UFN 57: Edgar vs Swanson- Retrospective & Bet Pack Review
UFC Fight Night 57 in Austin, Texas was headlined by a battle of Featherweight contenders and was highlighted by the latest finish in UFC history. The card featured just 5 of the 12 bouts ending inside the distance- 2 by submission and 3 by knockout. Award winners were Frankie Edgar and Oleksiy Oliynyk for Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night went to Paige VanZant and Kailin Curran.
From a prediction standpoint, I went 6-6 overall. The Bet Pack in its entirety is posted below. Let’s take a look at the highlights from the card.
Doo Ho Choi made good on a new UFC trend I promoted in my Bet Pack by starching Juan Puig. With two quick knockouts Puig will most likely be shown his walking papers, but could get recalled when the promotion returns to Mexico next year.
The FOTN winner came in the Women’s Strawweight division as Paige VanZant stopped Kailin Curran in a spirited battle. VanZant headlines a strong group of female 125ers awaiting the official conclusion of TUF 20 where the division’s first champion will be crowned.
After a long career as one of the best Lightweights on the planet, Yves Edwards may have finally met his end. After suffering a quick knockdown against Akbarh Arreola he eventually fell victim to an armbar. Arreola picked up a must needed win over a noteworthy opponent, after failing on multiple occasions earlier in his career.
In a contestable decision, Texas native James Vick defeated German born Nick Hein. Hein scored a pair of knockdowns in the opening round and appeared to carry the action in the final frame after Vick controlled the middle round. In the end, Vick was awarded the fight by all 3 judges including one who gave him deplorable 30-27.
In fairly pedestrian affair, Roger Narvaez got UFC victory #1, while Luke Barnatt suffered his second consecutive defeat.
Ruslan Magomedov earned his second Octagon victory in as many tries when he outdueled the debuting Josh Copeland. Surprising for a Heavyweight, Magomedov is now 7-0 in decision having won 5 straight.
One of the more entertaining bouts of the evening saw Matt Wiman take a close decision win over Isaac Vallie-Flagg after nearly 2 years on the shelf. The striking exchanges were close range and gritty, but the deciding factor was Wiman’s dominance on the mat.
Joe Benavidez continued what has to be one of the most frustrating runs in the promotion. He has shown that he is superior to pretty much the entire division, but with a pair of losses to the champ he will need to wait until enough other contenders have had their crack at the title before he will get another call. Dustin Ortiz showed remarkable durability and clearly improved his stock despite the defeat.
Oleksiy Oliynyk improved on his improbable run, disposing of Jared Rosholt inside the first round. Rosholt was controlling the action early and had his Ukrainian counterpart on the defensive, but one well-timed counter brought the contest to an abrupt end.
In the Flyweight division, Chico Camus earned a very big win in his divisional debut. Conversely, Brad Pickett’s time at 125 pounds hasn’t been well spent and a return to 135 might be wise.
Edson Barboza rocketed up the ranks to the 6th overall in his division with an impressive decision victory over Bobby Green. Green’s style of waving off strikes and down playing their impact didn’t hold up in the face of an aggressive and very active striker.
In the main event, Frankie Edgar made a statement. On the strength of a dominant wrestling game the ‘Answer’ grounded Cub Swanson and capped the fight off with the latest stoppage win in the history of the promotion. The striking exchanges were competitive, but Edgar’s drive to put Cub on the floor was relentless. Swanson now takes a step back in his title pursuit and will need to rebuild his case for a shot. Swanson rematching a full-camp Dustin Poirier would be a good fight.
For Frankie, he certainly could be paired up in a rematch with the champion. Some have called for Edgar to square off with Chad Mendes, while Aldo would be most likely be aligned with Conor McGregor should he get by Dennis Siver. Either way, there are some interesting times ahead for all involved.
I went 6-6 overall which is a disappointment and while the bet pack did have some bright spots it didn’t produce anything noteworthy. Take a look below. UFC 181 is our next event in 2 weeks and it looks awesome. I will be attempting to get back in front of the camera for this card should time allow.
