UFN 123: Swanson vs Ortega- Bet Pack Review

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

===================================================
Kamikaze
===================================================
Fighter 1: Eryk Anders $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Albert Morales $8000 
Fighter 3: Alexis Davis $7800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Cub Swanson $8100 
Fighter 5: Luke Sanders $9000 
Fighter 6: Darrell Horcher $7900 
===================================================
Salary Remaining:
 
===================================================
Subs
===================================================
Fighter 1: Marlon Moraes $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Merab Dvalishvili $8500 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Brian Ortega -105 vs Cub Swanson +110 

This is going to be an interesting fight and the line is dancing as a result. Oretga is super talented, but his style of fighting from behind is reckless and eventually will catch up to him. Is Cub the level where it stops working? I think so, Cub will out strike him, stay ahead, and avoid that big moment where T-City gets back in the fight. The line continues to move and my thought is that Swanson will be around +125 before the fight starts as Ortega is a very trendy pick- Gold Play on Cub.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ortega is hittable and over 5-rounds, Cub will put up some big numbers. He landed 209 in his last fight and while that might not be a number he approaches this time around. I have him coming in over his average of 80 pts and landing somewhere around 95-100. Add him.

Gabriel Benitez +285 vs Jason Knight -290 

The UFC likes Knight. He is an action fighter that puts it all on the line. For that reason, I expect that they have given him a very winnable fight here. Benitez is decent but vulnerable. Knight should find success outworking him on the feet and/or taking him down. I will take a shot here because I feel Knight should be closer to -360. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I passed on Knight simply because he was out of my price range. Another $100 cheaper and I’m all over him like white or brown on rice.

Aljamain Sterling +135 vs Marlon Moraes -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am really looking forward to this fight and I expect it to be very close. Very close. Moraes has to stay vertical and active. Sterling made big strides in his last fight, but his success could also have been attributed to Barao’s significant downturn. Either way, Moraes is the better striker and that is the key here. I’m not too concerned by the short notice in this fight, but considering how close I expect it to be I’ve got Moraes in the Silver section. Don’t be shocked to see a split decision.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Moraes is a spare. At $8600 he is affordable, but I don’t expect to see him get a finish. Use him for diversifications purposes only.

Scott Holtzman -116 vs Darrell Horcher +125 

Another closely lined fight that I expect to see come down to the wire. Holtzman has the volume in his favour, but feel Horcher will be able to hold his own. In fact, the aggression of Holtzman will bring out the best in Horcher. The key here is that Horcher will score a takedown or 2. Holtzman has issues staying vertical and Horcher will exploit that fact. In a fight that is going to be this close, take the dog here with a nice little return. Silver play for another potential split decision.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Horcher is worth $7900. I had exactly that much left when I picked my other 5 starters. He put up 63 points in his last fight which is respectable, but not overwhelming. I have him closer to 70 here with a slightly increased striking output and 2-3 takedowns. Add him.

Eryk Anders -276 vs Markus Perez +328 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There is a lot of unknown here which keeps me from diving in head first. I will take a look at a prop bet on Anders, but I think this fight is a pass for now.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am going to spend some cash on Anders for my fantasy team. He hits hard and I see Perez be very vulnerable on the feet. Look for Eryk to land the kill shot inside the first half of the fight and produce some big numbers. Add him.

Albert Morales +102 vs Benito Lopez -105 

Yet another near pick’em fight. I like the guy with experience at the UFC level to edge this one out. Morales is an aggressive striker, but I think he will score here with some top position time. Lopez will oblige him in a fun fight, but Morales edge it out when it counts. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I like the combo of Morales’s volume and potential takedown game to score points. We haven’t seen him finish anyone at the UFC level, but he has the potential to do so. Add him.

Alexis Davis +150 vs Liz Carmouche -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This line certainly caught me off guard and some sites do have it a little closer, but Davis is still the dog. Davis won the first fight and looked good doing so. Carmouche has been out of action quite a bit lately and while Alexis hasn’t exactly been super active, I don’t see anything that would suggest a different outcome. I guess there is the concern over the weight cut to 125, but with Davis as the dog she is a Gold Play for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Davis probably won’t get the stoppage, but she is affordable. Her best avenue to do so is via a sub, which produced her strongest fantasy numbers in recent memory when she subbed Kaufman. I’m not expecting much beyond 65 points, but she leaves us with money to buy other, bigger point producers.

