UFN 66: Edgar vs Faber- What’s Next…
Night Morning 66 was a nice return to normalcy, but unfortunately I was unable to catch more then a few bits and pieces of the card as I had a prior engagement that required my attention. Instead of breaking down the event’s action I will give you my predictions for what is next for some of the key fighters on the main card.
Edgar was dominant start to finish and handed Faber his first non-title loss in a very long time. Some have called for Edgar vs Mendes, which I could see but I think he has earned a second engagement with Jose Aldo. If Aldo retains his title against McGregor, than Aldo/Edgar II should be the next bout for ‘the Answer’.
He partially called out Michael Bisping and I think that fight makes sense. Neither guy is currently seen as a future title contender, but a win will certainly propel the victor back into the conversation.
Munoz appears set on retirement and that is probably for the best. Leaving on a high note is something that many fighters aren’t fortunate enough to enjoy.
A big come from behind win over a dangerous opponent keeps his streak going and warrants a nice step up in competition. Erick Silva and Rick Story are preparing to square off and the winner of that fight would serve as a nice next opponent for Magny. The winner of UFC 187 Kim/Burkman fight would also be worth a look, as Kim is currently ranked 8th and Burkman would climb significantly by defeating Kim.
There is no shame in losing to a talent like Frankie Edgar, unfortunately it still hurts his future title aspirations. Faber has fought the vast majority of fighters in the Bantamweight top 10, so picking up enough relevant wins to warranted a shot at his teammate for the title could be tough. Some time spent at Featherweight could create some interesting opportunities. Cub Swanson or Ricardo Lamas would be my picks to face Faber at 145 pounds.
That was a tough loss for Costa, he was really never in the fight and Mousasi showed once again that Philippou is vulnerable on the floor. The ideal fight for him would be against another recent ranked loser in CB Dollaway, but I would probably be more open to him taking recently ranked Robert Whittaker despite the unpopular winner versus loser scenario.
Three straight losses and the last one incredibly one-sided could easily send Barnatt packing. If he does stick around then a fight with Chris Camozzi with a roster spot on the line works for me.
Hyun Gyu Lim
He was close to taking this one and possibly grabbing a top 15 spot, but it wasn’t meant to be. If Erick Silva losses to Rick Story then Silva/Lim would be utter violence. If that isn’t in the cards, then how about John Howard on the upcoming card in his own country.
From what I saw and read after the fact, this was a pretty decent card. I still need to go back and watch some of the fights I missed, but that could be difficult with the fast and furious schedule we are headed towards this summer. I went 8-4 with a controversial decision to start the card, but all indications are that Nover’s win was a questionable one. The Bet pack is posted below, please check that out and lets keep it rolling for a very big card next weekend- UFC 187.
Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available
The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.
Selection 1: Luke Barnatt $1.65
Selection 2: Phillipe Nover $2.58
Selection 3: Hyun Gyu Lim/ Neil Magny Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.87
Price: $7.97 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 55.79 units
Selection 1: Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64
Selection 2: Neil Magny $1.83
Selection 3: Frankie Edgar to Win by Decision $1.69
Price: $8.17 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 57.19 units
Selection 1: Mark Eddiva $4.36
Price: $4.36 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 17.44 units
Selection 1: Ning Guangyou $1.95
Selection 2: Li Jingliang $2.70
Selection 3: Roldan Sangcha-an/ Jon Delos Reyes Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.65
Price: $13.96 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 83.76 units
Selection 1: Neil Magny $1.83
Selection 2: Luke Barnatt $1.65
Selection 3: Phillipe Nover $2.58
Selection 4: Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64
Selection 5: Li Jingliang $2.70
Price: $55.53 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 277.65 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Nolan Ticman 1.47 vs Yao Zhikui 3.01
On paper Ticman should win this fight and all the research I did backs that up. He comes from the better camp, stronger combat background, more experience, and he appears to be the better athlete. Where my concerns lie are with the lack of experience on both sides, elongated layoffs, fighting on foreign soil, and divisional drops for both men. These issues bring a lot of uncertainty into this contest and uncertainty isn’t a friend of mine or yours. I think Ticman wins, but for a guy with 1 unsuccessful UFC appearance I’m not too excited with his price tag. He might be a serviceable play on one of your larger parlays with a lot legs with fewer dollars invested or a No Play is a viable option as well.
Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64 vs Jon Delos Reyes $1.59
Here is my first upset pick of the night. Sangcha-an impressed me in his pre-UFC footage and although I correctly picked against him, I felt he held his own. He has been out for a bit, but for a young fighter in a developing camp that can lead to some sizeable strides. JDR is a firecracker and brings a break or be broke mentality into the cage. Unfortunately, he has been finished in each of his first 2 fights. I think he concentrates 100% on his ground attack that is where he can win this fight, but even than Sangcha-an is no push over. I think JDR gets too over zealous and either gets knocked out or Sangcha-an batters him on the feet and has increasingly more success stuffing takedowns as the fight progresses. This is an early fight on the card though, so our investment shouldn’t be big. I am thinking a single bet with a mid-level numbers of units invested.
Ning Guangyou $1.95 vs Royston Wee $1.99
In the time between predicting this fight and talking about betting it, the line has flipped and Wee has transitioned to the role of the underdog. So far he is 2-0 in the UFC, but his last win was incredibly contentious. Ning is a TUF winner but take that for what it is worth. I feel he has the skill set to neutralize what Wee does best which is grapple and then exploit his shortcomings on the feet. He has power knocking opponents out both as a pro and on his TUF run. Still this fight is a bit of coin flip, if I am implementing a conservative approach for this card I move him down to a lower end parlay leg, potentially the bronze section of my bets.
Li Jingliang $2.70 vs Dhiego Lima $1.59
I have never really been impressed with Lima. He was underwhelming on the show, got blasted in the finals, won his follow-up fight against an overmatched opponent, and then got blasted again by Means. Conversely, Jingliang made me take notice. He hasn’t done anything that spectacular, but he earned a decent upset in his debut and held his own against an opponent that many expected him to be finished by. I like the way Li keeps coming forward and throwing hands. He doesn’t seem intimidated and his willingness to engage overcomes some of his technical shortcomings. Conversely, I think Lima can be pushed back and that severely inhibits his effectiveness. If he can’t finish Li and routinely gives up ground that will be a hard sell with the judges when it comes to a decision. His durability is a big question mark as well. 2 knockouts over his last 3 fights makes for a rough run. I really like the value on Li here, but I am on the fence. I don’t think he makes the cut as a top level single bet, I am more inclined to move him into a parlay of 2-3 fighters in the Silver section.
Zhang Lipeng $2.18 vs Kajan Johnson $1.78
I really like Kajan here, I just hope he fights to his strengths. He is the better striker and Lipeng hasn’t shown the type of power that will add to Johnson’s knockout woes. That being said, a questionable chin can make anyone look like a knockout king. On the mat, Lipeng could catch him in sub, but he is more likely to lose position during the pursuit and end up on the wrong end of the ensuing scramble. Johnson is a solid finisher on the floor and will control the majority of the action if he is unable to seal the deal. There is some solid value on this line, so Johnson will most likely be a key play for one of my larger investments.
