UFN 60- Review and Bet Pack

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UFC Fight Night 60 didn’t have the buildup of other early 2015 events and was largely flying under the radar, but it certainly delivered in spades. An intriguing main event pairing provided a fantastic chess match. Two fighters on significant winning streaks extended them with impressive performances, 5 of the 10 fights ended inside the distance, and as a predictor n 8-2 record was a nice way to shake off some of the early difficulties in 2015. Let’s take a look.

James Moontasri def. Cody Pfister by Submission (RNC) | Rnd. 2

Moontasri may have missed weight, but he was on point with his striking. He landed several big shots, including some hard knee strikes that hurt Pfister as he came forward looking to wrestle. Moontasri appeared to tire a little after unloading on Pfister, but eventually took his back and sunk in a fight ending RNC early in the second frame. Predictions: 1-0 Props: 1-0

Zach Makovsky def. Tim Elliott by Decision (29-28 x3)

In a very entertaining scrap, the former Bellator champion edge out a very game, but positionally out-manoeuvred Tim Elliott. Elliott tried to stay busy off his back with strikes, but it wasn’t enough to earn him more than a round. A big slam at the end and follow-up sub attempt gave Elliott some fleeting hope at the end of the bout, but it was simply too little too late. Predictions: 2-0 Props: 2-0

Chas Skelly def. Jim Alers by TKO | Rnd. 2

In a bout devoid of defense, Chas Skelly shuck off the mantle of being just a grappler and scored an impressive TKO stoppage of Alers. Both men exchanged submission attempts in round 1; including an ankle lock attempt that Skelly admitted injured his leg. While not pretty, ‘Scrapper’ was landing some solid shots in round 1 and follow it up with a second round barrage that lead to the finish. A illegal knee landed late (Skelly also landed one in his debut), but the ref appeared on his way in to call the fight off before it landed. Predictions: 3-0 Props: 2-0

Efrain Escudero def. Rodrigo de Lima by Decision (30-27 x3)

The Brazilian appeared interested in testing his striking game and that was clearly a mistake. Escudero landed several solid shots and had ‘Monstro’ on the defensive and looking to take the fight to the mat. Escudero succeeded keeping his back off the mat, for the most part, for the rest of the fight and took a wide-decision on all cards. Predictions: 3-1 Props: 2-1

Ray Borg def. Chris Kelades by Submission (Kimura)

In a big statement win for Ray Borg, earning a late submission in the final round. Borg controlled the fight start to finish, putting Kelades on the mat at will and the Canadian had no answer for his ground game. Borg’s submission finish narrowly missed hitting the ‘Under’ of 2.5 rounds by just 26 seconds. Borg’s win will move him up the rankings and gets him off to a great start in 2015. Predictions: 4-1 Props: 2-2

Kevin Lee def. Michel Prazeres by Decision (30-27 x2, 29-2)

Winning his 3rd straight fight, Kevin Lee simply outlasted his Brazilian counterpart. Prazeres threw heat and had some early success with his ground game, but he slowed tremendously and was picked apart on the feet and taken down with relative ease. At 22 years of age Lee, now 3-1 in the UFC, has a bright future ahead of him. Predictions: 5-1 Props: 2-2 

Daniel Kelly def. Patrick Walsh by Decision (29-28 x2, 30-27)

Despite their respective grappling backgrounds, these two combatants elected to contest this bout almost entirely on the feet. Both relied primarily on their boxing and while Walsh appeared to wobble in the first round- there was no clear urgency on either man’s part to finish the fight. In the eyes of the judges, Kelly did enough to take the decision and improves to 9-0. Predictions: 5-2 Props: 3-2

Neil Magny def. Kiichi Kunimoto by Submission (RNC) | Rnd. 3

Magny was having a lot of success on the feet, cutting off the cage, and landing at will- yet he still seemed committed to taking the fight to the mat. Eventually, after breaking down his adversary on the feet- he sunk in the choke to end the bout. He now owns a very impressive 6 fight winning streak. Predictions: 6-2 Props: 4-2

