UFC 179: Aldo x Mendes II- Pick Five & the Bet Pack Review
In an uncharacteristically off night for the Brazilian fighters at home, the only UFC champion not born in the USA stood tall in the UFC 179 main event. Jose Aldo successfully retained his World title with a five round decision win over Chad
Mendes in a bout that Dana White deemed the best Featherweight title fight that he had ever seen. Overall the locals went 5-6 and my prediction record was a fairly disappointing 6-5. Let’s that a look…
Tony Martin def. Fabricio Camoes by Submission Rnd. 1
Martin earned a first round submission win over Camoes, a BJJ Black belt who has now lost 5 times by submission. The Kimura that the American locked on seemed to last for almost the entire round before the tap, a tap which Mario Yamasaki initially didn’t see or choose not to recognize.
Gilbert Burns def. Christos Giagos by Submission Rnd.1
Burns picked up a successful win in his divisional debut, ending the bout with just 3 seconds on the clock. He is now 2-0 in the UFC with 2 solid wins under his belt. For Giagos that was a tough debut fight and should get a least one more chance before judgement is passed on his future or lack thereof with the promotion.
Andre Fili def. Felipe Arantes by Split Decision
Fili took a narrow decision in a back and forth battle, that this observer felt was too close for the Brazilian not to get the nod. Arantes showed continued improvement in his ground game landing a number of takedowns and passing his opponent’s guard. Fili’s ability to orchestrate a few reversals on the mat and push the pace during the striking exchanges ultimately gave him the decision.
Wilson Reis def. Scott Jorgensen by Submission Rnd. 1
Reis didn’t get off to a great start, but he landed a violent body kick that hurt Scotty and eventually lead to the Arm Triangle choke finish. Reis will usurp Jorgensen’s spot in the top 15 and Scott’s future with the company might be on the brink of conclusion.
Yan Cabral def. Naoyuki Kotani by Submission Rnd. 2
Kotani dropped what should be his final bout in his second stay in the UFC. He managed to push Cabral into the middle frame and had a few good moments, but ultimately fell to the fourth submission of the night.
Neil Magny def. William Macario by TKO Rnd. 3
With 5 wins in a row, all coming in 2014 Magny has pulled a Matt Brownesque resurrection to his career. After participating in a deplorable Season of the Ultimate Fighter where he feel in the semis and 2 losses in his first 3 fights, Magny has made himself relevant again but will face a bump up in competition next time out. He currently is tied with Roger Huerta for the most wins in one year, if he can stay healthy a sixth appearance in December isn’t out of the question. Macario struggled with the reach of Magny and took too much damage while dishing out too little. This performance will relegate him to the prelims of future Brazil cards.
Beneil Dariush def. Diego Ferreira by Decision
In a pretty forgettable fight, Dariush ended the undefeated run of Ferreira. The Brazilian, like many young and undefeated fighters struggled with an opponent he wasn’t able to get out of there in the early goings of the fight. Dariush has a long way to go before he cracks the top 15, but a win over another young prospect will nicely further his career along the right path.
Darren Elkins def. Lucas Martins by Split Decision
30-27 for Martins? Really!? Elkins didn’t win pretty by any stretch of the imagination, but he won the fight. Come on man! Elkins versus Lentz next please, their ability to match each other in the wrestling should produce a solid scrap.
Fabio Maldonado def. Hans Stringer by TKO Rnd. 2
Rinse, wash, repeat. In similar fashion to his victory over Gian Villante, Maldonado lost the first round due to his horrendous defensive grappling and then rallied to overcome an exhausted adversary. The main difference here is that Fabio was able to stop and simply overwhelmed Stringer in the second frame. It was pretty clear though that had Stringer’s cardio held up the fight was his to win. Maldonado will never crack the top 10, but there are some interesting fights ahead of him. A bout with Ryan Jimmo when he is fit to return could work.
Phil Davis def. Glover Teixeira by Decision
Davis is in a very unique point in his career- he has fought 4 of the 5 fighters ranked ahead of him with a record of 2-2. He isn’t at a point where he is ready to fight for the title, but needs to continue to face a high level of opponent to remain on the top of his game. Many are calling for a fight with Ryan Bader which makes much more sense then his callout of Anderson Silva. Glover’s performance puts his future title rematch aspirations on life support. A bout with Little Nog or another ‘older’ member of the division would be appropriate.
Jose Aldo def. Chad Mendes by Decision to retain Featherweight Championship
This was a great way to finish off a below average main card. Aldo’s inability or unwillingness to withhold his punches after the end of the first frame wasn’t the actions of a champion and the lack of admonishment from the official and possible point removal was not incorrect. After that, we were treated to a great back and forth that saw the champion truly pushed for the first time in his career. No one has put that type of damage on Aldo before. Mendes probably won’t get another shot for a long time because he is 0-2 versus the champ, but if he continues to improve we could get the third installment. Aldo has two solid challengers on the horizon. Up next should be a rematch with the winner of Edgar/Swanson and then if/when Dennis Siver falls to Conor McGregor the Notorious one will almost certainly be next in line. Both of these potential fights are exciting for a division headed by a incredibly dominant champion.
