UFN 66: Edgar vs Faber- What’s Next…

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UFC Fight Night Morning 66 was a nice return to normalcy, but unfortunately I was unable to catch more then a few bits and pieces of the card as I had a prior engagement that required my attention. Instead of breaking down the event’s action I will give you my predictions for what is next for some of the key fighters on the main card.

Winners

Frankie Edgar

Edgar was dominant start to finish and handed Faber his first non-title loss in a very long time. Some have called for Edgar vs Mendes, which I could see but I think he has earned a second engagement with Jose Aldo. If Aldo retains his title against McGregor, than Aldo/Edgar II should be the next bout for ‘the Answer’.

Gegard Mousasi

He partially called out Michael Bisping and I think that fight makes sense. Neither guy is currently seen as a future title contender, but a win will certainly propel the victor back into the conversation.

Mark Munoz

Munoz appears set on retirement and that is probably for the best. Leaving on a high note is something that many fighters aren’t fortunate enough to enjoy.

Neil Magny

A big come from behind win over a dangerous opponent keeps his streak going and warrants a nice step up in competition. Erick Silva and Rick Story are preparing to square off and the winner of that fight would serve as a nice next opponent for Magny. The winner of UFC 187 Kim/Burkman fight would also be worth a look, as Kim is currently ranked 8th and Burkman would climb significantly by defeating Kim.

Losers

Urijah Faber

There is no shame in losing to a talent like Frankie Edgar, unfortunately it still hurts his future title aspirations. Faber has fought the vast majority of fighters in the Bantamweight top 10, so picking up enough relevant wins to warranted a shot at his teammate for the title could be tough. Some time spent at Featherweight could create some interesting opportunities. Cub Swanson or Ricardo Lamas would be my picks to face Faber at 145 pounds.

Costa Philippou

That was a tough loss for Costa, he was really never in the fight and Mousasi showed once again that Philippou is vulnerable on the floor. The ideal fight for him would be against another recent ranked loser in CB Dollaway, but I would probably be more open to him taking recently ranked Robert Whittaker despite the unpopular winner versus loser scenario.

Luke Barnatt

Three straight losses and the last one incredibly one-sided could easily send Barnatt packing. If he does stick around then a fight with Chris Camozzi with a roster spot on the line works for me.

Hyun Gyu Lim

He was close to taking this one and possibly grabbing a top 15 spot, but it wasn’t meant to be. If Erick Silva losses to Rick Story then Silva/Lim would be utter violence. If that isn’t in the cards, then how about John Howard on the upcoming card in his own country.

Final Thoughts…

From what I saw and read after the fact, this was a pretty decent card. I still need to go back and watch some of the fights I missed, but that could be difficult with the fast and furious schedule we are headed towards this summer. I went 8-4 with a controversial decision to start the card, but all indications are that Nover’s win was a questionable one. The Bet pack is posted below, please check that out and lets keep it rolling for a very big card next weekend- UFC 187.

Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available

The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Neil Magny $1.83 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Kajan Johnson $1.78 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Jon Tuck $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $5.51 x Bet: 12 units
Payout: 66.12
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Luke Barnatt $1.65
Selection 2: Phillipe Nover $2.58 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Hyun Gyu Lim/ Neil Magny Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.87
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Price: $7.97 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 55.79 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64
Selection 2: Neil Magny $1.83 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Frankie Edgar to Win by Decision $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $8.17 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 57.19 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Mark Eddiva $4.36
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Price: $4.36 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 17.44 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Ning Guangyou $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Li Jingliang $2.70 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Roldan Sangcha-an/ Jon Delos Reyes Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.65
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Price: $13.96 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 83.76 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Neil Magny $1.83 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Luke Barnatt $1.65
Selection 3: Phillipe Nover $2.58 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64
Selection 5: Li Jingliang $2.70 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $55.53 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 277.65 units
 

Nolan Ticman 1.47 vs Yao Zhikui 3.01

On paper Ticman should win this fight and all the research I did backs that up. He comes from the better camp, stronger combat background, more experience, and he appears to be the better athlete. Where my concerns lie are with the lack of experience on both sides, elongated layoffs, fighting on foreign soil, and divisional drops for both men. These issues bring a lot of uncertainty into this contest and uncertainty isn’t a friend of mine or yours. I think Ticman wins, but for a guy with 1 unsuccessful UFC appearance I’m not too excited with his price tag. He might be a serviceable play on one of your larger parlays with a lot legs with fewer dollars invested or a No Play is a viable option as well.

