UFN 58: Machida x Dollaway- Retrospective & Bet Pack Review
In another blazing hot arena, the Brazilians dominated- winning 8 of 11 fights involving a local taking on a foreign fighter in the final UFC card of 2014. The heavily favoured former UFC champions took wins in both the UFC Fight Night 58 co-main event and main event and I went 10-2 with my predictions. From a gambling perspective, I ended the year strong as well. The UFN 58 Bet Pack produced $1460 in winnings, the 3rd straight card with a 4 digit winning total. All the details are posted below, but first let’s take a look at the card top to bottom.
VITOR MIRANDA def. JAKE COLLIER via TKO- Rnd. 1
Continuing not one but two successful betting scenarios, Vitor Miranda mounted a furious comeback in the final moments of the first round after Jake Collier controlled the majority of the action on the floor. A head kick and follow-up swarmed on the befuddled American brought about the end of the fight at the 4:59 mark. Predictions 1-0 Props 1-0
TIM MEANS def. MARCIO ALEXANDRE JR.S via Split Decision
In a fight that appeared to go Mean’s way, the Brazilian was awarded the win on one of the 3 judges’ scorecards. Alexandre did score a knock down of Means midway through the fight, but he was fortunate to still be in the contest as a borderline knee strike appeared to end the battle was ruled illegal. This was nearly the type of outcome that discourages foreign fighters from making the trip down to Brazil to compete. Predictions 2-0 Props 2-0
LEANDRO ISSA def. ULKA SASKI via Submission- Rnd. 2
Issa came in as a very heavy dog, but took home a tidy submission win over a fighter known for a pretty tricky submission game of his own. Issa may never get a sniff of the mid to upper echelon of the division, but he has secured himself a spot on the next couple of Brazilian fight cards. Predictions 2-1 Props 3-0
HACRAN DIAS def. DARREN ELKINS via Decision
Dias’s size and strength proved too much for his American counterpart. Dias fended of the wrestling based advances of Elkins and even turned the tables on him. The Nova Uniao product augmented his grappling skills with a superior striking assault which sealed him a pretty wide victory. Predictions 3-1 Props 3-0
RENATO MOICANO def. TOM NIINIMAKI by Submission- Rnd. 2
With a little less than 2 weeks’ notice, Moicano stepped up to replace Rony Jason and turned in an impressive performance. With a cool and calm demeanour, Renato continually out landed the Fin and when the fight hit the ground he sunk in the RNC- most likely sending Niinimaki packing from the promotion with 3 straight losses by submission. Predictions 4-1 Props 3-0
MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA def. IGOR POKRAJAC via TKO- Rnd.1
The former Strikeforce competitor made short work of his opponent, landing a hard combination as Igor came forward and then following him to the mat for the finish. In reality, Pokrajac is on a 5 fight losing streak and most likely won’t see the inside of the Octagon again. De Lima certainly turned some heads with the win and could inject a little life into a division badly in need of some new faces. Predictions 5-1 Props 3-1
DANIEL SARAFIAN def. ANTONIO DOS SANTOS JR. via TKO (Injury)- Rnd. 2
In a battle of friends, the injury replacement ADS Jr. appeared to be on his way to victory over TUF Brazil alumni Daniel Sarafian. ADS Jr. was landing some solid strikes and had the clear hand speed advantage, but a dislocated finger ended the bout prematurely and gave Sarafian the victory. A rematch on the next Brazil card is warranted. Predictions 6-1 Props 3-1
ERICK SILVA def. MIKE RHODES via Submission- Rnd. 1
Erick Silva made very quick work of Mike Rhodes, fending off an early guillotine attempt and turned the position in his favour ending the fight with an arm-triangle. Silva continues to have success against lower level opposition and needs to be booked with that in mind. Predictions 7-1 Props 3-2
RASHID MAGOMEDOV def. ELIAS SILVERIO via TKO- Rnd. 3
The Russian striker scored a massive stoppage of fellow rising Lightweight Elias Silverio. Magomedov appeared to be on his way to a win, but fighting in Brazil against a local is always a tough proposition if you rely on the judges to make the appropriate call. Magomedov has clearly earned himself a shot at an upper level adversary and I have heard the Daron Cruickshank’s named tossed around- that works for me. Predictions 7-2 Props 4-2
PATRICK CUMMINS def. ANTONIO CARLOS JR. via Decision
Despite his disappointed debut, Cummins is quickly building momentum and won his 3rd straight UFC bout. He used a strong top game to shutdown the submission heavy attack of his opponent and wear him down leading to a wide win on all scorecards. Cummins could get himself a fight with another lower level opponent as he looks to climb the ranks. A bout with the winner of the upcoming Krylov/ Nedkov fight would be workable. 8-2 Props 4-2
