UFN 67: Condit vs Alves- ‘Brazil or Bust’

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The successful return of a top ranked Welterweight contender and the continued rise of two talented Featherweights highlighted the night’s happening in Brazil for UFC Fight Night 67. We were also ‘treated’ to some lackluster bouts and the typical shenanigans that we have come to expect from Brazilian events. Let’s take a look at some of the high and lowlights of the night’s action.

One to Watch

Mirsad Bektic put his name on the map as a Featherweight prospect to watch. After back to back decision wins to start his UFC career, he blasted through the overmatched Lucas Martins in just over a round. He showed improved footwork and a relentless top game that will certainly earn him a step up in competition in the growing Featherweight division.

Golden Future?

While the fight was largely contested on the feet, Jussier Formiga still emerged with the victory. He scored a second round knockdown of Wilson Reis and he was told heading into the third round by his corner that he was ahead two rounds. That ultimately lead to a fairly inactive final frame, as Formiga appeared to give the round away with a muted offensive output prior to mounting his opponent in the final moments of the round. In a division dominated by a champion known for his cardio, giving rounds away and coasting isn’t something you want to see out of potential challengers.

Mid-Level Struggles

Norman Parke could do nothing but shake his head when the split decision was read, but the fault was only his to bear. Francisco Trinaldo appeared to turn the tables on the TUF winner by pushing the pace in round 2 and outworking Parke. Norman stormed back in final frame and controlled the big Brazilian on the mat for the duration of the round, but it was not enough to earn him the win. Trinaldo will continue to be a staple on the Brazilian cards, while Parke’s back will be against the wall the next time he steps into the cage. In his post fight interview he stated that he would never fight in Brazil again, that is probably for the best.

He Must Have Got Them Both

Ryan Jimmo got tagged with a brutal low blow. It was so hard that they brought a bucket into the cage. A bucket. Francimar Barosso got the win, but the groin shot was the most noteworthy aspect of the fight.

Out of Sorts

In a bout that many expected to be contested on the feet, it was decided instead on the floor. Alex Oliveira took home just his second career win by submission, tapping KJ Noons by RNC. The win served as a little redemption for Oliveira who lost via sub only moments away from a victorious decision in his debut.

Worth the Wait

The return engagement was a long time in the making, but it was worth the wait. Nik Lentz and Charles Oliveira both had their moments; Oliveira winning the first round and Lentz appearing to control the middle frame. It was the final round that brought about the end, with the Brazilian locking up the neck of his foe and forcing the tap. With the win, Oliveira has now won 4 in a row and appears primed to take a shot at the upper echelon of the division. This fight is my clear winner of FOTN, even before the main event gets started.

Back in the Saddle

With one vicious elbow strike Carlos Condit put himself right back in the title conversation. After a competitive opening round that could have been awarded to Thiago Alves, Condit blasted his foe with a nasty elbow and proceeded to unload with a bloody barrage. Alves attempted to return fire and even threatened with standing guillotine, but Condit ended the round strong. Before the third round started the cage side doctor stepped in and deemed that Alves’s badly broken nose was too severe an injury to allow him to continue.

Condit is a fighter that has potentially dragged himself out title contention purgatory. After having lost to both GSP and Johnny Hendricks, he seemed stuck on the outside looking in. Now, with the current champion presenting a stylistically entertaining fight for the fans and the next challenger a man that he already has a win over- all systems are go for a potential shot at the title. More than likely he needs another win to get another shot at the title, but his prospective future looks much better than it did 16 months ago.

Final Thoughts

Consistency has been my biggest issue. I can’t seem to string together consecutive events with good predictions records to save my life. Changes need to be made to my approach to predicting. I will work on it. This card had some highs and lows. The final 2 fights were the best on the card and help to promote 2 solid contenders in their respective divisions. UFC Fight Night 68 is, you guessed it, next weekend! Let’s get it going.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Charles Oliveira $1.39 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Ryan Jimmo $1.41
Selection 3: Alex Oliveira $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Norman Parke $1.41
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Price: $4.98 x Bet: 12 units
Payout: 59.76 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Juliana Lima $1.53 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Wilson Reis $2.43
Selection 3: Tom Breese $1.61 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $5.99 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 47.92 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Wendell Oliveira $1.91
Selection 2: Damon Jackson $2.69
Selection 3: Lentz/ Oliveira Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $10.54 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 63.24 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Thiago Alves $3.36
Selection 2: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $4.19
Selection 3: Wilson Reis $2.43
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Price: $34.22 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 171.1 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Lentz/ Oliveira Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Barroso/ Jimmo Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.15
Selection 3: Wilson Reis $2.43
Selection 4: Thiago Alves $3.36
Selection 5: Alex Oliveira $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $64.78 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 388.68
 

Luiz Dutra $2.58 vs Tom Breese $1.61 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight has an absolute tonne of red flags so bet with caution. Breese appears to have the technical advantage and that is ultimately why I went with him. If Dutra can turn this into a dog fight that is his best chance, but I suspect that Breese will take him down with regularity and either submit him or control him on route to a decision. The price tag here is decent, probably where you want to see a new guy that is considered a favourite. He won’t be a central investment, but something in the Silver section works for me.