4 STARS

Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64 vs Jon Delos Reyes $1.59

Here is my first upset pick of the night. Sangcha-an impressed me in his pre-UFC footage and although I correctly picked against him, I felt he held his own. He has been out for a bit, but for a young fighter in a developing camp that can lead to some sizeable strides. JDR is a firecracker and brings a break or be broke mentality into the cage. Unfortunately, he has been finished in each of his first 2 fights. I think he concentrates 100% on his ground attack that is where he can win this fight, but even than Sangcha-an is no push over. I think JDR gets too over zealous and either gets knocked out or Sangcha-an batters him on the feet and has increasingly more success stuffing takedowns as the fight progresses. This is an early fight on the card though, so our investment shouldn’t be big. I am thinking a single bet with a mid-level numbers of units invested.

4 STARS

Ning Guangyou $1.95 vs Royston Wee $1.99 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

In the time between predicting this fight and talking about betting it, the line has flipped and Wee has transitioned to the role of the underdog. So far he is 2-0 in the UFC, but his last win was incredibly contentious. Ning is a TUF winner but take that for what it is worth. I feel he has the skill set to neutralize what Wee does best which is grapple and then exploit his shortcomings on the feet. He has power knocking opponents out both as a pro and on his TUF run. Still this fight is a bit of coin flip, if I am implementing a conservative approach for this card I move him down to a lower end parlay leg, potentially the bronze section of my bets.

4 STARS

Li Jingliang $2.70 vs Dhiego Lima $1.59 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I have never really been impressed with Lima. He was underwhelming on the show, got blasted in the finals, won his follow-up fight against an overmatched opponent, and then got blasted again by Means. Conversely, Jingliang made me take notice. He hasn’t done anything that spectacular, but he earned a decent upset in his debut and held his own against an opponent that many expected him to be finished by. I like the way Li keeps coming forward and throwing hands. He doesn’t seem intimidated and his willingness to engage overcomes some of his technical shortcomings. Conversely, I think Lima can be pushed back and that severely inhibits his effectiveness. If he can’t finish Li and routinely gives up ground that will be a hard sell with the judges when it comes to a decision. His durability is a big question mark as well. 2 knockouts over his last 3 fights makes for a rough run. I really like the value on Li here, but I am on the fence. I don’t think he makes the cut as a top level single bet, I am more inclined to move him into a parlay of 2-3 fighters in the Silver section.4 STARS

Zhang Lipeng $2.18 vs Kajan Johnson $1.78 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really like Kajan here, I just hope he fights to his strengths. He is the better striker and Lipeng hasn’t shown the type of power that will add to Johnson’s knockout woes. That being said, a questionable chin can make anyone look like a knockout king. On the mat, Lipeng could catch him in sub, but he is more likely to lose position during the pursuit and end up on the wrong end of the ensuing scramble. Johnson is a solid finisher on the floor and will control the majority of the action if he is unable to seal the deal. There is some solid value on this line, so Johnson will most likely be a key play for one of my larger investments.

