UFN 65: Miocic vs Hunt- “Well… That Was Fun”
UFC Fight Night 65 was an entertaining night of fights and a night of fights dominated by upsets with 9 of the 12 underdogs getting their hands raised. Yours truly finished the card with a stellar 2-10 record. I felt pretty good about my picks going into the event and few of the bouts appeared to be going in the direction that I had forecasted, but then took a turn for the worst. I was hopeful that my main card predictions would tell turn the tide, but that was big emphatic..
Unfortunately with quick turn around between cards I won’t have time to break down the aftermath properly as I need to get to work on getting my UFN 66 picks wrong. Instead I briefly discussed the card and my difficulties in my intro and conclusion for the UFN 66 prediction video. I will leave you with a couple of lines from ‘My Cousin Vinny’ to describe my performance…
Selection 1: Stipe Miocic $1.48
Selection 2: Alp Ozkilic $1.56
Selection 3: Brad Tavares $1.68
Price: $3.88 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 31.04 units
Selection 1: Anthony Perosh $1.69
Selection 2: Jake Matthews $1.59
Selection 3: Hatsu Hioki $1.36
Price: $3.66 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 29.28 unirs
Selection 1: Lisa Ellis $2.49
Price: 2.49 x Bet: 5 units
Selection 1: Jonavin Webb $1.98
Selection 2: Dylan Andrews $1.90
Selection 3: Vik Grujic $1.93
Price: $7.27 x Bet: 6 units
Selection 1: Alvey/ Kelly Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.35
Selection 2: Perosh/ O’Connell Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.95
Selection 3: Brad Tavares $1.68
Selection 4: Jonavin Webb $1.98
Price: $15.25 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 91.5 units
Selection 1: Miocic/ Hunt Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.57
Selection 2: Jake Matthews $1.59
Selection 3: Vik Grujic $1.93
Selection 4: Whittaker/ Tavares Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.67
Selection 5: Lisa Ellis $2.49
Selection 6: Dylan Andrews $1.90
Price: $38.07 x Bet: 5 units
ALP OZKILIC $1.56 vs BEN NGUYEN $2.75
I really like this play. Nguyen is decent, but this is a big step when you look at how skilled Alp is as a wrestler. Alp is tightening his striking up and held his own against a pretty solid striker in Lineker. He should be able to do the same here, but augment it with a more consistent wrestling attack. I think Alp works his way into a Gold parlay leg, but there appears to be a number of viable options for the top level parlays.
Vik Grujic $1.93 vs Brendan O’Reilly $2.15
Neither man has been too impressive of late. Grujic has had a bit more success and has been more active which are both positives. Desperation will play a role here as their jobs are probably on the line and at Vik’s age he knows that this is probably it. Vik should be able to replicate the ground struggles that O’Reilly had in his debut, but also have some success with his clinch striking. Vik’s age is concerning and most likely this fight gets knocked down to a Silver bet as a result.
Alex Chambers $2.91 vs Kailin Curran $1.51
This fights pits two very inexperienced girls together. But, what I do like is the experience that Curran gained fighting PVZ. I picked her to win that fight and she arguably won the opening round, but couldn’t match her opponent’s pace and eventually faded away. Chambers can be tricky and if she gets in a position to use her grappling game, especially back mount, she could wrap this fight. I expect Curran takedowns and top control should be enough to keep Chambers our of her wheelhouse and with Alex’s lack of fight time after round 1- a long fight is not in her favour. Curran slips to the Silver section though, as I would like to see her get a UFC win before I start tossing down some big coin on her.
Brad Scott $2.05 vs Dylan Andrews $1.90
This fight is drawing close to even and it is even depending on what site you are playing on. Scott hasn’t fought in a while and even when he has fought he hasn’t looked good. Andrews’s last 2 fights have been unfortunate, he lost 1 due to injury and the other to a bit of a bizarre knockout. I still feel he has the more well rounded offensive skill set and while his rate of being finished combined with Scott’s rate of finishing opponents is concerning, I consider Andrews getting stopped here fairly unlikely. I like Andrews, I feel Scott is a step down from the last 2 fighters he has faced, so at this price I can see him creeping into the Gold section.