Tae Hyun Bang $2.38 vs Jon Tuck $1.69
This fight will come down to Bang’s power or Tuck’s takedowns. Bang has struggled tremendously with his defensive wrestling- both in his debut and sophomore performances. He rallied to KO Johnson, but he was still being taken down at will prior to the end. I have seen nothing that would suggest Tuck won’t be able to do the same. If he elects to take that approach, which he should considering Bang’s power. Bang can bang- I had to. He does rely a little too much on his boxing and at times his focus on counter striking can make him less effective. Tuck could get himself dragged into a brawl and if that happens, it will inhibit his gas tank and make him more vulnerable to the knockout. More often than not siding with the fighter that has more dimensions to his game and relies less on landing that one big fight changing punch is the way to go. Not always, but in most scenarios. I believe this to be one of those. Tuck’s 2 UFC losses came against Parke and Lee- Bang is not at that level. I like the price line here and feel Tuck can be a solid parlay contributor to your higher end investments.
Mark Eddiva $4.36 vs Levan Makashvili $1.29
This line is pretty significant, especially considering that Levan is making his official debut on 3 weeks notice as an injury replacement. He is also doing so on foreign soil. Eddiva is in fight #3 and is currently 1-1, he needs a win here or he could be on his way out the door. He demoed good counter wrestling in his debut, but Levan is a step above Eddiva’s first opponent. While Levan is a good wrestler and decent striker, his lack of activity at times is concerning. He tends to let his output wane and Eddiva will jump on that. Eddiva’s his is a strong striker, with a nice variety of strikes that will keep Levan guessing. This line is pretty massive and while Makashvili comes in with a lot of hype- I will take the dog. I do like Eddiva, but until I see Makashvili at this level there is till something missing from the equation so this pick slips to a low level parlay, maybe even down to the Wildcard play.
Yui Chul Nam $1.61 vs Phillipe Nover $2.58
The TUF finalist that was once compared to the likes of GSP and Anderson Silva has returned. Nover got beat in the finals of his season of TUF, lost his 2 following fights, and that was it. Nam has some serious power, but that can create some problems. In his debut he had his opponent badly hurt in the first, but couldn’t finish and spent the next round on his back- exhausted. He is also cutting down a division, which can come with some physical inhibitors. I think Nover can drag hi to the ground and either submit him or control his way to a decision. He will need to watch the early attack, but his grappling should serve as a nice counter point to the aggression. With the divisional change for both men, rebut for Nover, and relative inactivity I will drop this fight to the Silver section of the card. I will consider a single bet, but moving him into a parlay is workable.
Hyun Gyu Lim $2.09 vs Neil Magny $1.83
I love me some Hyun Gyu Lim! I have been backing him since he arrived in the UFC and so far I am 3-1. Unfortunately, I think that this fight is a stylistic nightmare. He is a big WW, but Magny is as well and actually as the reach advantage. That takes away one of Lim’s edge that he normally has and further magnifies the ‘above average size = questionable cardio’ equation. Lim hits like a hammer, a big one. But he is predictable and very hittable. Magny has really developed into a good striker- both offensively and defensively. He should be able to avoid the big strikes early and pull away late. His wrestling will also add a nice alternative form of attack to keep Lim guess. Lim’s always dangerous, but I think Magny weathers the storm. Both guys are fairly well know commodities so I feel comfortable playing Magny as part of my top parlay investment.
Luke Barnatt $1.65 vs. Mark Munoz $2.45
Thank you for the memories Mark Munoz. This appears to be the curtain call for the long-time Middleweight contender. Will he ride off into the sunset or end on a sour note. As a fan, I would like him to get the win, but I fear that is not in the cards and picked accordingly. An area I need to pay more attention to is the age gap between fighters. There are stats floating around that talk about how unsuccessful fighters are when they are significantly older and also the smaller man. That is the case here. Barnatt is flawed, but he is huge and has power. I simply do not see Munoz being able to take him down enough to get the win. Even more telling, he has sold his gym and is moving to a family first mentality while focusing on become a wrestling coach. I simply see him being too far past his prime to win at this level. While he does have an avenue to victory, I simply do not believe he can get there. Barnatt hasn’t been that impressive of late, which is probably going to keep me from playing this as a central pick on my top play, but I feel he will be a key portion of my secondary investments.