The prelims had some decent action and the PPV portion was only saved by the final fight. My 6-5 prediction record was a massive letdown and so was my bet pack. As promised I will be emailing all of my customers a link to buy the next double card bet pack for just $5. The bet pack did have a few highlights; 1 Winning Parlay of $397, 4 of 5 Confidence List, #3 & #5 Value Bets, Counter Bet: Phil Davis, and 3 of 5 winning Prop Bets. Take a look below at the Bet Pack Results.
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: William Macario $3.10 =================================================== Price: $3.10 x Bet: $100 Payout: $310 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Jose Aldo $1.51 Selection 2: Selection 3: Darren Elkins $1.61 =================================================== Price: $3.97 x Bet: $100 Payout: $397 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Diego Ferreira $1.50 Selection 3: Glover Teixeira/ =================================================== Price: $4.24 x Bet: $100 Payout: $424 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: Glover Teixeira $1.36 =================================================== Price: $4.84 x Bet: $100 Payout: $484 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Fabricio Camoes $1.91 Selection 2: Selection 3: Darren Elkins $1.61 =================================================== Price: $5.76 x Bet: $100 Payout: $576 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: William Macario $3.10 Selection 2: Selection 3: Darren Elkins $1.61 Selection 4: Diego Ferreira/ =================================================== Price: $19.60 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1960 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Jose Aldo to Win by Decision $3.70 Selection 2: Selection 3: Selection 4: Diego Ferreira/ =================================================== Price: $27.61 x Bet: $100 Payout: $2761 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: William Macario $3.10 Selection 2: Jose Aldo to Win by Decision $3.70 Selection 3: Selection 4: Selection 5: =================================================== Price: $76.22 x Bet: 100 Payout: $7622
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Fabricio Camoes $1.91 vs
The line has grown progressively closer together. Looking at Martin, he should be a wide favourite based purely on his athletic ability, but his inability keep up his pace has cost him in each of his first 2 fights. Why won’t it again? Many have gone into Brazil and struggled with the harsh atmosphere, become too emotionally charged or simply overwhelmed. If this happens to Martin his cardio is going to go right out the window. Camoes isn’t great and his record backs that up, but he is skilled enough to survive the early onslaught and then tap out a gassed opponent. If he can’t he should find enough success in rounds 2 and 3 to be given the decision at home. The odds are enticing, but with Camoes having so much trouble winning at this level I will probably cut this down to a Silver Single bet or a 2 leg parlay.
Gilbert Burns $1.29 vs
This is a fight I have minimal interest in betting. Burns is a heavy fav off of just a single UFC win and Giagos is a wildcard. Add in the 15 pound weight cut for Burns and we could see a significant upset, at least based on how the dollars are set. EPU possibility here, but I will pass altogether.
Felipe Arantes $2.09 vs
I like Arantes and gave him a long look. He has shown some improved offensive grappling and already has a pretty good striking attack. But, I wasn’t happy with the way he froze up against Souza, who used a primarily boxing based attack, something that Fili will use a lot of too. Additionally, Arantes seems quite vulnerable to being taken down and can be kept down. Fili’s ability to time and catch Holloway coming forward with TDAs was impressive and I expect he will find similar success here. Fili needs to avoid gassing out and has to protect his body as that cost him against Holloway, but I think he will simply due more and take a decision. It is hard picking against a Brazilian at home, but I am putting some serious consideration into Fili as a Gold play in a 2-3 leg parlay.
Scott Jorgensen $2.48 vs
I really like Reis here and feel he is getting some solid value. Jorgensen, from what I can see is done. His chin seems to take a hit in almost every single fight and his defensive grappling isn’t good enough to keep up with the top of the division. Reis isn’t at the top, but when you can take down Yuri Alcantara with regularity you are doing something right. I expect to see Reis take Scotty down with regularity and keep him there. I almost wouldn’t be shocked to see him land something that sends the former challenger stumbling backwards. I like Reis in the Gold Package, he is a solid addition to a parlay play.
Yan Cabral $1.17 vs
I will pass here too. Cabral is cutting down to 155 for the first time and while Kotani isn’t great he could hold his own in a primarily grappling based contest. In fact, I might consider playing the over depending on the price and total.
William Macario $3.10 vs
Final prelim bout, usually headed towards a decision. Not always, but more often then not. So the Over is worth a look. I am on a pretty high paying dog here in Macario. Yes he just picked up his first UFC win and Magny has won 4 in a row, but I have been more impressed out of what I saw from the Brazilian in 1 fight then Magny in his last 4. Magny picked up some gritty wins, but was put in some tough spots in each fight and was able to rally. I think Macario is the type that can put him in some tough spots and keep him there. I was really impressed with Macario’s striking versus Voelker, who is known for his toughness. Will put it on him and kept coming with a nice evenly pace and highly accurate assault. I think he does something similar here, maybe with a couple of takedowns mixed in and takes the decision as a result. I will be playing Macario as a Gold Bet single play, value to is too high to pass up.