Max Holloway def. Cole Miller by Decision (29-28 x2, 30-27)

Other than a few tense moments early, Holloway kept the fight standing and was able to punish Miller as a result. Cole held his own, and absorbed some big shots along the way, but couldn’t find his mark with consistency. This win continues a impressive streak and a fight with Cub Swanson appears to be on the horizon for the fasting rising Hawaiian. Predictions: 7-2 Props: 4-3

Benson Henderson def. Brandon Thatch by Submission (RNC) | Rnd. 4

In a truly masterful performance, the former Lightweight champion bided his time and slowly turned the fight in his favour. The size and power of Thatch was clearly giving ‘Smooth’ a great deal of trouble early on. Ben struggled to get in range, landing a nice right hook to the body, but not much else. It was clear that Thatch’s strikes were having a greater impact. Ben appeared to be down on the cards after 2 rounds, but after a couple failed attempts to get the fight to the mat, he did and took the bigger man’s back. Round 4 saw another struggle of Henderson to get the fight to the mat, but it was clear that Thatch was fading and the takedown eventually submission followed. The speed, movement, and experience of Benson was on display throughout and despite his early struggles he pulled through. This win is massive for Henderson and will hopefully help him to rebuild a run at his natural weight class. For Thatch, he lost to a champion, but the experience should help him as he moves forward in his young career. Predictions: 8-2 Props: 4-3

The bet pack is posted below; the Gold Betting Section was perfect, along with a perfect Top 5 confidence list, #1, 2, and 4 Value bets cashing in, and the lone counter bet of the night also a winner. Take a look below and don’t forget to check back in next weekend for UFC Fight Night 61.

Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available

The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.

eVENT PASSWORD copyUFN 60: Henderson vs Thatch

Parlay Header

We are switching from betting with Dollar amounts to betting with Units. If you are unfamiliar with Units, expand the link below to see an indepth explanation.

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Benson Henderson $2.16 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $2.16 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 10.8 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Kevin Lee $1.68 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Chas Skelly $1.47 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Zach Makovsky $1.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $4.62 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 32.34 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Rodrigo de Lima $1.87
Selection 2: Patrick Walsh $1.59
Selection 3: Kevin Lee $1.68 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $5.00 x Bet: 3.5 units
Payout: 17.5 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Ray Borg/ Chris Kelades Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.69
Selection 2: Max Holloway/ Cole Miller Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.15
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Price: $3.64 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 14.56 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Benson Henderson $2.16 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Zach Makovsky $1.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Rodrigo de Lima $1.87
Selection 4: Kevin Lee $1.68 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $12.69 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 50.76 units 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Benson Henderson $2.16 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Max Holloway/ Cole Miller Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.15
Selection 3: Neil Magny/ Kiichi Kunimoto Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.90 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Efrain Escudero/ Rodrigo de Lima Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.10
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Price: $18.53 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 74.12 units
 

James Moontasri $1.46 vs Cody Pfister $3.01 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I do think that Moontasri wins this bout, but with all of the uncertainty surround his opponent it would be wise to tread carefully. I will examine the total in Betting Scenario’s section, but to be blunt this is not my favourite fight to bet on this weekend.

4 STARS

Tim Elliott $2.04 vs Zach Makovsky $1.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight should be close and the odds reflect that. Both guys are coming off loses to top level competition and are in need of a win. Makovsky is the more accredited grappler and has the slicker ground game, but if Elliott can stay on top that would be huge. All things considered, Elliott’s wins come when he is able to bully his opponents and I just don’t see him doing that to Makovsky. I like the price here, there is some solid value on Makovsky and considering there are some untouchable fights on this card I will most likely use him in a Gold section parlay.4 STARS

Chas Skelly $1.47 vs Jim Alers $2.91 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

After picking his debut correctly, I have lost 2 straight with Skelly. I have underestimated just how good he is on the floor. Alers is a very capable fighter with a lot of potential but I just don’t see him being able to out grapple Skelly. If Alers can’t find some success with his wrestling then he will lose a key component of his attack. I expect that Skelly’s ability to take him down and smother him on the mat, combined with the high altitude will take a lot out of Alers and that will cost him in the second half of this fight. At this price, I will most likely slip Skelly into a Gold Pack parlay.