4 STARS

Juliana Lima $1.53 vs Ericka Almeida $2.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

The women’s division, especially at 115 outside the UFC is fairly thin. As a result it can be hard to get a good handle on the incoming fighters. Almeida has had success but not against anyone really of note. Lima held her own in her debut against the woman who is now holding the title and defeated a fighter who brought a capable sub game into the cage in her last fight. Unless Almeida catches her early I expect to see Lima controlling top position and grinding her way to victory. I don’t like investing a lot in a fight early on the card, but I am tempted to use Lima in a Gold parlay. She is fighting for the third time in the UFC and has a good price against a relatively untested short notice opponent. I am on the fence and could go either way- either a fringe Gold play or strong Silver.

4 STARS

Lucas Martins $5.00 vs Mirsad Bektic $1.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Martins seems to pop up and every now and again and cost me money. I don’t see him upending Bektic here, but with this line I will most likely pass. I could see it getting worse as we get to bell time, don’t be shocked if Beks is below the $1.20. No Play.

4 STARS

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $4.19 vs Nicolas Dalby $1.29

A very big upset pick here, based on the numbers at least. dos Santos has massive power and Dalby gets hit way too much for my liking. I understand why Dalby is a heavy favourite based on his skill set; good striker with workable wrestling- but as a debuting fighter, coming to Brazil from Europe, facing a guy that hits like a tank I will take the risk. Not even close to considering him a Gold Play, probably something in the Bronze range.

4 STARS

Jussier Formiga $1.69 vs Wilson Reis $2.43

This bout should be the headlining act of the undercard because the winner will find themselves on a short list of future title contenders. Stylistically these two share a lot of similarities. I opted to go with the underdog here because he has the better striking game and Formiga’s ability to win a fight is severely compromised if his grappling is a non-factor. The body kick that Reis hit on Jorgensen was very well executed and clearly painful. Reis should be able to keep Jussier away from top position and I wouldn’t be shocked if he scored some takedowns of his own. Still, if Reis wins it will be because he spends a lot of time on his feet. I’m leaning towards this as a stronger play, potentially working its way into the Gold section.

4 STARS

Rony Jason $1.57 vs Damon Jackson $2.69

Another upset on the undercard. I am simply not impressed with Jason, his only win in his last 3 came over a released fighter and it was questionable at best. Jackson held his own on short notice, debuting, in a division above his regular home, against a fighter on the rise. I see Jason coming in with a striking based attack and that should create opportunities for Damon to be the more diverse striker. Land some takedowns, at least threaten with them, and find success outworking Jason on the feet. Betting against a Brazilian in Brazil is a tough proposition, you know it and I’ve said it before, but we need to break eggs to make an omelette. Quite possibly a Gold parlay leg in DJ’s future.

4 STARS

Wendell Oliveira $1.91 vs. Darren Till $2.03

A decent line here. Till is a newcomer and Oliveira has had just a few fleeting moments in the UFC. Till also is taking this fight on short notice, debuting as mentioned, and doing it all in enemy territory. Both are strikers, both have the ability to knock the other out. Both also are capable counter strikers- let’s hope we don’t get into a fight where one waits to counter the others counter and they just stare at each other. I will go with the Brazilian, not a massive lean up at this line enough to use him in a moderate play.

4 STARS

Norman Parke $1.41 vs. Francisco Trinaldo $3.21

A lot of people were unimpressed with Parke against Tibau, but they forget just how solid that big Brazilian is. Many people are also calling Trinaldo a ‘poor man’s Tibau’. This is false. Trinaldo’s TDD is the first issue. While Tibau has arguably the best in the division, Trinaldo’s is at the other end of the scale. Secondly, while his wrestling won him in his last fight- offensively it is well below Tibau’s. Tibau is also much tigher with his striking than Trinaldo. Physically they share similar characteristics, but that is about it. These two areas will be his undoing here. The Brazil’s judges love Trinaldo and Parke has already laid a partial goose egg in his last trip to South America, but I think he gets the job done here. He should be able to outpace him on the feet and land a few key takedowns, especially in the second half of the fight. Parke seems like a candidate for a Gold Parlay play, but I will re-evaluate when I start to put them together. Silver at worst.

4 STARS

Francimar Barroso $3.21 vs. Ryan Jimmo $1.41

50% (6 fights) of this card feature Brazilians as underdogs to visiting fighters- that could make for a tough weekend if they all hit because I am only on 2 of them. This is not one of those cases. Jimmo seems to be the better fighter and Barroso simply hasn’t shown me much. He hasn’t fought in ages which isn’t good either. Jimmo seems like the guy that wins lower level fights like this one and than gets a push up in competition and can’t hack. He is better then the lower level and not as good as the guys at the top end. Barring something crazy he wins either by knockout or grinding decision. He makes the cut in a Gold parlay leg.