RENAN BARAO def. MITCH GAGNON via Submission- Rnd. 3
The former Bantamweight champion didn’t annihilate his opponent like many predicted, but he did come away with a solid submission win that opens the door for a future title shot. Barao versus Raphael Assuncao as a title eliminator has been talked about, but I would like to see Barao setup to fight the winner of Cruz/ Dillashaw next. Gagnon has a solid showing and many felt won the second round until gassing under the hot conditions and meeting his untimely end. His performance should open the door for some higher level opponents with Takeya Mizugaki a potential next opponent. 9-2 Props 5-2
LYOTO MACHIDA def. CB DOLLAWAY via TKO- Rnd. 1
It was over before it started. CB’s climb up the ranks took an abrupt downturn after just 62 seconds in the cage with the former Light Heavyweight champion. A swift kick to the American’s midsection and Lyoto Machida was on to bigger and better things in his own pursuit of the 185 strap. Machida has already been talked about in a high profile title eliminator with Luke Rockhold. A fight that most fans want book, it should materialize in the first half of 2015. For CB Dollaway, it is a pretty significant setback. Tim Kennedy or Michael Bisping could provide another high profile opponent for his next bout. 10-2 Props 5-3
The curtain comes down on 2014, but a star-studded 2015 schedule is almost upon us with the highly anticipated Jones vs Cormier LHW title bout getting us started. Make sure to take a look at a very successful bet pack posted below. Parlay winnings: $1460, 5 for 5 Confidence List, Value Bets: #2, #3, #4, & #5, and 5 of 8 winning props.
In closing, please have a wonderful and safe end to the year and all the best to you and yours in 2015.
UFC Fight Night 58
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: ELIAS SILVERIO $2.35 =================================================== Price: $2.35 x Bet: $100 Payout: $235 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: HACRAN DIAS $1.56 Selection 2: PATRICK CUMMINS $1.63 Selection 3: TIM MEANS $1.47 =================================================== Price: $3.74 x Bet: $100 Payout: $374 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: VITOR MIRANDA $2.55 =================================================== Price: $2.55 x Bet: $100 Payout: $255 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: RENATO CARNEIRO $1.99 Selection 2: VITOR MIRANDA/JAKE COLLIER Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.50 Selection 3: DANIEL SARAFIAN $1.67 =================================================== Price: $8.31 x Bet: $100 Payout: $831 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: ELIAS SILVERIO $2.35 Selection 2: VITOR MIRANDA/JAKE COLLIER Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.50 Selection 3: PATRICK CUMMINS $1.63 Selection 4: DANIEL SARAFIAN $1.67 =================================================== Price: $16.00 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1600 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: VITOR MIRANDA $2.55 Selection 2: IGOR POKRAJAC/ MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.25 Selection 3: HACRAN DIAS $1.56 Selection 4: ERICK SILVA/ MIKE RHODES Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.93 =================================================== Price: $17.28 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1728 =================================================== Parlay #1 All-Brazil =================================================== Selection 1: VITOR MIRANDA $2.55 Selection 2: ELIAS SILVERIO $2.35 Selection 3: HACRAN DIAS $1.56 Selection 4: DANIEL SARAFIAN $1.67 Selection 5: RENATO CARNEIRO $1.99 =================================================== Price: $31.07 x Bet: $100 Payout: $3107
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
VITOR MIRANDA $2.55 vs JAKE COLLIER $1.60
I was a little surprised when I saw the line after breaking the fight down and giving my prediction. Collier is pretty raw and has just recently started face non-bottom of the barrel opponents. Miranda is more refined and showed the type of power capable of taking out HWs. If the cut to 185 goes as planned his kickboxing coupled with the debut factor and hostile environment weighing against Collier are all positives to make this an EPU. Over the last 9 cards we have seen 8 EPUs land. The theory has rolling qualifications usually covering the first 2-3 fights, depending on other criteria like debuts, divisional changes, layoffs, limited MMA experience, relative unknown status, and so on. I think Miranda takes it early and gets the Brazil crowd going. I am sitting on the fence, I think Miranda could be a solid single play- Silver or Gold still undecided. I am also looking at the total.