Luke Sanders -240 vs Andre Soukhamthath +225 

Soukhamthath is taking this fight on short notice which probably won’t bode well for him. He tends to slow down and Sanders carries a hefty pace. Sanders should come out strong coming off his first career loss. Gold play here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Sanders came very close to finishing Alcantara and I could see something similar here. Even without a stoppage, the volume will be there. Sanders rebounds nicely and puts up some serious points. Add him.

Carls John De Tomas +320 vs Alex Perez -345 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is an easy pass for me. Perez should win, but this is a fight that could ruin your night and why bother risking it. No Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The Same can be said for here.

Frankie Saenz +150 vs Merab Dvaslishivili -158 

I have been fading Saenz of late with a lot of success. He is a guy who relies heavily on his wrestling and isn’t the same fighter without it. I don’t see him getting an edge here. Dvaslishivili will either take him down or at least keep him vertical and outwork him on the feet. I won’t go all in with a debuting fighter like this, Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With Saenz’s chin and Dvaslishivili’s willingness to wrestle, there are points to be picked up here. I have him as a sub as he is either too expensive to replace a cheaper play and too uncertain to replace a more expensive option.

Alejandro Perez +175 vs Iuri Alcantara -181 

I originally had Iuri in my Silver section, but the guy is just so inconsistent that I had to cut him down a level. He should win here against a fighter that doesn’t pose the threats of the typical guy that beats Alcantara. You need to push Alcantara from the start, Perez tends to start slow and pick it up as the fight advances. I feel he will either be too far behind or get finished before that happens. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Alcantara’s ability to finish fights makes him appealing, but I see better options elsewhere that cost a similar amount. Pass.

Chris Gruetzemacher +365 vs Davi Ramos -355 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing here. I’ve got Ramos, but Gritz could pull this one out with a hard-nosed effort. Maybe a counter bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pass,

Antonio Braga Neto +235 vs Trevin Giles -245 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I will take a look at the total, but a side bet isn’t happening.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Giles is too expensive, especially considering how quickly a submission loss could kill your night. Too much cash for a possible goose egg.

 

1. Jason Knight -290 

2. Luke Sanders -240 

3. Eryk Anders -276 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Alexis Davis +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Marlon Moraes -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

====================

6. Cub Swanson +110 

7. Albert Morales +102 

8. Darrell Horcher +125 

9. Merab Dvaslishivili -158 

10. Iuri Alcantara -181 

11. Alex Perez -345 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Trevin Giles -245 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Davi Ramos -355 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Alexis Davis +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Darrell Horcher +125 

3. Cub Swanson +110 

4. Albert Morales +102 

5. Marlon Moraes -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Chris Gruetzemacher +365:Both opening 2 dogs have an avenue to an upset, playing them together could be interesting.

2. Antonio Braga Neto +235: See above.

3.

4.

5.

bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

Jason Knight Wins inside the distance +125 

I will keep this play a little more open-ended. Benitez has been finished on multiple occasions and I feel like Knight has the tools to accomplish either a knockout or a submission. At plus money, backing Knight to get the finish is a strong option for me.

Marlon Moraes to Win by Decision +130 

This fight stands to be very close and if you can get a prop bet on the outcome coming down to a split decision, do it. I feel Moraes out works him here, but it will be close. They both can counter and I expect that to be on full display throughout the fight. It will come down to the impact and speed of Marlon to edge it out on the cards, 29-28, 28-29, 29-28.

Eryk Anders to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +100 

Anders hits hard, but let’s not sell the farm just yet because Natal is notorious for having a bad chin. Either way, I see Perez struggling with his pressure and a left hand eventually connecting for the finish. I will take it at even money.

Alexis Davis/Liz Carmouche 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Chris Gruetzemacher/Davi Ramos

See Betting Scenario Section.

Antonio Braga Neto/Trevin Giles 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White