UFN 120: Poirier vs Pettis- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Dustin Poirier $8000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Nate Marquardt $7100 
Fighter 3: Junior Albini $8900 
Fighter 4: Karl Robertson $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Michel Quinones $7700 
Fighter 6: Marcel Fortuna $8600 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Raphael Assuncao $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Sean Strickland $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 

Anthony Pettis -110 vs Dustin Poirier +106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This line is moving back and forth and I would expect that Poirier’s value will climb a bit more before they fight. Dustin is still hungry, he hasn’t been there yet despite how long he has been at the top of the division. I just don’t have a lot of faith in Pettis here unless he can stop Poirier. Dustin’s style is just more effective over  5 round fight. Dustin slides in as a top Gold Play and the confidence grows with his value.

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Over 5-rounds Dustin can score points as he pushes a decent pace and isn’t against going to the mat. He is also capable of scoring a stoppage here and I think Pettis is on the downturn of his career, sped up by his ill-advised cut to 145 pounds. Add him.

Diego Sanchez +304 vs Matt Brown -327 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Brown is retiring, possibly retiring, after this fight. I’m not too interested in betting this fight. I might look at a finish prop. Pass.

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Diego can be finished and Brown is a decent finisher. That being said, your money is better spent elsewhere pass.

Andrei Arlovski +317 vs Junior Albini -315 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Albini looks interesting but is too unproven for this big of a line. AA might have an upset in him. Pass.

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If Albini wins it will most like be by knockout, that makes him a solid candidate for my starting 6. AA’s chin is bad and things are going downhill all over again. Add him.

Cezar Ferreira -270 vs Nate Marquardt +252 

I love Marquardt as the big dog here. He has good power in his hands still and against Cezar it only takes one. Ferreira’s striking D is just not good and his chin is constantly up for grabs. Their ground skills could very well cancel each other out and then I’ll take my chances at this price on the dog. Silver Play.

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Nate is very affordable and will most likely win by knockout if he does win this fight. His affordability opens up other opportunities. Add him and then go spending.

Matthew Lopez +284 vs Raphael Assuncao -321 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Assuncao should take this and with Lopez missing weight the line should spread further. Either way, its a pass for me as Assuncao style could create a closer fight then I want for this little of a benefit.

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I’ve got Raphael as a sub. He has some pop in his hands and his submission game is very good. Lopez has a questionable cardio and having missed weight it could be worse. Sub.

Clay Guida -105 vs Joe Lauzon +107 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I went back and forth on this one and there are compelling arguments on both sides of the fight. Lauzon wins with a stoppage, but his window for victory starts closing from the opening bell. Guida needs to keep bouncing around, stay out of danger and force Lauzon to exert energy. Clay will need a few takedowns and to show continued improvement in his striking. Close fight if it goes to the judges. Silver play.

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I don’t see Guida stopping him and his volume isn’t amazing, no points for movement, crazy hair, or pre-fights slaps. Pass.

John Dodson -104 vs Marlon Moraes +105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Another close fight. I think Dodson might have been figured out a bit. His striking offence is a little one note and his attacks come in linear patterns. If he can’t get his foe out of there, he can win, but it is a much tougher go. Moraes is quick, hits hard, and has a more diverse offence. He will need a better performance than in his debut, but we also need to remember how good Assuncao really is. Moraes wins a close fight. Gold Play.

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While Moraes can finish, Dodson is very tough to get out of there. I will pass.

Tatiana Suarez -268 vs Viviane Pereira +257 

Suarez could very well come out and look fantastic after a long layoff and time well spent improving. Pereira has been more active, has more experience, and has the more well-rounded attack. Suarez needs to wrestling and grind her out or submit her. I think VP holds her at bay and slowly takes over with a more and more aggressive striking attack.

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Pereira has some finishes on her record, but I feel like we can find better options elsewhere.

Michel Quinones +160 vs Sage Northcutt -157 

Fading Sage seems like the thing to do here. Quinones is aggressive and tough which will pretty test Northcutt’s heart. If Sage can set up is offence, he can find success. I just don’t see Michel giving him enough time to do so. Sage fades in a gritty fight and gets finished. Bronze play.