TIM MEANS $1.47 vs MARCIO ALEXANDRE JR 3.06
Not every Brazilian can win on the card and I think this is one of the them. This fight should be contested almost 100% on the feet, not including potential knock downs. Means’s downfall has been based almost entirely come against wrestling heavy attacks. Masvidal 6 takedowns, Castillo 6 takedowns, Magny 4 takedowns. He has won the other 14 fights he has been involved with since early 2010. I don’t see his opponent putting up those type of numbers. At this price I see Means being a valid candidate for a Golden leg of a parlay. I am also looking at the total.
LEANDRO ISSA $5.15 vs YUTA SASAKI $1.25
Issa has looked pretty darn poor in his 2 fights, yet he still has a win to show for his “efforts”. The line is pretty massive and considering that Saski has less then 2 minutes of total Octagon time betting a side here is simply not an option. The total is an option here, but needs further investigation.
DARREN ELKINS $2.74 vs HACRAN DIAS $1.56
Elkins is a good wrestler, but far from a great wrestler. We have seen several times where he has been utterly shutdown by his opposition and the strongest aspect of his attack rendered a non-factor. Dias is a big strong grappler with the superior striking repertoire. Martins lacked the ability to keep Ekins off him long enough to get his striking involved, that won’t be the case for this Brazilian. It won’t even be that shocking to me if Dias puts Elkins on his back at times. Either way, I don’t see Elkins sneaking out another decision win here. I have Dias at this price being a legit player in the Gold package as a leg of a parlay.
RENATO CARNEIRO $1.99 vs TOM NIINIMAKI $2.03
The Fin has looked out of his depth in his last 2 fights. Yes, Carneiro is taking this fight on short notice and is relatively unproven but I can’t back Niinimaki for a third straight fight. Especially when his opponent exhibits similar traits to the type of fighter he has struggled with. The price is right, but there are too many red flags to consider this an option for a Gold play. I am thinking a Silver parlay contributor for either a 2 or 3 leg package.
IGOR POKRAJAC $3.99 vs MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA $1.31
Igor has really fallen on some hard times of late, so much so, that he is making his 12th UFC appearance and is an underdog to a guy with less then 30 seconds of Octagon time. If Igor can get through the first round we could see De Lima slow down and his power become less of a threat, unfortunately I doubt that happens. Pokrajac’s chin is faltering and his reliance on his striking leaves him wide open to be blasted into oblivion by a big power puncher. I am not really excited about betting a side here, but the total seems playable. 7 of the last 10 “prelim main events” have gone over the total, but with their combined power and Pokrajac’s chin liabilities it would appear that this fight could fit into the 30% that go under the total. I will post a final assessment in the prop section. DANIEL SARAFIAN $1.67 vs ANTONIO DOS SANTOS JR. $2.45 As always, I have no problem saying when I was originally picking against a fighter as was the case here with Sarafian. ADS is a pretty good striker and can work from top position. Combine that with Dan’s recent struggles and it makes this fight look like a prime candidate for an upset. But, with ADS making his debut on very short notice I backed off. Additionally, this fight is at Middleweight and Sarafian hasn’t looked that bad at 185- a submission win and 2 split decision losses- one against CB. Sarafian is the more well rounded fighter, not the better striker but still competent enough to compete and superior on the mat. I have found in several scenarios that fighters ranging between $1.60 and $1.85 tend to come through with the win. I have to do further research into that trend and see if the numbers hold up, but frequently I find myself on the wrong end of these odds if I take the dog. I think Sarafian can grind him down and get back in the win column here. I am leaning towards him as a Silver Parlay leg as he has good pop- but the wins have been hard to come by and ADS is relatively unknown.