UFC Fight Night 57
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: FRANKIE EDGAR to Win by Decision $2.47 =================================================== Price: $2.47 x Bet: $100 Payout: $247 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: KAILIN CURRAN $2.35 =================================================== Price: $2.35 x Bet: $100 Payout: $235 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: NICK HEIN $2.86 =================================================== Price: $2.86 x Bet: $100 Payout: $286 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: FRANKIE EDGAR $1.51 Selection 2: JARED ROSHOLT $1.45 Selection 3: EDSON BARBOZA $1.95 =================================================== Price: $4.27 x Bet: $100 Payout: $427 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: DOOHO CHOI/ JUAN PUIG Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.20 Selection 2: JOSH COPELAND/ RUSLAN MAGOMEDOV Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.69 Selection 3: BRAD PICKETT $1.51 =================================================== Price: $5.62 x Bet: $100 Payout: $562 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: KAILIN CURRAN $2.35 Selection 2: MATT WIMAN $1.52 Selection 3: YVES EDWARDS $1.43 =================================================== Price: $5.11 x Bet: $100 Payout: $511 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: JARED ROSHOLT/ OLEKSIY OLIYNYK Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.59 Selection 2: DUSTIN ORTIZ/ JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.70 Selection 3: NICK HEIN $2.86 Selection 4: EDSON BARBOZA $1.95 =================================================== Price: $23.95 x Bet: $100 Payout: $2395 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: FRANKIE EDGAR to Win by Decision $2.47 Selection 2: KAILIN CURRAN $2.35 Selection 3: NICK HEIN $2.86 Selection 4: DOOHO CHOI/ JUAN PUIG Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.20 =================================================== Price: $36.52 x Bet: $100 Payout: $3652
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
DOOHO CHOI $1.28 vs JUAN PUIG $4.30
Puig is a massive underdog despite already having his debut in the books, his opponent has not, and he has also fought with the last few months, his opponent has not. These are two red flags that favour the dog here. Based on what I have seen I prefer Choi as a fighter, but with these other issues this fight falls into the EPU category and I will pass.
I will consider a prop bet, most likely the Under. I have posted several times regarding the EPU and the final fight of the prelims almost always being a solid over bet. These are trends I have uncovered and here is another one. Over the last 12 events of the 2 opening fights, 15 of 24 have hit the Under. That is a 63% success rate. Out of those 12 events only 2 have seen both opening bouts go Over, and one of those two included Colby Covington who got the finish just narrowly after the total had been surpassed. This has similar factors to the EPU. Fighters matched up when we know a lot less about them and as a result the outcome is much harder to determine. With the value on the under play this stat becomes very helpful considering we only need to compare the opening 2 fights and determine which one (maybe both are) is going to go under. Food for thought.
KAILIN CURRAN $2.35 vs PAIGE VANZANT $1.71
Here is my EPU play. Both fighters have minimal experience: Curran 3 fights and VanZant 4. Both are debuting. Both have minimal high level experience in both competition and exposure to the big stage. VanZant, the favourite, is also coming off a fairly lengthy break. To boot, they are fighting in a very new division. VanZant has garnered some headlines with her exclusion from the TUF house based on her name, which will make her the more well known of the two and more likely to take public money. The books know that and will help them along by making her an enticing favourite. I like what Curran brings. She has decent grappling and far better striking. VanZant has been out of action for a while so improvements could have been made, by I like the dog here based on what we do know. I watched almost every minute of their pro careers, so I feel good about this play and Curran should be a single bet in the Gold section.
YVES EDWARDS $1.43 vs AKBARH ARREOLA $3.06
This is pretty much it for Yves if he can’t get the job done here. He has lost 4 straight, one was turned a No Contest, but with only 2 wins over his last 6 things don’t look good for a vet in the deepest division in the promotion. Arreola was brought into help with the company’s push into Mexico, but I don’t think he is UFC calibre. He has fought several guys who have competed and won at this level with next to no success. Edwards is the more technical fighter and as long as he doesn’t gas or get clipped he should take this. A much better elevation (compared to his last fight) and fighting at home will lead him to victory. I like Yves here at this price, maybe in the Silver package because of the surrounding issues. The Under is also worth consideration.
