UFN 59: McGregor vs Siver- Retrospective & Bet Pack Review
UFC Fight Night 59 may have not been packed with a big names from top to bottom, but nearly every fighter, even the lesser known ones, put on an entertaining night of fights. From Joby Sanchez dropping Tateki Matsuda early and often, to several late third round stoppages, this was an event that every true MMA fan could appreciate.
Entertainment aside, most spectators would label this event “controversial judging”. Between Cathal Pendred vs. Sean Spencer, and Donald Cerrone vs. Benson Henderson, social media was blowing up with cries of robbery decisions, not to mention that one judge had scored two rounds to one in favor of Tateki Matsuda over Joby Sanchez.
Sean O’Connell vs. Matt Van Buren was awarded fight of the night, and I showcased a much improved Van Buren from what was previously witnessed in his past bouts. Like Sean O’Connell himself said, Van Buren used his reach advantage much more effectively than in prior fights. Constanly catching O’Connell coming in and looking strong in the clinch, Van Buren seemed to have the edge. However, tides turned after O’Connell connected and looked as if to stun Van Buren. From there, O’Connell pressure for the finish. Although Van Buren wasn’t dropped again, the ref stepped in when had no other answer except to cover up the best he could. Many would call this a come from behind win.
Most predictions had Charles Rosa submitting Sean Soriano, and although Soriano avoided Rosa’s Jiu-Jitsu well throughout the fight, he eventually succumbed to a D’Arce choke late in the third round. Adding to the overall controversial nature of this event, was the fact that Soriano protested the stoppage. Review shows that he did in fact tap, but only once. Nevertheless, it was a clear tap and Rosa shouldn’t have his victory hindered. After this victory, I’m very much looking forward to seeing who he will be match up against next.
Lorenz Larkin made his welterweight debut against John Howard, and his quick finish showed that he can be a force to be reckoned with at 170lbs.
We’ve heard a great deal about Cathal Pendred vs. Sean Spencer being an outright robbery, but I find that most people are making it seem as if Pendred was lackluster and amounted close to zero offense , but that’s definitely not the case. Pendred came out quite aggressive and took control early with his grappling, but Spencer made a dominate comeback, rocking Pendred numerous times. I won’t argue that the final decision wasn’t a poor judgment call, but I will argue that Pendred certainly made it a closer fight than most people give him credit for.
Like Cathal Pendred vs. Sean Spencer, many had refered to Donald Cerrone vs. Benson Henderson as a terrible decision. For the record, I watched the fight several times and scored it for each fighter on more than once. Both fighters exchanged flurries, leg kicks, and head kicks. Cerrone was fairly successful in getting takedowns, but it wasn’t long before Henderson was able to get back to his feet, and the exchanges continued. Both fighters had their moments, and this certainly wasn’t a robbery by any stretch of the imagination.
In the main event, Conor McGregor went toe to toe with Dennis Siver with a shot at Jose Aldo on the line. Siver was able to take McGregor down on two occasions, but just for a split second, as McGregor seemed more than capable of quickly creating space to getting back to his feet. At the midpoint of round one, McGregor starting connecting with greater regularity until the round came to an end, Siver looked rather befuddled. Things picked up right where they left off with the start of the second round, with McGregor pressing the action. A minute and a half in, McGregor drops Siver and climbs into the mount where he lands elbows until the ref has seen enough. McGregor jumps out of the octagon and confronts Jose Aldo, who is sitting in the front row.
Looks like McGregor will in fact be getting the next crack at Aldo’s belt, and Dana White told the media that it was being planned for next May in Las Vegas. There’s no doubt in my mind that this will be an excellent fight, and I haven’t the slightest idea who I will pick to win.