4 STARS

K.J. Noons $2.15 vs. Alex Oliveira $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Oliveira II was so close to pulling off  a massive upset in his last fight. Unfortunately it was not to be and now we are here. Stylistically, this is a much better fight for him. Both him and KJ will relish the opportunity to stand and trade without some pesky grappling trying to grapple them. How dare they! Oliveira offers more. I have had success picking against Noons when his opponent is the more diverse striker and that is the case here. Until he knocked out Sam Stout I was 7-0 picking his fights, dating back to the summer of 2011. That is a decent track record. Oliveira has to avoid getting cracked with a big shot, but he is at home and the natural WW fighting a blown up LW that is in my opinion a front runner. Masvidal, Cerrone, and Cruickshank (NC) all got the better of Noons by integrating kicks, so will O2. Oliveira will be a good parlay leg as I think his value is strong.

4 STARS

Nik Lentz $3.46 vs. Charles Oliveira $1.39 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really like this play! Love it! I picked Oliveira or O3 (the 3rd Oliveira to fight on this card) to win their first fight. Illegal strike aside, he was well on his way. Both guys have gotten better, but ‘do Bronx’ has improved more. He is the better striker, by a significant amount and his grappling game is outrageously dangerous. Submitting Hioki was darn impressive. Lentz path to victory is through his wrestling, but that leads him directly into the belly of the beast. I look for O3 to outclass him on the feet with speed and more dynamic striking game and than routinely out-position Lentz whenever they do hit the floor. His pace will wear him down and either allow him to take a wide decision or finish the fight with a submission. I like Lentz, don’t get me wrong and I am not one to put a fighter down, but Oliveira is a whole world of wrong for him. Easily a Gold parlay play and my #1 confidence bet. 4 STARS

Thiago Alves $3.36 vs. Carlos Condit $1.39

I’m playing the Brazilian crowd to go home happy. I like Condit, I like that he is back in action, I just don’t think that this is a great return fight for him. With both guys their downfalls have hinged heavily on wrestlers. When their opponent can bring a strong wrestling based attack, they are in trouble. That isn’t the case here. My first concern with Alves is his cardio. Can he hold up over 5 rounds against Condit who is known for his durability and cardio. Considering Alves has gone 5 just once that could be an issue, but Condit has been on the shelf for a while so he might not be as well conditioned either. Look for Alves to be the more impactful striker and really do a number on his surgically repaired leg. Condit is nasty, so this fight will probably fall to the Silver section, possibly bronze.

1. Charles Oliveira $1.39 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Mirsad Bektic $1.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Ryan Jimmo $1.41

4. Norman Parke $1.41

5. Juliana Lima $1.53 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Alex Oliveira $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Wilson Reis $2.43

8. Wendell Oliveira $1.91

9. Damon Jackson $2.69

10. Tom Breese $1.61 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Thiago Alves $3.36

12. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $4.19

1. Alex Oliveira $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– Noons has always struggled with this type of fighter. He carries a much bigger name and that is partially the reason the line sits where it does.

2. Wilson Reis $2.43 – The better striker and good enough to stalemate the ground game of his opponent.

3. Damon Jackson $2.69 – Jason has struggled of late and Jackson’s performance in his debut was far better then the end result would suggest.

4. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $4.19 – A very good price here considering his opponent is debuting in enemy territory.

5. Thiago Alves $3.36 – His price and Condit’s injury layoff get him the #5 spot over the W. Oliveira. I wouldn’t be shocked if a home field decision helps him out here.

1. Luiz Dutra $2.58 – The more I look at this fight he might be worth a look if you have the bank roll. Not my favourite play, but it’s not without reason.

2. Francisco Trinaldo $3.21 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– I expect Parke to take this one, but the hometown judges could play a significant role here. If he can keep it close he could be gifted the win.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

 

Prop Bets

Luiz Dutra/ Tom Breese 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Juliana Lima/ Ericka Almeida 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Jussier Formiga/ Wilson Reis Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.38 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Neither man has won via knockout in their career and I don’t expect to see one catching the other in a submission- neither has ever been submitted. The Over doesn’t pay well, but it will over a workable bump to a low risk parlay.

Rony Jason/ Damon Jackson

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Norman Parke/ Francisco Trinaldo Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.41 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Neither man has gone to an overwhelming number of decisions throughout their entire career, but it is a different story since they joined the UFC. Parke has gone the distance in 5 of his 6 UFC bouts and Trinaldo has gone to decision in 4 straight. In their 15 combined fights, only 2 have ended inside the opening round. Play the Over.

Francimar Barroso/ Ryan Jimmo Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.15

This is a bit of risk, but there is method to my madness as Jimmo is known for boring decisions. Jimmo has scored knockouts in 2 of 3 wins in the UFC and nearly stopped Te Huna as well. Barroso has been knocked out in 3 of his 4 losses, he has also stopped opponents in 14 of his 16 wins. Play the Under.

Nik Lentz/ Charles Oliveira 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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