4 STARS

Efrain Escudero $2.00 vs Rodrigo de Lima $1.87

Escudero simply can’t keep his foot in the door and the UFC has given him ample opportunities. Unfortunately, Lima is the prototypical fighter that has given Efrain trouble. Efrain has a great finishing rate on the mat, but when he is the lesser grappler he is in trouble. Lima is a strong grappler and moving down to LW will had to his power. He is far from perfect as a wrestler, but he is pretty tough to shake off once the fight hits the mat as Neil Magny found out. I expect that Efrain’s striking output will be limited by his fear of getting taken down and Lima will capitalize. The altitude and weight cut are concerning for Lima, but I will take the Brazilian here and probably make a single bet or pair him up in the Silver section because of the above listed issues.

4 STARS

Nik Lentz $1.24 vs Levan Makashvili $4.94- Cancelled

I’m not interested in betting Lentz here at this price against a late replacement opponent who will surprise most with how competitive he will be. The total is worth a look here.

4 STARS

Ray Borg $1.14 vs Chris Kelades $6.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Borg is a pretty hefty fav for a guy with just a single UFC win. As a result this is a No Play for me. Kelades already owns a nice upset and if he can get on top and avoid the flash submission skills of Borg he could conceivably grind this one out. I will look at the total here as the best betting option.

4 STARS

Kevin Lee $1.68 vs Michel Prazeres $2.38 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Prazeres’s upset over Mairbek Taisumov is noteworthy. He took down a pretty strong wrestler and kept him down. If he can do that again against Lee, it is not the most exciting approach, but it is a recipe for success. Lee has a massive reach and is the superior striker. He can’t let the threat of a TD stunt his offense and I think his confidence in his wrestling will help him. The cardio of Prazeres isn’t great normally so I think the conditions will further diminish his abilities even earlier then normal. I will play Lee in a Gold Parlay pack.

4 STARS

Daniel Kelly $2.50 vs Patrick Walsh $1.59

This is a fight that I am not really pumped to watch, but I am hoping that it surpasses my expectations. All indications are that Kelly has a limited window in which to win this bout. He is an early fight finisher and at his age his cardio not surprisingly is a little suspect. Walsh isn’t flashy, he is a big time grinder and while I don’t expect him to take the Judo fighter down with ease (at least early) I expect him to break him down with pressure until Kelly’s exhaustion trumps his skills. I wish Walsh was a better striker, a good chin isn’t enough by it self. I will drop him to the Silver pack in a parlay.

4 STARS

Neil Magny $1.17 vs Kiichi Kunimoto $6.05 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Clearly there should be no interest in backing Magny here as the odds reflect his dominant run and perceived superiority over Kunimoto. That being said, Magny has been taken down a number of times in his current winning streak and if KK can reproduce those numbers he could turn this fight in his favour. I will take a long look at the total, but picking a side here is for the foolhardy.

4 STARS

Max Holloway $1.26 vs Cole Miller $4.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Similar to the above fight, this bout shouldn’t hold much interest when picking a side. Holloway pays a little better then Mangy, but there is still some sizeable risk if Miller can get this fight to the ground. I am not saying I wouldn’t consider a small inclusion on a parlay for Max, but a bet on the total by be more warranted.

4 STARS

Benson Henderson $2.16 vs Brandon Thatch $1.83 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a tough fight to predict. Benson is a multi-promotional champion and has been fighting at a much higher level then Thatch. But Thatch is a massive WW and offers a variety of weapons that could undo ‘Smooth’. I really went back and forth on this fight, but settled on Benson because I feel Thatch’s current success hinges on his ability to take his opponent out of commission inside the first round. Henderson has been finished twice inside the first frame, but I feel he will be able to survive the opening frame and then take over the fight. Speed and pace will be the key to his success. I think a single bet here in the gold pack is probably the best option here.