4 STARS

Tae Hyun Bang $2.38 vs Jon Tuck $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight will come down to Bang’s power or Tuck’s takedowns. Bang has struggled tremendously with his defensive wrestling- both in his debut and sophomore performances. He rallied to KO Johnson, but he was still being taken down at will prior to the end. I have seen nothing that would suggest Tuck won’t be able to do the same. If he elects to take that approach, which he should considering Bang’s power. Bang can bang- I had to. He does rely a little too much on his boxing and at times his focus on counter striking can make him less effective. Tuck could get himself dragged into a brawl and if that happens, it will inhibit his gas tank and make him more vulnerable to the knockout. More often than not siding with the fighter that has more dimensions to his game and relies less on landing that one big fight changing punch is the way to go. Not always, but in most scenarios. I believe this to be one of those. Tuck’s 2 UFC losses came against Parke and Lee- Bang is not at that level. I like the price line here and feel Tuck can be a solid parlay contributor to your higher end investments.

4 STARS

Mark Eddiva $4.36 vs Levan Makashvili $1.29

This line is pretty significant, especially considering that Levan is making his official debut on 3 weeks notice as an injury replacement. He is also doing so on foreign soil. Eddiva is in fight #3 and is currently 1-1, he needs a win here or he could be on his way out the door. He demoed good counter wrestling in his debut, but Levan is a step above Eddiva’s first opponent. While Levan is a good wrestler and decent striker, his lack of activity at times is concerning. He tends to let his output wane and Eddiva will jump on that. Eddiva’s his is a strong striker, with a nice variety of strikes that will keep Levan guessing. This line is pretty massive and while Makashvili comes in with a lot of hype- I will take the dog. I do like Eddiva, but until I see Makashvili at this level there is till something missing from the equation so this pick slips to a low level parlay, maybe even down to the Wildcard play. 4 STARS

Yui Chul Nam $1.61 vs Phillipe Nover $2.58 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

The TUF finalist that was once compared to the likes of GSP and Anderson Silva has returned. Nover got beat in the finals of his season of TUF, lost his 2 following fights, and that was it. Nam has some serious power, but that can create some problems. In his debut he had his opponent badly hurt in the first, but couldn’t finish and spent the next round on his back- exhausted. He is also cutting down a division, which can come with some physical inhibitors. I think Nover can drag hi to the ground and either submit him or control his way to a decision. He will need to watch the early attack, but his grappling should serve as a nice counter point to the aggression. With the divisional change for both men, rebut for Nover, and relative inactivity I will drop this fight to the Silver section of the card. I will consider a single bet, but moving him into a parlay is workable.

4 STARS

Hyun Gyu Lim $2.09 vs Neil Magny $1.83 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I love me some Hyun Gyu Lim! I have been backing him since he arrived in the UFC and so far I am 3-1. Unfortunately, I think that this fight is a stylistic nightmare. He is a big WW, but Magny is as well and actually as the reach advantage. That takes away one of Lim’s edge that he normally has and further magnifies the ‘above average size = questionable cardio’ equation. Lim hits like a hammer, a big one. But he is predictable and very hittable. Magny has really developed into a good striker- both offensively and defensively. He should be able to avoid the big strikes early and pull away late. His wrestling will also add a nice alternative form of attack to keep Lim guess. Lim’s always dangerous, but I think Magny weathers the storm. Both guys are fairly well know commodities so I feel comfortable playing Magny as part of my top parlay investment.

4 STARS

Luke Barnatt $1.65 vs. Mark Munoz $2.45

Thank you for the memories Mark Munoz. This appears to be the curtain call for the long-time Middleweight contender. Will he ride off into the sunset or end on a sour note. As a fan, I would like him to get the win, but I fear that is not in the cards and picked accordingly. An area I need to pay more attention to is the age gap between fighters. There are stats floating around that talk about how unsuccessful fighters are when they are significantly older and also the smaller man. That is the case here. Barnatt is flawed, but he is huge and has power. I simply do not see Munoz being able to take him down enough to get the win. Even more telling, he has sold his gym and is moving to a family first mentality while focusing on become a wrestling coach. I simply see him being too far past his prime to win at this level. While he does have an avenue to victory, I simply do not believe he can get there. Barnatt hasn’t been that impressive of late, which is probably going to keep me from playing this as a central pick on my top play, but I feel he will be a key portion of my secondary investments.4 STARS

Gegard Mousasi $1.18 vs Costa Philippou $6.01 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I took a long look at Costa, but there wasn’t enough there to call the upset. Similarly, there isn’t enough of a line to consider betting Mousasi to win straight up. I will take a look at the Total and if I see something post it in the appropriate section. But this is a No Play for me.

