UFN 127: Werdum vs Volkov- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Fabricio Werdum $8600 
Fighter 2: Charles Byrd $7300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Magomed Ankalaev $9200 
Fighter 4: Mark Godbeer $7500 
Fighter 5: Jimi Manuwa $9000  
Fighter 6: Nasrat Haqparast $8300 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Leon Edwards $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Danny Roberts $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Fabricio Werdum -172 vs Alexander Volkov +190  

Volkov has looked pretty good of late and you have to wonder if Werdum will eventually hit a wall in his attempt to get back to a title fight. The key here is whether or not Volkov can land something significant against the pressure based striking game of Werdum or before Werdum can take him down. Volkov really hasn’t been tested by anyone looking to take him down, Werdum will do just that. If the fight goes the distance, Fabricio is the far more active striker. Werdum makes the cut in my Gold Play.

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Fabricio can finish with his hands and on the mat. He can also score points with takedowns or his volume which is well above average for a Heavy. He is very affordable at $8600- add him.

Jan Blachowicz +310 vs Jimi Manuwa -186 

We get a rematch of a fight that really wasn’t all that great. Manuwa’s chin is my biggest concern here, but JB doesn’t pack the punch that Rumble or Gus or Volkan has to offer. Jimi should be able to outwork him and either score a decision or put a stamp on him with a knockout. Gold Play.

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I left Manuwa off my lineup because he was a little pricey and Blachowicz has a fairly solid chin. The first fight saw him land less than 50 significant strikes- not a real enticing total. **Update, with this fight being a rematch I was able to make an adjustment to include Manuwa in my lineup. He is far more likely to score a finish then Edwards or Roberts.

Tom Duquesnoy -333 vs Terrion Ware +304 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am going to pass here. I like Duquesnoy, but not at this price. This fight could be fairly close if it hits the later stages. I will take a look at a prop bet here. Pass.

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Nothing to play here, too expensive even with the prospect of a stoppage.

Leon Edwards -190 vs Peter Sobotta +185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both guys have improved their overall games over their last handful of fights. Who has come further? Neither guy is a high volume striker, but I like the sharper approach of Edwards to win the exchanges. I also expect to see the newly improved ground game of Leon to play a role here. Gold Play.

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Edwards fits the bill for my lineup as I have him winning and he could pick up the stoppage. I am not seeing a lot of promise in the Fantasy world with so many unknowns so I will roll with what I know and play Edwards. **Update I dropped Edwards to my spare list after making a couple minor adjustments. Edwards is most likely winning a decision here.

Charles Byrd +100 vs John Phillips -125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is going to be an interesting and probably short fight. Both guys have finish heavy records and quick finishes at that! This fight could really go either way so investing heavily in it is probably not the best plan. Bronze Play.

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The Betting line and the Fantasy line don’t line up and Byrd is very cheap as a result. Between his sub skills and Phillips well below average defensive grappling, Bryd is a good play to snap up a quick finish for a discount.

Oliver Enkamp +155 vs Danny Roberts -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Enkamp showed a lot of promise in his debut, but I think Roberts is going to be too much for him. Roberts is the more effective striker and unless his chin is far worse then we expect, I don’t see Enkamp keeping up. Roberts should be able to outwork him on the feet for a sound decision win. Silver Play.

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Similar to Edwards, Roberts is a fighter we know and has shown he can stop guys in multiple ways. He isn’t going to wow us with his volume, but I will take a shot with him in a lineup I am not too excited about. **Update- Crazy how one move can change everything, Roberts is a spare now.

Hakeem Dawodu -260 vs Danny Henry +260 

Henry is tough and willing to trade, but that can get him into some trouble as he faces better quality opponents. That is the case here. Dawodu is a very good striker both offensively and defensively. I’ve Dawodu in my Silver play as he is making his debut.

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I considered playing Dawodu, but he is just so expensive I can’t afford him.

Magomed Ankalaev -588 vs Paul Craig +540 

Yup, nothing to look at here- way too big of a line for a debuting fighter.

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I do have Ankalaev in my lineup. He is a straight up killer and can do a lot of damage on the mat, a place where Craig will most likely want to go to try and operate his grappling game. That is a mistake. First round finish coming in- play him.