UFC Fight Night 59: McGregor vs Siver
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Donald Cerrone $2.23 =================================================== Price: $2.23 x Bet: $100 Payout: $223 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Johnny Case $1.58 Selection 2: Charles Rosa $1.76 Selection 3: O’Connell/ Van Buren Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.00 =================================================== Price: $5.57 x Bet: $100 Payout: $557 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Donald Cerrone $2.23 Selection 2: McGregor/ Siver Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.57 Selection 3: Sean Spencer $1.67 Selection 4: Joby Sanchez $1.63 =================================================== Price: $9.54 x Bet: $100 Payout: $954 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Charles Rosa $1.76 Selection 2: Gleison Tibau $1.73 Selection 3: Wade/ Lipeng Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.71 Selection 4: Case/ Perez Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.81 =================================================== Price: $9.43 x Bet: $100 Payout: $943 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Donald Cerrone to Win by Decision $3.30 Selection 2: O’Connell/ Van Buren Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.00 Selection 3: Gleison Tibau $1.73 Selection 4: Sean Spencer $1.67 Selection 5: Wade/ Lipeng Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.71 =================================================== Price: $32.61 x Bet: $100 Payout: $3261
Joby Sanchez $1.63 vs Tateki Matsuda $2.55
This fight plays into a couple of scenarios, but they counter each other. I will break then down in the Betting Scenario section. I like Sanchez here, but I do see an avenue for Tateki to win this bout. If he can routinely ground Sanchez and bring a slight size advantage into play that is his best way to win. Unfortunately, I look back to the Jones/ Cormier breakdown that Chael Sonnen did where he talked about fighters cutting a division and running into faster, more skilled, and better conditioned fighters. I think that is the case here. I will take Sanchez as part of a Gold Parlay bet.
Sean O’Connell $1.59 vs Matt Van Buren $2.74
O’Connell is a favourite here, which is pretty odd for a guy that has gone 0-2 inside the UFC. Van Buren didn’t exactly turn heads in his TUF final and he was far from impressive getting to the final. This fight could really go either way and the unknown factor is the improvements that MVB has made since the tourney finals. I think the best play here is a bet on the total which will be posted in the Prop section.
Charles Rosa $1.76 vs Sean Soriano $2.20
Two more fighters with a combined 0-3 record in the UFC. I would say Rosa was more impressive, hanging with Dennis Siver on short notice compared to Soriano who got subbed by Kawajiri and then lost to a 2 week notice opponent in Chas Skelly. The key to this fight is going to be the ground game of Rosa. He is more of a capable striker then most give him credit for and having a second dimension that Soriano has struggled with in his previous 2 fights will be the deciding factor. Its hard to throw a big pile of cash down on a winless fighter, so that drops Rosa to a Silver parlay leg.
Patrick Holohan $1.38 vs Shane Howell $3.52
I’m not that interested in playing this fight. Depending on the total, I might give it a look. I really feel that Holohan was carried to his debut win by the home crowd and he didn’t look that great in his second fight. Howell is vulnerable on the mat, but he faced a grappling ace in his debut and was coming off a massive layoff. I will pass here and re-address the total later on.
Chris Wade $1.22 vs Zhang Lipeng $5.44
I feel very confident that Wade takes this fight, but the return is just too low to bother with hi here. I feel a bet on the total is probably the best option. I like the Under and will elaborate in the proper section.
Johnny Case $1.58 vs Frankie Perez $2.58
This was my last prediction and I actually forgot it when I was putting together the betting breakdowns. I gave Perez a good look but I just didn’t see enough to pick the dog. I am not saying he won’t show us enough to win, but I needed to see more. Case has some flaws, or at least showed some in his debut, but he is in a good camp, and corrections can be made. I think Case edges this one out in this one, as Perez slows after the first. Silver parlay leg here.
Lorenz Larkin $1.67 vs John Howard $2.40
I took a really long look at ‘Doomsday’ here. As I mentioned above, there are a lot of issues when a fighter drops down a division. Especially in their first fight when they are still trying to acclimatize themselves to the speed and pace. That being said, Howard isn’t that quick to start with and he tends to leave long period of inactivity between his attacks that should helps Larkin to deal with any pace issues. I see Larkin simply outworking him here and as long as he can avoid the power, he should be the front runner. Yes, Howard is fighting at home which is a big advantage, but I don’t think he has looked that good in any of his return performances. With the debut factor weighing in and a 3 fight losing streak, Larkin joins many others on the undercard as a Silver Parlay leg, but he is on the fence for a move to the Gold section.