Gegard Mousasi $1.18 vs Costa Philippou $6.01
I took a long look at Costa, but there wasn’t enough there to call the upset. Similarly, there isn’t enough of a line to consider betting Mousasi to win straight up. I will take a look at the Total and if I see something post it in the appropriate section. But this is a No Play for me.
Frankie Edgar $1.25 vs Urijah Faber $4.73
Two guys that can’t lose when a title is not on the line- something will give here. Unfortunately, the odds are too lopsided to consider a play on Edgar and I don’t think Faber can beat him over a 5 round fight so the upset play is out as well. I will look at the total or a method win for Frankie, but a side bet is untouchable.
1. Frankie Edgar $1.25
2. Gegard Mousasi $1.18
3. Neil Magny $1.83
4. Kajan Johnson $1.78
5. Jon Tuck $1.69
6. Luke Barnatt $1.65
7. Phillipe Nover $2.58
8. Nolan Ticman 1.47
9. Ning Guangyou $1.95
10. Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64
11. Li Jingliang $2.70
12. Mark Eddiva $4.36
1. Neil Magny $1.83 – Momentum can play a big role and Mangy has it. Lim’s wins have come over lower level competition and in his one fight against a more skilled opponent he was outclassed. Magny survives the early threat and pulls away by a wide margin.
2. Phillipe Nover $2.58 – He showed a lot of promise in his early TUF run, but when it came to fight time he has been very unsuccessful. I like his grappling to serve as a nice foil here to his opponent’s brawling based striking attack. Similar to the fight above, tense early, survive, win.
3. Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64 – The total is very playable here, but in the end I simply don’t like how hard JDR goes for it and how it has cost him in his last 2 fights. Roldan impressed me pre-UFC and he gets it going here.
4. Jon Tuck $1.69 – There are a number of other predictions sources that are playing against Tuck. I simply feel he is more diverse and his opponent has too many vulnerabilities.
5. Kajan Johnson $1.78 – He has the skills to win this fight, but he needs to fight to his strengths. His chin is a little bit concerning, but his opponent doesn’t appear to have the power to trouble him (I keep saying that, uh oh). Kajan can win this fight on the feet or the mat, I like that.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Yao Zhikui 3.01 – A lot of factors here make this seem like a pretty strong EPU candidate.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Content.
Nolan Ticman/ Yao Zhikui
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Roldan Sangcha-an/ Jon Delos Reyes
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Zhang Lipeng/ Kajan Johnson Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.55
There is a massive number of finishes between these 2 guys. Lipeng has seen 10 of his 18 fights end within the distance and Johnson 22 of 31. Both guys can finish on the mat and can be finished, and toss in Johnson’s ‘busted’ jaw/chin and there is a real possibility that this fight isn’t going the distance.
Tae Hyun Bang/ Jon Tuck
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Hyun Gyu Lim/ Neil Magny Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.87
Lim is a finisher and Magny has shown signs of becoming one. This price is pretty playable, despite the constant threat of the knockout that will loom from start to finish. Lim could score an early knockout or Magny pick up a late stoppage, but will stick with the Over.
Gegard Mousasi/ Costa Philippou Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.55
Mousasi scored a beautiful submission win over Munoz and starched Dan Henderson in quick fashion. Can he finish Costa? Sure. Philippou was put down by Rockhold and finished Larkin in his last fight with neither escaping the first round. So let’s roll with the Under, a finish could still take place but I see a bit of a tentative start carrying this fight into the second half.
Frankie Edgar to Win by Decision $1.69
I routinely get burned on this type of play. Edgar finished Swanson in the final moments after a dominant performance and put away a shot out BJ, but he had gone the distance in 4 straight prior to those fights and 11 of 13. Faber has been knocked out 3 times, but over the course of 39 fights against elite level competition for a large number of those contests. I think their skill sets will cancel each other out, but Faber will simply get second best in the majority of the exchanges- leading to the involvement of the judges.