Diego Ferreira $1.50 vs
Ferreira is still very raw, but still quite effective. On the mat he is a nightmare for most and his aggression makes him difficult to deal with on the feet. I don’t like MMA math, it doesn’t work. But comparing their 2 performance against Ramsey Nijem can tell you a lot. When you get stopped by Nijem’s striking that is something worth taking note of and not in a good way. Dariush carries his hands way to low for a guy that isn’t that fleet of foot and lacks a really strong all around striking game. That in itself will leave him open to a similar result to what Diego did to Ramsey. Catch him during an exchange and follow him to the ground for the finish- most likely by submission. Diego is a bit on the fence here, could make the cut as a leg on Gold Parlay, but could also slip to the Silver section.
Darren Elkins $1.61 vs
Martins continues to be a thorn in my side by routinely winning fights that he shouldn’t. Unfortunately, his luck runs out here. Unless he can clip Elkins early on, he is going to get wrestled into oblivion. Look for Elkins to shoot in, score the takedown and keep him there for large durations of the bout. Once Elkins has established his ability to take him down and keep him down Martins won’t be nearly as aggressive on the feet. I like Elkins in this $1.60 range and will use him as a parlay leg in the Gold section.
Fabio Maldonado $1.85 vs
This line is making some significant moves and some sites have Fabio as the dog now. Stringer has some serious flaws, the type that could allow Maldonado to steal the fight. It is hard for me to overlook the defensive liabilities that exist in the Brazilian’s game, especially when coupled with Stringer’s commitment to scoring takedowns and working along the cage. I he can do that consistently for at least 2 rounds without having a drop off in performance it will be hard for the judges to gift this fight to the local guy. Because Fabio tends to get the benefit of the doubt at home and Hans could easily slow down after the first and let Fabio off the hook, this fight slips to the Silver pack. I have put some consideration into playing him as a single bet, but I am leaning more and more to a 2 leg bet.
Glover Teixeira $1.36 vs
Glover is a heavy favourite, but Phil has been an absolute Brazilian killer- Machida, Nogueira, Prada, and Magalhaes have all fallen. Davis is still quite one dimensional, or at least he hasn’t developed his striking to the point that he can win a bout at this level solely on the feet. This fight is pretty simple in out it will play out. If Glover keeps the fight standing- he wins. If Glover spends large portions of the fight on his back- he losses. I’m not 100% sold on playing Glover at this price, he might make the cut on a parlay at least once but I am taking a longer look at the Over here.
Jose Aldo $1.51 vs
I agree 100% with Aldo, well maybe not 100%, but close. Mendes has improved his striking, but not evolved to the point that he can hang with the champion. The guys he starched with his new and improved arsenal are guys that are elite level strikers to start with. I’m not saying that if he lands flush on Aldo’s chin he won’t make an impact, but I saw too much in the first fight that suggests he is going to struggle to land consistently. Additionally, Mendes’s inability to take him down was also concerning, considering he had a few solid positions from which to work his wrestling. I will play Junior at this price as part of a Gold Parlay, I am also looking at the Over. I’ll explain that one later.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Jose Aldo $1.51
2. Yan Cabral $1.17
4. Darren Elkins $1.61
5. Glover Teixeira $1.36
7. Gilbert Burns $1.29
8. Diego Ferreira $1.50
9. William Macario $3.10
11. Fabricio Camoes $1.91
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||William Macario||$3.10||Macario looked good vs Voelker and I think he has the skills to put it on Magny and will be further encouraged by the Brazilian crowd. Big value here.|
|2.||$2.18||The value is bouncing around here, but still like Stringer at anything around $2. Fabio has won some fights that were either questionable or aided by outstanding circumstances.|
|3.||$1.87||A solid play here, simply more diverse then his opponent.|
|4.||Fabricio Camoes||$1.91||Banking on his opponent gassing for a third straight fight. The heat could play a role as it has in the past.|
|5.||$1.63||Jorgensen is done and Reis will put a stamp on him. Too good on the mat for Scotty to overcome.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||$3.89||Phil might be worth a look. He has an elite skill set with his wrestling and if he can bring it into play he can with this fight.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Jose Aldo to Win by Decision $3.70- I have talked about how epic back and forth battles that require rematches often see the second fight end quickly. I don’t know if it is because of all the extra time they each spend studying their opponent or what it is that often leads to this. I’m using some reverse logic here, I think Aldo keeps the fight at distance and lands with regularity on Mendes who struggles to find his range or land takedowns. A risk, but the return is there.