and a more technically sound striking game will give him the advantage when they are exchanging. Patrick has been away for a while so there is potential for progress, but there is just as much potential for ring rust. Taisumov makes the cut for one of my top investments.

4 STARS

Makwan Amirkhani $1.46 vs Masio Fullen $3.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

After seeing how far the other TUF Latin America fighters came I am a little leery on this fight. Additionally, a quick ‘knockout’ like the one Amirkhani pulled off against Ogle is lovely, but its still leaves a lot of questions. For those reason this fight isn’t that enticing. I could work it into one of my lower investment or it is just an outright a No Play for me.

4 STARS

Nick Hein $1.64 vs Lukasz Sajewski $2.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Hein reminds me a little of Sean Sherk. Physically strong, grappling base, throws with power, and sometimes forgoes his grappling skills for his striking. I like the price here on Hein. I felt he handled himself well against Vick and had he pushed the action a little more he could have taken a clear decision. Hein is fighting at home against a fighter that has been on a bit of a layoff and is making his debut. I don’t see Sajewski landing takedowns and his striking game isn’t strong enough to get the better of the aggressiveness and power that Hein brings. I like this play at this price, Hein is a Gold parlay leg for sure.

4 STARS

Steven Kennedy $3.35 vs Peter Sobotta $1.41 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

A late notice replacement, making his debut, and taking a big step up in competition. Sobotta on the other hand is fighting for the 5th time in the UFC, at home (for the most part), and had a full camp. He looked quite good in his re-debut and offers a pretty well-rounded attack. I’m not ready to go all in on Sobotta after just 1 win and Kennedy is a bit of an unknown, but I think he earns a strong nod in the Silver section.

4 STARS

Tatsuya Kawajiri $2.59 vs Dennis Siver $1.61

Here is another one of my central plays for the card. Neither guy is what they use to be, but I think that it holds more true for Kawajiri. He struggled tremendously dragging Soriano to the mat and nearly gassed out in the process. Guida cracked him and he was in some serious trouble, which is concerning considering the level of Clay’s striking. Siver should be able to out-strike him bv a considerable margin and defend the TDA’s to the point that Tatsuya gets tired. At this price point Siver makes the cut into the Gold parlay plan.

4 STARS

Joanna Jedrzejczyk $1.15 vs Jessica Penne $6.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Pretty lopsided odds for the champion here, but we did just see a heavily favoured champ go down less then a week ago. Keep in mind that this bout was tossed together to save a card that had lost its main event. Penne comes in on the strength of just 1 UFC win compared to 3 for the champion. JJ is a striking jedi. Just as important, she has beaten opponents with better wrestling than Penne. If Jessica can’t get this fight to the mat she lacks the striking repertoire both offensively and defensively to hang with the champ. Her lack of solid head movement and footwork will be her undoing. I expect JJ to dominate her and potentially take her out. From a betting perspective the price is pretty weak so I will most likely pass on it, but I could consider a bet on the total.

1. Joanna Jedrzejczyk $1.15 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Ulka Sasaki $1.39

3. Mairbek Taisumov $1.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Nick Hein $1.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Dennis Siver $1.61

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6. Niklas Backstrom $1.49

7. Peter Sobotta $1.41 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Makwan Amirkhani $1.46 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Piotr Hallmann $1.91

10. Alan Omer $1.51

11. Scott Askham $1.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Mairbek Taisumov $1.63 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– His opponent is at sever speed and technical disadvantage. Get this price before it drops too low.

2. Nick Hein $1.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– Hein will be pumped to fight in front of the home crowd and all indications are he will dictate if/ when the fight hits the floor which isn’t good for an opponent that relies so heavily on his mat game.

3. Dennis Siver $1.61 – A battle of old warhorse. Siver has the more well rounded game and would appear to have a little more in the gas tank. I almost opted to put the Decision prop in its place here.

4. Joanna Jedrzejczyk to Win by Decision $3.00 – She could very well stop Penne, but I see this fight being more like the norm of late than the outcome of the Esparza fight which was the exception.

5. Piotr Hallmann $1.91 – The unknown factor surrounding his opponent pushed Hallmann down the list a bit. I feel betting against a fighter debuting while cutting down a division after a long layoff is a strong play.

1. Noad Lahat $2.85 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– I felt like this line isn’t truly representing the true capabilities of Lahat. Parlaying him with dos Santos is a nice hedge combo.

2. Antonio dos Santos Jr. $2.85 – He looked good in his first fight, I think he might be worth a shot here. See above.

3.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Betting Scenario Information

Prop Bets

Ulka Sasaki/ Taylor Lapilus 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario’s Section

Piotr Hallmann/ Magomed Mustafaev

See Betting Scenario’s Section

Alan Patrick/ Mairbek Taisumov Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

22 of Taisumov’s 23 wins have come via stoppage. He has scored knockouts of his last 2 opponents, with the longer of the 2 bouts reaching just the 38 second mark of round 2. Of his 22 stoppages 13 have come in the first frame and all have finished inside the 2.5 limit. Patrick will leave himself open to take damage and ring rust could put him at a disadvantage from the start. Play the Under.

Makwan Amirkhani/ Masio Fullen

Se the Betting Scenario Section.

Dennis Siver to Win by Decision $2.47

I thought about playing the Over here, I am pretty confident that Siver wins and while Crusher’s chin is a bit of concern- I will take a shot at Dennis on the cards. Siver has gone the distance 10 times, 8 in victory. 6 of his last 7 wins have gone the distance as well, with his last stoppage victory coming all the way back at UFC 122 versus Andre Winner-10 fights ago. Play him by decision, but the Over is doable at a much smaller price if that is all your book offers.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk to Win by Decision $3.00

I know, I know, I know…I just finished writing that I felt JJ can stop Penne. So, why am I on the Decision prop. For starters it pays well. Secondly, there is always the fact that we are overvaluing her knockout of Esparaza and assuming she will do it every time. Thirdly, she has gone the distance 4 times in her last 6 fights. And finally, Penne has been stopped inside the distance just once- by sub. Penne is a smart fighter and I think she could survive and endure the onslaught for the full 5. Also keep in mind that the pressure has shifted to Joanna now as she assumes the role of the heavy favourite. It could impact her performance. I like the line here, I will take the champ on the cards.

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