Bec Rawlings $1.62 vs Lisa Ellis $2.49
There is a lot of talk about Ellis not having the mental toughness to survive once things get heated. She went through a war with Jessica Penne in Invicta and lost to her again fairly quickly on TUF. I felt she did well against Herrig until the end and I think she has the skill set to replicate some of the troubles that Bec has had with ground fighters. She also has a significant experience advantage. If this fight gets stuck on the feet that favours Rawlings, but she hasn’t shown me enough to suggest that she can do that. I like the money on Ellis and a single bet is probably the way to go.
Sam Alvey $1.27 vs Dan Kelly $4.48
The line is simply too low to play Alvey, especially considering his inactivity tends to keep lesser fighters in the fight if the knockout doesn’t materialize. That being said, I think it does here. Alvey hits way to hard and Kelly is simply way to hittable. A side bet isn’t in the cards, but we are going to hammer the total.
Kyle Noke $1.95 vs Jonavin Webb $1.98
When a fighter is debuting on short notice, with minimal overall experience, facing a fighter at home and the line is sitting almost even then attention is needed. All of the ‘x-factors’ favour Noke, but he is the slightest of favourites and a dog on some sites. It comes down to what Webb presents as a fighter and what type of issues have trouble Noke of late. The answer to both of those is grappling/wrestling. How Webb will respond on the big stage is a little worrisome and he seems a tad undersized for 170, put skill I see him taking Noke down with regularity. But, because of the ‘x-factors’ that I talked about it precludes me from playing him above a Silver play, most likely hitting him up as a parlay leg.
Hatsu Hioki $1.36 vs Daniel Hooker $3.57
This fight stacks up as the type that Hioki wins. When he is able to establish grappling dominance he is able to win, when his opponent (Guida, Elkins, Lamas) can either execute their own ground attack or counter his- he losses. Additionally, when he doesn’t have to make the big trip to the states he has had far better performances. Hooker put up a decent fight against Blanco, but all indications are that a grappling heavy attack will be his undoing. I think Hioki makes the cut in the gold section and I have a interesting take on the total here as well.
Jake Matthews $1.59 vs James Vick $2.58
I was initially on Vick here and I still think he is a pretty live dog. My ultimate decision to play the Aussie came from that fact that I had picked against Vick in each of his last 2 fights and for reasons that I feel Matthews can exploit better then his last 2 opponents. Vick is tall and fights tall, but once his opponent gets inside he is vulnerable to getting taken down and he is quite hittable. He let his last opponent outwork him and Jake should be able to follow suit. Matthews is still pretty young and Vick represents a step up in competition from his first 2 foes, but I think he gets it done here with a higher work rate on the feet and some well timed takedowns. Matthews will make the cut as a Gold parlay leg, as a Vick upset could happen but I don’t see it being that likely.
Anthony Perosh $1.69 vs Sean O’Connell $2.50
It is hard to believe that the winner of this fight could crack the top 15. On the upside, with JBJ on the shelf long (very long) term, the division becomes a little more interesting. I for one would have loved to see a tournament put in place to turn lemons into lemonade. How does this sound; Johnson vs Manuwa, Gus vs OSP, Cormier vs Teixeira, and Evans vs Bader- basically the top 8. I would tune in. Oh yeah, this fight- Perosh drags it to the ground and score the eventual submission win. I like the side bet here and I also am quite intrigued by the total.
Robert Whittaker $2.50 vs Brad Tavares $1.68
This should be a pretty good scrap. I am not sold on Whittaker being an everyday MW, but the initial win was impressive. Tavares offers more the Hester does and the grappling should come to the forefront of his attack. I expect to see Brad do some work on the outside, but then have his greatest success when he closes the distance and does work in the clinch and/or takes Robert to the floor. I love the price here, very strong and it most likely makes the cut as a Gold parlay leg.