JAMES VICK $1.49 vs NICK HEIN $2.86
Here is another of my upset picks. Vick has had the greater exposure with his time on TUF where he went to the semis and then a couple of solid wins on more televised shows. In comparison Hein has never fought outside of Germany and his only UFC win came on a Fight Pass undercard. Vick is very tall for the division which can have its advantage if he fights to maximize that style, but he doesn’t. He rushes in when attacking and leaves his chin up in the process. This creates 2 exploitable openings. Either Hein can land a big counter left or the more likely scenario, he grabs quick body control and puts Vick on his back. Hein is an accomplished Judoka, with a nice variety of throws and trips along with the more traditional takedown techniques at his disposal. Vick was taken down several time by a far less capable fighter and while he was able to eventually get back to his feet that could be difficult for Hein. Vick is fighting at home, which for a fighter that is already using a reckless style can create more openings as the moment overtakes him. I like Hein, probably as my number 1 play for a single bet. I am still undecided between Hein and Curran as my top pick, so you will have to check the Value list for my final decision.
LUKE BARNATT $1.32 vs ROGER NARVAEZ $3.89
Barnatt has impressed me so far in his UFC run. Narvaez’s top game possess some problems, but I don’t know if I see him getting their frequently enough to win this fight. Barnatt is hard to take down and his long range weapons make it tough for him to get in close for the TD. I am leaning towards Bigslow as a leg on a Gold Parlay and the Over/Under is also worth a look.
JOSH COPELAND $2.90 vs RUSLAN MAGOMEDOV $1.50
The prelim headliner is a Heavyweight bout which at first glance flies in the face of one of my trends, but I will address that momentarily. Copeland hits hard and we saw Mags floored a couple of times in his debut by a grappling based opponent. Ruslan is the far more accomplished fighter with better overall technique and superior experience. Most of Copeland’s fights that I watched came against “Heavyweights” who for the most part are just overweight guys who under the proper conditions would be fighting at Middleweight. I am not in a position to criticize, just stating my observation. At 6 1″ Copeland isn’t a massive man in his own right and could possible cut to 205 if things don’t go well during his initial foray in the land of the giants. I think Mags will be too strong for him and if this fight gets beyond the opening frame Copeland will have trouble keeping up on the cards. At HW anything can happen with one big shot, so Mags in the Silver section seems about right. As far as the Over/ Under is concerned, Heavies usually warrant a Under bet, but Magomedov as many decision wins as subs/knockout combined. He has also gone to the cards in 6 of his last 7 fights. I think Copeland is the more likely to get the finish, but I see Mags winning and that is why the UFC has positioned the fighter they feel more likely to win and go the distance in this position on the card. Savvy?
ISAAC VAILLE-FLAGG $2.74 vs MATT WIMAN $1.52
This is a tough one considering Wiman is coming back off a length layoff. If you look at the typical opponent that beats each man, Wiman fills he profile for IVF more then vice versa. Wiman has been beaten by technically sound strikers with solid TDD- TJ Grant, Sammy Stout, Dennis Siver, and Jim Miller. IVF has either struggled or been defeated by guys that could match his pace and/ or land takedowns- Gomi (pace) and Silverio (TDs) (JZ had a lot of success with TDs until he gassed and Yves won a clear round 2 when he took it to the floor). I am a little concerned with Wiman and the layoff, but this is the type of fight he wins. Wiman is tough as nails and uses his ground game accordingly. Wiman at $1.52 has enough pop in combo with my confidence in him to win to slide this fight into the Gold section on a parlay.