ERICK SILVA $1.29 vs MIKE RHODES $4.30
I always look forward to Erick Silva’s fight because you know we will see something interesting one way or another. I also remember when many were discussing future title fight wars between Rory and the Brazilian. While Rory has improved significantly and taken his game to the next level, it would appear that Silva is regressing slightly or has simply hit his ceiling. Rhodes had some big expectations as well, but has failed miserably to get things going with 2 relatively uneventful bouts that both ended in defeat. I think Silva can overwhelm him early with his aggression and volume, but the big risk there is that if Rhodes is still standing after the initial flurry is over, Silva could be in trouble. At this price I won’t be playing the Brazilian, but I may consider a bet on the total here. There is some potential for a bet on Rhodes, but I am still on the fence. ELIAS SILVERIO $2.35 vs RASHID MAGOMEDOV $1.76
I predicted this fight before the odds came out and I was a little bit shocked. I don’t like to downplay wins, but Tony’s Martin’s struggles of late and seeing Rodrigo Damm get stopped by Al Iaquinta makes me question the Russian taking both to decisions. Conversely, Silverio put his last opponent away and took a very wide decision from IVF. Silverio’s grappling should add him a nice point scoring avenue and keep Mags backed off a little. I also think his volume will be a nice edge in addition to fighting at home. This line is in that danger area that I will be doing some future investigation into with Mags being mid $1.70, but I do thin the line is wrong. Elias takes this bout, a solid single bet in my books, potentially for the Gold pack.
ANTONIO CARLOS JR $2.60 vs PATRICK CUMMINS $1.63
Is Patrick Cummins the monster that the UFC tried to play him up as? No, but he has looked much better of late. He has the wrestling pedigree that could make him dangerous if he can supplement it with a capable striking repertoire. For Carlos, a very good BJJ player, it is going to be very tough sledding in his first encounter with an American wrestler. If he can catch him in a rush he could gain an advantageous position, but that is going to be tough. I am a bit concerned with the possibility of Cummins getting tired if the arena is overly hot and struggling to perform in the second half. All that being said, his price is still pretty solid and with AC Jr. only having minimal experience competing beyond the first round he isn’t exactly known for being a cardio horse. Cummins makes the cut as a Gold parlay leg.
MITCH GAGNON $7.45 vs RENAN BARAO $1.13
Clearly these odds are unplayable if you are in the Barao corner. The Canadian is much more capable of winning this fight then these odds would suggest, but Barao is a championship calibre fighter. Even if he doesn’t have the belt, beating Urijah Faber is something significant that most of the division can’t do. I think a small bet on Mitch Gagnon wouldn’t be the biggest misstep you could make. In fact, I think Mitch will do well enough to warrant an Over bet on the total, but I need to have one final look there before I give it the thumbs up. CB DOLLAWAY $6.30 vs LYOTO MACHIDA $1.17
“R-E-S-P-E-C-T, he can’t get none, none for CB.” Dollaway has most definitely been one of the better comeback stories of the year. He has 2 wins so far in 2014 and hasn’t had a legitimate loss since 2011. Yet he is still a massive underdog here. Granted, he is facing a former LHW champ and one of the more difficult fighters to face in the world. Can CB pull this one out? Absolutely, so a bet on a Machida side isn’t worth the risk/ miniscule reward. CB has to be the best CB we have ever seen and even then it is going to be a struggle. If he can keep Lyoto backing up and “running” away while appearing the more aggressive striker that would go a long way. I think Machida wins and short of a fluke, CB isn’t worth a bet either. I will look at the total, but there is a real chance the main part of your betting could be concluded before the main event begins.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. HACRAN DIAS $1.56
2. LYOTO MACHIDA $1.17
3. TIM MEANS $1.47
4. RENAN BARAO $1.13
5. PATRICK CUMMINS $1.63
6. YUTA SASAKI $1.25
7. MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA $1.31
8. DANIEL SARAFIAN $1.67
9. ERICK SILVA $1.29
10. ELIAS SILVERIO $2.35
11. VITOR MIRANDA $2.55
12. RENATO CARNEIRO $1.99