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I’ve got Quinones in my lineup. He has a finish heavy record with a lot of those stoppages coming early. I expect him to get after it early and keep Sage on his back foot for however long this fight lasts. Add him at a very affordable $7700.

Angela Hill -181 vs Nina Ansaroff +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Ansaroff has lost some close fights early, but I think her last win was more indicative of what she can do. This fight stands to be a very close with a pair of capable strikers both having their moments. My call here is that Nina mixes in a couple of TDAs, lands a few and/or does enough to throw Hill off. Silver Play.

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This fight probably goes to the cards unless Nina gets a good spot on the floor. Pass.

Court McGee +241 vs Sean Strickland -240 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Court isn’t the same fighter he once was. He has always had trouble in close fights and this bout stands to be just that. Strickland is the better athlete and bigger man. I also give him an edge in speed here. Strickland could very well get a stoppage, but he will deal with Court’s pressure with his jab and land the better strikes for the duration of the fight. Gold Play.

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Strickland will jab his way to victory, but given the opportunity, he can finish Court on both the feet and the mat. I’ve got him as a sub.

Jake Collier +206 vs Marcel Fortuna -230 

Collier just isn’t that good. Could he steal a win here? Possibly, but I really don’t think so. Fortuna hits pretty hard and Jake is very hittable and can be finished. Jake can also be taken down and Fortuna is more than capable of exploiting that issue. In fact, I expect him to. Gold Play.

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A submission, ground-based TKO, or vertical knockout are all on the table here. Play Fortuna.

Darren Stewart +191 vs Karl Robertson -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am considering tossing Robertson into my Bronze plays just because he comes from a vastly superior combat background. That being said, there is a lot to consider here and avoiding this fight certainly isn’t that bad of an idea. Bronze or No Play.

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I am putting Robertson into my lineup. He hits hard and should find success when trading with Stewart. Lesser knowns can grab you some points that aren’t expected. Let’s do that here.

 

1. Raphael Assuncao -321 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Sean Strickland -240 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Marcel Fortuna -230 

4. Marlon Moraes +105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Dustin Poirier +106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Matt Brown -327 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Junior Albini -315 

8. Nate Marquardt +252 

9. Nina Ansaroff +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Clay Guida -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Viviane Pereira +257 

12. Michel Quinones +160 

13. Karl Robertson -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Nate Marquardt +252 

2. Nina Ansaroff +170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Dustin Poirier +106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Michel Quinones +160 

5. Viviane Pereira +257 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Anthony Pettis/Dustin Poirier Total Rounds Under 2.5 +102 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both men can finish and have finishing skills on the mat or the feet. Pettis can end this fight inside the opening 5-7 minutes with a big kick or Poirier simply overwhelms him with offence over a slightly longer period. Either way, at plus money I will take a shot at the finish coming in the first half of the fight.

Matt Brown to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -105  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Diego’s durability isn’t what it use to be and fighting against bigger men could further show us that. Look for Brown to come out motivated to attack and back Diego up, battering him in the clinch. Brown is still on the fence about retiring so he will most likely want to prove to himself whether he still has it or not and go out on his shield.

Andrei Arlovski/Junior Albini Total Rounds Under 1.5 -163 

Albini to win by knockout and the Under are pretty close in value. By playing the Under, you keep both AA and Junior’s stopping power in your corner and the submission skills of Albini are also still live. AA usually fights 2 styles- either very aggressive that leads to a stoppage or a slow, cautious approach that drags things out. Let’s hope for the first scenario.

Nate Marquardt to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +650 

Of Nate’s last 4 wins, 3 have come by knockout. For Ferreira, 4 of his 6 losses have come by knockout including 3 in the UFC. I see the grappling skills of both men turning this fight into a striking battle and Nate has shown he can stop an opponent even when down on the cards. It only takes one and at this type of return its hard not to take a shot.

John Dodson/Marlon Moraes 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Michel Quinones/Sage Northcutt Fight Doesn’t go the Distance -160 

Sage is a flawed fighter, but he still hits very hard. His biggest flaw is his submission defence which could lead to a stoppage. I think Quinones’s aggressive striking attack will expose another weakness which will be his inability to deal with pressure on the feet. Either way, this one gets done before the judges get involved.

Jake Collier/Marcel Fortuna 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Darren Stewart/Karl Robertson 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White