Cathal Pendred $2.40 vs Sean Spencer $1.67
People seem to really be in love with Cathal and I hope that helps to push the value of Spencer up. Pendred barely eked by Umalatov and was inches away from getting finished by Mike King. Spencer has steadily improved since his debut, building up his TDD and improving his output on the feet. He is far more technical then Pendred and has shown superior conditioning. I wouldn’t be the least shocked to see Cathal take the first round, but in the process empty his load. The following two rounds should consist of Pendred swinging wildly and trying to get the fight to the mat with lesser and lesser success while Spencer picks away at him on the feet. I like Spencer on a Gold parlay play and the total is also of interest here.
Gleison Tibau $1.73 vs Norman Parke $2.25
Here is another fight that I was very much on the fence. Tiba’s fights usually play out in 1 of 2 ways, or at least most of them. He either uses his wrestling to grind out the first 2 rounds and then hold on in the 3rd or he fails to get off to a good start and falls behind more and more as the fight progresses. I think he has a very good chance of taking Parke down and grind him on the mat. If he gets on top he is incredibly hard to shuck off. More so his TDD will take away Parke’s grappling game. Tibau’s boxing is serviceable, but he doesn’t want to favour it over his bigger weapons. He is a veteran fighter and I have him a worthwhile play at this price in the Gold package for a parlay.
Ron Stallings $8.02 vs Urijah Hall $1.15
I won’t waste your time here- Hall is a No Play and Stallings might have been worth a shot with more then a week’s notice. I wouldn’t be shocked if Stallings pulled it off, but its not worth my money. I will take a gander at the total as it is probably the best option to play this fight. Leaving this fight off your bet card wouldn’t be the worst idea either.
Benson Henderson $1.78 vs Donald Cerrone $2.23
The third time is the charm? Cerrone is 0-2 vs Ben, but that 1st fight was a close one. They both have come a long way since that fight, but I think Cerrone is in a different place right now. BUT… he is fight on 2 weeks notice. For most fighters that would be a taller order, but Cerrone seems like that type that will thrive in that type of circumstance. Chris Leben had a similar “zero f*cks given” attitude when he fought twice in 2 weeks and won. I know that is only a small portion of it but it is worth mentioning. Cerrone’s sub game is better then it was the first time they met and his striking has improved drastically. I think Benson is vulnerable on the feet so this fight comes down to TDD. Cerrone has improved his counter wrestling and his range striking and counter knees will be tough for Ben to close the distance. Cerrone is on a roll while Henderson has been sputtering, so at this price I will take a shot on Cowboy for a single bet, most likely in the Silver section. There are 2 main reasons Cerrone is the dog- 2 week turn around and 0-2 record vs Henderson- both understandably make Cerrone the dog.
Connor McGregor $1.11 vs Dennis Siver $10.00
Is Siver upsetting McGregor the biggest upset in UFC history? Hardly. Siver is far better then these odds would suggest, but I still have McGregor taking it home. Unfortunately, he isn’t worth betting on. McGregor has called his win as a knockout in under 2 minutes, I can see why he would be confident to predict that and he possess similar traits to those that have damage Siver in the past (Sub, Cowboy, Guillard)- speed and power. I think the Under looks like a playable option, but the price will be low.
1. Connor McGregor $1.11
2. Chris Wade $1.22
3. Sean Spencer $1.67
4. Joby Sanchez $1.63
5. Urijah Hall $1.15
6. Donald Cerrone $2.23
7. Lorenz Larkin $1.67
8. Gleison Tibau $1.73
9. Patrick Holohan $1.38
10. Johnny Case $1.58
11. Charles Rosa $1.76
12. Sean O’Connell $1.59
1. Donald Cerrone $2.23 // It is hard to be against a fighter on a 6 fight winning streak, even though he is taking the bout on 2 weeks notice and with an opponent he is 0-2 against. This could be Cerrone’s last shot to earn a title shot, so he comes out motivated.