DUSTIN ORTIZ $4.56 vs JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ $1.27
At some point JB is going to stumble and lose a fight that costs him his position as either the second or third (Dodson) best fighter in the division. He has beat Formiga soundly and took a clear decision from McCall, is Ortiz going to be his stumbling block? Honestly, I gave some real thought to playing Ortiz here. He is a solid boxer and very crafty on the mat. The deciding factor was that he gave up a combined 10 takedowns in his last 2 fights but manage to survive split decisions in both by countering out the bad position. He shouldn’t have that type of luck against Joe-B. Playing the Alpha Male product straight up doesn’t make a lot of sense, but there are some interesting scenarios suggesting both sides of the total are betting options. I’ll make my choice in the props section.
JARED ROSHOLT $1.45 vs OLEKSIY OLIYNYK $3.07
It is hard to believe that these two fighters have two of the longest winning streak in the division currently. I like the way the UFC has brought Rosholt along. Debuted against a very green prospect, moved him long to another relatively new UFC fighter with more experience, and then to Soa who was destroying guys prior to running into the ‘Big Show’. Now he has another winning streak he needs to take care of. If he gets this win, it might be time to move onto another level of competition. For me, I see Rosholt defending the TDA’s early and then as double O starts to slow down, the American simply overtakes him with his work ethic. Rosholt’s TDD look up to snuff against Soa and that tells me he will be up to the challenge here. For betting purposes, I will play Rosholt as a parlay contributor in the Gold section. A prop play is also worth a look here.
BRAD PICKETT $1.51 vs CHICO CAMUS $2.80
This fight has some legitimate upset potential. I went with Pickett because I feel that Chico’s counter wrestling has cost him too often to overlook what Pickett can bring in the wrestling department. That being said, Chico’s striking technique could create some problems for the Brit. Another aspect of this fight that sways it back in favour of ‘One Punch’ is the weight cut. For Brad this is his third fight at this weight class and while physically it looks like it could be a lot for him, he should be feeling more comfortable fighting 125 then in fights 1 and even 2. For Chico, this is his first try at 125 and that can be tough. Even if the cut goes well, he may look to use a simplified approach to gauge how his body reacts to his new division. Pickett is a veteran who fought top level competition at 135, Chico did not. If Pickett is to stick around he needs to win and I will use him in the Gold Package based on his pedigree.
On a side note look for Pickett vs Benavidez in the future, probably a British card, if they both get wins here.
BOBBY GREEN $2.09 vs EDSON BARBOZA $1.95
The way the line is moving now, Edson could be the dog by fight time. Green has a lot going on, his older brother was just shot which clearly is playing on his mind. He has talked about hanging them up from MMA, most likely based on factors outside the cage and not in it. Things must be bad, because here is a fighter that has worked his way up from relative obscurity to a level of significance that many would not have expected. It wasn’t that long ago that he was a slight dog facing Matt Ricehouse back in Strikeforce. Now he has a win over Josh Thomson and has many people looking at him as a dark horse in the division. Unfortunately, I think his success ends here. He has a tendency to stand right in front of Barboza and that will give Edson plenty of opportunities to land those massive leg kicks. From there, Green’s reliance on speed and movement that was once his strong point will now be his down fall. Barboza’s chin is an issue for sure, but I still like him on parlay bet in the Gold package.