4 STARS

Frankie Edgar $1.25 vs Urijah Faber $4.73 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Two guys that can’t lose when a title is not on the line- something will give here. Unfortunately, the odds are too lopsided to consider a play on Edgar and I don’t think Faber can beat him over a 5 round fight so the upset play is out as well. I will look at the total or a method win for Frankie, but a side bet is untouchable.

1. Frankie Edgar $1.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Gegard Mousasi $1.18 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Neil Magny $1.83 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Kajan Johnson $1.78 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Jon Tuck $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Luke Barnatt $1.65

7. Phillipe Nover $2.58 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Nolan Ticman 1.47

9. Ning Guangyou $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64

11. Li Jingliang $2.70 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Mark Eddiva $4.36

1. Neil Magny $1.83 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– Momentum can play a big role and Mangy has it. Lim’s wins have come over lower level competition and in his one fight against a more skilled opponent he was outclassed. Magny survives the early threat and pulls away by a wide margin.

2. Phillipe Nover $2.58 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– He showed a lot of promise in his early TUF run, but when it came to fight time he has been very unsuccessful. I like his grappling to serve as a nice foil here to his opponent’s brawling based striking attack. Similar to the fight above, tense early, survive, win.

3. Roldan Sangcha-an $2.64 – The total is very playable here, but in the end I simply don’t like how hard JDR goes for it and how it has cost him in his last 2 fights. Roldan impressed me pre-UFC and he gets it going here.

4. Jon Tuck $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– There are a number of other predictions sources that are playing against Tuck. I simply feel he is more diverse and his opponent has too many vulnerabilities.

5. Kajan Johnson $1.78 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– He has the skills to win this fight, but he needs to fight to his strengths. His chin is a little bit concerning, but his opponent doesn’t appear to have the power to trouble him (I keep saying that, uh oh). Kajan can win this fight on the feet or the mat, I like that.

1. Yao Zhikui 3.01 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– A lot of factors here make this seem like a pretty strong EPU candidate.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

 

Prop Bets

Nolan Ticman/ Yao Zhikui 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Roldan Sangcha-an/ Jon Delos Reyes

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Zhang Lipeng/ Kajan Johnson Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.55

There is a massive number of finishes between these 2 guys. Lipeng has seen 10 of his 18 fights end within the distance and Johnson 22 of 31. Both guys can finish on the mat and can be finished, and toss in Johnson’s ‘busted’ jaw/chin and there is a real possibility that this fight isn’t going the distance.

Tae Hyun Bang/ Jon Tuck

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Hyun Gyu Lim/ Neil Magny Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.87

Lim is a finisher and Magny has shown signs of becoming one. This price is pretty playable, despite the constant threat of the knockout that will loom from start to finish. Lim could score an early knockout or Magny pick up a late stoppage, but will stick with the Over.

Gegard Mousasi/ Costa Philippou Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Mousasi scored a beautiful submission win over Munoz and starched Dan Henderson in quick fashion. Can he finish Costa? Sure. Philippou was put down by Rockhold and finished Larkin in his last fight with neither escaping the first round. So let’s roll with the Under, a finish could still take place but I see a bit of a tentative start carrying this fight into the second half.

Frankie Edgar to Win by Decision $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I routinely get burned on this type of play. Edgar finished Swanson in the final moments after a dominant performance and put away a shot out BJ, but he had gone the distance in 4 straight prior to those fights and 11 of 13. Faber has been knocked out 3 times, but over the course of 39 fights against elite level competition for a large number of those contests. I think their skill sets will cancel each other out, but Faber will simply get second best in the majority of the exchanges- leading to the involvement of the judges.

 

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