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Elias Silverio||$2.35||Mags is 2-0 but against less then impressive opposition. Martin had him in trouble, but gassed and Damm is a fighter that fails to utilize his best skills. It could be close and if that is the case take the Brazilian.|
|2.||Vitor Miranda||$2.55||I was a little surprised when I saw this line after breaking down this fight. The oddsmakers must see something in Vitor’s opponent that I don’t. EPU.|
|3.||Patrick Cummins||$1.63||At this price it is not the flashiest of Value plays, but he is a very solid contributor to your parlays.|
|4.||Miranda/ Collier Under 1.5||$2.50||I know I am double dipping here, but the numbers have been solid on this trend.|
|5.||Renato Carneiro||$1.99||Late replacement fighters are always tough to predict. Renato does have the advantage of a training partner who has fought his opponent and his submission game has the potential to continue the Fins’ recent struggles on the floor.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Counter Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Mike Rhodes||$4.30||If Silva can’t end this fight in the first round he isn’t the same fighter. Rhodes needs to weather the early storm and could pull off the upset if he does.|
|2.||Mitch Gagnon||$7.45||Gagnon isn’t nearly as over-matched as this line would suggest. He should still be a significant dog, but the line offers enough value to put some cash on the Canadian.|
VITOR MIRANDA/JAKE COLLIER Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.50- After UFC 181 where both opening fights went the distance, we have seen two straight cards start with quick finishes. On the TUF 20 Finale Aisling Daly won by submission in the first and on FOX 13 it was another first round sub by Ian Entwistle. Miranda has been involved in 9 of 13 fights that have gone under the total. I will play the Under.
TIM MEANS/ MARCIO ALEXANDRE JR Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.66- At the UFC level Tim Means has gone the full 3 rounds 5 of 6 times. He may get the finish here, but unless he comes out really aggressive Alexandre’s Karate based attack should keep him out of danger for at least half the fight.
LEANDRO ISSA/ YUTA SASAKI Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.71- Sasaki is a submission ace and Issa is a highly accomplished BJJ player. There is the potential that someone (Sasaki) catches something early, but I can see this fight going into the second half with a series of interesting grappling exchanges and/or some cautious striking standoffs.
IGOR POKRAJAC/ MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.25- Here we are simply playing the numbers. 7 of the last 10 final prelim bouts have gone over the total, Igor has gone Over in 6 of 11 fights (3 of the 5 unders were wins), and finally you are getting some solid value. The public will most definitely be on the Under because they lack this insight. Play the Over.
ERICK SILVA/ MIKE RHODES Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.93- Most people will be on the Under here and I can understand why. Silva seems to be a killer when he is on, but he only appears to be on against lower level competition. I won’t be betting on Silva to win and I have read several breakdowns that have Rhodes winning a decision. I will take the middle road and play the over.
ELIAS SILVERIO/ RASHID MAGOMEDOV Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.51- They have a combined 17 decisions + Silverio’s most recent win that all went over the total in just 30 fights. The price isn’t that flashy, but it does add a little pop to a parlay if you are looking for one more leg.
MITCH GAGNON/ RENAN BARAO Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.71- Barao is unplayable and Gagnon isn’t as hopeless as these odds would suggest, but I think this is worth a shot. Gagnon isn’t going to be easy to put away and unless he falters under the pressure of the biggest fight of his career, his physical gifts and defensive wrestling should help him drag this into the second frame.
CB DOLLAWAY/ LYOTO MACHIDA Total Rounds Over 2.5 $2.20- I always like to give some type of play on the main event as people like to have an investment on the last fight of the night. Machida should win this by knockout, but Dollaway has come a long way from his back to back stoppage defeats. Machida has just 1 finish in his last 5 fights and while he has faced some tough opposition during that span I think Dollaway can continue that trend. This is a bit of a risk, but that is why we give a little more on the price tag.