Stipe Miocic $1.48 vs Mark Hunt $3.06
Let’s say this- Hunt’s chin isn’t gone, but if you can put the damage on him and land something flush you can knock him out. Werdum did, so did JDS, and even Bigfoot dropped him. Stipe is a mountain of a man and hits like a truck. He gave as good as he took against JDS and sometimes even better. I felt he was winning heading into the final stages of the fight, but his cardio prevented him from cementing the W. He is multi-faceted and that is huge here. He should be able to threaten with his wrestling and he showed against JDS that he doesn’t need to land a takedown to be effective. Shoot, force his foe to defend, and then start striking in the aftermath. He needs to be careful, especially as the fight progress because if he slows down Hunt (who will also) slow down, could tag him. Either way, these are 2 of the most known commodities on the card and while Hunt has been a live dog, I expect him to come up short. Stipe is more comparable to JDS and Werdum then the guys that Hunt has beat. I will most likely play this as a Gold leg, it might slip to Silver because at heavyweight one punch and everything you thought goes out the window. The total is also worth examining.
1. Sam Alvey $1.27
2. Hatsu Hioki $1.36
3. Stipe Miocic $1.48
4. Anthony Perosh $1.69
5. Alp Ozkilic $1.56
6. Brad Tavares $1.68
7. Jake Matthews $1.59
8. Jonavin Webb $1.98
9. Dylan Andrews $1.90
10. Vik Grujic $1.93
11. Kailin Curran $1.51
12. Lisa Ellis $2.49
1. Jonavin Webb $1.98 // He is debuting, but his skill set should replicate the troubles that have got the better of Noke over his last few fights.
2. Anthony Perosh $1.69 // He is getting up there in age, but he keeps getting the job done. His grappling has got the better of stronger fighters and I think it holds here. I hope the price increases as we get closer to fight time.
3. Brad Tavares $1.68 // Similar to above, this is not a flashy price line. I think this fight will be competitive and picking against the home guy can be tough. Tavares simply offers more offensive and is a little tighter defensively.
4. Lisa Ellis $2.49 // The first and only true underdog on my bet card. I simply feel Rawlings is being overvalued here. Ellis’s grappling is solid and Bec’s track record in that field is subject. Ellis hasn’t been executing consistently of late (neither has Bec) so she slips a little on the list.
5. Vik Grujic $1.93 // This fight reminds me of his bout against Indich. Two regional guys fighting for their jobs at the UFC level. Vik has been more active and does have a win under his belt. His opponent has been on the shelf and is moving up a division after a pretty lackluster debut.
Exclusive Bet Pack Information.
ALP OZKILIC/ BEN NGUYEN
See Betting Scenarios Section.
Vik Grujic/ Brendan O’Reilly
See Betting Scenarios Seciton.
Sam Alvey/ Dan Kelly Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.35
Alvey hits like a truck, 16 wins by knockout, and Kelly is incredibly hittable. That goes to together like peanut butter and jam. 13 of his fights have gone under 1.5, including his last 2 fights. Kelly also has 5 fights under the 1.5 mark so if he gets in a position to finish he can. Play the Under.
Hatsu Hioki/ Daniel Hooker
See the Betting Scenarios Section.
Jake Matthews/ James Vick Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.60
Matthews has had success putting opponents away so far, but this is a step up in competition and I think Vick will be able to hang around until the final bell. Matthews takes the decision, but the Over is certainly worth consideration.
Anthony Perosh/ Sean O’Connell Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.95
This play bring the finishing ability into play of both men. Perosh has seen 17 of his 23 fights end inside the first round. For O’Connell it is 12 of 22 hitting the Under 1.5. While I expect that Perosh does the finishing, I feel better having both men’s abilities and liabilities working in my favour. Play the Under.
Robert Whittaker/ Brad Tavares Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.67
Both men have elongated fights. Whittaker has gone into the 3rd round or beyond in 5 of his last 7 fights. 9 of Tavares’s last 11 have gone the distance. Both guys have been finished recently, but I foresee this bout being a back and forth fight, with Tavares eating up time with a clinch heavy attack.
Stipe Miocic/ Mark Hunt Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.57
This fight could very well go under, its a heavyweight bout involving guys with heavyweight power. What I see happening though is Stipe looking to use a game plan to tire Hunt out and limit his chances of connecting with something big. Work from distance, takedown attempts, and don’t get too close. Stipe has gone the distance in 3 of his last 4 and hit the over in 9 of his last 11. It is not a flashy play at this price, but I think its a strong one.