Kajan Johnson +165 vs Stevie Ray -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lots of people backing Ray here and I get it. I don’t like picking a fighter simply based on his opponent’s chin. Ray has power, but it has been a while since we have seen it. Johnson key here is staying active with both his strikes and his takedown game. Ray tends to wait a little too much and let his foe lead the dance. Johnson will capitalize on that and continue to succeed on the road. Silver Play.

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I don’t see KJ getting the stoppage unless it’s by submission. He is more expensive than my other dogs and less likely to get the finish. Pass.

Mark Godbeer +246 vs Dmitriy Sosnovskiy -271 

There were just too many scenarios riding against Sosnovskiy to back him here. He needs to get Godbeer down and to take him out. If Godbeer can make him work hard early, he will have a sizeable advantage on the feet once DS starts to slow down. I like the dog at home, but he is a Bronze play.

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Godbeer should be able to score a finish once DS tires and gasses out. If not, DS will be a human punching bag as he moves forward like a zombie. Add him to the lineup.

Nasrat Haqparast -137 vs Nad Narimani +165 

Nad is coming in on very short notice, after a long layoff, and he is moving up a division in his debut- that is a lot to overcome. I like Nasrat’s striking skills and full camp to be key here, especially if this fight goes long. Bronze play considering how little we know about these fighters.

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I originally passed here, but seeing Haqparast’s history of quick finishes and Nad’s problem with being a slow starter I will take a shot here. This play allowed me to dump both Edwards and Roberts to the spare list and add a much more capable finisher in Manuwa.

 

1. Magomed Ankalaev -588 

2. Fabricio Werdum -172 

3. Jimi Manuwa -186 

4. Hakeem Dawodu -260 

5. Leon Edwards -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Tom Duquesnoy -333 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Danny Roberts -165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Nasrat Haqparast -137 

9. Kajan Johnson +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Charles Byrd +10012379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Mark Godbeer +246 

 

1. Mark Godbeer +246 

2. Kajan Johnson +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Charles Byrd +100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Danny Roberts to Win by Decision +240 

5. Leon Edwards to Win by Decision +110 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Jan Blachowicz/Jimi Manuwa 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Tom Duquesnoy to Win by Decision +105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Duquesnoy is a guy that was smashing opponents on the regional scene, but finally got a step up in competition and went the distance. Ware is pretty darn durable and ate some big shots in each of his last 2 fights. His boxing background allows him to roll with the punches, but he is still getting tagged. I like Duquesnoy to get the better of the action, but I like the return on him winning it on the cards.

Leon Edwards to Win by Decision +110 

These fighters should match up fairly well, with Edwards just getting the better of the action. Sobotta has been finished just twice in 23 fights with his submission loss coming via punches. Edwards has gone the distance in 6 of his 8 fights in the UFC- winning 4. I like this bout to go the distance- bet accordingly.

Charles Byrd/John Phillips 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Danny Roberts to Win by Decision +240 

Roberts last 3 fights have ended by knockout and he has only gone the distance 3-times in the UFC. Those numbers are a little misguiding though. Finishes come much easier on the regional scene which helps a fighter build his record. Roberts finished a chinny Nash and was finished by big punchers in Taleb and Perry. Enkamp is not a big hitter and his karate- style will help keep him out of trouble. As a younger fighter, he is still pretty durable and will hold up better against Roberts punching power.

Hakeem Dawodu to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +202 

Henry is tough, but he is too willing to get hit. Dawodu throws power and does it with slick technique. His counter striking will be a nice foil to Henry’s aggression. “Mean” Hakeem gets him out of there inside the first 10 minutes.

Magomed Ankalaev/Paul Craig Under 1.5 Rounds -135 

I had this line closer -220 so it is a must play. Both guys are aggressive and will look from the finish from the onset of the fight. More importantly, both guys can get the finish from the same position and will probably end up there as a result. Ankalaev smashes from top position and Craig will attack of his back. I expect Craig to have another knockout added to his record, but lets keep both fighters’ skills in our favour.

Mark Godbeer/Dmitriy Sosnovskiy 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Nasrat Haqparast/Nad Narimani +165 

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

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