2. Gleison Tibau $1.73 // His success hinges on his ability to take Parke down and then not gas out in the process.
3. Joby Sanchez $1.63 // Matsuda looked slower then average at BW, and it should be even worse at 125 pounds. A solid play here on a fighter who almost pulled off a massive upset in his debut.
4. Lorenz Larkin $1.67 // This is it for Larkin if he can’t win here. Howard hasn’t impressed me since his return and he will most likely fight a style that works well for Larkin.
5. See the OPU #2.
1. Ron Stallings $8.02 // I was tempted to put Siver on this list, but I went with Stallings instead. This is Hall’s fight to win obviously, but if he comes in underestimating Stallings, who subsequently see the great opportunity in front of him and rises to the occasion- we could see an upset. Only bet this fight if you have a little extra bankroll, but even a small bet will make a nice return.
Exclusive Bet Pack Content
Joby Sanchez/ Tateki Matsuda
See Betting Scenario Section.
Sean O’Connell/ Matt Van Buren
See Betting Scenario Section.
Charles Rosa/ Sean Soriano Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.80
A pretty solid price on the Over here, mainly because both men have been consistent finishers in their careers. But, you can see that as Soriano has increased the quality of his opposition, the length of his fights have gotten longer. 3 decisions and 15 rounds over his last 4 fights compared to 8 rounds over his first 6 fights. Rosa hung with Siver, but went to decision for the first time in his career. A finish could happen and that is why we get such a good price on the Over.
Patrick Holohan/Shane Howell Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.81
I understand why this fight is set at 1.5 rounds, no question. Holohan has won 8 times by submission and Howell is carry a dismal 5 of 8 losses by sub. Upon further investigation, we can see that 3 of his 5 submission losses came very early in his career and the fifth came vs a dynamic sub fighter in his short notice UFC debut that came after taking the fight on short notice. Prior to that he had lost just once by submission in 12 fights. With a full camp I think he is able to keep this fight going for at least a round and a half. Play the Over.
Chris Wade/ Zhang Lipeng Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.71
I am a little surprised that we are getting 2.5 rounds here. Lipeng has been submitted in 5 of his last 7 defeats. He has avoided the sub over his last 3 fights, but you just have to go back to mid 2013 to see his last lose by tap out. Wade showed is flash submission skills in his debut and has won 3 of his last 3 by sub, with 2 subs coming inside the first 90 seconds. I think Wade is a big step up from those that Lipeng has been facing and that shows up here. Play the Under.
Johnny Case/ Frankie Perez Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.81
Similar to Rosa/ Soriano, this fight is a perfect example of 2 fighters taking a step up in competition that should result in their bout time increasing. Case has already seen his last 4 fights go deep into round 2, including just the 2nd decision of his career. Perez is a talented finisher taking this fight on short notice against a better opponent then he has faced to date will probably curb that. He has also gone to decision in 2 straight fights and in 3 of his last 5 after 0 decisions through the first 5 bouts of his career.
Cathal Pendred/ Sean Spencer
See Betting Scenario Section.
Ron Stallings/ Urijah Hall Total Rounds Over 2.5 $2.50
Hall’s recent performances outside of TUF haven’t really shown a high finishing rate. He has gone into the 3rd round in 6 of his last 8 fights and 8 times in his last 13 fights. His only UFC stoppage was a retiring Leben electing not to answer the bell. Stallings has been knocked out twice, but the last came in 2009. He has gone the distance in 3 of his last 5, including a 5 rounder. I play the Over and anticipate that this fight is either a bit of a disappointment or Stallings rises to the occasion and they go the distance.
Benson Henderson/ Donald Cerrone
See Betting Scenario Section.
Connor McGregor/ Dennis Siver Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.57
McGregor has called it himself- he will finish Siver in under 2 minutes. I think he posses similar problems to the type of opponents that have beaten and finished Siver in the past. I will take the Irishman’s word for it and play the under.