CUB SWANSON $2.89 vs FRANKIE EDGAR $1.51
It is understandable, but too bad that they have locked these two into this fight as I would love to see them both fight Aldo again. Swanson is quick, but he doesn’t use his speed the same way Frankie does. Cub throws a lot of singles or low volume combos, but then takes larger breaks between looking for his next opening. Frankie simply keeps coming forward and creates those openings with his pressure and quickness. Cub also take chances that can be costly from a position stand point that Edgar will most likely avoid and then capitalize on. I simply see Frankie being too much for him, especially in the later rounds. I did give some thought to playing Cub, but felt that Frankie is easily the toughest opponent he has face since Aldo and it will show. I think a Gold section parlay is the most advisable approach here.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. FRANKIE EDGAR $1.51
2. JARED ROSHOLT $1.45
3. LUKE BARNATT $1.32
4. JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ $1.27
5. BRAD PICKETT $1.51
6. EDSON BARBOZA $1.95
7. MATT WIMAN $1.52
8. YVES EDWARDS $1.43
9. DOOHO CHOI $1.28
10. RUSLAN MAGOMEDOV $1.50
11. KAILIN CURRAN $2.35
12. NICK HEIN $2.86
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||FRANKIE EDGAR to Win by Decision||$2.47||Edgar’s stoppages of Maynard and Penn have improved his KO numbers, but considering where both of those guys are in their respective careers its not nearly as impressive as it would have been 5 or more years ago. Cub stays around, Frankie takes the decision.|
|2.||KAILIN CURRAN||$2.35||Curran makes the jump over Hein simply because she is fighting a less accomplished opponent then the German.|
|3.||NICK HEIN||$2.86||Vick is at home and by the numbers he has some serious length advantages. Although during the weigh-ins it didn’t look nearly as significant as the numbers would suggest. I think Hein uses a strong counter game and takes this one.|
|4.||EDSON BARBOZA||$1.95||This is a tough fight as Green seems to routinely rise to the occasion. Edson is the toughest challenge of his career and I think it shows up.|
|5.||DOOHO CHOI/ JUAN PUIG Total Rounds Under 1.5||$2.20||I am putting my new theory on the line here. Let’s see how it plays out.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Counter Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||CHICO CAMUS||$2.80||Camus is certainly worth a look here for a single bet. He isn’t on the same elite level of the type of fighter that usually bests Pickett, but there are question about how much the Brit has left.|
|2.||DUSTIN ORTIZ||$4.56||Is this the fight that Benavidez finally stumbles? Ortiz is a tougher test then most give him credit for.|
The Value list for Counter Bets is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up. Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic. Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10. The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line. There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
DOOHO CHOI/ JUAN PUIG Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.20- Like I outlined in the breakdown: “Over the last 12 events of the 2 opening fights, 15 of 24 have hit the Under. That is a 63% success rate. Out of those 12 events only 2 have seen both opening bouts go Over, and one of those two included Colby Covington who got the finish just narrowly after the total had been surpassed.” Choi has big knockout numbers and Puig has shown solid finishing skills on the mat. With the second fight of the night in a division not known for big finishing rates this one continues the trend. Play the Under.
YVES EDWARDS/ AKBARH ARREOLA Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.90- With a combined 9 losses by knockout, 10 if you count the recent No Contest that saw Edwards get KOed by Yancy Medeiros. Both guys have finishing skills as well. The Under is a solid play, most likely banking on Yves saving his UFC career with an impressive performance at home.
LUKE BARNATT/ ROGER NARVAEZ Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.63- Barnatt is more then capable of ending this fight in the first half, but I think he respects the grappling of Narvaez enough to use his jab from the outside and not over commit to anything at least in the first round.
JOSH COPELAND/ RUSLAN MAGOMEDOV Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.69- Heavies usually warrant a play on the under, but in this case we have the final fight of the prelims which frequently go the distance by the UFC’s design. Mags has gone to the scorecards in 4 straight bouts and 6 of his last 7. Take the Over.
DUSTIN ORTIZ/ JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.70- Ortiz has never been finished, but Benavidez is basically the Urijah Faber of the division. Not good enough to beat the champ, but ahead of pretty much everyone else. He has finished his 4 of his 5 win before the end of the second round with only Ian McCall going the distance. Whether by sub or knockout, JB has a great chance at wrapping this one early.
JARED ROSHOLT/ OLEKSIY OLIYNYK Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.59- Back to back Over plays on Heavyweight bouts? Can that actually happen? I think Rosholt spends the first round defending attempts by OO take him down and then takes over the fight as his foe slows down. Rosholt has gone to decision 3 straight times and 5 times overall. Play the Over.
FRANKIE EDGAR to Win by Decision $2.47- Could Edgar get the stoppage, maybe, but Cub is pretty darn tough. I will take technically composed over aggressively destructive any day. Cub is fun to watch, but I think he makes too many mistake to deal with a elite fighter like Edgar At this price Frankie may become #1 value play.