1. Neil Magny $1.17 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Max Holloway $1.26 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Ray Borg $1.14 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Chas Skelly $1.47 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Kevin Lee $1.68 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Rodrigo de Lima $1.87

7. Zach Makovsky $1.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Benson Henderson $2.16 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Patrick Walsh $1.59

10. James Moontasri $1.46 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

 

1. Benson Henderson $2.16 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med // The former champion gets the nod here because of his price. He has to survive the early flurry, but it should be ‘Smooth’ sailing from then on out.

2. Zach Makovsky $1.87 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med // This should be a fun fight. I think that Makovsky is the better all around fighter, but Elliott is still a tough out. Makovsky could walk away with this one or it could be as close as a split decision but I think he gets the better of enough positional situations to warrant this spot.

3. Rodrigo de Lima $1.87  // Efrain can’t seem to get a UFC win to save his Octagon career and he will be in trouble again here. de Lima could gas and falter, but I think his aggression on the mat carries him to a win.

4. Kevin Lee $1.68 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med // Lee gets this spot because of my struggles with prop bets of late. Every time I think about this fight I can’t stop focussing on Prazeres’s win over Taisumov, but my head still says Lee takes this bout.

5. Holloway/ Miller Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.15  // Max is really coming into his own and I feel he has the ability to stop Miller, especially as he starts to slow down. Look for those body shots to have a massive impact.

1. Daniel Kelly $2.50  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med // Kelly looked awfully upset that Walsh failed to make weight so badly. That could up his determination level. The big question here is how hard did Walsh expend himself trying to get down. If he did that works in Kelly’s favour. Possibly worth a look here.

2. N/A

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information

 

Prop Bets

James Moontasri/ Cody Pfister 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario’s section.

Tim Elliott/ Zach Makovsky 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario’s section.

Efrain Escudero/ Rodrigo de Lima Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.10

The Brazilian has a pension for ending fights early. He has finished 4 of his 8 wins inside the first round and 1 more within the second frame. Both of his defeats, including his debut have also come before the start of the final 5. Escudero has gone into the third round or to a decision in 13 of his last 14 fights. Not great for the Under. He does have 9 first round finishes of his own and he has been submitted twice. I am counting on the thin air playing a role here to, especially for de Lima.

Ray Borg/ Chris Kelades Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.69

Borg has finished 8 pro/amateur bouts inside the first 5 minutes, 6 of those before the 3 minute mark. All but one of his wins has taken place before the final round. The Canadian started his career with several quick wins but has just one finish over his last 5 fights. He is a grinder and that may give Kelades trouble, but the manner in which he struggled early with Holohan on the floor is concerning against a slick grappler like Borg. 2.5 rounds should be enough for him to lock something up.

Daniel Kelly/ Patrick Walsh Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.67 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Walsh has a stout chin and is a grinder that won’t be looking for a quick finish. He has gone the distance in 2 straight. Kelly has put away the vast majority of his opponents, but I struggle to see him finding much consistency with his Judo against a strong wrestler. This bout might end inside the distance, but I think 1.5 rounds won’t provide sufficient time to do so.

Neil Magny/ Kiichi Kunimoto Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.90 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Magny has started to find his stride with his striking, finishing 2 of his last 3 opponents. His reach and output will give a lot of trouble to a fighter that was hurt twice in his last 2 fights. Both guys have fairly high decision totals, but the near even line gives credence to the possibility of an early finish.

Max Holloway/ Cole Miller Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.15

I have Holloway winning and he was able to finish all of his 2014 opponents (4) inside the distance. Miller is a bit chinny and has just a partial gas tank that I expect to be further diminished by fighting in Denver. Look for Max to targeted the elongated mid-section of his lanky opponent and put Miller down with something nasty to the body.

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